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Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction number

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 635-651页

作者： Shelby R.Buckman Reuven Glick kevin j.Lansing Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau Lily M.Seitelman Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 101 Market StreetSan Francisco CA94105USA

We demonstrate a methodology for replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 using a simple epidemiology *** fit the model to daily data on the number of infected cases in China,Italy,the United States,and *** four countries can be viewed as representing different stages,from later to earlier,of a COVID-19 epidemic *** solve for a model-implied effective reproduction number R t each day so that the model closely replicates the daily number of currently infected cases in each *** out-of-sample projections,we fit a behavioral function to the in-sample data that allows for the endogenous response of R t to movements in the lagged number of infected *** show that declines in measures of population mobility tend to precede declines in the model-implied reproduction numbers for each *** pattern suggests that mandatory and voluntary stay-at-home behavior and social distancing during the early stages of the epidemic worked to reduce the effective reproduction number and mitigate the spread of COVID-19.

关键词： Coronavirus COVID-19 SEIR Model Epidemics Reproduction number

Sensory sacrifices when we mass-produce mass produce

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Horticulture Research 2016年第1期3卷 167-172页

作者： kevin M Folta Harry j Klee Horticultural Sciences Department Plant Innovation Center and The Graduate Program for Plant Molecular and Cellular BiologyUniversity of FloridaGainesville32606FLUSA

Plant breeders have been extremely successful at driving genetic improvements in ***,‘improvements’are truly a question of *** the last one-hundred years most plant genetic innovations have been driven by industry *** fruits,heavier yields,uniformity,increased resistance to disease and better shipping quality are just a few of the traits that have ensured profits on the farm and affordable food for ***,these milestones have come at the expense of sensory qualities,which have been sacrificed in exchange for practical production *** a base of industry-sufficient genetics,today’s breeders can now turn to the consumer for guidance in defining critical *** approaches to plant breeding start with the analysis of consumer preferences,and then merge them with modern genomics and analytical chemistry *** result is the next generation of crops that meet supply chain demands while presenting improvements in flavor,nutrition,color,aroma and *** review analyzes the approach of consumer-assisted selection as it has been applied to tomato and strawberry,two complementary annual crops that have been intensively bred to meet industry *** breeding efforts start with the consumer,with the objective of reclaiming lost sensory qualities.

关键词： crops breeding driving

Asia's first combined liver transplant and aortic valve replacement

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Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International 2018年第1期17卷 86-87页

作者： chung yeung cheung kenneth s.h.chok oswald j.lee kevin s.lo see ching chan chung mau lo department of surgery queen mary hospitalhong kongChina department of surgery the university of hong konghong kongChina state key laboratory for liver research the university of hong konghong kongChina department of cardiothoracic surgery queen mary hospitalhong kongChina department of anesthesiology queen mary hospitalhong kongChina

To the editor:Liver transplantation is the only cure for patients with endstage liver *** is however an ultra-major surgery which is physiologically challenging to the cardiopulmonary function of the ***,in patients w... 详细信息

关键词： Asia’s first combined liver transplant and aortic valve replacement

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脚底生风,车底带电

脚底生风,车底带电

作者： kevin j.Ryan

＜正＞一个在密苏里州推进的项目将测试高速公路是否能够成为全新的能源来源渠道。此前,我们常见的太阳能能源获取方式通常是通过房顶,或者是在广阔的空地上摆放硅胶面板,多用于工业领域。如今,获取太阳能源的方式即将改变。这个位于密...

＜正＞一个在密苏里州推进的项目将测试高速公路是否能够成为全新的能源来源渠道。此前,我们常见的太阳能能源获取方式通常是通过房顶,或者是在广阔的空地上摆放硅胶面板,多用于工业领域。如今,获取太阳能源的方式即将改变。这个位于密苏里州名为Curbed的休息站即将成为一个试验场地:在道路上铺设

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来源： cnki会议评论

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当太阳能遇上公路

当太阳能遇上公路

Surgical outcomes in adults with purpura fulminans:a systematic review and patientlevel meta-synthesis

作者： kevin j.Ryan

＜正＞此前,我们常见的太阳能能源获取方式通常是通过房顶,或者是在广阔的空地上摆放硅胶面板,多用于工业领域。如今,获取太阳能源的方式即将改变。这个位于密苏里州名为Curbed的休息站即将成为一个试验场地:在道路上铺设可以产生能源...

＜正＞此前,我们常见的太阳能能源获取方式通常是通过房顶,或者是在广阔的空地上摆放硅胶面板,多用于工业领域。如今,获取太阳能源的方式即将改变。这个位于密苏里州名为Curbed的休息站即将成为一个试验场地:在道路上铺设可以产生能源的太阳能面板。近期,全球都在开展这样的试验,在Curbed休息站开始的试验只是其中的一个。

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来源： cnki会议评论

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Burns & Trauma 2019年第1期7卷 279-289页

作者： kevin M.Klifto Caresse F.Gurno Michael j.Grzelak StellaM.Seal Mohammed Asif C.Scott Hultman julie A.Caffrey Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery The Johns Hopkins University School of MedicineBaltimoreMDUSA The johns Hopkins University School of Nursing BaltimoreMDUSA Welch Medical Library The Johns Hopkins University School of MedicineBaltimoreMDUSA johns Hopkins Burn Center 4940 Eastern AvenueBaltimoreMD 21224USA

Background:Cutaneous manifestations of purpura fulminans(PF)present many challenges for clinicians and *** a state of septic shock complicated by limb ischemia,surgical interventions are necessary to control the pathological cascade and improve patient *** objective of this article was to report etiologies and surgical outcomes associated with cutaneous manifestations in ***:This systematic review and meta-analysis compared 190 adult patients with etiologies,signs and symptoms,and surgical outcomes associated with cutaneous manifestations of *** PubMed,EMBASE,Cochrane Library,Web of Science,and Scopus databases were systematically and independently *** and clinical characteristics,surgical interventions,outcomes,and complications were ***:Seventy-nine studies were eligible for the systematic review,and 77 were eligible for meta-analysis using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis(PRISMA)and Cochrane guidelines.A total of 71/190(38%)cases reported surgical *** were reported in 12/190(6%)cases and 20 *** were reported in 154/190(81%)*** was reported in 45 *** grafts were applied in 31 *** were used for reconstruction in 28 ***(IQR)surgical procedures per patient were 4(4,5)*** organisms causing PF were 32%Neisseria meningitidis(n=55)and 32%Streptococcus pneumonia(n=55).Coagulase-negative Staphylococcus(95%confidence interval(CI)(8.2–177.9),p=0.032),Haemophilus influenza(95%CI(7.2–133),p=0.029),Streptococcus pneumonia(95%CI(13.3–75.9),p=0.006),and West Nile Virus(95%CI(8.2–177.9),p=0.032)were associated with significantly more extensive amputations compared to other ***:This systematic review and patient-level meta-analysis found the most common presentation of PF was septic shock from an infectious *** meningitidis and Streptococcus pneumonia were equally

关键词： Amputation Burn units Neisseria Purpura fulminans Reconstructive surgical procedures Shock Septic Surgeons Treatment outcome

Reduction of pro-inflammatory cytokines in rats following 7-day oral supplementation with a proprietary eggshell membrane-derived product

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Modern Research in Inflammation 2014年第1期3卷 19-25页

作者： kevin j. Ruff Dale P. DeVore ESM Technologies LLC Carthage USA Membrell LLC Carthage USA

NEM®?brand eggshell membrane is a novel dietary supplement that has been clinically shown to alleviate arthritis joint pain and stiffness;however the mechanism of action is not well understood. Preliminary evidence from an?in vitro?study of?NEM®?indicated that the mechanism of action may be based on the reduction of pro-inflammatory cytokines.?In vivo?studies were therefore initiated to evaluate the effects of?NEM®?on pro-inflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines following oral administration in rats.?NEM®?was administered daily at doses of 6.13 mg/kg bw/day (Study 1), 10.0 mg/kg bw/day (Study 2), or at doses of 0 (control), 26.0 or 52.0 mg/kg bw/day (Study 3) by oral gavage for 7 consecutive days. Inflammation was induced in the Study 3 rats by intraperitoneal injection of lipopolysaccharide. Changes in plasma cytokine levels from baseline following 7 days of oral supplementation with?NEM®?at 6.13 mg/kg bw/ day (Study 1) were statistically significant at Day 8 for IL-2, TIMP-1 and VEGF, at Day 21 for IL-10, and at Day 35 for MCP-1, MCP-3 and TIMP-1, and at 10.0 mg/kg bw/day (Study 2) were statistically significant at Day 8 for VEGF, at Day 21 for MIP-1β, MIP-2 and VEGF, and at Day 35 for MCP-3, MIP-1β, MIP-2 and VEGF. Changes in serum cytokine levels versus control at 26.0 mg/kg bw/day (Study 3) were statistically significant at all time-points for IL-1β?and at 1.5 hours for IL-10, and at 52.0 mg/kg bw/day (Study 3) were statistically significant at 1.5 hours for IFN-γ, IL-1β?and IL-10, and at 3 hours for IL-1β, and at 24 hours for IL-10. Taken together, these studies demonstrate that oral supplementation with?NEM®?can influence both early-phase pro-inflammatory cytokines like IL-1β?and TNF-α?(Study 3), as well as later-phase cytokines like MCP-1, MIP-1α?&?β, RANTES and VEGF (Study 1 & 2). These studies provide a possible basis for the mechanism of action of?NEM®?in vivo.

关键词： Pro-Inflammatory Cytokines Eggshell Membrane

Discovery of high-entropy ceramics via machine learning

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npj Computational Materials 2020年第1期6卷 1323-1331页

作者： kevin Kaufmann Daniel Maryanovsky William M.Mellor Chaoyi Zhu Alexander S.Rosengarten Tyler j.Harrington Corey Oses Cormac Toher Stefano Curtarolo Kenneth S.Vecchio Department of NanoEngineering UC San DiegoLa JollaCA 92093USA Department of Cognitive Science UC San DiegoLa JollaCA 92093USA Materials Science and Engineering Program UC San DiegoLa JollaCA 92093USA Department of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science Duke UniversityDurhamNC 27708USA Materials Science Electrical EngineeringPhysics and ChemistryDuke UniversityDurhamNC 27708USA

Although high-entropy materials are attracting considerable interest due to a combination of useful properties and promising applications,predicting their formation remains a hindrance for rational discovery of new *** approaches are based on physical intuition and/or expensive trial and error *** computational methods rely on the availability of sufficient experimental data and computational *** learning(ML)applied to materials science can accelerate development and reduce *** this study,we propose an ML method,leveraging thermodynamic and compositional attributes of a given material for predicting the synthesizability(i.e.,entropy-forming ability)of disordered metal carbides.

关键词： ceramics entropy attracting

Interfacial Charge Transfer in Nanoscale Polymer Transistors

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Nano Research 2008年第4期1卷 341-350页

作者： jeffrey H.Worne Rajiv Giridharagopal kevin F.Kelly Douglas Natelson Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Rice University6100 Main St.HoustonTX 77005USA Department of Physics and Astronomy Rice University6100 Main St.HoustonTX 77005USA

Interfacial charge transfer plays an essential role in establishing the relative alignment of the metal Fermi level and the energy bands of organic *** the details remain elusive in many systems,this charge transfer has been inferred in a number of photoemission *** present electronic transport measurements in very short channel(L<100 nm)transistors made from poly(3-hexylthiophene)(P3HT).As channel length is reduced,the evolution of the contact resistance and the zero gate voltage conductance are consistent with such charge *** channel conduction in devices with Pt contacts is greatly enhanced compared to analogous devices with Au contacts,consistent with charge transfer *** current scanning tunneling microscopy(ACSTM)provides further evidence that holes are transferred from Pt into P3HT,while much less charge transfer takes place at the Au/P3HT interface.

关键词： Organic semiconductors band alignment charge transfer organic field-effect transistor scanning tunneling microscopy