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Research advances on internal processes affecting tropical cyclone intensity change from 2018–2022

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第1期12卷 10-29页

作者： Xiaomin Chen Christopher M.Rozoff Robert F.Rogers Kristen L.Corbosiero Dandan Tao Jian-Feng Gu Falko Judt Eric A.Hendricks Yuqing Wang Michael M.Bell Daniel P.Stern Kate D.Musgrave john a.knaff john Kaplan NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory MiamiUSA University of Alabama in Huntsville HuntsvilleUSA National Center for Atmospheric Research BoulderUSA University at Albany/State University of New York AlbanyUSA University of Bergen BergenNorway Nanjing University NanjingChina University of Reading ReadingUK University of Hawaii at Manoa HonoluluUSA Colorado State University Fort CollinsUSA University Corporation for Atmospheric Research MontereyUSA NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research Fort CollinsUSA Department of Atmospheric and Earth Science University of Alabama in HuntsvilleHuntsvilleUSA

This contribution summarizes the significant progress in a variety of topic areas related to internal tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change processes over 2018–2022 from the WMO Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-10).These topic areas include surface and boundary layer processes;TC internal structure and microphysical processes;and,radiation interactions with TCs.Recent studies better frame the uncertainty in the surface drag and enthalpy coefficients at high wind speeds.These parameters greatly impact TC intensity and it is therefore important that more direct measurements of these boundary layer parameters are made.Particularly significant scientific strides have been made in TC boundary layers.These advancements have been achieved through improved coupled models,large-eddy simulations,theoretical advance-ments,and detailed observations.It is now clear that the research field needs to better represent the eddy viscosity throughout the depth of the boundary layer.Furthermore,detailed study of coherent structures in TC boundary layers will likely be a propitious direction for the research community.Meanwhile,in-depth observational field campaigns and assiduous data analysis have made significant headway into verifying theory and modeling studies of intensification processes related to TC vortex alignment,efficient latent heating distributions,and overall 3D structure.Substantial efforts have also been made to better understand the intricate roles radiative processes play in TC evolution and intensity change.Finally,some promising progress has been made in the development of time-dependent theories of TC intensification and the predictability of internal TC intensity change.Overall,there have been well-earned gains in the understanding of intensity change processes intrinsic to the TC system,but the journey is not complete.This paper highlights some of the most relevant and important research areas that are still shedding new light into internal factors governing TC intensity change.

关键词： Tropical cyclone Intensity Internal dynamics Boundary-layer processes Observations Predictability

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A review of recent advances(2018–2021)on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives,part 1:Dynamical model guidance

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第1期12卷 30-49页

作者： Zhan Zhang Weiguo Wang James D.Doyle Jonathan Moskaitis William A.Komaromi Julian Heming Linus Magnusson john P.Cangialosi Levi Cowan Michael Brennan Suhong Ma Ananda Kumar Das Hosomi Takuya Peter Clegg Thomas Birchard john a.knaff john Kaplan Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma Ikegami Masaaki Liguang Wu Eric Blake NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center USA SAIC@NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center USA Naval Research Laboratory USA Met Office UK ECMWF ReadingUK NOAA/NWS/NCEP National Hurricane Center USA Joint Typhoon Warning Center USA China Meteorological Administration China Indian Meteorological Department India Japan Meteorological Agency Japan Bureau of Meteorology Australia Central Pacific Hurricane Center USA NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research USA NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division USA Fudan University ShanghaiChina IMSG@NOAA/NWS/OSTI USA

This review summarizes the rapporteur report on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change from the operational perspective,as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC-10)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9,2022.The accuracy of TC intensity forecasts issued by operational forecast centers depends on three aspects:real-time observations,TC dynamical model forecast guidance,and techniques and methods used by forecasters.The rapporteur report covers the progress made over the past four years(2018–2021)in all three aspects.This review focuses on the progress of dynamical model forecast guidance.The companion paper(Part II)summarizes the advance from operational centers.The dynamical model forecast guidance continues to be the main factor leading to the improvement of operational TC intensity forecasts.Here,we describe recent advances and developments of major operational regional dynamical TC models and their intensity forecast performance,including HWRF,HMON,COAMPS-TC,Met Office Regional Model,CMA-TYM,and newly developed HAFS.The performance of global dynamical models,including NOAA's GFS,Met Office Global Model(MOGM),JMA's GSM,and IFS(ECMWF),has also been improved in recent years due to their increased horizontal and vertical resolution as well as improved data assimilation systems.Recent challenging cases of rapid intensification are presented and discussed.

关键词： Dynamical models Intensity forecast Operational forecasts Tropical cyclone

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A review of recent advances(2018–2021)on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives,part 2:Forecasts by operational centers

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第1期12卷 50-63页

作者： Weiguo Wang Zhan Zhang john P.Cangialosi Michael Brennan Levi Cowan Peter Clegg Hosomi Takuya Ikegami Masaaki Ananda Kumar Das Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma john a.knaff john Kaplan Thomas Birchard James D.Doyle Julian Heming Jonathan Moskaitis Suhong Ma Charles Sampson Liguang Wu Eric Blake NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center USA NOAA/NWS/NCEP National Hurricane Center USA Joint Typhoon Warning Center USA Bureau of Meteorology Australia Japan Meteorological Agency Japan Indian Meteorological Department India NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research USA NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division USA Central Pacific Hurricane Center USA Naval Research Laboratory USA Met Office UK China Meteorological Administration China Fudan University ShanghaiChina IMSG@NOAA/NWS/OSTI USA

This paper summarizes the progress and activities of tropical cyclone(TC)operational forecast centers during the last four years(2018–2021).It is part II of the review on TC intensity change from the operational perspective in the rapporteur report presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9,2022.Part I of the review has focused on the progress of dynamical model forecast guidance.This part discusses the performance of TC intensity and rapid intensification forecasts from several operational centers.It is shown that the TC intensity forecast errors have continued to decrease since the 9th IWTC held in 2018.In particular,the improvement of rapid intensification forecasts has accelerated,compared with years before 2018.Consensus models,operational procedures,tools and techniques,as well as recent challenging cases from 2018 to 2021 identified by operational forecast centers are described.Research needs and recommendations are also discussed.©2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration.Publishing services by Elsevier B.V.on behalf of KeAi Communication Co.Ltd.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://***/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

关键词： Forecast error Intensity forecast Operational forecasts Tropical cyclone

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Estimating tropical cyclone surface winds: Current status, emerging technologies, historical evolution, and a look to the future

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2021年第3期10卷 125-150页

作者： john a.knaff Charles R.Sampson Matthew E.Kucas Christopher J.Slocum Michael J.Brennan Thomas Meissner Lucrezia Ricciardulli Alexis Mouche Nicolas Reul Mary Morris Galina Chirokova Philippe Caroff NOAA/Center for Satellite Applications and Research Fort CollinsCOUSA Naval Research Laboratory MontereyCAUSA Joint Typhoon Warning Center Pearl HarborHawaiiUSA NOAA/NWS/NCEP National Hurricane Center MiamiFLUSA Remote Sensing Systems Santa RosaCAUSA Ifremer Univ.BrestCNRSIRDLaboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et SpatialeIUEM29280 BrestFrance NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory PasadenaCAUSA Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere Fort CollinsCOUSA Tropical Cyclone/Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Météo FranceRéunionFrance

This article provides a review of tropical cyclone(TC)surface wind estimation from an operational forecasting perspective.First,we provide a summary of operational forecast center practices and historical databases.Next,we discuss current and emerging objective estimates of TC surface winds,including algorithms,archive datasets,and individual algorithm strengths and weaknesses as applied to operational TC surface wind forecast parameters.Our review leads to recommendations about required surface coverage—an area covering at least 1100 km from center of TC at a 2-km resolution in the inner-core,and at a frequency of at least once every 6 h.This is enough coverage to support a complete analysis of the TC surface wind field from center to the extent of the 34-kt(17 m s^(-1))winds at 6-h intervals.We also suggest future designs of TC surface wind capabilities include funding to ensure near real-time data delivery to operators so that operational evaluation and use are feasible within proposed budgets.Finally,we suggest that users of archived operational wind radii datasets contact operational organizations to ensure these datasets are appropriate for their needs as the datasets vary in quality through time and space,even from a single organisation.

关键词： Tropical cyclone Surface wind Satellite Best track Operations

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OPERATIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE PART 1:RECENT ADVANCES IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第3期8卷 123-133页

作者： Joseph B.Courtney Sébastien Langlade Charles R.Sampson john a.knaff Thomas Birchard Stephen Barlow S.D.Kotal Tarik Kriat Woojeong Lee Richard Pasch Udai Shimada Bureau of Meteorology Australia Meteo-France La RéunionFrance Naval Research Laboratory(NRL) USA NOAA/Center for Satellite Applications and Research USA Central Pacific Hurricane Centre(CPHC) USA Joint Typhoon Warning Centre(JTWC) USA India Meteorological Department(IMD) India Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) Korea National Hurricane Centre(NHC) USA Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA) Japan

This review summarizes techniques used by operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)in Hawaii in 2018.Recent advances and major changes over the past four years are presented,with a special focus on forecasting rapid intensity changes.Although intensity change remains one of the most difficult aspects of tropical cyclone forecasting,objective guidance has shown some improvement.The greatest improvements are realized when consensus methods are utilized,especially those that blend statistical-dynamical based guidance with dynamical ocean-coupled regional models.These models become even more skillful when initialized with inner core observational data.Continued improvement and availability of intensity guidance along with associated forecaster training are expected to deliver forecasting improvements in the future.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity change rapid intensification

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OPERATIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE PART 2:FORECASTS BY OPERATIONAL AGENCIES

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第4期8卷 226-239页

作者： Joseph B.Courtney Sébastien Langlade Stephen Barlow Thomas Birchard john a.knaff S.D.Kotal Tarik Kriat Woojeong Lee Richard Pasch Charles R.Sampson Udai Shimada Amit Singh Bureau of Meteorology Australia Meteo-France La RéunionFrance Joint Typhoon Warning Centre(JTWC) USA Central Pacific Hurricane Centre(CPHC) USA NOAA/Center for Satellite Applications and Research USA India Meteorological Department(IMD) India Meteo-France France Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) Korea National Hurricane Centre(NHC) USA Naval Research Laboratory(NRL) USA Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA) Japan Fiji Meteorological Service(FMS) Fiji

This review summarizes experiences at operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9) in Hawaii in 2018. Some operational forecast centers have been able to leverage advances in intensity guidance to increase forecast skill, albeit incrementally, while others have struggled to make any significant improvements. Rapid intensity changes continue to present major challenges to operational centers and individual difficult cases illustrate the forecasting challenges.It is noteworthy that the realization of a recommendation from IWTC-8 in 2014, to adapt guidance initially developed for the North Atlantic and North-East Pacific to other basins, has led to improved forecast skill of some agencies. Recent worldwide difficult cases are presented so that the research community can further investigate, potentially leading to improved intensity forecasts when similar cases are observed in the future.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity change rapid intensification

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Objective satellite methods including AI algorithms reviewed for the tenth International workshop on tropical cyclones(IWTC-10)

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第4期12卷 259-266页

作者： Quoc-Phi Duong Anthony Wimmers Derrick Herndon Zhe-Min Tan Jing-Yi Zhuo john knaff Ibrahim Al Abdulsalam Takeshi Horinouchi Ryota Miyata Arthur Avenas Laboratoire de l’Atmosphere et des Cyclones(UMR8105 LACy) Universite de La ReunionCNRSMeteo-FranceSaint-DenisFrance Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies University of Wisconsin–MadisonWisconsinUSA Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education Nanjing UniversityNanjingChina School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjingChina NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research Fort CollinsCOUSA Center of Excellence for Satellite Applications Oman Faculty of Environmental Earth Science Hokkaido UniversityHokkaidoJapan Faculty of Engineering University of the RyukyusOkinawaJapan IFREMER Universite BrestCNRSIRDLaboratoire d'Oceanographie Physique et SpatialeBrestFrance

Here we explore the latest four years(2019–2022)of using satellite data to objectively analyze tropical cyclones(TC)and issue recommendations for improved analysis.We first discuss new methods of direct retrieval from SAR and geostationary imagers.Next,we survey some of the most prominent new techniques in AI and discuss their major capabilities(especially accuracy in nonlinear TC behavior,characterization of model uncertainty and creation of synthetic satellite imagery)and limitations(especially lack of transparency and limited amount of training data).We also identify concerns with biases and unlabeled uncertainties in the Best Track records as being a first-order limitation for further progress in objective methods.The article concludes with recommendations to improve future objective methods,especially in the area of more accurate and reliable training data sets.

关键词： AI Tropical cyclone Deep learning Satellite imagery analysis

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