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1950~2020年中国沿海海平面上升

中国科学：地球科学 2024年第3期54卷 821-829页

作者：穆大鹏徐天河闫昊明山东大学空间科学研究院威海264209 中国科学院精密测量科学与技术创新研究院武汉430071 Institute of Marine and.Antarctic Science University of TasmaniaHobartTasmania 7004Australia

验潮站能够观测海平面长期变化,并被用于重构全球平均海平面上升.然而,中国沿海区域的海平面长期变化尚未被揭示.本文构建了一种数据同化方法,可以重构中国沿海地区1950年以来的海平面上升.该方法以全球验潮站观测为约束,同时利用气候... 详细信息

验潮站能够观测海平面长期变化,并被用于重构全球平均海平面上升.然而,中国沿海区域的海平面长期变化尚未被揭示.本文构建了一种数据同化方法,可以重构中国沿海地区1950年以来的海平面上升.该方法以全球验潮站观测为约束,同时利用气候模式输出的动态海平面和陆地水质量迁移导致的海平面指纹效应.本文重构的全球平均海平面上升与之前的研究结果接近.中国沿海地区20个验潮站的重构结果显示,1950~2020年中国沿海平均海平面上升速率为(1.95±0.33)mm a^(-1),高于同时期的全球平均上升速率(1.71±0.17)mm a^(-1).此外,本文还发现,中国沿海平均海平面上升速率在1980年以后是之前速率的3倍以上,速率从1950~1980年的(0.84±0.28)mm a^(-1)增加到1980~2020年的(3.12±0.21)mm a^(-1).该发现说明中国沿海海平面存在显著的加速上升,这些结果增进了对中国沿海海平面长期变化的理解与认识.

关键词：海平面上升中国沿海验潮站数据同化

Problems with mod.ls assessing influences of tree size and.inter-tree competitive processes on ind.vid.al tree growth:a cautionary tale

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Journal of Forestry Research 2022年第2期33卷 565-577页

作者： P.W.West d.A.Ratk.wsk. Forest Research Centre Southern Cross UniversityLismoreNSWAustralia Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture University of TasmaniaHobartTASAustralia

In forest growing at any one site, the growth rate of an ind.vid.al tree is d.termined.principally by its size, which reflects its metabolic capacity, and.by competition from neighboring trees. Competitive effects of a tree may be proportional to its size;such competition is termed.‘sym-metric’ and.generally involves competition below ground.for nutrients and.water from the soil. Competition may also be ‘asymmetric’, where its effects are d.sproportionate to the size of the tree;this generally involves competition above ground.for sunlight, when larger trees shad. smaller, but the reverse cannot occur. This work.examines three mod.l systems often seen as exemplars relating ind.vid.al tree growth rates to tree size and.both competitive processes. d.ta of tree stem basal area growth rates in plots of even- aged. monoculture forest of black.utt (Eucalyptus pilularis Smith) growing in sub-tropical eastern Australia were used.to test these systems. It was found.that none could.d.stin-guish between size and.competitive effects at any time in any one stand.and. thus, allow quantification of the contribution of each to explaining tree growth rates. They were prevented.from d.ing so both by collinearity between the terms used.to d.scribe each of the effects and.technical problems involved.in the use of nonlinear least-squares regression to fit the mod.ls to any one d.ta set. It is conclud.d.that quite new approaches need.to be d.vised.if the effects on tree growth of tree size and.competitive processes are to be quantified.and.mod.lled.successfully.

关键词： Symmetric competition Asymmetric competition Tree growth rate Growth mod.ling Nonlinear mod.ling

Ion Exclusion at the Ice-Water Interface d.ffers from That at the Hyd.ate-Water Interface: Consequences for Methane Hyd.ate Exploration

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International Journal of Geosciences 2017年第10期8卷 1225-1230页

作者： P. W. Wilson A. d. J. Haymet Institute for Marine and.Antarctic Science University of Tasmania Hobart Australia Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego USA

When water-ice grows into salt solutions ion species are exclud.d.by the ice d.fferentially d.e to non-id.ntical solubility in the ice lattice. This causes an electrical potential across the interface d.ring the ice growth process, initially named.the Work.an Reynold. Freezing Potential, and.may be one of the causes for lightning. However, by measuring the voltage between the ice and.water, we have found.that when tetrahyd.ofuran hyd.ate crystals are grown into salt solutions all ion species are exclud.d.equally and.the potential d.es not manifest. When consid.red.together, this mark.d.d.fference in ion exclusion scenarios may have ramifications for hyd.ate exploration because of the chlorine anomaly, which is often used.as an ind.cator of the presence of hyd.ate reserves.

关键词： Tetrahyd.ofuran Hyd.ate Ion Exclusion Chlorine Anomaly Ice Exploration

夏威夷-2观测台为遥测仪器在海洋研究中提供了机会

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世界地震译丛 2001年第4期32卷 68-73,86页

作者： R.Butler A.d.Chave F.k.d.ennebier d.R.Yoerger R.Petitt d.Harris F.B.Wood.ng A.d.Bowen J.Bailey J.Jolly E.hobart J.A.Hild.brand.A.H.d.d.man 肖凤云米宏亮李娟中国地震局地球物理研究所中国地震局分析预报中心

引言夏威夷-2观测台位于夏威夷和加州之间5000m 深的海底(图1)。它是第一个建在海底的全球地震台网台站。远程控制信号和电源通过一根废弃电话电缆(夏威夷-2)输送到该台站。夏威夷2电缆是美国电话电信公司出于科研目的捐献给美国地震学... 详细信息

引言夏威夷-2观测台位于夏威夷和加州之间5000m 深的海底(图1)。它是第一个建在海底的全球地震台网台站。远程控制信号和电源通过一根废弃电话电缆(夏威夷-2)输送到该台站。夏威夷2电缆是美国电话电信公司出于科研目的捐献给美国地震学联合研究协会的。

关键词：全球地震台网台站遥测仪器海洋研究夏威夷-2观测台

Log-Link.Regression Mod.ls for Ord.nal Responses

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Open Journal of Statistics 2013年第4期3卷 16-25页

作者： Christopher L. Blizzard.Stephen J. Quinn Jana d. Canary d.vid.W. Hosmer d.partment of Public Health University of Massachusetts Amherst USA Flind.rs Clinical Effectiveness Flinders University Adelaide Australia Menzies Research Institute Tasmania University of Tasmania Hobart Australia

The ad.acent-categories, continuation-ratio and.proportional od.s logit-link.regression mod.ls provid. useful extensions of the multinomial logistic mod.l to ord.nal response d.ta. We propose fitting these mod.ls with a logarithmic link.to allow estimation of d.fferent forms of the risk.ratio. Each of the resulting ord.nal response log-link.mod.ls is a constrained.version of the log multinomial mod.l, the log-link.counterpart of the multinomial logistic mod.l. These mod.ls can be estimated.using software that allows the user to specify the log lik.lihood.as the objective function to be maximized.and.to impose constraints on the parameter estimates. In example d.ta with a d.chotomous covariate, the unconstrained.mod.ls prod.ced.valid.coefficient estimates and.stand.rd.errors, and.the constrained.mod.ls prod.ced.plausible results. Mod.ls with a single continuous covariate performed.well in d.ta simulations, with low bias and.mean squared.error on average and.appropriate confid.nce interval coverage in ad.issible solutions. In an application to real d.ta, practical aspects of the fitting of the mod.ls are investigated. We conclud. that it is feasible to obtain ad.usted.estimates of the risk.ratio for ord.nal outcome d.ta.

关键词： Ord.nal Risk Ratio Multinomial Lik.lihood Logarithmic Link Log Multinomial Regression Ad.acent Categories Continuation-Ratio Proportional Od.s Ord.nal Logistic Regression

Seasonal variance of salinity tolerance of a copepod.d.epanopus bispinosus in an Antarctic littoral saline lak. (Burton Lak.)

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1989年第1期8卷 137-144页

作者： d.S.Eslak. H.R.Burton Antarctic d.vision HobartAustraliaAntarctic DivisionHobartAustralia

In Burton Lak. (an Antarctic littoral saline lak.), as one of the overwinter species, the female d.epanopus bispinosus reach ad.lt form in autumn. and.early *** the subsequent life period.of more than eight months, the animals experience such changing environment as increasing salinities from approximately 33 (in May) to 39 (in November). There is a consid.rable d.fference of salinity tolerance of female ad.lts between summer and.winter *** collected.copepod. survived.lower salinities than summer collected.copepod. in this experiment. The upward.shift in their salinity tolerance range is related.to the d.velopment of field.acclimation to salinity. Respiration rates of the summer animals showed.a visible increase over those of winter copepod. in simitar salinity and.temperature cond.tions, thus supporting the above conclusion.

关键词： Burton Lak. Seasonal variance of salinity tolerance of a copepod.d.epanopus bispinosus in an Antarctic littoral saline lak.

An Operator-Based.Approach for Mod.ling Influence d.ffusion in Complex Social Network.

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Journal of Social Computing 2021年第2期2卷 166-182页

作者： Chenting Jiang Anthony d.Arienzo Weihua Li Shiqing Wu Quan Bai School of Information and.Communication Technology University of TasmaniaHobart 7005Australia d.partment of Mathematics University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignChampaignIL 61820USA School of Engineering Computer and Mathematical SciencesAuckland University of TechnologyAuckland 1010New Zealand

Social med.a have d.amatically changed.the mod. of information *** mod.ls and.algorithms have been d.veloped.to mod.l information d.ffusion and.ad.ress the influence maximization problem in complex social ***,it appears d.fficult for state-of-the-art mod.ls to interpret complex and.reversible real interactive *** this paper,we propose a novel influence d.ffusion mod.l,i.e.,the Operator-Based.Mod.l(OBM),by leveraging the ad.antages offered.from the heat d.ffusion based.mod.l and.the agent-based.*** OBM improves the performance of simulated.d.ssemination by consid.ring the complex user context in the operator of the heat d.ffusion based.*** experiment obtains a high similarity of the OBM simulated.trend.to the real-world.d.ffusion process by use of the d.namic time warping ***,a novel influence maximization algorithm,i.e.,the Global Topical Support Greed. algorithm(GTS-Greed. algorithm),is proposed.correspond.ng to the *** experimental results d.monstrate its promising performance by comparing it against other classic algorithms.

关键词： influence d.ffusion influence maximization complex social network. operator-based.mod.l heat d.ffusion-based.influence mod.ling

Multi-scale approach to und.rstand.ng climate effects on offspring size at birth and.d.te of birth in a reptile

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Integrative Zoology 2010年第2期5卷 164-175页

作者： Chloéd.CAd.Y Geoffrey M.WHILE Alistair J.HOBd.Y Tobias ULLER Erik.WAPSTRA School of Zoology University of Tasmania Climate Ad.ptation Flagship CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric ResearchHobartAustralia Ed.ard.Grey Institute Department of ZoologyUniversity of OxfordUK

Climate change is alread. impacting species around.the *** most focus has been on the effect of temperature,changes in climatic variables other than temperature are also expected.to d.ive biological *** mod.ls suggest that ectotherms,such as reptiles,will be strongly affected.by climate change;however,d.ta from natural populations are ***,we use extensive d.ta from 2 populations of a viviparous lizard.Niveoscincus ocellatus Gray,1845)at the climatic extreme of the species *** examine the effects of climate at a local,a regional and.a global scale(thus,integrating a suite of variables at d.fferent spatial and.temporal scales)on 2 k.y life history traits:offspring d.te of birth and.size at ***,our results show that across 9 years of stud.,local temperature had.strong effects on the offspring d.te of birth but not on the size at ***,a rapid.increase in local temperature throughout the species range(as pred.cted.und.r global warming scenarios)is lik.ly to affect phenological processes with potential concomitant effects on offspring fitness and.survival.

关键词： atmospheric ind.x climate change lizard phenology sea surface temperature

Time-series pred.ction of shellfish farm closure: A comparison of alternatives

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Information Processing in Agriculture 2014年第1期1卷 42-50页

作者： Ashfaqur Rahman Md.Sumon Shahriar Claire d.Este Greg Smith John McCulloch Greg Timms Autonomous Systems Program CSIRO Computational InformaticsHobartTAS 7000Australia

Shellfish farms are closed.for harvest when microbial pollutants are *** pollutants are typically present in rainfall runoff from various land.uses in *** currently use a number of observable parameters(river flow,rainfall,salinity)as proxies to d.termine when to close *** have proposed.using the short term historical rainfall d.ta as a time-series pred.ction problem where we aim to pred.ct the closure of shellfish farms based.only on ***-series event pred.ction consists of two steps:(i)feature extraction,and.ii)pred.ction.A number of d.ta mining challenges exist for these scenarios:(i)which feature extraction method.best captures the rainfall pattern over successive d.ys that lead. to opening or closure of the farms?,(ii)The farm closure events occur infrequently and.this lead. to a class imbalance problem;the question is what is the best way to d.al with this problem?In this paper we have analysed.and.compared.d.fferent combinations of balancing method.(und.r-sampling and.over-sampling),feature extraction method.(cluster profile,curve fitting,Fourier Transform,Piecewise Aggregate Approximation,and.Wavelet Transform)and.learning algorithms(neural network.support vector machine,k.nearest neighbour,d.cision tree,and.Bayesian Network.to pred.ct closure events accurately consid.ring the above d.ta mining *** have id.ntified.the best combination of techniques to accurately pred.ct shellfish farm closure from rainfall,given the above d.ta mining challenges.

关键词： Aquaculture Shellfish farm closure d.ta mining Time series d.ta