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Changes in demand and supply of ecosystem services under scenarios of future land use in Vorarlberg, Austria

Journal of Mountain Science 2019年第12期16卷 2793-2809页

作者： SAUTER Isabel kienast felix BOLLIGER Janine WINTER Benjamin PAZuR Robert Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Zurcherstrasse 1118903 BirmensdorfSwitzerland ALPS-Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Grabenweg 686020 InnsbruckAustria Institute of Geography University of InnsbruckInnrain 526020 InnsbruckAustria Institute of Geography Slovak Academy of SciencesStefanikova 4981473 BratislavaSlovakia

Ecosystem services(ES)are highly impacted by human-induced land-use *** urbanization and agricultural land abandonment in Western Europe necessitate assessments of future land-change impacts on ES to ensure sustainable service *** present study aims at evaluating future demand and supply of three key services(flood protection,nearby recreation and biodiversity)in the mountainous region of Vorarlberg,*** mapped the ES for the referenced time step 2016 and two scenarios for 2050,assuming the continuation of current land-change trends and pressure on landscape *** for the referenced landscape in 2016 show the highest ES supply for intermediate levels,while ES supply was low in the lowlands and valley bottoms and in high-elevation *** found a high positive correlation of ES with the distribution of forested *** contrast,service demand was highest in lowelevation areas and decreased with increasing *** indicates that densely settled and intensively used agricultural areas currently suffer from ES *** projected future development of land use showed an increase in both supply and demand of the selected *** overall service supply increased more than the respective demand due to some reforestation of open *** forests were found to be important synergistic areas for overall service provision,we expect decreasing demand on related ***,demand was found to exceed the supply of ES,especially in the densely populated Rhine valley-requiring further policy *** ES-related information may contribute to regional policy making and ensure the long-term provision of ESs for future generations.

关键词： Land-use change Future land-use scenarios Regional assessment Ecosystem services Synergies Conflicts

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