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The emergence of pandemic influenza viruses

Protein & Cell 2010年第1期1卷 9-13页

作者： Yi Guan Dhanasekaran Vijaykrishna justin bahl Huachen Zhu Jia Wang Gavin J.D.Smith State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina

Pandemic influenza has posed an increasing threat to public health worldwide in the last *** the 20th century,three human pandemic influenza outbreaks occurred in 1918,1957 and 1968,causing significant mortality.A number of hypotheses have been proposed for the emergence and development of pandemic viruses,including direct introduction into humans from an avian origin and reassortment between avian and previously circulating human viruses,either directly in humans or via an intermediate mammalian ***,the evolutionary history of the pandemic viruses has been controversial,largely due to the lack of background genetic information and rigorous phylogenetic *** pandemic that emerged in early April 2009 in North America provides a unique opportunity to investigate its emergence and development both in human and animal *** genetic analyses of data accumulated through long-term influenza surveillance provided insights into the emergence of this novel pandemic *** this review,we summarise the recent literature that describes the evolutionary pathway of the pandemic *** also discuss the implications of these findings on the early detection and control of future pandemics.

关键词： pandemic influenza influenza virus pandemics control

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Comparing the transmission potential from sequence and surveillance data of 2009 North American influenza pandemic waves

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第1期8卷 240-252页

作者： Venkata R.Duvvuri Joseph T.Hicks Lambodhar Damodaran Martin Grunnill Thomas Braukmann Jianhong Wu Jonathan B.Gubbay Samir N.Patel justin bahl Public Health Ontario TorontoOntarioCanada Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology Faculty of MedicineUniversity of TorontoTorontoOntarioCanada Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Department of Mathematics and StatisticsYork UniversityTorontoOntarioCanada Center for the Ecology of Infectious Disease Department of Infectious DiseasesInstitute of BioinformaticsUniversity of GeorgiaAthensGeorgia Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Institute of BioinformaticsUniversity of GeorgiaAthensGeorgia Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School Singapore

Technological advancements in phylodynamic modeling coupled with the accessibility of real-time pathogen genetic data are increasingly important for understanding the infectious disease transmission *** this study,we compare the transmission potentials of North American influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 derived from sequence data to that derived from surveillance *** impact of the choice of tree-priors,informative epidemiological priors,and evolutionary parameters on the transmission potential estimation is *** American Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 hemagglutinin(HA)gene sequences are analyzed using the coalescent and birth-death tree prior models to estimate the basic reproduction number(R_(0)).Epidemiological priors gathered from published literature are used to simulate the birth-death skyline ***-sampling marginal likelihood estimation is conducted to assess model fit.A bibliographic search to gather surveillancebased R_(0)values were consistently lower(mean≤1.2)when estimated by coalescent models than by the birth-death models with informative priors on the duration of infectiousness(mean≥1.3 to≤2.88 days).The user-defined informative priors for use in the birth-death model shift the directionality of epidemiological and evolutionary parameters compared to non-informative *** there was no certain impact of clock rate and tree height on the R_(0)estimation,an opposite relationship was observed between coalescent and birth-death tree *** was no significant difference(p=0.46)between the birth-death model and surveillance R0 *** study concludes that treeprior methodological differences may have a substantial impact on the transmission potential estimation as well as the evolutionary *** study also reports a consensus between the sequence-based R_(0)estimation and surveillanceased R_(0)***,these outcomes shed light on the potential role of phylodynamic modeling to augment existing surveillance

关键词： Phylodynamics Pandemic 2009 H1N1 Reproduction number Coalescent growth models Birth-death models Pathogen sequence data Public health

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