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A Bayesian multi-model inference methodology for imprecise momentindependent global sensitivity analysis of rock structures

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Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering 2024年第3期16卷 840-859页

作者： Akshay Kumar Gaurav tiwari Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology(IIT)KanpurKanpur208016India

Traditional global sensitivity analysis(GSA)neglects the epistemic uncertainties associated with the probabilistic characteristics(i.***.type of distribution type and its parameters)of input rock properties emanating due to the small size of datasets while mapping the relative importance of properties to the model response.This paper proposes an augmented Bayesian multi-model inference(BMMI)coupled with GSA methodology(BMMI-GSA)to address this issue by estimating the imprecision in the momentindependent sensitivity indices of rock structures arising from the small size of input data.The methodology employs BMMI to quantify the epistemic uncertainties associated with model type and parameters of input properties.The estimated uncertainties are propagated in estimating imprecision in moment-independent Borgonovo’s indices by employing a reweighting approach on candidate probabilistic models.The proposed methodology is showcased for a rock slope prone to stress-controlled failure in the Himalayan region of India.The proposed methodology was superior to the conventional GSA(neglects all epistemic uncertainties)and Bayesian coupled GSA(B-GSA)(neglects model uncertainty)due to its capability to incorporate the uncertainties in both model type and parameters of properties.Imprecise Borgonovo’s indices estimated via proposed methodology provide the confidence intervals of the sensitivity indices instead of their fixed-point estimates,which makes the user more informed in the data collection efforts.Analyses performed with the varying sample sizes suggested that the uncertainties in sensitivity indices reduce significantly with the increasing sample sizes.The accurate importance ranking of properties was only possible via samples of large sizes.Further,the impact of the prior knowledge in terms of prior ranges and distributions was significant;hence,any related assumption should be made carefully.

关键词： Bayesian inference Multi-model inference Statistical uncertainty Global sensitivity analysis(GSA) Borgonovo’s indices Limited data

EPQ model with the effect of inflation and reliability for partial trade credit under fuzzy and cloudy fuzzy environment

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Journal of Management Analytics 2024年第1期11卷 110-134页

作者： Supriya tiwari Kunal Shah Kajal Bhimani Department of Science and Humanities Apollo Institute of Engineering&TechnologyGTUAhmedabadIndia Department of Mathematics SMMPISRKadi Sarva VishwavidyalayaGandhinagarIndia AVAerials 401 Swarnim Business Hub-1 New Chamunda SocietyGodrej Garden CityGotaAhmedabadIndia

The proposed study offers the first-of-its-kind economic production quantity model for deteriorating items having a demand rate to be price dependent under the effect of inflation and reliability with partial trade credit.The model is extended under an uncertain environment by assuming inventory parameters to be triangular fuzzy numbers and cloudy triangular fuzzy numbers.The objective of the study is to maximize the profit of the inventory system and to identify the most suitable environment for the proposed problem.Results are verified using the numerical study.Furthermore,the comparative study is presented to justify the nature of fuzzy and cloudy fuzzy environments.Sensitivity analysis under all environments is conducted to identify the most sensitive parameters of all.

关键词： EPQ partial trade credit inflation reliability triangular fuzzy number cloudy triangular fuzzy number

Anti-methanogenic potential of seaweeds and seaweed-derived compounds in ruminant feed:current perspectives,risks and future prospects

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Journal of Animal Science and Biotechnology 2024年第2期15卷 463-489页

作者： Ailbhe McGurrin Julie Maguire Brijesh K.tiwari Marco Garcia-Vaquero Section of Food and Nutrition School of Agriculture and Food ScienceUniversity College DublinDublin 4BelfieldIreland TEAGASC Food Research CentreDublin 15AshtownIreland Bantry Marine Research Station Ltd BantryCo.CorkP75 AX07GearhiesIreland

With methane emissions from ruminant agriculture contributing 17%of total methane emissions worldwide,there is increasing urgency to develop strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in this sector.One of the proposed strategies is ruminant feed intervention studies focused on the inclusion of anti-methanogenic compounds which are those capable of interacting with the rumen microbiome,reducing the capacity of ruminal microorganisms to produce methane.Recently,seaweeds have been investigated for their ability to reduce methane in ruminants in vitro and in vivo,with the greatest methane abatement reported when using the red seaweed Asparagopsis taxiformis(attributed to the bromoform content of this species).From the literature analysis in this study,levels of up to 99%reduction in ruminant methane emissions have been reported from inclusion of this seaweed in animal feed,although further in vivo and microbiome studies are required to confirm these results as other reports showed no effect on methane emission resulting from the inclusion of seaweed to basal feed.This review explores the current state of research aiming to integrate seaweeds as anti-methanogenic feed additives,as well as examining the specific bioactive compounds within seaweeds that are likely to be related to these effects.The effects of the inclusion of seaweeds on the ruminal microbiome are also reviewed,as well as the future challenges when considering the largescale inclusion of seaweeds into ruminant diets as anti-methanogenic agents.

关键词： Asparagopsis Bromoform Methanogenesis Phlorotannin Saponin Tannin

Impacts of road on plant invasions in the Middle Mountain region of central Nepal

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第2期21卷 619-632页

作者： Ananda ADHIKARI Adarsha SUBEDI Achyut tiwari Bharat Babu SHRESTHA Central Department of Botany Tribhuvan UniversityKirtipur 44618Nepal

Biological invasion is triggered by human development activities such as the construction and expansion of road networks.Road verges serve as important habitats and corridors for the distribution of invasive alien plant species(IAPS)between geographically distant habitats.However,the trajectory of plant invasion and the data regarding the impact of roads on IAPS distribution are relatively poor in Nepal.Here,we surveyed two road types(main roads and feeder road)in the Middle Mountain region of central Nepal in order to investigate how different road types are driving the dispersal of IAPS along road verges and the adjacent natural habitats.Systematic sampling was conducted at ca 2.5 km intervals along the roads.At each sampling site,paired plots(25 m×4 m)were sampled:one adjacent to and along the road,and another 20 m away and parallel to it in the interior habitat.Our results revealed that the main road verges had a higher cover(33%)and a larger number of IAPS(14 species)than the feeder road(25%;10 species).The IAPS cover and richness were significantly higher along verges than in the adjacent interior habitats for both road types,indicating that roads are contributing as corridors for the dispersal of IAPS in the Middle Mountain areas of central Nepal.Further,elevation,tree canopy,and disturbances(grazing/mowing/trampling)were found to be the key factors that determine spatial distribution of IAPS along road verges.We emphasize that regular monitoring of vegetation along the road verges can help with the early detection and control of potential IAPS in the region before they become problematic.

关键词： Biological invasions Dispersal corridor Invasive alien plants Transport infrastructure Himalayan mountains

Tubularized incised plateurethroplasty and grafted tubularized incised plate urethroplasty: systematic review, metaanalysis and trial sequential analysis

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World Journal of Pediatric Surgery 2024年第1期7卷 10-19页

作者： Nitinkumar Borkar Charu tiwari Abhijit Nair Debajyoti Mohanty C K Sinha Jai Kumar Mahajan Paediatric Surgery All India Institute of Medical Sciences-RaipurRaipurChhattisgardhIndia Department of Anaesthesiology Ibra HospitalbraOman General Surgery All India Institute of Medical Sciences-RaipurRaipurChhattisgardhIndia Paediatric Surgery St George's University Hospitals NHS Foundation TrustLondonUK Pediatric Surgery PGIMERChandigarhIndia

Background Hypospadias is one of the most common genital birth defects.There are around 300 various techniques available for the repair of hypospadias.This study aims to compare the reported outcomes of Tubularized incised plate urethroplasty(TIP)and Grafted TIP(GTIP)repair in children undergoing primary hypospadiasrepair.Methods This meta-analysisadhered to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines,and we framed our research question using the population,intervention,control and outcomes format.We conducted comprehensive electronic searches across various databases,employing a Boolean search strategy with predefined search terms.Only randomized controlled trials(RCTs)were included for quantitative analysis.Results Totally,10 RCTs met our inclusion criteria for quantitative analysis.The results indicated that urethrocutaneous fistula,glans dehiscence,and stricture rates were comparable between the two groups.The incidence of meatal stenosis was found to be significantly lower in the GTIP group with a relative risk(RR)of 0.32(95%confidence interval(Cl)0.15 to 0.67).Conclusion The coucomes UCF,glans dehiscence,and stricture rates were comparable between the two groups.Notably,the incidence of meatal stenosis was found to be significantly lower in the grafted TIP group.In terms of operative time,our quantitative synthesis demonstrated that the TIP group had a shorter operative time than the GTIP group with significant heterogeneity.

关键词： plate grafted analysis

Post-urethroplasty complications in hypospadias repair: a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing, polydioxanone and polyglactin sutures

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World Journal of Pediatric Surgery 2024年第1期7卷 1-9页

作者： Nitinkumar Borkar Charu tiwari Debajyoti Mohanty Tridip Dutta Baruah Manoj Mohanty C K Sinha Pediatric Surgery All India Instituteof Medical Sciences-RaipurRaipurChhattisgardhIndia General Surgery All India Institute of Medical Sciences-RaipurRaipurChhattisgardhIndia Pediatric Surgery All India Institute of Medical Sciences-BhubaneswarBhubaneswarOrissaIndia St George's University of London LondonUK

Background Polyglactin(PG)and polydioxanone(PDS)sutures are extensively used based on the surgeon's preference.The development of post-reconstruction urethrocutaneous fistula(UCF)is variably attributed to the choice of suture material for urethroplasty.This meta-an alysiscompares complications of hypospadia srepair using PGand PDS sutures.Methods The systematic review and meta-analysis were performed as per the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines.The authors conducted thorough searches in databases including MEDLINE,EMBASE,CENTRAL,Scopus,Google Scholar,and clinical trial registries.Outcome measures included UCF,meatal stenosis,wound infection,urethral stricture,glans dehiscence,and overall complications.Quantitative analysis was used with fixed or random-effect models to find the pooled risk ratio and I2 heterogeneity.Results The criteria for inclusion were met by five comparative studies with the inclusion of 1244 children altogether.Pooled analysis failed to show a statistically significant difference in the incidence of meatal stenosis,urethral stricture,wound infection,and total complications using PG and PDS sutures.However,it showed a reduction in the incidence of UCF with PDS suture hypospadias repairs(risk ratio=0.66,95%Cl 0.48 to 0.92).Conclusions PDS sutures are associated with decreased incidence of UCF than PG after hypospadias repair.The incidence of meatal stenosis,urethral stricture,wound infection,and total complications was not affected by the type of suture material used for repair.Clinical implications This meta-analysis suggests decreased incidence of UCF when PDS sutures are used for hypospadias repair which may impact the choice of suturematerialforrepair.

关键词： complications wound suture

Role of fecal microbiota transplant in management of hepatic encephalopathy: Current trends and future directions

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World Journal of Hepatology 2024年第1期16卷 17-32页

作者： Yash R Shah Hassam Ali Angad tiwari David Guevara-Lazo Natalia Nombera-Aznaran Bhanu Siva Mohan Pinnam Manesh Kumar Gangwani Harishankar Gopakumar Amir H Sohail SriLakshmiDevi Kanumilli Ernesto Calderon-Martinez Geetha Krishnamoorthy Nimish Thakral Dushyant Singh Dahiya Department of Internal Medicine Trinity Health Oakland/Wayne State UniversityPontiacMI 48341United States Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology East Carolina University/Brody School of MedicineGreenvilleNC 27858United States Department of Internal Medicine Maharani Laxmi Bai Medical CollegeJhansi 284001India Faculty of Medicine Universidad Peruana Cayetano HerediaLima 15102Peru Department of Internal Medicine John H.Stroger Hospital of Cook CountyChicagoIL 60612United States Department of Internal Medicine The University of ToledoToledoOH 43606United States Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology University of Illinois College of Medicine at PeoriaPeoriaIL 61605United States Department of Surgery University of New MexicoAlbuquerqueNM 87106United States Department of Internal Medicine GSL Medical CollegeRajamahendravaram 533296India Department of Internal Medicine Universidad Nacional Autonoma de MexicoCiudad De Mexico 04510Mexico Department of Digestive Diseases and Nutrition University of KentuckyLexingtonKY 40536United States Division of Gastroenterology Hepatology&MotilityThe University of Kansas School of MedicineKansas CityKS 66160United States

Fecal microbiota transplantation(FMT)offers a potential treatment avenue for hepatic encephalopathy(HE)by leveraging beneficial bacterial displacement to restore a balanced gut microbiome.The prevalence of HE varies with liver disease severity and comorbidities.HE pathogenesis involves ammonia toxicity,gut-brain communication disruption,and inflammation.FMT aims to restore gut microbiota balance,addressing these factors.FMT's efficacy has been explored in various conditions,including HE.Studies suggest that FMT can modulate gut microbiota,reduce ammonia levels,and alleviate inflammation.FMT has shown promise in alcohol-associated,hepatitis B and C-associated,and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.Benefits include improved liver function,cognitive function,and the slowing of disease progression.However,larger,controlled studies are needed to validate its effectiveness in these contexts.Studies have shown cognitive improvements through FMT,with potential benefits in cirrhotic patients.Notably,trials have demonstrated reduced serious adverse events and cognitive enhancements in FMT arms compared to the standard of care.Although evidence is promising,challenges remain:Limited patient numbers,varied dosages,administration routes,and donor profiles.Further large-scale,controlled trials are essential to establish standardized guidelines and ensure FMT's clinical applications and efficacy.While FMT holds potential for HE management,ongoing research is needed to address these challenges,optimize protocols,and expand its availability as a therapeutic option for diverse hepatic conditions.

关键词： Hepatic encephalopathy Fecal microbiota transplant Cognitive impairment Liver cirrhosis Chronic liver disease

Evaluation of Rainfall Tendency for the Twentieth Century over Indira Sagar Region in Central India

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American Journal of Climate Change 2024年第1期13卷 47-68页

作者： Rituraj Shukla Deepak Khare Ramesh P. Rudra Priti tiwari Himanshu Sharma Prasad Daggupati Pradeep Goel School of Engineering University of Guelph Guelph Canada Department of Water Resources Development and Management Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee India Indira Gandhi Agricultural University Raipur India Department of Civil Engineering Institute of Infrastructure Technology Research and Management (IITRAM) Ahmedabad India

The study investigates long-term changes in annual and seasonal rainfall patterns in the Indira Sagar Region of Madhya Pradesh, India, from 1901 to 2010. Agriculture sustainability, food supply, natural resource development, and hydropower system reliability in the region rely heavily on monsoon rainfall. Monthly rainfall data from three stations (East Nimar, Barwani, and West Nimar) were analyzed. Initially, the pre-whitening method was applied to eliminate serial correlation effects from the rainfall data series. Subsequently, statistical trends in annual and seasonal rainfall were assessed using both parametric (student-t test) and non-parametric tests [Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator, and Cumulative Sum (CUSUM)]. The magnitude of the rainfall trend was determined using Theil-Sen’s slope estimator. Spatial analysis of the Mann-Kendall test on an annual basis revealed a statistically insignificant decreasing trend for Barwani and East Nimar and an increasing trend for West Nimar. On a seasonal basis, the monsoon season contributes a significant percentage (88.33%) to the total annual rainfall. The CUSUM test results indicated a shift change detection in annual rainfall data for Barwani in 1997, while shifts were observed in West and East Nimar stations in 1929. These findings offer valuable insights into regional rainfall behavior, aiding in the planning and management of water resources and ecological systems.

关键词： Precipitation Parametric Non-Parametric Tests Trend Analysis Serial Correlations

Some Features of Black Carbon Aerosols Connected with Regional Climate Over Pristine Environment

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Journal of Atmospheric Science Research 2024年第1期7卷 1-18页

作者： Saurabh Yadav Panuganti C.S.Devara S.M.Sonbawne B.S.Murthy S.tiwari S.Wadhwa A.Kumar Amity Centre of Excellence in Ocean-Atmosphere Science and Technology(ACOAST) Amity University Haryana(AUH)Gurugram122413India Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology(IITM) PashanPune411008India

The authors report the results of aethalometer black carbon(BC)aerosol measurements carried out over a rural(pristine)site,Panchgaon,Haryana State,India during the winter months of 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.They are compared with collocated and concurrent observations from the Air Quality Monitoring Station(AQMS),which provides synchronous air pollution and surface meteorological parameters.Secular variations in BC mass concentration are studied and explained with variations in local meteorological parameters.The biomass burning fire count retrievals from NASA-NOAA VIIRS satellite,and backward airmass trajectories from NOAA-ERL HYSPLIT Model analysis have also been utilized to explain the findings.They reveal that the north-west Indian region contributes maximum to the BC mass concentration over the study site during the study period.Moreover,the observed BC mass concentrations corroborate the synchronous fire count,primary and secondary pollutant concentrations.The results were found to aid the development of mitigation methods to achieve a sustainable climate system.

关键词： Carbonaceous aerosols Dual-spot technique Temporal variations Primary and secondary pollutants Stubble burning Long-range transport Satellite products