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近2.年京津冀陆地水储量变化特征及其影响因子分析

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气候与环境研究 2024年第5期29卷 519-533页

作者：韩云环马柱国李明星河北经贸大学统计与数学学院石家庄050061 中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049

水资源严重短缺是京津冀地区面临的重要生态环境问题之一,制约着区域协同发展战略的实施。陆地水储量变化深刻影响着水资源的分布和供给,因此,深入认识陆地水储量及其组分的变化特征和原因可以为完善区域水资源管理、实现水资源优化配... 详细信息

水资源严重短缺是京津冀地区面临的重要生态环境问题之一,制约着区域协同发展战略的实施。陆地水储量变化深刻影响着水资源的分布和供给,因此,深入认识陆地水储量及其组分的变化特征和原因可以为完善区域水资源管理、实现水资源优化配置提供科学依据,对区域水资源可持续利用具有重要意义。目前,京津冀地区水储量和其组分的变化,以及自然和人为因素的影响特征尚不清楚。本文采用GRACE(Gravity Recovery and climate Experiment)卫星重力观测数据和全球陆面数据同化系统GLDAS(Global Land Data Assimilation System)数据分析了近2.年(2.02.2.2.年)年陆地水储量及其组分的时空变化特征,并结合降水、蒸散发、径流和人类活动用水数据从水循环角度分析了水储量变化的影响因素。结果表明:(1)2.02.2.2.年,北京、天津、河北的陆地水储量(趋势系数分别为-0.71、-0.84、-1.2. cm/a)和地下水储量(趋势系数分别为-1.12.-1.01、-1.55 cm/a)都呈显著减少趋势,而土壤水储量呈现显著增加趋势。(2.北京、天津和河北地下水储量的变化与各自陆地水储量的变化高度一致,相关系数均高达0.8及以上,加之其它分量增加的相反变化趋势,表明地下水储量显著下降是京津冀地区陆地水储量减少的主要原因。(3)3个省/市降水增加对陆地水储量产生正向贡献,蒸散发和径流增加对陆地水储量产生负向贡献。气候/水文因子的综合作用使北京和天津的陆地水储量增加,却造成河北的陆地水储量减少。北京、天津、河北气候变化的贡献率分别为2..60%、33.95%和2..99%,人类活动的贡献率分别为76.40%、66.05%和73.01%,陆地水储量减少主要是人类活动的影响。(4)地下水储量的显著减少是人为活动大量开采地下水的直接结果,表明加强人为用水的管理是京津冀地区水资源可持续利用的关键环节。本文研究结果可为科学掌握京津冀的水储量时空变化规律及影响机制提供数据支撑,为该区域水资源有效管理提供理论依据。

关键词：陆地水储量组分变化特征影响因子京津冀地区

Has the stilling of the surface wind speed ended in china?

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Science china Earth Sciences 2021年第7期64卷 1036-1049页

作者： Qing YANG mingxing li Ziqing ZU {2. ma key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment research for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100092China University of chinese academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China key laboratory of {2.rine Hazards Forecasting National Marine Environmental Forecasting CenterMinistry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China

Since the 1960 s,the global land surface wind speed(SWS)has significantly weakened,a phenomenon known as global terrestrial *** latest research found that the stilling reversed around 2.10,and since then the global SWS has been ***,there is still a lack of syste{2.tic quantitative analysis in *** analyzed the transition and regional differences in the long-term trends of the SWS in china based on observational SWS data from 1971 to *** results showed that annual mean SWS in china underwent a reversal from a continuously weakening trend to a significantly strengthening trend around 2.14 and implying that stilling {2.y have ended in *** reversal had obvious regional and seasonal *** Northeast china,Western Xinjiang as well as on the Tibetan Plateau,the years with both annual and seasonal mean SWS changing from weakening to strengthening were around 2.13/2.14,1993.1994,and ***,in the west of North china,SWS showed an obviously strengthening trend only in autumn and winter after 2.07;while only autumn mean SWS showed a strengthening trend after 2.12.in South *** should be noted that stilling is ongoing in the eastern and southern coastal areas,North china and eastern Xinjiang.

关键词： Surface wind speed Stilling Reversal Strengthening trend

Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in {2.

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Science china Earth Sciences 2017年第4期60卷 745-760页

作者： YANG Qing li mingxing ZHENG ZiYan {2. zhuguo key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The definition of a drought index is the foundation of drought ***,because of the complexity of drought,there is no a unified drought index appropriate for different drought types and objects at the same ***,it is crucial to determine the regional applicability of various drought *** terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery And {2. Experiment,and the observed soil moisture and streamflow in china,we evaluated the regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices:the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI),modified PDSI(PDSI_CN) based on observations in china,self-calibrating PDSI(scPDSI),Surface Wetness Index(SWI),Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),and soil moisture simulations conducted using the community land model driven by observed atmospheric forcing(CLM3.5/ObsFC).The results showed that the scPDSI is most appropriate for ***,it should be noted that the scPDSI reduces the value range slightly compared with the PDSI and PDSI_CN;thus,the classification of dry and wet conditions should be adjusted *** problems might exist when using the PDSI and PDSI_CN in humid and arid areas because of the unsuitability of *** SPI and SPEI are more appropriate for humid areas than arid and semiarid *** is because contributions of temperature variation to drought are neglected in the SPI,but overestimated in the SPEI,when potential evapotranspiration is estimated by the Thornthwaite method in these ***,the SPI and SPEI tend to induce wetter and drier results,*** CLM3.5/ObsFC is suitable for china before 2.00,but not for arid and semiarid areas after *** with other drought indices,the SWI shows similar interannual and decadal change characteristics in detecting annual dry/wet *** the long-term trends of drought areas in china detected by these seven

关键词： Surface sensible heating Tibetan-Iranian Plateau coupling system(TIPS) Water vapor convergence Upper troposphere and lower stratosphere circulation Cooling center at tropopause

Modeling spatial and temporal variations in soil moisture in china

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chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第17期56卷 1809-1820页

作者： li mingxing {2. zhuguo NIU Guo-Yue key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment for east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Biosphere 2.Earth Science University of Arizona Tucson 85738 Arizona USA

On the basis of station observations,an atmospheric field (ObsFC) was constructed for the Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5).The model (CLM3.5 driven with ObsFC,hereafter referred as to CLM3.5/ObsFC) was used to simulate soil moisture (SM) from 1951 to 2.08 in *** resulting SM was compared with in situ observations,remote-sensing data and estimations made by various land models,indicating that CLM3.5/ObsFC is capable of reproducing the temporospatial characteristics and long-term variation trends of SM over *** an in situ observation-based forcing field improves the simulation of *** of SM simulated using CLM3.5/ObsFC shows that the overall spatial pattern of SM was characterized by a gradually decreasing and alternating distribution of arid-humid zones from the southeast to *** averaged SM was the driest over southern Xinjiang Province and western Inner Mongolia,while the most humid regions were located over the Northeast Plain,Jianghuai region and the Yangtze River *** long-term variation trends of SM were generally characterized by increases in arid and humid regions and decreases in semiarid ***,the variation was relatively intense from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s in the arid *** time series was more stable in the humid region except for a period near 1970 and after the year 2.03.A downward trend was most prominent in the semiarid region from the 1990s to the end of the time *** 1951-2.08,in the arid,semiarid and humid regions,the SM volume percentage changed by 2.35,-1.2. and 0.08,*** variation trends and intensity remarkably differed among the different regions,with the most notable changes being over the arid and semiarid regions north of 35°N.

关键词：土壤水分空间格局时空变化中国半干旱地区长期变化趋势建模原位观测

Assessment of an Evapotranspiration Deficit Drought Index in Relation to Impacts on Ecosystems

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2019年第11期36卷 1273-1287页

作者： Xia ZHANG mingxing li {2. ma Qing YANG Meixia LV Robin Clark key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment research for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of chinese academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX 1 3PB UK

Ecosystems have increasingly been subject to the challenge of heavy drought under global warming. To quantitatively evaluate the impacts of drought on ecosystems, it is necessary to develop a drought index that can sensitively depict the response of vegetation to drought evolution at a biological time scale. For the ability of direct connection between climate and ecosystem by deficit of evapotranspiration, in the present study, a drought index was defined based on standardized evapotranspiration deficit (SEDI), according to the difference between actual and potential evapotranspiration, to meet the need for highlighting drought impacts on ecological processes. Comparisons with traditional indices show that SEDI can reasonably detect droughts and climatic dry and wet transitions, especially at a monthly time scale, and can also regenerate long-term trends. Moreover, SEDI can more sensitively capture the biological changes of ecosystems in response to the dynamics of drought intensity, compared with the indices of precipitation and temperature. SEDI is more practical than the precipitation and temperature indices to highlight signals of biological effects in climate droughts. Hence, it has potential for use in assessments of climate change and its impact on ecosystems.

关键词： evapotranspiration drought index vegetation ecosystem leaf area index climate change

中国北方干旱半干旱区植被对气候变化和人类活动的响应

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大气科学 2024年第3期48卷 859-874页

作者：李卓忆杨庆马柱国陈亮张立祯中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049 中国农业大学资源与环境学院北京100193

干旱半干旱区是我国的生态环境脆弱的地区之一。伴随着气候变化和人类活动的加剧,近几十年该区域植被正发生着显著的变化,然而,至今还缺乏对植被变化原因的足够认识。本文基于GLASS(Global Land Surface Satellite)叶面积指数(Leaf Area... 详细信息

干旱半干旱区是我国的生态环境脆弱的地区之一。伴随着气候变化和人类活动的加剧,近几十年该区域植被正发生着显著的变化,然而,至今还缺乏对植被变化原因的足够认识。本文基于GLASS(Global Land Surface Satellite)叶面积指数(Leaf Area Index,简称LAI)、CRU(climate {2. Unit)气温和降水数据,采用相关系数法及残差分析法研究了1982.2.17年中国干旱半干旱区植被的时空变化特征,并分析了气温、降水及人类活动对LAI变化的相对贡献。结果发现:(1)干旱半干旱区植被显著改善,仅局部地区有所退化,且植被改善在夏季最为明显;(2.在植被变化中,长期趋势变化和年际变化的影响因子不同,前者受气候变暖影响,而后者则主要与降水的波动密切相关;(3)春、夏季气温和夏季降水对干旱半干旱地区植被生长的同季节影响显著,而在新疆北部和内蒙中部地区,植被对气候因子有季节尺度的滞后响应;(4)植被变化受到人类活动和气候变化的共同作用,不同地区植被变化的主导因子不同。在植被改善地区,气候因子的贡献率约为59%,人类活动的贡献率约为41%;而植被退化地区,气候因子的贡献率约为-51%,人类活动贡献率约为-49%。总的来说,近几十年来我国北方干旱半干旱区植被已发生了显著变化,该变化是气温、降水和人类活动多因素综合影响的结果。

关键词：干旱半干旱区植被变化气温降水人类活动

Comparisons of Simulations of Soil Moisture Variations in the Yellow River Basin Driven by Various atmospheric Forcing Data Sets

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2010年第6期27卷 1289-1302页

作者：李明星马柱国 key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment research for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of chinese {2. of Sciences

Based on station observations, The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis （ERA40）, the National Centers for environmental Prediction/National Center for atmospheric {2. （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis and Princeton University＇s global meteorological forcing data set （Princeton）, four atmospheric forcing fields were constructed for use in driving the Community Land Model version 3.5 （CLM3.5）. Simulated soil moisture content throughout the period 1951-2.00 in the Yellow River basin was validated via comparison with corresponding observations in the upper, middle, and lower reaches. The results show that CLM3.5 is capable of reproducing not only the characteristics of intra-annual and annual variations of soil moisture, but also long-term variation trends, with different statistical significance in the correlations between the observations and simulations from different forcing fields in various reaches. The simulations modeled with station-based atmospheric forcing fields are the most consistent with observed soil moisture, and the simulations based on the Princeton data set are the second best, on average. The simulations from ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR are close to each other in quality, but comparatively worse to the other sources of forcing information that were evaluated. Regionally, simulations are most consistent with observations in the lower reaches and less so in the upper reaches, with the middle reaches in between. In addition, the soil moisture simulated by CLM3.5 is systematically greater than the observations in the Yellow River basin. Comparisons between the simulations by CLM3.5 and CLM3.0 indicate that simulation errors are primarily caused by deficiencies within CLM3.5 and are also associated with the quality of atmospheric forcing field applied.

关键词： soil moisture CLM3.5 multiple forcing fields the Yellow River basin

Causes of a Typical Southern Flood and Northern Drought Event in 2.15 over eastern china

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 2092-2107,I0014,I0015页

作者： Zhuoyuan li Qing YANG Dian YUAN Er LU zhuguo {2. key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment research for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of chinese academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Xiongan institute of Innovation Chinese Academy of SciencesXiongan New Area 071800China

The spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies over {2.ern china often shows a dipole pattern,with anti-phased precipitation anomalies between southern china and northern china,known as the“southern floo... 详细信息

The spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies over eastern china often shows a dipole pattern,with anti-phased precipitation anomalies between southern china and northern china,known as the“southern flooding and northern drought”(SF-ND)*** 2015,china experienced heavy rainfall in the south and the worst drought since 1979 in the north,which caused huge social and economic *** reanalysis data,the atmospheric circulation anomalies and possible mechanisms related to the summer precipitation anomalies in 2015 were *** results showed that both El Niño and certain atmospheric teleconnections,including the Pacific Japan/east asia Pacific(PJ/EAP),Eurasia pattern(EU),British–Baikal Corridor pattern(BBC),and Silk Road mode(SR),contributed to the dipole pattern of precipitation *** combination of these factors caused a southwards shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and a weakening of the east asian summer ***,it was difficult for the monsoon front and associated rain band to migrate northwards,which meant that less precipitation occurred in northern china while more precipitation occurred in southern *** resulted in the SF-ND ***,further analysis revealed that global sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)or sea-ice anomalies were key to stimulating these atmospheric teleconnections.

关键词： drought flood El Niño atmospheric teleconnection sea surface temperature anomaly

Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2.2.?

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua ma lin WANG Kexin li Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan li Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG Fangxing FAN Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao ZHU Tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU International Center for climate and environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State key laboratory of Numerical Mode{2.ng for atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Monsoon System research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS key Lab of Regional climate-{2. for temperate east asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2.2.,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2.2./2. boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the institute of atmospheric physics at the {2. academy of Sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2.3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in east asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal {12. variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2.2./2. winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in china will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST