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Forecasting China's primary energy demand based on an improved AI model

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2018年第1期16卷 36-48页

作者： Shuxing Chen junbing huang School of Economics Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

An improved energy demand forecasting model is built based on the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL) bounds testing approach and an adaptive genetic algorithm(AGA) to obtain credible energy demand forecasting results. The ARDL bounds analysis is first employed to select the appropriate input variables of the energy demand model. After the existence of a cointegration relationship in the model is confirmed, the AGA is then employed to optimize the coefficients of both linear and quadratic forms with gross domestic product, economic structure, urbanization,and technological progress as the input variables. On the basis of historical annual data from1985 to 2015, the simulation results indicate that the proposed model has greater accuracy and reliability than conventional optimization methods. The predicted results of the proposed model also demonstrate that China will demand approximately 4.9, 5.6, and 6.1 billion standard tons of coal equivalent in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively.

关键词： Primary energy demand adaptive genetic algorithm cointegration

The effect of human capital on energy consumption:Evidence from an extended version of STIRPAT framework

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2022年第2期20卷 136-146页

作者： Yajun Wang junbing huang Xiaochen Cai School of Economics Southwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChengdu611130China

Human capital is an important aspect of energy consumption,exerting crucial effects on economic growth,technological progress,and economic *** paper presents an in-depth investigation of the effect of human capital on energy consumption using an extended version of the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology *** estimated results using a panel dataset covering China’s 30 provincial regions during the period 1997-2018 and applying fixed effects with instrumental variables and the generalized method of moments indicated that an increase in human capital significantly drove energy consumption.A 1%increase in human capital increased energy consumption by approximately 0.3%.A two-step channel analysis to test scale,technical,and structural effects revealed that the positive effect of human capital on energy consumption is based primarily on the scale ***,highly educated human capital alleviates the energy pressure of this *** contrast to the scale effect,both the technical and structural effects of human capital reduced energy consumption,and this reduction is primarily correlated with enterprises’utility-oriented technological ***,we present strategic energy control policy implications related to human capital.

关键词： Energy consumption Human capital Scale effect Structural effect Technical effect

Prediction of primary energy demand in China based on AGAEDE optimal model

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2016年第1期16卷 16-29页

作者： Lu Liu junbing huang Shiwei Yu School of Economics Southwestern University of Finance and Economics School of Economics and Management China University of Geosciences

In this article,we present an application of Adaptive Genetic Algorithm Energy Demand Estimation(AGAEDE) optimal model to improve the efficiency of energy demand *** coefficients of the two forms of the model(both linear and quadratic) are optimized by AGA using factors,such as GDP,population,urbanization rate,and R&D inputs together with energy consumption structure,that affect *** the spurious regression phenomenon occurs for a wide range of time series analysis in econometrics,we also discuss this problem for the current artificial intelligence *** simulation results show that the proposed model is more accurate and reliable compared with other existing methods and the China's energy demand will be 5.23 billion TCE in 2020 according to the average results of the AGAEDE optimal *** discussion illustrates that there will be great pressure for China to fulfill the planned goal of controlling energy demand set in the National Energy Demand Project(2014—2020).

关键词： AGAEDE optimal model spurious regression artificial intelligence model energy demand

Effect of China’s technology spillovers on energy intensity in Africa

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2022年第2期20卷 168-176页

作者： Mesfin Welderufael Berhe junbing huang Abel Dula Wedajo School of Economics Southwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChengdu611130China School of Business Administration Southwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChengdu611130China

Empirical studies on the effects of China-African economic relations on energy intensity in Africa are *** fill the gap in the literature,this study investigates the technology spillover effects of the China-Africa trade and investment relations on energy *** uses both linear and nonlinear dynamic panel estimation methods for 42 African countries from 2003 to *** results show that China's technology spillover through imports significantly reduces energy intensity in *** findings are consistent across specifications and sample ***,the technology spillover coming from foreign direct investment(FDI)improves energy intensity,particularly in lower-middle-income African *** dynamic threshold estimation results show that countries'absorptive ability is important for technology spillover effects of FDI and imports on energy *** results suggest that countries'absorptive capacity should be increased to maximize the benefits of trade and investment technology spillovers.

关键词： Energy intensity Technology spillovers FDI Trade and Dynamic panel model

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城镇家庭负债存量与消费不平等

南开经济研究 2022年第10期 92-108页

作者：栾炳江陈建邹红黄俊兵西南财经大学中国西部经济研究院 611130 西南财经大学经济学院 611130

消费均衡发展是促进内循环、实现共同富裕的重要内容。本文基于负债存量视角,利用中国家庭金融调查四期数据探究城镇家庭负债对消费不平等的影响,以及可能的异质性和作用机制。研究发现,负债存量增加会显著提高城镇家庭总消费、耐用品... 详细信息

消费均衡发展是促进内循环、实现共同富裕的重要内容。本文基于负债存量视角,利用中国家庭金融调查四期数据探究城镇家庭负债对消费不平等的影响,以及可能的异质性和作用机制。研究发现,负债存量增加会显著提高城镇家庭总消费、耐用品消费和非耐用品消费的不平等,尤其会显著拉大居住在高房价地区和受教育水平低的城镇家庭的消费不平等;与非住房负债相比,住房负债存量对消费不平等的放大作用更大。机制分析发现,城镇家庭负债存量主要通过强化中等收入群体的流动性约束来降低其消费水平,而不影响高收入群体的消费水平,从而扩大了中等收入群体面临的消费不平等程度;负债存量还会通过数字金融使用深度和财富分配效应拉大消费不平等程度。

关键词：负债存量消费不平等流动性约束数字金融财富分配效应

The effect of human capital on energy consumption:Evidence from an extended version of STIRPAT framework

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Effect of China’s technology spillovers on energy intensity in Africa

中国人口(资源与环境)(英文版) 2022年第2期

作者： Yajun Wang junbing huang Xiaochen Cai

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中国人口(资源与环境)(英文版) 2022年第2期

作者： Mesfin Welderufael Berhe junbing huang Abel Dula Wedajo

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基于光纤光栅传感器的飞行器结构健康监测

信息通信 2013年第2期26卷 27-29页

作者：于洋黄俊斌顾宏灿吴京姚文明海军工程大学兵器工程系湖北武汉430033

综述了光纤光栅传感器在飞行器结构健康监测中的研究现状,概述了光纤光栅传感器的工作原理和特点,研究了基于光纤光栅传感器的飞行器结构健康监测系统的组成和主要研究内容。

关键词：光纤光栅传感器结构健康监测飞行器

剥离膨胀石墨/熔融盐材料的制备及其性能研究

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太阳能学报 2015年第3期36卷 630-635页

作者：肖俊兵黄金广东工业大学材料与能源学院广州510006

采用水溶液法配以超声波剥离和分散手段,使用二元硝酸熔融盐Na NO3-KNO3和膨胀石墨(EG)制备出剥离膨胀石墨/熔融盐复合相变储能材料。通过扫描电镜(SEM)、能量色散谱仪(EDX)、透射电镜(TEM)、X-射线衍射(XRD)、导热性能、差示扫描量热(D... 详细信息

采用水溶液法配以超声波剥离和分散手段,使用二元硝酸熔融盐Na NO3-KNO3和膨胀石墨(EG)制备出剥离膨胀石墨/熔融盐复合相变储能材料。通过扫描电镜(SEM)、能量色散谱仪(EDX)、透射电镜(TEM)、X-射线衍射(XRD)、导热性能、差示扫描量热(DSC)等表征和测试手段,研究添加不同质量分率的EG对复合相变储能材料热物理性能的影响。结果表明:利用超声波处理使EG得以剥离成石墨片并均匀分散在二元硝酸熔盐中,制得的复合相变储能材料微观结构均一,导热性能大大改善,其导热系数高达4.884 W/(m·K),相变潜热随EG质量分数的增大而逐渐降低,但变化不大,相变峰值温度约224℃。该制备工艺简单,制备出的复合材料在中温储热领域具有良好的应用前景。

关键词：熔融硝酸盐膨胀石墨超声波热性能