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Avoiding the impact of deflation and deflation expectations on economic growth

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China Finance and Economic Review 2016年第1期5卷 14-28页

作者： guo kesha Economic Development and Reform Center Huaqiao UniversityChina

This paper predicts that the Chinese economy will unlikely encounter inflation in the short *** major risks posed to China currently are deflation and downward ***-regulations should have a clear orientation,combining stable growth with prevention of deflation,and integrating demand-side regulation and supply-side structural *** focal point of the demand-side management is to set a reasonable bar for the growth rate of the economy and the rise of price levels in order to stabilize and guide market *** makers should adopt a moderate and directional regulatory monetary policy,setting appropriate policy objectives for the prevention of deflation,as well as make use of a variety of policy *** should implement a structural fiscal policy in a proactive manner,giving extra dynamic ability to the implementation of policies so that they can be more ***,through a deep reform of the supply-side,China can reinforce economic restructuring and boost economic *** makers should pay close attention to the reform of key areas such as state-owned enterprises,land supply,finances,taxation,and prices.

关键词： deflation deflation expectation economic growth

Accelerating the Construction of New Development Pattern and the Paths of Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrading

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China Finance and Economic Review 2022年第1期11卷 3-23页

作者： kesha guo Xiaoxiao Tian School of Economics and Finance Huaqiao UniversityChina

This paper reviews the basic implications and policy orientation of the new development pattern and the impacts of constructing the new development pattern on the manufacturing transformation and upgrading,based on which the choice of manufacturing transformation and upgrading paths is further discussed under the new development *** paper holds that the paths of manufacturing transformation and upgrading need to be adjusted and expanded under the conditions of constructing the new development *** main ideas are as *** the manufacturing industry chain with the large domestic market as the main guide,creating the good environment conducive to independent innovation,coordinating the regional layout for the overall high-quality manufacturing development,optimizing the business environment and enhancing the vitality and driving force of the manufacturing’s development,relying on the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)for a higher level of international *** theoretical bases for adjusting and expanding the paths of manufacturing transformation and upgrading are:embracing the new requirements with domestic circulation as the mainstay,the characteristics with the mutual reinforcement of domestic and international circulations,and promoting the manufacturing’s high-quality development and the medium and high-speed growth.

关键词： new development pattern manufacturing transformation and upgrading theoretical bases

Problems and Solutions of China’s Real Estate Market Based on International Comparison

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China Finance and Economic Review 2018年第4期7卷 3-26页

作者： kesha guo Yanyan Huang Academy of Economic Development and Reform Huaqiao UniversityChina

On the basis of determining the international comparison method and framework of the real estate market, this paper makes a comparative analysis on the development of China’s real estate market and those of some comparable countries (or regions). The prominent problem of the real estate market in our country is the rapid rise of urban house price and the high ratio of house price to income. The direct reason is that the social funds, especially the excessive credit funds flow into the real estate market. The indirect reason is that the land supply mode makes the land price increase too fast and account for high proportion in house price, which leads to the result that the development of real estate industry is beyond the stage of economic development. These problems are not isolated, but related to each other. The rapid rise of house prices in most of the cities, especially in the first-tier cities, is the comprehensive reflection of a large amount of credit funds promoting and the drawbacks of the land supply system in essence. The main ideas to solve the problem are correctly understanding the status, role and influence of the real estate market, stabilizing and improving the short-term control policy of the real estate market, and accelerating the establishment of a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market.

关键词： real estate market international comparison ratio of housing price to income long-term mechanism

Macroeconomic Regulation Under the New Normal

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Qiu Shi 2015年第4期7卷 83-88页

作者： guo kesha

Industrial Upgrade Essential for the Manufacturing Sector’s Expansion

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Beijing Review 2019年第31期62卷 40-41页

作者： guo kesha School of Economics and Finance at Huaqiao University Fujian Province

The development of the manufacturing industry has played a key role in China's economic *** 2018,the value added of manufacturing reached 26.5 trillion yuan($3.8 trillion),contributing 29.4 percent of the GDP.

关键词： The development the Manufacturing Sector's Expansion the GDP

Actively Promoting Investment in the Construction of New Infrastructure

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China Economic Transition 2021年第1期4卷 82-87页

作者： guo kesha School of Economics and Finance Huaqiao University

Infrastructure serves as the cornerstone for socioeconomic *** the construction of new infrastructure is critical for promoting China’s economic growth and laying a solid foundation for long-term *** 2020 Report on t... 详细信息

关键词： development. corners Active

Comprehensive Impacts of China's WTO Entry on Its Industrial Sector

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China & World Economy 2003年第2期11卷 17-21页

作者： guo kesha

China’s industry currently accounts for 45 percent of the country’s GDP growth. With its fast growth rate, the industrial sector shores up the steady growth of the national economy and helps boost the development of other sectors. If China’s industry suffers from the country’s WTO entry, the development of the whole national economy will be greatly affected. The impacts will interact and lead to magnified effects in some areas. The purpose

关键词： WTO of Comprehensive Impacts of China’s WTO Entry on Its Industrial Sector on been

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深入理解推进新型工业化

财贸经济 2024年第1期45卷 17-27页

作者：郭克莎华侨大学经济与金融学院中国社会科学院经济政策研究中心 362021

最近,党中央提出推进新型工业化,主要战略取向是扭转过早去工业化的趋势,促进经济平稳较快增长,推动经济高质量发展。与2002年提出的新型工业化概念相比,当前强调推进新型工业化有了新的含义:新发展阶段推进新型工业化,就是推进以高质... 详细信息

最近,党中央提出推进新型工业化,主要战略取向是扭转过早去工业化的趋势,促进经济平稳较快增长,推动经济高质量发展。与2002年提出的新型工业化概念相比,当前强调推进新型工业化有了新的含义:新发展阶段推进新型工业化,就是推进以高质量发展为导向、为基础、为动力的新型工业化。党的十八大以来,党中央提出的一系列重大战略思想,构成了推进新型工业化的新框架和新要求,必须在完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念的基础上,处理好几个方面的关系:一是坚持推进新型工业化与推进中国式现代化相结合,加强为现代化建设提供物质技术基础的能力,加强对推进现代化强国建设的作用;二是坚持在构建新发展格局中推进新型工业化;三是坚持在推进新型工业化中提升产业链供应链安全稳定水平。同时,要推进新型工业化与新型城镇化协调发展,推动异地城市化逐步或部分向就地城镇化转变,从产业、人口和要素三个维度促进以小城镇为基础的新型城镇化。

关键词：新型工业化高质量发展中国式现代化新发展格局新型城镇化

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我国房地产市场调整的趋势、影响及对策分析

财贸经济 2014年第12期35卷 17-26页

作者：郭克莎中国社会科学院经济政策研究中心华侨大学经济发展与改革研究院

当前我国房地产市场的波动，本质上是一次迟到的周期性调整。把国际经验与我国实际情况结合起来判断：如果没有重大意外事件影响，这轮周期性调整可能持续3～5年时间，多数城市的调整幅度将达到商品房销售量和价格峰值的30％；明后年美... 详细信息

当前我国房地产市场的波动，本质上是一次迟到的周期性调整。把国际经验与我国实际情况结合起来判断：如果没有重大意外事件影响，这轮周期性调整可能持续3～5年时间，多数城市的调整幅度将达到商品房销售量和价格峰值的30％；明后年美国联邦基金利率的上调，将加大我国房地产市场调整的压力。其主要原因在于，住宅供给相对过剩，房价涨幅明显过大，市场预期发生变化，货币信贷环境偏紧，同时地方政府干预使市场矛盾越积越深。市场趋势性调整将对经济增长、金融运行产生严重影响，但具有相对滞后性、逐步放大性和区域分化性特点。政府需要顺应市场规律，采取有效措施稳定市场、调控经济、推进改革，减弱由此带来的负面冲击。

关键词：房地产市场销售价格政策取向