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Delays to Large Construction Projects in Ghana： A Risk Overview

Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture 2014年第3期8卷 367-377页

作者： joseph ignatius teye buertey Augustine Kaku Miezah Theophilus Adjei Kumi Faculty of Engineering & Computing Pentecost University College Kaneshie # KN 1739 Ghana Takoradi Thermal Power Station Volta River Authority Takoradi # TD237 Ghana Oepartment of Building Technology Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology Kumasi # UPO 000 Ghana

Delay to large scale projects, which is as a result of actions or inactions of some project stakeholders, is becoming a global phenomena and Ghana is no exception. The objective of the research is to identify, rate and rank the most significant risk factors that causes delay on projects and examine the social impact of these delays to recommend modalities to help mitigate these risk factors. The study adopted quantitative methods with the distribution of 144 questionnaires to built environment professionals receiving a response rate of 75.7%. The instrument listed 58 common factors under eight categories that contribute to the causes of delay for respondents to rate. Analysis of data non-parametric test revealed that client, contractor, material and finance category factors significantly resulted in the schedule delay of large infrastructural projects. The survey analysis revealed that micro-factors that result in delays to large construction projects are time constraint, cost overrun, payment problems, dispute and litigation. The research recommended the following modalities to minimize such delays： availability of resources, improved communication and coordination, proper scope definition and feasibilities, utilization of modern technology, appropriate application of technologically based systems and competent project management＇s structures.

关键词： Cost overruns delayed payment disputes risk and social impact.

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Successful Delivery of Infrastructural Projects： Epistemic Overview of Cost Risk and Uncertainties

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Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture 2012年第9期6卷 1218-1229页

作者： joseph ignatius teye Buerte)t Emmanuel Abeere-Inga Theophilus Adjei Kumi Pentecost University College Open University of Malaysia Accra KN 1739 Ghana Faculty of Engineering Accra Institute of Technology Accra CT 2041 Ghana Department of Building Technology KNUST (Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology) Kumasi Ghana

The process of decision making and risk analysis are essential tasks along the construction project cycle. Over the years, construction practitioners and researchers have used various methods, tools and techniques to evaluate risk and assist in making more concise decisions. Most practitioners, however, rely on their expert judgment, past experience, intuition, acquired and accumulated knowledge and gut feelings to make decisions. Aleatory （natural, heterogeneity and stochasticity） and epistemic （subjective, ignorance） are the two major types of uncertainties observed in natural sciences. Practitioners traditionally deal with aleatory uncertainty through probabilistic analysis based on historical data （frequentist approach）; and epistemic uncertainty, on the other hand, handled through the Bayesian approach which has limitations since it requires a priori assumption. This paper reports the application of the DST （Dempster Shafer Theory） of evidence to determine the most critical risk factors affecting project cost contingencies using their epistemic probabilities of occurrence. The paper further discuses how these factors can be managed to enhance successful delivery of infrastructural projects. It uses the mixed methodology, with data gathered through structured questionnaires distributed to construction clients, contractors, professionals and experts in the built environment. The research revealed that design risk, financial risk and economic risk were most important cost risk categorizations. In particular, scope changes, incomplete scope definition, incomplete design, changes in specification, micro and macroeconomic indicators and delayed payment problems were identified as the most important risk factors to be considered during the cost contingency estimation process, hence successful delivery of infrastructural projects. The paper concludes by recommending modalities for managing the contingency evolution process of risk estimation to enhance successful deliv

关键词： Epistemic uncertainty aleatory uncertainty risk cost management dempster shaffer theory.

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