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To mask or not to mask:Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 293-308页

作者： Steffen E.eikenberry Marina Mancuso Enahoro Iboi Tin Phan keenan eikenberry Yang Kuang Eric Kostelich Abba B.Gumel School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Arizona State UniversityTempeAZ85287USA

Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial,though increasingly recommended,and the potential of this intervention is not well *** develop a compartmental model for assessing the communitywide impact of mask use by the general,asymptomatic public,a portion of which may be asymptomatically *** simulations,using data relevant to COVID-19 dynamics in the US states of New York and Washington,suggest that broad adoption of even relatively ineffective face masks may meaningfully reduce community transmission of COVID-19 and decrease peak hospitalizations and ***,mask use decreases the effective transmission rate in nearly linear proportion to the product of mask effectiveness(as a fraction of potentially infectious contacts blocked)and coverage rate(as a fraction of the general population),while the impact on epidemiologic outcomes(death,hospitalizations)is highly nonlinear,indicating masks could synergize with other nonpharmaceutical ***,masks are found to be useful with respect to both preventing illness in healthy persons and preventing asymptomatic *** mask adoption scenarios,for Washington and New York state,suggest that immediate near universal(80%)adoption of moderately(50%)effective masks could prevent on the order of 17e45%of projected deaths over two months in New York,while decreasing the peak daily death rate by 34e58%,absent other changes in epidemic *** very weak masks(20%effective)can still be useful if the underlying transmission rate is relatively low or decreasing:InWashington,where baseline transmission is much less intense,80%adoption of such masks could reduce mortality by 24e65%(and peak deaths 15e69%),compared to 2e9%mortality reduction in New York(peak death reduction 9e18%).Our results suggest use of face masks by the general public is potentially of high value in curtailing community transmission and the burden

关键词： Face mask Non-pharmaceutical intervention Cloth mask N95 respirator Surgical mask SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19

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Role of alcohol in pathogenesis of hepatitis B virus infection

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2020年第9期26卷 883-903页

作者： Murali Ganesan Allison eikenberry Larisa Y Poluektova Kusum K Kharbanda Natalia A Osna Research Service Veterans Affairs Nebraska-Western Iowa Health Care SystemOmahaNE 68105United States Department of Internal Medicine Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyUniversity of Nebraska Medical CenterOmahaNE 68105United States

Hepatitis B virus(HBV)and alcohol abuse often contribute to the development of end-stage liver *** abuse not only causes rapid progression of liver disease in HBV infected patients but also allows HBV to persist ***,the mechanism by which alcohol promotes the progression of HBVassociated liver disease are not completely *** mechanisms include a suppressed immune response,oxidative stress,endoplasmic reticulum and Golgi apparatus stresses,and increased HBV ***,more research is necessary to gain a better understanding of these mechanisms such that treatment(s)to prevent rapid liver disease progression in alcohol-abusing HBV patients could be *** this review,we discuss the aforementioned factors for the higher risk of liver diseases in alcohol-induced HBV pathogenies and suggest the areas for future studies in this field.

关键词： Hepatitis B virus Alcohol Immunity Oxidative stress Liver disease

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Will vaccine-derived protective immunity curtail COVID-19 variants in the US?

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 1110-1134页

作者： Marina Mancuso Steffen E.eikenberry Abba B.Gumel Arizona State University School of Mathematical and Statistical SciencesTempeAZ85287USA Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of PretoriaPretoria0002South Africa

Multiple effective vaccines are currently being deployed to combat the COVID-19 pandemic,and are viewed as the major factor in marked reductions of disease burden in regions with moderate to high vaccination *** effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination programs is,however,significantly threatened by the emergence of new SARS-COV-2 variants that,in addition to being more transmissible than the wild-type(original)strain,may at least partially evade existing vaccines.A two-strain(one wildtype,one variant)and two-group(vaccinated or otherwise)mechanistic mathematical model is designed and used to assess the impact of the vaccine-induced cross-protective efficacy on the spread the COVID-19 pandemic in the United *** analysis of the model shows that,in the absence of any co-circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant,the vaccine-derived herd immunity threshold needed to eliminate the wild-type strain can be achieved if 59%of the US population is fully-vaccinated with either the Pfizer or Moderna *** threshold increases to 76%if the wild-type strain is co-circulating with the Alpha variant(a SARS-CoV-2 variant that is 56%more transmissible than the wild-type strain).If the wild-type strain is co-circulating with the Delta variant(which is estimated to be 100%more transmissible than the wild-type strain),up to 82%of the US population needs to be vaccinated with either of the aforementioned vaccines to achieve the vaccine-derived herd *** sensitivity analysis of the model reveal the following four parameters as the most influential in driving the value of the reproduction number of the variant strain(hence,COVID-19 dynamics)in the US:(a)the infectiousness of the co-circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant,(b)the proportion of individuals fully vaccinated(using Pfizer or Moderna vaccine)against the wild-type strain,(c)the cross-protective efficacy the vaccines offer against the variant strain and(d)the modification parameter accounting for the reduced infectio

关键词： COVID-19 Vaccine Wild-type Variant Reproduction number Herd immunity

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美国饲料监督工作的四十年

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中国畜牧兽医 1991年第4期 41-42页

作者： J.G.eikenberry 吴迪

饲料监督工作是饲料工业健康发展的可靠保证。40年来,美国畜牧业发展非常迅速,取得了令人嘱目的成就。这与美国饲料工业突飞猛进发展和饲料监督工作不断完善和进步分不开的。但是应当看到,美国饲料监督工作目前还处于初级阶段,缺陷疏漏... 详细信息

饲料监督工作是饲料工业健康发展的可靠保证。40年来,美国畜牧业发展非常迅速,取得了令人嘱目的成就。这与美国饲料工业突飞猛进发展和饲料监督工作不断完善和进步分不开的。但是应当看到,美国饲料监督工作目前还处于初级阶段,缺陷疏漏之处还很多。本文仅对美国40年来饲料监督工作作一简单回顾。

关键词：药物性食品监督饲料工业饲料业加工工业美国美利坚合众国北美洲

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