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A new method for estimating the longevity and degradation of hotovoltaic systems considering weather states

Frontiers in Energy 2016年第3期10卷 277-285页

作者： Amir AHADI Hosein HAYATI Joydeep MITRA Reza ABBASI-ASL kehinde awodele Young Researchers and Elite Club Ardabil Branch Islamic Azad University Ardabil *** Iran Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Michigan State University East Lansing MI 48823 USA Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences University of California Berkeley CA 94720 USA Department of Electrical Engineering University of Cape Town Cape Town 7701 South Africa

The power output of solar photovoltaic （PV） systems is affected by solar radiation and ambient temperature. The commonly used evaluation techniques usually overlook the four weather states which are clear, cloudy, foggy, and rainy. In this paper, an ovel analytical model of the four weather conditions based on the Markov chain is proposed. The Markov method is well suited to estimate the reliability and availability of systems based on a continuous stochastic process. The proposed method is generic enough to be applied to reliability evaluation of PV systems and even other applications. Further aspects investigated include the new degradation model for reliability predication of PV modules. The results indicate that the PV module degradation over years, failures, and solar radiation must be considered in choosing an efficient PV system with an optimal design to achieve the maximum benefit of the PV system. For each aspect, a method is proposed, and the complete focusing methodology is expounded and validated using simulated point targets. The results also demonstrate the feasibility and applic- ability of the proposed method for effective modeling of the chronological aspects and stochastic characteristics of solar cells as well as the optimal configuration and sizing of large PV plants in terms of cost and reliability.

关键词： photovoltaic (PV) systems solar cell Markov model weather effects

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