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A Review of Research on the Record-Breaking Precipitation Event in Henan Province,China,July 2021

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第8期40卷 1485-1500页

作者： Qinghong ZHANG Rumeng LI juanzhen sun Feng LU Jun XU Fan ZHANG Department of Atmospheric&Oceanic sciences School of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China HIWeather International Coordination Office Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China National Center for Atmospheric Science BoulderCO 80307United States Innovation Center for Feng Yun Meteorological Satellite National Satellite Meteorological Center(National Center for Space Weather)China Meteorological AdministrationsBeijing 100049China National Meteorological Center of China Beijing 100081China

A record-breaking precipitation event,with a maximum 24-h(1-h)precipitation of 624 mm(201.9 mm)observed at Zhengzhou Weather Station,occurred in Henan Province,China,in July ***,all global operational forecast models failed to predict the intensity and location of maximum precipitation for this *** unexpected heavy rainfall caused 398 deaths and 120.06 billion RMB of economic *** high-societal-impact of this event has drawn much attention from the research *** article provides a research review of the event from the perspectives of observations,analysis,dynamics,predictability,and the connection with climate warming and *** reanalysis data show that there was an anomalous large-scale circulation pattern that resulted in abundant moisture supply to the region of *** mesoscale systems(a mesoscale low pressure system,a barrier jet,and downslope gravity current)were found by recent high-resolution model simulation and data assimilation studies to have contributed to the local intensification of the ***,observational analysis has suggested that an abrupt increase in graupel through microphysical processes after the sequential merging of three convective cells contributed to the record-breaking *** these findings have aided in our understanding of the extreme rainfall event,preliminary analysis indicated that the practical predictability of the extreme rainfall for this event was rather *** contrary influences of climate warming and urbanization on precipitation extremes as revealed by two studies could add further challenges to the *** conclude that data sharing and collaboration between meteorological and hydrological researchers will be crucial in future research on high-impact weather events.

关键词： extreme precipitation observation dynamics predictability climate warming urbanization

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Assimilating Surface Observations in a Four-Dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Data Assimilation System to Improve the Analysis and Forecast of a Squall Line Case

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第10期33卷 1106-1119页

作者： Xingchao CHEN Kun ZHAO juanzhen sun Bowen ZHOU Wen-Chau LEE Key Laboratory for Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE and School of Atmospheric Science Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210046China National Center for Atmospheric Research BoulderColorado 80301USA

This paper examines how assimilating surface observations can improve the analysis and forecast ability of a four- dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System （VDRAS）. Observed surface temperature and winds are assimilated together with radar radial velocity and reflectivity into a convection-permitting model using the VDRAS four-dimensional variational （4DVAR） data assimilation system. A squall-line case observed during a field campaign is selected to investigate the performance of the technique. A single observation experiment shows that assimilating surface observations can influence the analyzed fields in both the horizontal and vertical directions. The surface-based cold pool, divergence and gust front of the squall line are all strengthened through the assimilation of the single surface observation. Three experiments--assimilating radar data only, assimilating radar data with surface data blended in a mesoscale background, and assimilating both radar and surface observations with a 4DVAR cost function--are conducted to examine the impact of the surface data assimilation. Independent surface and wind profiler observations are used for verification. The result shows that the analysis and forecast are improved when surface observations are assimilated in addition to radar observations. It is also shown that the additional surface data can help improve the analysis and forecast at low levels. Surface and low-level features of the squall line-- including the surface warm inflow, cold pool, gust front, and low-level wind--are much closer to the observations after assimilating the surface data in VDRAS.

关键词： VDRAS 4-D data assimilation radar data surface data squall line

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Lessons Learned from the Tragedy during the 100 km Ultramarathon Race in Baiyin,Gansu Province on 22 May 2021

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第11期38卷 1803-1810页

作者： Qinghong ZHANG Chan-Pang NG Kan DAI Jun XU Jian TANG juanzhen sun Mu MU Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China HIWeather International Coordination Office Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081China National Center for Atmospheric Science BoulderCO 80307United States Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

Twenty-one runners died of hypothermia during the 100 km Ultramarathon Mountain race in Baiyin,Gansu Province on 22 May *** hypothermia was caused by a combination of low temperatures,precipitation,and high winds associated with a typical large-scale cold front passing by the race site that *** on historical hourly records of 13 meteorological surface stations over the past six years,temperature(3.0°C)and apparent temperature(−5.1°C)at 1200 LST as well as gust wind speed(11.2 m s^(−1))at 1100 LST on the day of the tragedy were found to be within the top or bottom 5th percentile for the month of *** precipitation was only moderate at this time,but when temperature lower than 3.0°C,gust wind speed greater than 11.2 m s^(−1),and precipitation greater than 0.1 mm for any adjacent three hours were combined together,1200 LST 22 May fell within the top 0.1%of *** European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting model produced reasonably good forecasts of the low temperature and high wind one day and seven days before the event,*** on this study,lessons that can be learned from this tragedy are summarized from an academic perspective:Hazard and impact forecasts of high-impact weather events should be developed to increase the value of weather *** forecasts should be issued by government weather agencies and communicated well to the *** more importantly,knowledge of how to evaluate the impact of weather should be delivered to the public in the *** would like to extend our deepest condolences to the families and loved ones of the people who lost their lives in this tragedy,including 21 runners and one *** our efforts honor those who lost their lives by highlighting the value of weather forecasting and calling for greater action in the future.

关键词： low temperature high wind precipitation value of weather forecast

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Increasing the value of weather-related warnings

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Science Bulletin 2019年第10期64卷 647-649页

作者： Qinghong Zhang Liye Li Beth Ebert Brian Golding David Johnston Brian Mills Shannon Panchuk Sally Potter Michael Riemer juanzhen sun Andrea Taylor Sarah Jones Paolo Ruti Julia Keller HIWeather International Coordination Office Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Deutscher Wetterdienst Research and Development Offenbach 6306乙 Germany World Weather Research Division World Meteorological Organization Geneva 1211 Switzerland Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne Victoria 3001 Australia Met Office Exeter Devon EXI 3PB UK GNS Science/Massey University Willington 6140 New Zealand University of Waterloo and Environment and Climate Change Canada Waterloo N2L 3G1 Canada Institute of Atmospheric Physics University of Mainz Mainz 55128 Germany National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO 80307-3000 USA University of Leeds Leeds LS2 9JT UK

Despite advances in forecasting and emergency preparedness, weather related disasters continue to cost many lives, to displace populations and to cause wide-spread damage. Therefore, High Impact Weather Project (HIWeather), a 10-year research project (https://***/en/resources/buHetin/hiweather-10-yearresearch- project), was established in 2016 by WM0 (World Meteorology Organization) WWRP (World Weather Research Program: https://***/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/wwrp_new_en. html). HIWeather aimed at achieving dramatic improvements in the effectiveness of weather-related hazard warnings, following recent advancement in numerical weather prediction at km-scale and in disaster risk reduction. The implementation plan was developed under the concept of warning chain, which comprises all components and the connections between to a successful weather-hazards warning: observations, weather forecast, hazard forecast, impact forecast, the generation of warnings and decision making (Fig. 1). A successful warning relies on information produced by the meteorological and related physical sciences, thus its effectiveness of delivery depends on applications of social, behavioral and economic sciences. The workshop of WM0 High Impact Weather Project was held in Beijing during 20-22 November of 2018, attracted a diverse and interdisciplinary group of over 70 scientists from 25 countries in the broad field of physical and social science, during which all elements of the warning chain were discussed critically.

关键词： Despite advances forecasting and emergency weather related disasters

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WRF-DA中地面观测资料同化方案的改进与应用

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气象学报 2021年第1期79卷 104-118页

作者：张鑫宇陈敏孙娟珍范水勇仲跻芹张舒婷北京城市气象研究院北京100089 美国国家大气研究中心科罗拉多博尔德80307

为了改善地面自动气象站观测数据在WRF-DA(the Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Data Assimilation)系统中的同化应用效果,提高数值模式的预报性能,对WRF-DA地面资料同化方案中温度和风速订正方案进行改进,形成地面资料同化更... 详细信息

为了改善地面自动气象站观测数据在WRF-DA(the Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Data Assimilation)系统中的同化应用效果,提高数值模式的预报性能,对WRF-DA地面资料同化方案中温度和风速订正方案进行改进,形成地面资料同化更新方案。通过考虑地形高度差异对同化效果的影响,调整同化方案中地面要素由实际地形高度订正到模式高度的同化订正方案,提升地面观测温度及风速订正值的合理性。并进一步分析了2017年7月5日个例试验结果及2017年7月整月的批量试验,发现相比于使用原方案同化后的预报效果,选取更新方案同化地面自动气象站观测资料的模式预报效果在前9 h温度和风速的预报误差明显降低,且在24 h预报时效内更新方案对于模式预报均起到改善作用。

关键词：自动气象站观测数据资料同化更新方案

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基于VDRAS的快速更新雷达四维变分分析系统

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应用气象学报 2016年第3期27卷 257-272页

作者：陈明轩高峰孙娟珍肖现刘莲王迎春中国气象局北京城市气象研究所北京100089 南京大学大气科学学院南京210046 美国国家大气研究中心科罗拉多州博尔德co80307 中国气象科学研究院北京100081 北京市气象局北京100089

基于雷达资料快速更新四维变分同化（RR4DVar）技术和三维数值云模式,初步研发了一个针对对流尺度数值模拟的快速更新雷达四维变分分析系统。系统通过对京津冀6部多普勒天气雷达资料进行RR4DVar同化,并融合5 min自动气象站观测和中尺度... 详细信息

基于雷达资料快速更新四维变分同化（RR4DVar）技术和三维数值云模式,初步研发了一个针对对流尺度数值模拟的快速更新雷达四维变分分析系统。系统通过对京津冀6部多普勒天气雷达资料进行RR4DVar同化,并融合5 min自动气象站观测和中尺度数值模式结果,可快速分析得到12-18 min更新的低层大气三维动力、热力场的对流尺度结构特征。针对2009年7月22日发生在京津冀的一次强风暴个例,通过一系列敏感性试验,并利用局地加密资料进行检验对比,表明有效的雷达资料RR4DVar同化及自动气象站和中尺度模式资料融合方案、恰当的中尺度背景场设置和动力约束方法是获得合理结果的关键。研究也表明：恰当的系统配置能够模拟出与对流生消发展密切相关的近风暴环境特征,包括低层入流、垂直风切变、低层辐合上升和暖舌等,以及风暴自身形成的冷池、出流等与风暴演变密切相关的对流尺度结构。

关键词：雷达四维变分快速更新对流风暴敏感性试验

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基于雷达四维变分分析系统的强对流高分辨率模拟个例分析和批量检验

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气象学报 2016年第3期74卷 421-441页

作者：陈明轩肖现高峰雷蕾王迎春孙娟珍中国气象局北京城市气象研究所北京100089 南京大学大气科学学院南京210046 北京市气象台北京100089 北京市气象局北京100089 美国国家大气研究中心博尔德co80307

利用以雷达资料快速更新四维变分同化(RR4DVar)技术和三维数值云模式为核心的模拟分析系统,通过同化京津冀区域6部新一代天气雷达逐6 min的径向速度和反射率因子资料,并融合区域自动站逐5 min观测和中尺度数值模式结果,对发生在京津冀... 详细信息

利用以雷达资料快速更新四维变分同化(RR4DVar)技术和三维数值云模式为核心的模拟分析系统,通过同化京津冀区域6部新一代天气雷达逐6 min的径向速度和反射率因子资料,并融合区域自动站逐5 min观测和中尺度数值模式结果,对发生在京津冀地区的18个对流风暴"事件"进行了高分辨率数值模拟,开展了个例分析和全部模拟结果的检验评估。个例分析结果表明,模拟的低层三维动力、热动力和水汽特征可以明确解释复杂地形条件下对流风暴的局地新生、组织化和线状中尺度对流系统(MCS)的形成。高分辨率模拟结果也明确指示了线状中尺度对流系统中对流风暴单体不断新生(再生)和"后向传播"的机制,以及地形强迫在风暴形成和演变中的重要作用。基于一部风廓线雷达、两部地基微波辐射计、一个秒级探空和一个边界层观测塔等局地高频非常规观测数据对18个对流风暴"事件"模拟结果的检验表明,0—3 km的风速、风向和温度的模拟误差(包括偏差和均方根误差)总体较小。其中,最低模式层(187.5 m)风速偏差和均方根误差分别在-0.5和0.9 m/s以内,最高检验层(2.8125 km)风速偏差和均方根误差分别在-0.9和1.6 m/s以内,风速误差随高度逐渐增大;风向偏差在14°—22°,风向均方根误差小于38°;温度偏差和均方根误差分别在-1和1.8℃以内。系统模拟的低层风速、风向和温度的偏差和均方根误差在对流风暴内部稍大于外部。上述研究表明,该系统模拟结果对对流风暴生消、发展及生命史特征的临近预报和预警具有重要指示意义。

关键词：雷达四维变分同化对流数值模拟检验

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雷达资料同化方法:回顾与前瞻

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气象科技进展 2016年第3期6卷 17-27页

作者：孙娟珍陈明轩范水勇美国国家大气研究中心博尔德co80307 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所北京100089

自20年前第一个业务天气雷达观测网在美国建立以后,气象界在多普勒天气雷达资料同化方面的研究和应用已取得了显著成果。中国在21世纪初也完成了一个覆盖大多数地区的多普勒天气雷达观测网,在实时监测及预警对流天气、降水及台风等方面... 详细信息

自20年前第一个业务天气雷达观测网在美国建立以后,气象界在多普勒天气雷达资料同化方面的研究和应用已取得了显著成果。中国在21世纪初也完成了一个覆盖大多数地区的多普勒天气雷达观测网,在实时监测及预警对流天气、降水及台风等方面起到了重要作用。但是,中国在同化雷达资料以改进细网格数值模式的初始化精度方面的研究及应用仍然处在起步阶段。对数值模式中同化雷达资料利用方法的研究和应用进行了简短回顾,也对未来该领域研究的重点研究方向提出建议。

关键词：雷达资料资料同化对流天气降水

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雷达资料快速更新四维变分同化中增加地面资料同化对强对流临近数值预报的影响

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气象学报 2021年第6期79卷 921-942页

作者：刘瑞婷陈明轩肖现秦睿高峰杨璐吴剑坤孙娟珍北京城市气象研究院北京100089 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京100081 美国国家大气研究中心科罗拉多州博尔德80307

基于雷达资料快速更新四维变分同化(RR4DVar)技术和三维数值云模式发展的快速更新雷达四维变分分析系统(VDRAS),通过在系统中加入地面自动气象站观测资料的同化方法,对发生在北京地区的10个强对流过程开展了地面资料同化的高分辨率模拟... 详细信息

基于雷达资料快速更新四维变分同化(RR4DVar)技术和三维数值云模式发展的快速更新雷达四维变分分析系统(VDRAS),通过在系统中加入地面自动气象站观测资料的同化方法,对发生在北京地区的10个强对流过程开展了地面资料同化的高分辨率模拟分析和检验评估,并与已经业务使用的地面资料融合方法进行对比。研究结果发现,地面观测资料同化使边界层1 km高度以下的分析场改善最为明显,风速和风向的均方根误差分别平均降低0.1 m/s和7.2°,温度的均方根误差降低0.2℃。模式最低层100 m高度的风速均方根误差降低0.5 m/s,风速的误差随高度上升逐渐增大。模式最低层风向的均方根误差降低15.5°,温度的均方根误差降低0.4℃,且1.5 km高度以下的温度偏差都减小。区域内地面10 m高风速的均方根误差平均降低0.2 m/s,风向的均方根误差降低10.8°,地面2 m气温的偏差也降低。随着预报时效的延长,地面温度和风场的误差不断增大,但地面资料同化方法在一定程度上可以提高1 h内地面气象要素的预报效果。对2019年5月17日北京地区局地强对流新生和增强过程的详细分析表明,地面自动气象站观测资料的同化方法相对于融合,可以通过更细致准确地分析低层大气的热动力特征,改善低层气象要素的预报效果。在此基础上,通过探究对流单体的局地触发机理发现,海风锋辐合线与城市的相互作用一定程度上影响了对流的局地新生和发展,该同化方法可以进一步提高北京地区局地突发强对流的临近数值预报能力。

关键词：雷达四维变分分析系统数据同化地面观测数值模拟临近预报

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Impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal forecast of the 2014/15 marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 24-31页

作者： Tiantian Tang Jiaying He Huihang sun Jingjia Luo Institute for Climate and Application Research(ICAR)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

A remarkable marine heatwave,known as the“Blob”,occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016,which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 *** study employed two assimilation schemes based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science(NUIST-CFS 1.0)to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal prediction of this extreme marine *** sea surface temperature(SST)nudging scheme assimilates SST only,while the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)scheme assimilates observations from the surface to the deep *** latter notably improves the forecasting skill for subsurface temperature anomalies,especially at the depth of 100-300 m(the lower layer),outperforming the SST nudging *** excels in predicting both horizontal and vertical heat transport in the lower layer,contributing to improved forecasts of the lower-layer warming during the *** improvements stem from the assimilation of subsurface observational data,which are important in predicting the upper-ocean *** results suggest that assimilating ocean data with the EnKF scheme significantly enhances the accuracy in predicting subsurface temperature anomalies during the Blob and offers better understanding of its underlying mechanisms.

关键词： Seasonal forecast Ocean data assimilation Marine heatwave Subsurface temperature

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