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Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1539-1558页

作者： Yanxin ZHENG shuanglin li Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE lingling SUO Department of atmospheric Science CMA-CUG Joint Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological HazardsChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China institute of atmospheric physics and Climate Change research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory Yichang 443099China Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes centre for Climate research Bergen 5007Norway nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), china. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

关键词： triple-nested downscaling Three Gorges Reservoir area consecutive rainfall events geological hazards projection

Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA lin WANG Kexin li Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan li Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG Fangxing FAN Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao zhu Tianjun ZHOU Jiang zhu international Center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China nansen-zhu international research centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Monsoon System research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the institute of atmospheric physics at the chinese academy of sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in china will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

The Influence of Regional SSTs on the Interdecadal Shift of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2013年第2期30卷 330-340页

作者： FU Jianjian li shuanglin Climate Changes research Center and nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029

East Asia has experienced a significant interdecadal climate shift since the late 1970s. This shift was accompanied by a decadal change of global SST. Previous studies have suggested that the decadal shift of global SST background status played a substantial role in such a climatic shift. However, the individual roles of different regional SSTs remain unclear. In this study, we investigated these roles using ensemble experiments of an atmospheric general circulation model, GFDL （Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory） AM2. Two kinds of ensembles were performed. The first was a control ensemble in which the model was driven with the observed climatological SSTs. The second was an experimental ensemble in which the model was driven with the observed climatological SSTs plus interdecadal SST background shifts in separate ocean regions. The results suggest that the SST shift in the tropics exerted more important influence than those in the extratropics, although the latter contribute to the shift modestly. The variations of summer monsoonal circulation systems, including the South Asian High, the West Pacific Subtropical High, and the lower-level air flow, were analyzed. The results show that, in comparison with those induced by extratropical SSTs, the shifts induced by tropical SSTs bear more similarity to the observations and to the simulations with global SSTs prescribed. In particular, the observed SST shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean, rather than the Indian Ocean, contributed significantly to the shift of East Asian summer monsoon since the 1970s.

关键词： East Asian summer monsoon interdecadal shift SST AGCM

Quantifying the Response Strength of the Southern Stratospheric Polar Vortex to Indian Ocean Warming in Austral Summer

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2014年第2期31卷 492-503页

作者： li shuanglin CHEN Xiaoting Climate Change research Center and nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Shaanxi Provincial Meteorological Observatory

A previous multiple-AGCM study suggested that Indian Ocean Warming （IOW） tends to warm and weaken the southern polar *** an impact is robust because of a qualitative consistency among the five AGCMs ***,a significant difference exists in the modeled strengths,particularly in the stratosphere,with those in three of the AGCMs （CCM3,CAM3,and GFS） being four to five times as strong as those in the two other models （GFDL AM2,ECHAM5）.As to which case reflects reality is an important issue not only for quantifying the role of tropical ocean warming in the recent modest recovery of the ozone hole over the Antarctic,but also for projecting its future *** issue is addressed in the present study through comparing the models＇ climatological mean states and intrinsic variability,particularly those influencing tropospheric signals to propagate upward and reach the *** results suggest that differences in intrinsic variability of model atmospheres provide implications for the *** on a comparison with observations,it is speculated that the impact in the real world may be closer to the modest one simulated by GFDL AM2 and ECHAM5,rather than the strong one simulated by the three other models （CCM3,CAM3 and GFS）.In particular,IOW during the past 50 years may have dynamically induced a 1.0℃ warming in the polar lower stratosphere （～100 hPa）,which canceled a fraction of radiative cooling due to ozone depletion.

关键词： southern hemispheric polar vortex SST atmospheric general circulation models ozone depletion

An Approach for Improving Short-Term Prediction of Summer Rainfall over North china by Decomposing Interannual and Decadal Variability

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2014年第2期31卷 435-448页

作者： HAN Leqiong li shuanglin liU Na Climate Change research Center and nansen-zhu international research centre institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Chengdu University of Information Technology State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

A statistical downscaling approach was developed to improve seasonal-to-interannual prediction of summer rainfall over North china by considering the effect of decadal variability based on observational datasets and dynamical model *** predictands and predictors were first decomposed into interannual and decadal *** predictive equations were then built separately for the two distinct timescales by using multivariate linear regressions based on independent sample *** the interannual timescale,850-hPa meridional wind and 500-hPa geopotential heights from multiple dynamical models＇ hindcasts and SSTs from observational datasets were used to construct *** the decadal timescale,two well-known basin-scale SST decadal oscillation （the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation） indices were used as ***,the downscaled predictands were combined to represent the predicted/hindcasted total *** prediction was compared with the models＇ raw hindcasts and those from a similar approach but without timescale *** comparison to hindcasts from individual models or their multi-model ensemble mean,the skill of the present scheme was found to be significantly higher,with anomaly correlation coefficients increasing from nearly neutral to over 0.4 and with RMSE decreasing by up to 0.6 mm *** improvements were also seen in the station-based temporal correlation of the predictions with observed rainfall,with the coefficients ranging from-0.1 to 0.87,obviously higher than the models＇ raw hindcasted rainfall ***,the present approach exhibits a great advantage and may be appropriate for use in operational predictions.

关键词： summer rainfall short-term prediction decomposing downscaling

atmospheric responses over Asia to sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara seas in mid late winter and early spring:a perspective revealed from CMIP5 data

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Advances in Polar Science 2020年第1期31卷 55-63页

作者： HAN Zhe li shuanglin CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China nansen-zhu international research Center(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China china Univercity of Geosciences Wuhan 430074China

This study investigated atmospheric responses in mid late winter and early spring to sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara seas using regressions of the January March mean atmosphere on Barents and Kara sea ice area in November and *** atmospheric circulation responses were obtained from reanalysis data and multimodel ensemble results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,i.e.,sea ice anomalies are the dominant factor driving the overlying *** results showed that an Arctic Asia dipole structure,with opposite anomalies over the mid-latitudes of Asia and over the adjoining Arctic,appears to be the key atmospheric circulation anomaly influencing the East Asian climate in mid late winter and early spring.

关键词： winter atmospheric circulation Arctic Asia dipole sea ice loss Barents and Kara seas

Asymmetric Relationship between the Meridional Displacement of the Asian Westerly Jet and the Silk Road Pattern

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2018年第4期35卷 389-396页

作者： Xiaowei HONG Riyu LU shuanglin li Climate Change research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Department of atmospheric Science School of Environmental Studies China University of Geosciences Wuhan 430074 China

In previous work, a significant relationship was identified between the meridional displacement of the Asian westerly jet （JMD） and the Silk Road Pattern （SRP） in summer. The present study reveals that this relationship is robust in northward JMD years but absent in southward JMD years. In other words, the amplitude of the SRP increases with northward displacement of the jet but shows little change with southward displacement. Further analysis indicates that, in northward JMD years, the Rossby wave source （RWS） anomalies, which are primarily contributed by the planetary vortex stretching, are significantly stronger around the entrance of the Asian jet, i.e., the Mediterranean Sea-Caspian Sea area, with the spatial distribution being consistent with that related to the SRP. By contrast, in southward JMD years, the RWS anomalies are much weaker. Therefore, this study suggests that the RWS plays a crucial role in inducing the asymmetry of the JMD-SRP relationship. The results imply that climate anomalies may be stronger in strongly northward-displaced JMD years due to the concurrence of the JMD and SRP, and thus more attention should be paid to these years.

关键词： Asian westerly jet meridional displacement Silk Road Pattern asymmetric relation Rossby wave source

Comparative Analysis of the Mechanisms of Intensified Summer Warming over Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia since the Mid-1990s through a Process-based Decomposition Method

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2019年第12期36卷 1340-1354页

作者： Xueqian SUN shuanglin li Bo liU Climate Change research Center(CCRC) and Nansen-Zhu International Research CentreInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of atmospheric Science China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China College of Earth and Planetary Science University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Previous studies have found amplified warming over Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia in summer since the mid- 1990s relative to elsewhere on the Eurasian continent, but the cause of the amplification in these two regions remains unclear. In this study, we compared the individual contributions of influential factors for amplified warming over these two regions through a quantitative diagnostic analysis based on CFRAM (climate feedback-response analysis method). The changes in surface air temperature are decomposed into the partial changes due to radiative processes (including CO2 concentration, incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, surface albedo, water vapor content, ozone concentration, and clouds) and non-radiative processes (including surface sensible heat flux, surface latent heat flux, and dynamical processes). Our results suggest that the enhanced warming over these two regions is primarily attributable to changes in the radiative processes, which contributed 0.62 and 0.98 K to the region-averaged warming over Europe-West Asia (1.00 K) and Northeast Asia (1.02 K), respectively. Among the radiative processes, the main drivers were clouds, CO2 concentration, and water vapor content. The cloud term alone contributed to the mean amplitude of warming by 0.40 and 0.85 K in Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia, respectively. In comparison, the non-radiative processes made a much weaker contribution due to the combined impact of surface sensible heat flux, surface latent heat flux, and dynamical processes, accounting for only 0.38 K for the warming in Europe-West Asia and 0.05 K for the warming in Northeast Asia. The resemblance between the influential factors for the amplified warming in these two separate regions implies a common dynamical origin. Thus, this validates the possibility that they originate from the Silk Road pattern.

关键词： CFRAM(climate feedback-response analysis method) amplified summer warming radiative processes nonradiative processes

Projecting the Summer Climate of china's Mainland in the Middle 21st Century: Will the Droughts in North china Persist?

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2008年第1期1卷 12-17页

作者： li shuanglin nansen-zhu international research centre （NZC） Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Since no consensus has been reached in previous studies about how the summer climate in china will evolve in the first half of the 21st century, this issue is addressed here through sensitivity experiments by forcing an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM）, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory （GFDL）＇s atmospheric Model Version 2.0 （AM2） with projected sea surface temperature （SST） trend. A total of two SST trends from the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change （IPCC） Special Report on Emissions Scenario （SRES） AlB are used. The two trends are from two coupled climate system models, the National Center for atmospheric research （NCAR） Community Climate System Model Version 3.0 （CCSM3） and the GFDL Climate Model Version 2.0 （CM2）, respectively. Results consistently suggest a substantial warming and drying trend over much of china, with a surface air temperature increase of 1.0-2.0℃ and a 10%-20% decrease in rainfall. Exceptions are the areas from northwestern china to western North china as well as the southern Tibetan Plateau, which are projected to be wetter with a rainfall anomaly percentage increase of 10%-50%. The drying in eastern North china has not been documented to date but appears to be reasonable. Physically, it is attributed to anomalous northeasterly winds at the rear of a low-level cyclone over the South china Sea, the Philippines and the subtropical western North Pacific. These conditions, which govern the climate of eastern china, are forced by the northward shift of convection over warm waters due to additional warming.

关键词： future climate change in china AGCM SST projection