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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2017年第4期10卷 306-311页

作者： li shuanglin CHEN Ying li Chen College of atmospheric sciences Chengdu University of Information and Technology Climate Change research Center and nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

The decadal variation of the intensity of the interannual opposite connection （seesaw） between the Somali and Australian cross-equatorial flows （CEFs） is investigated. During the period prior to the mid-1960s, and after the early-2000s, the intensity of the interannual seesaw connection is significantly weaker relative to the period between. Such interdecadal shifts in the interannual seesaw intensity bear a resemblance to the decadal shift in ENSO＇s strength, and can be further attributed to the phase transition of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO）. When the AMO is in a positive phase, the ENSO amplitude reduces and the seesaw strength becomes weakened, and vice *** historical simulation outputs of the CMIP5 models are used to verify the connection, and a similar result was obtained. Thus, the notion that the intensity of the interannual opposite connection （seesaw） between the CEFs is modulated by the AMO is robust.

关键词： Cross-equatorial flow ENSO Atlantic MultidecadalOscillation East Asiansummer rainfall

Future changes in compound drought events and associated population and GDP exposure in china based on CMIP6

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第3期17卷 25-31页

作者： Rufan Xue Bo Sun Wanling li Huixin li Botao Zhou Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory ZhuhaiChina nansen zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

相较于一种类型的干旱,几种类型的干旱同时发生的复合型干旱事件对人类社会造成的危害更加严重.本研究采用CMIP6资料,研究中国复合型干旱事件及其相关社会经济暴露度的未来变化.结果表明,西北北部,西南和华南地区复合型干旱事件频次,持... 详细信息

相较于一种类型的干旱,几种类型的干旱同时发生的复合型干旱事件对人类社会造成的危害更加严重.本研究采用CMIP6资料,研究中国复合型干旱事件及其相关社会经济暴露度的未来变化.结果表明,西北北部,西南和华南地区复合型干旱事件频次,持续时间和严重程度增加,而华北和东北地区则减少.复合型干旱事件的人口暴露度在长江流域南部大幅增加,在长江流域以北的东部大幅减少,其中气候和人口均对人口暴露度的变化有重要影响.由于GDP的快速增长,中国未来几乎所有地区复合型干旱事件的GDP暴露度增加,特别是在中国东部,GDP效应对GDP暴露度变化的相对贡献最大.

关键词：复合型干旱事件国际耦合模式比较计划人口暴露度 GDP暴露度相对贡献

The 2022 report of synergetic roadmap on carbon neutrality and clean air for china:Accelerating transition in key sectors

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Environmental Science and Ecotechnology 2024年第3期19卷 4-18页

作者： Yu Lei Zhicong Yin Xi Lu Qiang Zhang Jicheng Gong Bofeng Cai Cilan Cai Qimin Chai Huopo Chen Renjie Chen Shi Chen Wenhui Chen Jing Cheng Xiyuan Chi Hancheng Dai Xiangzhao Feng Guannan Geng Jianlin Hu Shan Hu Cunrui Huang Tiantian li Wei li Xiaomei li Jun liu Xin liu zhu liu Jinghui Ma Yue Qin Dan Tong Xuhui Wang Xuying Wang Rui Wu Qingyang Xiao Yang Xie Xiaolong Xu Tao Xue Haipeng Yu Da Zhang Ning Zhang Shaohui Zhang Shaojun Zhang Xian Zhang Xin Zhang Zengkai Zhang Bo Zheng Yixuan Zheng Jian Zhou Tong zhu Jinnan Wang Kebin He Center of Air Quality Simulation and System Analysis Chinese Academy of Environmental PlanningBeijing100041China Center for Carbon Neutrality Chinese Academy of Environmental PlanningBeijing100041China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China institute for Carbon Neutrality Tsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China State Key Joint Laboratory for Environment Simulation and Pollution Control College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering and Center for Environment and HealthPeking UniversityBeijing100871China National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International CooperationBeijing100035China nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China School of Public Health Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of HealthFudan UniversityShanghai200032China School of Economics and Management Beijing University of Chemical TechnologyBeijing100029China Department of Earth System Science University of CaliforniaIrvineCA92697USA National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China College of Environmental sciences and Engineering Peking UniversityBeijing100871China Policy research Center for Environment and Economy Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People's Republic of ChinaBeijing100029China Jiangsu Key Laboratory of atmospheric Environment Monitoring

china is now confronting the intertwined challenges of air pollution and climate *** the high synergies between air pollution abatement and climate change mitigation,the chinese government is actively promoting synergetic control of these two *** Synergetic Roadmap project was launched in 2021 to track and analyze the progress of synergetic control in china by developing and monitoring key *** Synergetic Roadmap 2022 report is the first annual update,featuring 20 indicators across five aspects:synergetic governance system and practices,progress in structural transition,air pollution and associated weather-climate interactions,sources,sinks,and mitigation pathway of atmospheric composition,and health impacts and benefits of coordinated *** to the comprehensive review presented in the 2021 report,the Synergetic Roadmap 2022 report places particular emphasis on progress in 2021 with highlights on actions in key sectors and the relevant *** milestones include the proportion of non-fossil power generation capacity surpassing coal-fired capacity for the first time,a decline in the production of crude steel and cement after years of growth,and the surging penetration of electric ***,in 2022,china issued the first national policy that synergizes abatements of pollution and carbon emissions,marking a new era for china's pollution-carbon *** changes highlight china's efforts to reshape its energy,economic,and transportation structures to meet the demand for synergetic control and sustainable ***,the country has witnessed a slowdown in carbon emission growth,improved air quality,and increased health benefits in recent years.

关键词： Synergetic roadmap Carbon neutrality Clean air

Performance of the Wind Farm Parameterization Scheme Coupled with the Weather research and Forecasting Model under Multiple Resolution Regimes for Simulating an Onshore Wind Farm

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2019年第2期36卷 119-132页

作者： Rajabu J.MANGARA Zhenhai GUO shuanglin li State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of chinese academy of sciences nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

We use the Wind Farm Parameterization(WFP) scheme coupled with the Weather research and Forecasting model under multiple resolution regimes to simulate turbulent wake dynamics generated by a real onshore wind farm and their influence at the local meteorological scale. The model outputs are compared with earlier modeling and observation studies. It is found that higher vertical and horizontal resolutions have great impacts on the simulated wake flow dynamics. The corresponding wind speed deficit and turbulent kinetic energy results match well with previous studies. In addition, the effect of horizontal resolution on near-surface meteorology is significantly higher than that of vertical resolution. The wake flow field extends from the start of the wind farm to downstream within 10 km, where the wind speed deficit may exceed 4%. For a height of 150 m or at a distance of about 25 km downstream, the wind speed deficit is around 2%. This indicates that, at a distance of more than 25 km downstream, the impact of the wind turbines can be ignored. Analysis of near-surface meteorology indicates a night and early morning warming near the surface, and increase in near-surface water vapor mixing ratio with decreasing surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. During daytime, a slight cooling near the surface and decrease in the near-surface water vapor mixing ratio with increasing surface sensible and latent heat fluxes is noticed over the wind farm area.

关键词： upstream downstream wind farm impact Wind Farm Parameterization scheme wake flow dynamics

Polar Vortex Response to Pacific Ocean Warming and Its Additive Nonlinearity with the Indian Ocean

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2010年第6期3卷 303-307页

作者： li shuanglin nansen-zhu international research centre and Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

A previous modeling study about Pacific Ocean warming derived polar vortex response signals, by subtracting those in the Indian Ocean warming experiments from those in the Indo-Pacific. This approach questions the resemblance of such an indirectly derived response to one directly forced by Pacific Ocean warming. This is relevant to the additive nonlinearity of atmospheric responses to separated Indian and Pacific Ocean forcing. In the present study, an additional set of ensemble experiments are performed by prescribing isolated SST forcing in the tropical Pacific Ocean to address this issue. The results suggest a qualitative resemblance between responses in the derived and additional experiments. Thus, previous findings about the impact of Indian and Pacific Ocean wanning are robust. This study has important implications for future climate change projections, considering the non-unanimous warming rates in tropical oceans in the 21st century. Nevertheless, a comparison of present direct-forced experiments with previous indirect-forced experiments suggests a significant additive nonlinearity between the Indian and Pacific Ocean warmings. Further diagnosis suggests that the nonlinearity may originate from the thermodynamic processes over the tropics.

关键词： tropical Pacific Ocean warming northern and southern polar vortex atmospheric general circulation model additive nonlinearity

Preface to the Special Topic on Ocean, Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Climate:In Remembrance of Professor Yongqi GAO's Key Contributions

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1463-1464页

作者： Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE Fei li Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerkenes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen 5007Norway nansen-zhu international research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

This special issue commemorates the life work of Prof. Yongqi GAO who passed away in July 2021, his time cut short by illness. He had many great achievements, but still much more to contribute. The seven articles in this special issue are from research areas where he contributed, and they illustrate how his close colleagues are continuing his work.

关键词： Ice Hemisphere Climate

Lead-Lag Connection of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) with East Asian Surface Air Temperatures in Instrumental Records

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2013年第3期6卷 138-143页

作者： li shuanglin LUO Fei-Fei Climate Change research Center and nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences

The authors analyzed the lead-lag connection of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) with East Asian surface air temperatures (EATs) using instrumental records, and compared the results with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The maximum correlation was found when EATs led the AMO by five to seven years (with a correlation coefficient of 0.72, whereas the correlation coefficient was 0.91 when the AMO led EATs by 24-28 years). This is different from the PDO, which mostly correlated with EATs when the PDO led EATs by 13-15 years (with a correlation coefficient of 0.67, whereas the correlation coefficient was 0.76 when EATs led the PDO by 24-26 years). The PDO led the AMO by 19-21 years (with a correlation coefficient of 0.71, whereas the correlation coefficient was 0.84 when the AMO led the PDO by 16-18 years). These results support a previous understanding that EATs positively correlate with the AMO, and imply that the observed East Asian warming trend may have been slowing down since the early 2010s.

关键词： EATs AMO PDO instrumental records

Arctic Oscillation Responses to Black Carbon Aerosols Emitted from Major Regions

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2015年第4期8卷 226-232页

作者： WAN Jiang-Hua li shuanglin nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of chinese academy of sciences

The responses of the Arctic Oscillation(AO) to global black carbon(BC) and BC emitted from major regions were compared using the atmospheric general circulation model Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory(GFDL) atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM) atmospheric Model version 2.1(AM2.1). The results indicated that global BC could induce positive-phase AO responses, characterized by negative responses over the polar cap on 500 h Pa height fields, and zonal mean sea level pressure(SLP) decreasing while zonal wind increasing at 60°, with the opposite responses over midlatitudes. The AO indices distribution also shifted towards positive values. East Asian BC had similar impacts to that of global BC, while the responses to European BC were of opposite sign. South Asian BC and North American BC did not affect the AO significantly. Based on a simple linear assumption, we roughly estimated that the global BC emission increase could explain approximately 5% of the observed positive AO trend of +0.32 per decade during 1960 to 2000.

关键词： black carbon Arctic Oscillation linear trend

A New Approach for Classifying Two Types of El Nio Events

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2012年第5期5卷 414-419页

作者： li shuanglin WANG Qin nansen-zhu international research centre and Climate Change research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Acad-. emy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Chengdu University of lnformation Technology Chengdu 610225 China

In recent decades, the typical E1 Nifio events with the warmest SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific have become less common, and a different of E1 Nifio with the wannest SSTs in the central the east and west by cooler Pacific, which is flanked on SSTs, has become more frequent. The more recent type of E1 Nifio was referred to as central Pacific E1 Nifio, warm pool E1 Nifio, or dateline E1 Nifio, or the E1 Nifio Modoki. Central Pacific E1 Nifio links to a different tropical-to-extratropical teleconnection and exerts different impacts on climate, and several clas- sification approaches have been proposed. In this study, a new classification approach is proposed, which is based on the linear combination （sum or difference） of the two leading Empirical Orthogonal Functions （EOFs） of tropi- cal Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA）, and the typical E1 Nifio index （TENI） and the central E1 Nifio index （CENI） are able to be derived by projecting the observed SSTA onto these combinations. This classification not only reflects the characteristics of non-orthogonality between the two types of events but also yields one period peaking at approximate two to seven years. In particular, this classification can distin- guish the different impacts of the two types of events on rainfall in the following summer in East china. The typi- cal E1 Nifio events tend to induce intensified rainfall in the Yangtze River valley, whereas the central Pacific El Nifio tends to induce intensified rainfall in the Huaihe River valley. Thus, the present approach may be appropriate for studying the impact of different types of E1 Nifio on the East Asian climate.

关键词： typical E1 Nifio central E1 Nifio classifica-tion summer rainfall in eastern china

Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE Ke FAN Huijun WANG Fei li Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes centre for Climate research Bergen 5007Norway nansen-zhu international research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence