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Precipitation Evolution from Plain to Mountains during the July 2023 Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event in North China

Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第4期38卷 635-651页

作者： Mingxin LI jisong sun Feng LI Chong WU Rudi XIA Xinghua BAO Jinfang YIN Xudong LIANG State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

North China experienced devastating rainfall from 29 July to 1 August 2023,which caused substantial flooding and *** study analyzed observations from surface rain gauges and S-band dual-polarization radars to reveal the following unique features of the precipitation evolution from the plain to the mountains during this event.(1) The total rainfall was found concentrated along the Taihang Mountains at elevations generally > 200 m,and its spatiotemporal evolution was closely associated with northward-moving low-level jets.(2) Storms propagated northwestward with southeasterly steering winds,producing continuous rainfall along the eastern slopes of the Taihang Mountains owing to mountain blocking,which resulted in the formation of local centers of precipitation ***,most rainfall episodes with an extreme hourly rainfall rate(HRR),corresponding to large horizontal wind shear at low levels,actively occurred in the plain area to the east of the Taihang Mountains.(3) The western portion of the extreme heavy rain belt in the north was mainly caused by long-lasting cumulus–stratus mixed precipitation with HRR 20 mm h~(-1).The contributions of convective precipitation and cumulus–stratus mixed precipitation to the total rainfall of the southern and middle rain belts were broadly equivalent.(4) The local HRR maxima located at the transition zone from the plain to the mountains were induced by moderate storm-scale convective cells with active warm-rain processes and large number of small-sized rain droplets.(5) During the devastating rainfall event,it was observed that the rainfall peaked at around 1800 local time(LT) every day over the upstream plain area(no diurnal cycle of rainfall was observed in relation to the accumulated rainfall centers over mountain areas).This was attributable to convective activities along the storm propagation path,which was a resu

关键词： extreme rainfall from plain to mountains convective precipitation stratiform precipitation hourly rainfall rate low-level jet diurnal variation

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泰山地形对一次副高边缘大暴雨过程影响的观测分析

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气象学报 2024年第2期82卷 155-167页

作者：郑丽娜孙继松济南市气象台济南250102 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京100081

利用区域加密自动气象站、雷达、风廓线及卫星等观测资料,分析了2022年秋季山东一次极端大暴雨事件中泰山山脉周围的降水分布及其产生这种分布的可能原因。结果表明:(1)这次山东大暴雨事件发生在对流层中、低层为强盛偏南气流的背景下,... 详细信息

利用区域加密自动气象站、雷达、风廓线及卫星等观测资料,分析了2022年秋季山东一次极端大暴雨事件中泰山山脉周围的降水分布及其产生这种分布的可能原因。结果表明:(1)这次山东大暴雨事件发生在对流层中、低层为强盛偏南气流的背景下,强降水时段集中在2022年10月1日23时至2日02时(北京时,下同),100 mm等雨量线呈“反弓形”横亘在泰山北侧与西侧,并各自伴有超170 mm的降水中心,而泰山南侧降水反而明显偏弱。(2)大暴雨分布带与地面上的中尺度涡旋-辐合线对应:泰山西侧的中尺度涡旋是山脉北侧冷性绕流与南侧暖性绕流相遇而形成的,导致泰山西侧出现强降水中心,降水呈单峰型;山脉北侧的辐合线长时间维持与重建过程,造成泰山北侧降水时间更长,累计降水量更大,小时降水量呈双峰型。(3)泰山北侧观测站的两个降水峰值与雷达反射率因子的两条平行回波带对应:位于泰山北坡处于长时间准静止状态的第一条回波带,与泰山北侧水平涡度环流的上升支气流对应,其形成机制是夜间具有强垂直切变特征的越山西南低空急流和近地面层受到山脉阻滞的东北气流构成的水平涡度强烈发展和维持的结果;第二条降水回波带与弱冷空气云系对应,当其靠近泰山北侧时受到越山西南低空气流背风坡上升支的影响,出现雷达反射率因子增强现象,与之对应的地面风场特征表征为辐合线的重建过程。(4)在泰山西侧,地面辐合线在低空冷空气的驱动下向东南方向移动,致使回波带逐渐演变成“反弓形”,造成强雨带也呈“反弓形”分布;而泰山南侧处于具有强烈垂直切变低空急流形成的水平涡度的下沉支控制下,因而降水量相较泰山北侧和西侧明显偏小。

关键词：泰山山脉绕流低空急流水平涡度环流

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东北冷涡背景下三类区域性强对流天气过程时空分布和环境特征对比分析

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气象学报 2024年第1期82卷 22-36页

作者：曹艳察郑永光孙继松华珊盛杰国家气象中心北京100081 中国气象科学研究院北京100081

东北冷涡是造成中国暖季强对流的重要天气尺度系统之一。为对比东北冷涡与不同类型强对流过程的时空关系及其环境特征差异,基于欧洲中期天气预报中心第5代大气再分析数据和中国国家气象信息中心提供的逐时大风、降水观测资料,筛选了2017... 详细信息

东北冷涡是造成中国暖季强对流的重要天气尺度系统之一。为对比东北冷涡与不同类型强对流过程的时空关系及其环境特征差异,基于欧洲中期天气预报中心第5代大气再分析数据和中国国家气象信息中心提供的逐时大风、降水观测资料,筛选了2017—2021年4—9月东北冷涡背景下9例雷暴大风型、9例强降水型以及8例混合型强对流天气过程,通过动态合成开展了分析研究。结果表明:(1)三类强天气过程相对于冷涡的时空分布差异明显:雷暴大风型过程,超过70%的雷暴大风出现在冷涡中心的西南部或南部;而混合型过程,超过70%的大风出现在冷涡中心的东南部或南部;混合型和强降水型过程中,短时强降水均主要出现在冷涡中心南部或东南部,但后者发生在冷涡东南部的比例更高;雷暴大风型和强降水型过程主要出现在东北冷涡的发展和成熟阶段,而混合型过程主要发生在东北冷涡的成熟阶段。(2)三类强天气过程的环流形势和环境条件差异显著。雷暴大风型过程多出现在5—6月,一般对应的东北冷涡更深厚,等温线更密集,大气环境偏干,存在气温垂直递减率大和强风垂直切变条件,雷暴大风多发生在冷涡南侧的锋区附近,对流层中、高层受干冷空气控制,叠加在低层比较浅薄的暖湿空气之上有利于大气层结条件不稳定的增强,降水粒子蒸发降温形成的下沉气流和地面冷池,叠加锋区辐合更有利于形成区域性地面强风;而强降水型过程多集中在7—8月,对应的东北冷涡强度较弱,等温线较稀疏,强降水一般出现在锋前靠近暖区一侧的强层结不稳定区域内,对应水汽充沛、整层暖湿的环境条件,中低层温差较小,风垂直切变较弱。混合型过程对应的月份和冷涡强度与强降水型过程更接近,水汽、高低层温差以及风垂直切变等环境条件介于上述两类过程之间,但下沉对流有效位能在三类过程中表现为最大。总体来看,相较于中国中、低海拔地区雷暴大风和短时强降水的环境特征而言,东北冷涡背景下的强天气过程对应更强的深层风垂直切变,具有更强的天气尺度动力强迫。

关键词：东北冷涡雷暴大风短时强降水时空特征环境条件

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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Experiment Based on Basic NWP Variables Using Deep Learning

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第9期39卷 1472-1486页

作者： Kanghui ZHOU jisong sun Yongguang ZHENG Yutao ZHANG National Meteorological Center Beijing 100081China Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing 210000China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

The quantitative precipitation forecast(QPF)performance by numerical weather prediction(NWP)methods depends fundamentally on the adopted physical parameterization schemes(PS).However,due to the complexity of the physical mechanisms of precipitation processes,the uncertainties of PSs result in a lower QPF performance than their prediction of the basic meteorological variables such as air temperature,wind,geopotential height,and *** study proposes a deep learning model named QPFNet,which uses basic meteorological variables in the ERA5 dataset by fitting a non-linear mapping relationship between the basic variables and *** variables forecasted by the highest-resolution model(HRES)of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)were fed into QPFNet to forecast *** results show that QPFNet achieved better QPF performance than ECMWF HRES *** threat score for 3-h accumulated precipitation with depths of 0.1,3,10,and 20 mm increased by 19.7%,15.2%,43.2%,and 87.1%,respectively,indicating the proposed performance QPFNet improved with increasing levels of *** sensitivities of these meteorological variables for QPF in different pressure layers were analyzed based on the output of the QPFNet,and its performance limitations are also *** DL to extract features from basic meteorological variables can provide an important reference for QPF,and avoid some uncertainties of PSs.

关键词： deep learning quantitative precipitation forecast permutation importance numerical weather prediction

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Comparative Analysis of the Characteristics of Rainy Season Raindrop Size Distributions in Two Typical Regions of the Tibetan Plateau

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第7期39卷 1062-1078页

作者： Gaili WANG Ran LI jisong sun Xiangde XU Renran ZHOU Liping LIU State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological ScienceBeijing 100081China

Mêdog and Nagqu are two typical regions of the Tibetan Plateau with different geographical locations and climate *** differences may lead to discrepancies in the raindrop size distributions(DSDs)and precipitation microphysical processes between the two *** paper investigates discrepancies in the DSDs using disdrometer data obtained during the rainy season in Mêdog and *** DSD characteristics are studied under five different rainfall rate categories and two precipitation types(stratiform and convective).For the total datasets,the number concentrations of drops with diameters D>0.6(D<0.6)mm are higher(lower)in Nagqu than in Mê*** fitted normalized gamma distributions of the averaged DSDs for the five rainfall rate categories show that Nagqu has a larger(lower)mass-weighted mean diameter D_(m)(normalized intercept parameter,lgNw)than Mêdog *** difference in D_(m)between Nagqu and Mêdog increases with the rainfall *** clusters in Nagqu could be identified as continental-like,while convective precipitation in Mêdog could be classified as *** relationships between the shape factorμand slope parameterΛof the gamma distribution model,the radar reflectivity Z,and the rainfall rate R are also ***,the possible causative mechanism for the notable DSD variation between the two regions during the rainy season is illustrated using reanalysis data and automated weather station *** rain processes are mainly responsible for the lower concentrations of larger drops observed in Nagqu,whereas warm rain prevails in Mêdog,producing abundant small drops.

关键词： raindrop size distribution Tibetan Plateau continental-like maritime-like warm rain cold rain

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A Possible Dynamic Mechanism for Rapid Production of the Extreme Hourly Rainfall in Zhengzhou City on 20 July 2021

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第1期36卷 6-25页

作者： Jinfang YIN Haodong GU Xudong LIANG Miao YU jisong sun Yanxin XIE Feng LI Chong WU State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Research Center for Disastrous Weather over Hengduan Mountains&Low-Latitude Plateau China Meteorological AdministrationKunming 650034

In this study,the unprecedented extreme rainfall event during 19-20 July 2021,which caused devastating flooding in Zhengzhou City and its nearby areas,is examined based on observational data analysis and WRF model 40-h simulations on 1-km horizontal *** results show that the model successfully reproduces(i)major synopticscale weather systems(i.e.,the western Pacific subtropical high,the Tibetan high,two typhoons,and the Huang-Huai cyclone),(ii)convective initiation along the east to north edge of the Songshan Mountain,where orographic lifting is obvious,and(iii)subsequent formation of the convective storm producing the extreme rainfall in *** particular,the model generates the maximum rainfall rate of 233 mm h^(-1)and 40-h accumulated rainfall of 704 mm,corresponding well to the observed extreme values of 201.9 mm h^(-1)and 818 mm,at nearly observed timing and ***,the model reproduces an intense quasi-stationary,well-organized meso-γ-scale convective system,surrounded by an arc-shaped convergence zone,allowing the development of convective updrafts in a three-quarter circle around the convective system,in a way similar to“multidirectional pumping,”attracting all associated precipitation overlaid and concentrated into the same trailing region to generate the extreme hourly rainfall over *** study emphasizes the significant contribution of the unique dynamic structure of the well-organized meso-γ-scale convective system to the record-high hourly rainfall.A possible dynamic mechanism for short-time extreme rainfall production is *** is,the arc-shaped convergence zone of the mesoscale convective system,acting like multidirectional lifting pumps,transports precipitation from different directions into the same region,and thus produces the extreme *** results gained herein may shed new light on better understanding and forecasting of short-time extreme rainfall.

关键词： extreme rainfall meso-γ-scale convective system extreme hourly rainfall rate devastating flooding

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Characteristics of Mesoscale Vortices over China in 2015

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第6期31卷 1149-1160页

作者： Yu SHU jisong sun Yinong PAN Nanjing Meteorological Bureau Nanjing 210019 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081 Institute of Earth Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210093 Key Laboratory for Mesoscale Severe Weather of Ministry of Education Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210093

Mesoscale vortices, which appear at middle and lower levels of rainstorms, are cyclonic circulations with a size ranging from tens of kilometers to several hundred kilometers. Mesoscale vortices often have close relationships with convective activities. The ERA-Interim dataset and an automatic vortex-searching method were used to identify the mesoscale vortices occurring over China in 2015 and their basic characteristics were analyzed. The mesoscale vortices are divided into three categories： mesoscale convective vortices, mesoscale stratiform vortices, and mesoscale dry vortices. The mesoscale convective vortices have the largest intensity, size, and duration, whereas the mesoscale dry vortices have the smallest. Mesoscale convective vortices are able to form in any direction of the parent mesoscale convective system, although the secondary convection tends to appear to the southeast of the parent vortices. The mesoscale vortices tend to generate in the transition area between high and low altitudes. The leeward side of the Tibetan Plateau is the main source region of mesoscale vortices in China. Most of vortices are generated at midday and midnight. The activities of mesoscale convective vortices and mesoscale stratiform vortices peak in summer, whereas those of the mesoscale dry vortices peak in winter.

关键词： mesoscale vortex mesoscale convective vortex mesoscale convective system

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与直线型对流大风相关的强风暴形态结构和热动力学过程

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气象 2023年第1期49卷 1-11页

作者：孙继松中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京100081 南京气象科技创新研究院南京210041

从预报预警业务的视角,重点讨论了直线型对流大风形成机理与对流风暴形态结构演变、风暴内部热动力学与云-水微物理过程之间的科学逻辑关系,以及它们在现代业务观测体系中的“显性表征”,对一些存在不同观点或解释的科学问题进行了探讨... 详细信息

从预报预警业务的视角,重点讨论了直线型对流大风形成机理与对流风暴形态结构演变、风暴内部热动力学与云-水微物理过程之间的科学逻辑关系,以及它们在现代业务观测体系中的“显性表征”,对一些存在不同观点或解释的科学问题进行了探讨,以期帮助相关人员科学理解“观测现象”背后的物理逻辑、提高科学预警能力。主要结论:对流风暴引发的直线型地面强风,直接驱动因子来自于风暴内部的垂直运动,而垂直运动的主要贡献来自于“热力学作用造成的扰动气压垂直变化”和对流冷池效应强迫,它们又与风暴内部的蒸发(凝结)、融化(凝华)等云-水微物理过程直接相关;这些热动力学和云-水微物理过程的演变可以通过一系列的“观测现象”表征出来,例如雷达观测到的弱回波槽口、后侧入流急流、中层径向强辐合、中气旋、阵风锋等,以及地面气象要素随时间的剧烈变化。线型风暴系统的形态变化特征是由于风暴系统内部的动力学过程或者风暴系统与环境大气相互作用导致的,并不是所有的线型风暴系统都会演变为弓状回波特征的飑线;RKW理论本质上解释了整体飑线系统与环境风垂直切变之间的相互作用问题,实质上环境风场更多是在主导飑线移动和传播,而飑线的发展、维持可能主要是由风暴内部的热动力学过程控制的。

关键词：对流风暴结构特征风暴动力学直线型对流大风 RKW理论

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Investigation into the Formation, Structure, and Evolution of an EF4 Tornado in East China Using a High-Resolution Numerical Simulation

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第2期32卷 157-171页

作者： Dan YAO Haile XUE Jinfang YIN jisong sun Xudong LIANG Jianping GUO State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

Devastating tornadoes in China have received growing attention in recent years, but little is known about their formation, structure, and evolution on the tornadic scale. Most of these tornadoes develop within the East Asian monsoon regime, in an environment quite different from tornadoes in the U.S. In this study, we used an idealized, highresolution（25-m grid spacing） numerical simulation to investigate the deadly EF4（Enhanced Fujita scale category 4）tornado that occurred on 23 June 2016 and claimed 99 lives in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province. A tornadic supercell developed in the simulation that had striking similarities to radar observations. The violent tornado in Funing County was reproduced, exceeding EF4（74 ms–1）, consistent with the on-site damage survey. It was accompanied by a funnel cloud that extended to the surface, and exhibited a double-helix vorticity structure. The signal of tornado genesis was found first at the cloud base in the pressure perturbation field, and then developed both upward and downward in terms of maximum vertical velocity overlapping with the intense vertical vorticity centers. The tornado＇s demise was found to accompany strong downdrafts overlapping with the intense vorticity centers. One of the interesting findings of this work is that a violent surface vortex was able to be generated and maintained, even though the simulation employed a free-slip lower boundary condition. The success of this simulation, despite using an idealized numerical approach, provides a means to investigate more historical tornadoes in China.

关键词： tornado Cloud Model version 1(CM1) vertical vorticity updraft helicity double-helix structure hazardous wind

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On the Diurnal Cycle of Heavy Rainfall over the Sichuan Basin during 10–18 August 2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2183-2200页

作者： Rudi XIA Yali LUO Da-Lin ZHANG Mingxin LI Xinghua BAO jisong sun State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of MarylandCollege ParkCollege ParkMaryland 20742USA

A sustained heavy rainfall event occurred over the Sichuan basin in southwest China during 10–18 August 2020,showing pronounced diurnal rainfall variations with nighttime peak and afternoon minimum values,except on the first *** show that the westward extension of the anomalously strong western Pacific subtropical high was conducive to the maintenance of a southerly low-level jet(LLJ)in and to the southeast of the basin,which favored continuous water vapor transport and abnormally high precipitable water in the *** diurnal cycle of rainfall over the basin was closely related to the periodic oscillation of the LLJ in both wind speed and direction that was caused by the combination of inertial oscillation and terrain thermal *** nocturnally enhanced rainfall was produced by moist convection mostly initiated during the evening hours over the southwest part of the basin where high convective available potential energy with moister near-surface moist air was *** convective initiation took place as cold air from either previous precipitating clouds from the western Sichuan Plateau or a larger-scale northerly flow met a warm and humid current from the *** was the slantwise lifting of the warm,moist airflow above the cold air,often facilitated by southwest vortices and quasi-geostrophic ascent,that released the convective instability and produced heavy rainfall.

关键词： diurnal cycle heavy rainfall low-level jet inertial oscillation terrain Sichuan basin

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