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Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 infection dynamics in Ghana: Impact evaluation of integrated government and individual level interventions

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 381-397页

作者： Duah Dwomoh Samuel Iddi Bright Adu justice moses aheto Kojo Mensah Sedzro Julius Fobil Samuel Bosomprah Department of Biostatistics School of Public HealthCollege of Health SciencesUniversity of GhanaLegonAccraGreater AccraGhana Department of Statistics University of GhanaLegonAccraGreater AccraGhana Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research Department of ImmunologyCollege of Health SciencesUniversity of GhanaLegonGreater AccraGhana Department of Biological Environmental and Occupational HealthSchool of Public HealthCollege of Health SciencesUniversity of GhanaLegonAccraGreater AccraGhana

The raging COVID-19 pandemic is arguably the most important threat to global health *** there is currently a vaccine,preventive measures have been proposed to reduce the spread of infection but the efficacy of these interventions,and their likely impact on the number of COVID-19 infections is *** this study,we proposed the SEIQHRS model(susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantine-hospitalized-recovered-susceptible)model that predicts the trajectory of the epidemic to help plan an effective control strategy for COVID-19 in *** provided a short-term forecast of the early phase of the epidemic trajectory in Ghana using the generalized growth *** estimated the effective basic Reproductive number Re in real-time using three different estimation procedures and simulated worse case epidemic scenarios and the impact of integrated individual and government interventions on the epidemic in the long term using compartmental *** maximum likelihood estimates of Re and the corresponding 95%confidence interval was 2.04[95%CI:1.82e2.27;12th March-7th April 2020].The Re estimate using the exponential growth method was 2.11[95%CI:2.00e2.24]within the same *** Re estimate using time-dependent(TD)method showed a gradual decline of the Effective Reproductive Number since March 12,2020 when the first 2 index cases were recorded but the rate of transmission remains high(TD:Re=2.52;95%CI:[1.87e3.49]).The current estimate of Re based on the TD method is 1.74[95%CI:1.41 e2.10;(13th May 2020)]but with comprehensive integrated government and individual level interventions,the Re could reduce to 0.5 which is an indication of the epidemic dying out in the general *** results showed that enhanced government and individual-level interventions and the intensity of media coverage could have a substantial effect on suppressing transmission of new COVID-19 cases and reduced death rates in Ghana until such a time that a potent vaccine or drug is di

关键词： COVID-19 Mathematical modeling Intervention Effective reproductive number Infectious disease Differential equations

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Climate-influenced vector-borne diseases in Africa: a call to empower the next generation of African researchers for sustainable solutions

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贫困所致传染病(英文) 2024年第2期13卷 1-10页

作者： Obame-Nkoghe Judica?l Agossou Adjoavi Esse Mboowa Gerald Kamgang Basile Caminade Cyril Duke Dawn C. Githeko Andrew Karanja Ogega Obed M. Elloué Nestor Engone Sarr Fatou Bintou Nkoghe Dieudonné Kengne Pierre Ndam Nicaise T. Paupy Christophe Bockarie moses Otomo Patricks Voua Molecular and Cellular Biology Laboratory (LabMC) Biology Department University of Science and Technology of Masuku BP Franceville Gabon Ecology and Health Research Unit Interdisciplinary Center for Medical Research of Franceville BP Franceville Gabon Department of Zoology and Entomology Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences University of the Free State Private Bag x13 Phuthaditjhaba Republic of South Africa Laboratory of Pharmacology and Improved Traditional Medicines Department of Animal Physiology Faculty of Science and Technology University of Abomey-Calavi BP Cotonou Benin The African Center of Excellence in Bioinformatics and Data-Intensive Sciences Infectious Diseases Institute College of Health Sciences Makerere University P. O Box Kampala Uganda Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention African Union Commission Roosevelt Street P.O. Box WKAddis Ababa Ethiopia Centre for Research in Infectious Diseases P.O. Box Yaoundé Cameroon Earth System Physics Department The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste Italy Africa Research Excellence Fund Charterhouse Street London EC1MHR UK Community Health Support Program P.O. Box Kisumu Kenya The African Academy of Sciences Nairobi Kenya Center for Phylosophical Studies and Research (CERP) Omar Bongo University (UOB) BP Libreville Gabon UMRED Health Training and Research Unit University of Iba Der Thiam of Thiès BP Thiès Senegal National Parasitic Diseases Control Program Ministry of Health Libreville Gabon MIVEGEC Univ. Montpellier CNRS IRD Montpellier France MERIT IRD Paris Cité University Paris France Department of Parasitology Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research University of Ghana LG Accra Ghana School of Community Health Sciences Njala University Bo Sierra Leone

We look at the link between climate change and vector-borne diseases in low- and middle-income countries in Africa. The large endemicity and escalating threat of diseases such as malaria and arboviral diseases, intensified by climate change, disproportionately affects vulnerable communities globally. We highlight the urgency of prioritizing research and development, advocating for robust scientific inquiry to promote adaptation strategies, and the vital role that the next generation of African research leaders will play in addressing these challenges. Despite significant challenges such as funding shortages within countries, various pan-African-oriented funding bodies such as the African Academy of Sciences, the Africa Research Excellence Fund, the Wellcome Trust, the U.S. National Institutes of Health, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation as well as initiatives such as the African Research Initiative for Scientific Excellence and the Pan-African Mosquito Control Association, have empowered (or are empowering) these researchers by supporting capacity building activities, including continental and global networking, skill development, mentoring, and African-led research. This article underscores the urgency of increased national investment in research, proposing the establishment of research government agencies to drive evidence-based interventions. Collaboration between governments and scientific communities, sustained by pan-African funding bodies, is crucial. Through these efforts, African nations are likely to enhance the resilience and adaptive capacity of their systems and communities by navigating these challenges effectively, fostering scientific excellence and implementing transformative solutions against climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases.

关键词： Climate change Vector-borne diseases Africa Environmental justice Research and development Pan-African funding initiatives

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Philosophy and Economic Injustice in Nigeria

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Journal of Philosophy Study 2014年第7期4卷 473-482页

作者： Jonathan O. Chimakonam Irem moses Ogah Mulumba Obiajulu University of Calabar Nnamdi Azikiwe University

In philosophy, justice is a big and yet flexible concept. Thrasymacus sees it as the interest of the stronger party; while the Institute for Creation Research sees it as being legal and ethical, restorative and penal with regards to human rights. Political, legal, religious, social etc., are forms of justice but in this work, the authors are concerned with economic justice. First, the authors say that the Nigerian society is in disorder as a result of entrenched economic injustice partly inspired by its multi-ethnicity and multi-religiousity. The authors therefore, investigate what constitutes economic justice in a nation like Nigeria： Is it equitable distribution of national wealth to individuals, groups, and regions？ Or, is it the distribution of national wealth proportionate to the contributions of individuals, groups, and regions to the national treasury, or still the distribution of national wealth according to political power blocs which fall within regional and ethnic lines？ The aim of this paper is to establish that no matter which definition one adopts, there have been some regions in Nigeria namely Niger Delta or the South-South and southeast regions which account for over 80% of national income in oil revenue but which continue to experience sustained economic injustice in the distribution of national wealth, federal projects, basic amenities etc., since the end of the civil war in 1970. In the societal strata, the wage earners are at the receiving end of government＇s unjust taxation system which enables the high net-worth individuals to pay less and most times evade taxation on their stupendous income. In another scenario, poor citizens are unjustly treated in the sharing of national wealth when compared with the wealthy class for example; they live in areas lacking in basic amenities; they are deprived access to loans to finance their businesses, agricultural project, and other crafts by the premium placed on collateral policies. We therefore conclude t

关键词： philosophy economic injustice Nigeria corruption marginalization justice Niger Delta

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