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近2.年京津冀陆地水储量变化特征及其影响因子分析

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气候与环境研究 2024年第5期29卷 519-533页

作者：韩云环马柱国李明星河北经贸大学统计与数学学院石家庄050061 中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049

水资源严重短缺是京津冀地区面临的重要生态环境问题之一,制约着区域协同发展战略的实施。陆地水储量变化深刻影响着水资源的分布和供给,因此,深入认识陆地水储量及其组分的变化特征和原因可以为完善区域水资源管理、实现水资源优化配... 详细信息

水资源严重短缺是京津冀地区面临的重要生态环境问题之一,制约着区域协同发展战略的实施。陆地水储量变化深刻影响着水资源的分布和供给,因此,深入认识陆地水储量及其组分的变化特征和原因可以为完善区域水资源管理、实现水资源优化配置提供科学依据,对区域水资源可持续利用具有重要意义。目前,京津冀地区水储量和其组分的变化,以及自然和人为因素的影响特征尚不清楚。本文采用GRACE(Gravity Recovery and climate Experiment)卫星重力观测数据和全球陆面数据同化系统GLDAS(Global Land Data Assimilation System)数据分析了近2.年(2.02.2.2.年)年陆地水储量及其组分的时空变化特征,并结合降水、蒸散发、径流和人类活动用水数据从水循环角度分析了水储量变化的影响因素。结果表明:(1)2.02.2.2.年,北京、天津、河北的陆地水储量(趋势系数分别为-0.71、-0.84、-1.2. cm/a)和地下水储量(趋势系数分别为-1.12.-1.01、-1.55 cm/a)都呈显著减少趋势,而土壤水储量呈现显著增加趋势。(2.北京、天津和河北地下水储量的变化与各自陆地水储量的变化高度一致,相关系数均高达0.8及以上,加之其它分量增加的相反变化趋势,表明地下水储量显著下降是京津冀地区陆地水储量减少的主要原因。(3)3个省/市降水增加对陆地水储量产生正向贡献,蒸散发和径流增加对陆地水储量产生负向贡献。气候/水文因子的综合作用使北京和天津的陆地水储量增加,却造成河北的陆地水储量减少。北京、天津、河北气候变化的贡献率分别为2..60%、33.95%和2..99%,人类活动的贡献率分别为76.40%、66.05%和73.01%,陆地水储量减少主要是人类活动的影响。(4)地下水储量的显著减少是人为活动大量开采地下水的直接结果,表明加强人为用水的管理是京津冀地区水资源可持续利用的关键环节。本文研究结果可为科学掌握京津冀的水储量时空变化规律及影响机制提供数据支撑,为该区域水资源有效管理提供理论依据。

关键词：陆地水储量组分变化特征影响因子京津冀地区

Has the stilling of the surface wind speed ended in china?

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Science china Earth sciences 2021年第7期64卷 1036-1049页

作者： Qing YANG mingxing li Ziqing ZU {2. ma key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment research for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100092China University of chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China key laboratory of {2.rine Hazards Forecasting National Marine Environmental Forecasting CenterMinistry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China

Since the 1960 s,the global land surface wind speed(SWS)has significantly weakened,a phenomenon known as global terrestrial *** latest research found that the stilling reversed around 2.10,and since then the global SWS has been ***,there is still a lack of syste{2.tic quantitative analysis in *** analyzed the transition and regional differences in the long-term trends of the SWS in china based on observational SWS data from 1971 to *** results showed that annual mean SWS in china underwent a reversal from a continuously weakening trend to a significantly strengthening trend around 2.14 and implying that stilling {2.y have ended in *** reversal had obvious regional and seasonal *** Northeast china,Western Xinjiang as well as on the Tibetan Plateau,the years with both annual and seasonal mean SWS changing from weakening to strengthening were around 2.13/2.14,1993/1994,and ***,in the west of North china,SWS showed an obviously strengthening trend only in autumn and winter after 2.07;while only autumn mean SWS showed a strengthening trend after 2.12.in South *** should be noted that stilling is ongoing in the eastern and southern coastal areas,North china and eastern Xinjiang.

关键词： Surface wind speed Stilling Reversal Strengthening trend

Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in {2.

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Science china Earth sciences 2017年第4期60卷 745-760页

作者： YANG Qing li mingxing ZHENG ZiYan {2. zhuguo key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The definition of a drought index is the foundation of drought ***,because of the complexity of drought,there is no a unified drought index appropriate for different drought types and objects at the same ***,it is crucial to determine the regional applicability of various drought *** terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery And {2. Experiment,and the observed soil moisture and streamflow in china,we evaluated the regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices:the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI),modified PDSI(PDSI_CN) based on observations in china,self-calibrating PDSI(scPDSI),Surface Wetness Index(SWI),Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),and soil moisture simulations conducted using the community land model driven by observed atmospheric forcing(CLM3.5/ObsFC).The results showed that the scPDSI is most appropriate for ***,it should be noted that the scPDSI reduces the value range slightly compared with the PDSI and PDSI_CN;thus,the classification of dry and wet conditions should be adjusted *** problems might exist when using the PDSI and PDSI_CN in humid and arid areas because of the unsuitability of *** SPI and SPEI are more appropriate for humid areas than arid and semiarid *** is because contributions of temperature variation to drought are neglected in the SPI,but overestimated in the SPEI,when potential evapotranspiration is estimated by the Thornthwaite method in these ***,the SPI and SPEI tend to induce wetter and drier results,*** CLM3.5/ObsFC is suitable for china before 2.00,but not for arid and semiarid areas after *** with other drought indices,the SWI shows similar interannual and decadal change characteristics in detecting annual dry/wet *** the long-term trends of drought areas in china detected by these seven

关键词： Surface sensible heating Tibetan-Iranian Plateau coupling system(TIPS) Water vapor convergence Upper troposphere and lower stratosphere circulation Cooling center at tropopause

Assessment of an Evapotranspiration Deficit Drought Index in Relation to Impacts on Ecosystems

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2019年第11期36卷 1273-1287页

作者： Xia ZHANG mingxing li {2. ma Qing YANG Meixia LV Robin Clark key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment research for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX 1 3PB UK

Ecosystems have increasingly been subject to the challenge of heavy drought under global warming. To quantitatively evaluate the impacts of drought on ecosystems, it is necessary to develop a drought index that can sensitively depict the response of vegetation to drought evolution at a biological time scale. For the ability of direct connection between climate and ecosystem by deficit of evapotranspiration, in the present study, a drought index was defined based on standardized evapotranspiration deficit (SEDI), according to the difference between actual and potential evapotranspiration, to meet the need for highlighting drought impacts on ecological processes. Comparisons with traditional indices show that SEDI can reasonably detect droughts and climatic dry and wet transitions, especially at a monthly time scale, and can also regenerate long-term trends. Moreover, SEDI can more sensitively capture the biological changes of ecosystems in response to the dynamics of drought intensity, compared with the indices of precipitation and temperature. SEDI is more practical than the precipitation and temperature indices to highlight signals of biological effects in climate droughts. Hence, it has potential for use in assessments of climate change and its impact on ecosystems.

关键词： evapotranspiration drought index vegetation ecosystem leaf area index climate change

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近30年全球干旱半干旱区的蒸散变化特征

大气科学 2018年第2期42卷 251-267页

作者：张霞李明星马柱国中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049

全球变暖加剧了气候系统能量和水分循环相互作用的变化,水分平衡变化导致极端旱涝事件频发。地表蒸散是能量水分循环的重要过程,是理解气候变化的关键环节。本文基于1982.2.11年FLUXNET-MTE观测资料和ERA-Interim再分析资料,分析了全球... 详细信息

全球变暖加剧了气候系统能量和水分循环相互作用的变化,水分平衡变化导致极端旱涝事件频发。地表蒸散是能量水分循环的重要过程,是理解气候变化的关键环节。本文基于1982.2.11年FLUXNET-MTE观测资料和ERA-Interim再分析资料,分析了全球干旱半干旱区蒸散的时空变化特征及典型区域的变幅、趋势和季节变化。结果表明:(1)干旱半干旱区多年平均蒸散量小于300 mm。冬季蒸散量最小,夏季最大且变率也最强。1990年代前后,干旱半干旱区蒸散发生了明显的年代际转变,暖季的年代际差异尤为明显。(2.近30年来,东半球干旱半干旱区蒸散量呈增加趋势,西半球呈减小趋势。典型区域来看,南非呈显著增加趋势[2..14 mm(10 a)-1],美国西南部呈显著减小趋势[-19.86 mm(10 a)-1];萨赫勒、中国北部和澳大利亚呈增加趋势,阿根廷及智利南部呈减小趋势。(3)蒸散变化与温度、降水的变化联系密切,三者具有相似的年循环变化,但三者间相关性在干旱半干旱区具有显著的差异性。

关键词：蒸散量 FLUXNET-MTE 观测资料 ERA-Interim 再分析资料区域对比

2.01~2.10年中国区域土地利用/覆盖变化对陆面过程影响的模拟研究

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气候与环境研究 2021年第1期26卷 75-90页

作者：韩云环马柱国李明星陈亮河北经贸大学数学与统计学学院石家庄050061 中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049

基于2.01年和2.10年中分辨率成像光谱仪MODIS(MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)土地覆盖数据,利用公共陆面模式(Community Land Model, CLM)模拟真实的土地利用/覆盖变化(Land Use/Cover Change, LUCC)对地表能量平衡和水分循环过程的影响。研究表明:1)在2.01~2.10年,中国LUCC最明显的区域位于干旱半干旱区过渡带、半干旱半湿润区过渡带和南方地区;中国区域荒漠减少0.92.,草地减少0.01%,农田增加0.77%,森林增加2.86%,植被覆盖度整体增加。2.在2.01年和2.10年两种土地利用/覆盖背景下,LUCC使大部分地区感热通量增加,植被蒸腾、蒸发潜热通量增加,土壤表面蒸发潜热通量减小。3)LUCC使大部分地区地表径流减小;中国西北东部、华北和东北地区土壤湿度减小,其他地区土壤湿度增加,仅干旱半干旱过渡带上的土壤湿度发生了显著变化。4)当典型过渡带区域由荒漠变为草地后,感热通量增加1.11 W m-2.潜热通量增加0.14 W m-2.冠层蒸腾和蒸发分别增加0.039 mm d-1、0.009 mm d-1。土壤湿度平均减小0.01 m3 m-3,且随深度增加变干更明显,这是由于根系吸收了较多深层土壤水分,以满足植被显著增加的蒸腾而产生的结果。当草地变为灌木时,其能量通量和水分循环的变化与上述结果类似。

关键词：陆面过程模型(CLM) 陆面过程土地利用/覆盖变化中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)

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黄河流域气候与水文变化的现状及思考

中国科学院院刊 2020年第1期35卷 52-60页

作者：马柱国符淙斌周天军严中伟李明星郑子彦陈亮吕美霞中国科学院大气物理研究所中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049 南京大学南京210093

黄河是中华民族的母亲河,孕育了博大精深的中华文明。同时,流域频发的水旱灾害也给黄河两岸的人民群众带来了深重的灾难。当前,由于全球增暖和人类活动加剧的影响,黄河流域气候及水文过程发生了显著的变化,流域整体气候的暖干化和人类... 详细信息

黄河是中华民族的母亲河,孕育了博大精深的中华文明。同时,流域频发的水旱灾害也给黄河两岸的人民群众带来了深重的灾难。当前,由于全球增暖和人类活动加剧的影响,黄河流域气候及水文过程发生了显著的变化,流域整体气候的暖干化和人类用水的不断增加使得黄河流域的水文干旱不断加剧。“退耕还林还草”政策的实施使得黄土高原的植被覆盖得到极大改善,有效地抑制了严重的水土流失,但同时也导致该地区土壤的干化和干土层的加厚,这些是黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展面临的重大问题,也是涉及气候-水-生态-人类社会如何协同发展的基础科学问题。

关键词：黄河流域气候暖干化径流减少人类用水