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Subseasonal Prediction of Early-summer Northeast Asian Cut-off Lows by BCC-CSM2-HR and GloSea5

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 2127-2134页

作者： Yu NIE Jie WU jinqing zuo Hong-Li REN Adam A.SCAIFE Nick DUNSTONE Steven C.HARDIMAN China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CenterBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Institute of Tibetan Plateau&Polar MeteorologyChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing100089China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX13PBUnited Kingdom University of Exeter Exeter EX13PBUnited Kingdom

Northeast Asian cut-off lows are crucial cyclonic systems that can bring temperature and precipitation extremes over large *** subseasonal forecasting of Northeast Asian cut-off lows is of great *** two dynamical forecasting systems,one from the Beijing Climate Center(BCC-CSM2-HR)and the other from the Met Office(GloSea5),this study assesses simulation ability and subseasonal prediction skill for early-summer Northeast Asian cut-off *** models are shown to have good ability in representing the spatial structure of cut-off lows,but they underestimate the *** skillful prediction time scales for cut-off low intensity are about 10.2 days for BCC-CSM2-HR and 11.4 days for GloSea5 in *** examination shows that both models can essentially capture the initial Rossby wave train,rapid growth and decay processes responsible for the evolution of cut-off lows,but the models show weaker amplitudes for the three-stage *** underestimated simulated strength of both the Eurasian midlatitude and East Asian subtropical jets may lead to the weaker local eddy-mean flow interaction responsible for the cut-off low evolution.

关键词： Northeast Asia cut-off lows subseasonal prediction skill jet stream

Estimation of ground heat flux and its impact on the surface energy budget for a semi-arid grassland

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2011年第1期3卷 41-50页

作者： jinqing zuo JieMin Wang JianPing Huang WeiJing Li GuoYin Wang HongLi Ren Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou Gansu 730000 China Laboratory for Climate Studies China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou Gansu 730000 China

Three approaches, i.e., the harmonic analysis （HA） technique, the thermal diffusion equation and correction （TDEC） method, and the calorimetric method used to estimate ground heat flux, are evaluated by using observations from the Semi-Arid Climate and Environment Observatory of Lanzhou University （SACOL） in July, 2008. The calorimetric method, which involves soil heat flux measurement with an HFP01SC self-calibrating heat flux plate buried at a depth of 5 cm and heat storage in the soil between the plate and the surface, is here called the ITHP approach. The results show good linear relationships between the soil heat fluxes measured with the HFP01SC heat flux plate and those calculated with the HA technique and the TDEC method, respectively, at a depth of 5 cm. The soil heat fluxes calculated with the latter two methods well follow the phase measured with the HFP01SC heat flux plate. The magnitudes of the soil heat flux calculated with the HA technique and the TDEC method are close to each other, and they are about 2 percent and 6 percent larger than the measured soil heat flux, respectively, which mainly occur during the nighttime. Moreover, the ground heat fluxes calculated with the TDEC method and the HA technique are highly correlated with each other （R2= 0.97）, and their difference is only about 1 percent. The TDEC-calculated ground heat flux also has a good linear relationship with the ITttP-calculated ground heat flux （R2 = 0.99）, but their difference is larger （about 9 percent）. Furthermore, compared to the HFP01SC direct measurements at a depth of 5 cm, the ground heat flux calculated with the HA technique, the TDEC method, and the ITHP approach can improve the surface energy budget closure by about 6 percent, 7 percent, and 6 percent at SACOL site, respectively. Therefore, the contribution of ground heat flux to the surface energy budget is very important for the semi-arid grassland over the Loess Plateau in China. Using turbulent heat fluxes with common

关键词： soil heat flux harmonic analysis TDEC method self-calculating heat flux plate surface energy budget

Verification of Seasonal Prediction by the Upgraded China Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System (CMMEv2.0)

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第5期38卷 880-900页

作者： Jie WU Hong-Li REN Jianghua WAN Jingpeng LIU jinqing zuo Changzheng LIU Ying LIU Yu NIE Chongbo ZHAO Li GUO Bo LU Lijuan CHEN Qing BAO Jingzhi SU Lin WANG Jing-Jia LUO Xiaolong JIA Qingchen CHAO CMA Key Laboratory of Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreChina Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

Based on a combination of six Chinese climate models and three international operational models,the China multimodel ensemble(CMME)prediction system has been upgraded into its version 2(CMMEv2.0)at the National Climate Centre(NCC)of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)by including new model members and expanding prediction products.A comprehensive assessment of the performance of the upgraded CMME during its hindcast(1993–2016)and real-time prediction(2021–present)periods is conducted in this *** results demonstrate that CMMEv2.0 outperforms all the individual models by capturing more realistic equatorial sea surface temperature(SST)*** exhibits better prediction skills for precipitation and 2-m temperature anomalies,and the improvements in prediction skill of CMMEv2.0 are significant over East *** superiority of CMMEv2.0 can be attributed to its better projection of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO;with the temporal correlation coefficient score for Niño3.4 index reaching 0.87 at 6-month lead)and ENSO-related *** for the real-time prediction in recent three years,CMMEv2.0 has also yielded relatively stable skills;it successfully predicted the primary rainbelt over northern China in summers of 2021–2023 and the warm conditions in winters of 2022/*** that,ensemble sampling experiments indicate that the CMMEv2.0 skills become saturated after the ensemble model number increased to 5–6,indicating that selection of only an optimal subgroup of ensemble models could benefit the prediction performance,especially over the extratropics,yet the underlying reasons await future investigation.

关键词： China multi-model ensemble(CMME)prediction system predictability source El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) real-time forecast verification

动力和统计预测信息融合预测方法及对我国夏季降水预测的检验

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地球物理学报 2019年第11期62卷 4110-4119页

作者：孙丞虎崔童李维京左金清中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室及气候与气候变化研究所北京100081 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心南京210044 国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室北京100081

短期气候预测中如何将气候模式和统计方法的预测结果科学、客观的集成起来,一直是非常重要的问题.本文针对动力模式和统计方法预测结果相结合的问题,引入资料同化中信息融合的思想,采用最优内插同化方法,实现了动力模式和统计季节降水... 详细信息

短期气候预测中如何将气候模式和统计方法的预测结果科学、客观的集成起来,一直是非常重要的问题.本文针对动力模式和统计方法预测结果相结合的问题,引入资料同化中信息融合的思想,采用最优内插同化方法,实现了动力模式和统计季节降水预测结果的融合.检验表明,对1982—2015年我国夏季降水百分率的回报,融合预测结果与观测的平均空间相关系数可达0.44,分别较统计预测和CFSv2模式统计降尺度订正的技巧提高了0.1左右,而均方根误差较两者可以降低5%~20%.可见,该方法可以进一步提升对我国夏季降水的预测技巧,具有显著的业务应用价值.

关键词：中国夏季降水统计预测动力模式预测融合

Prediction of Primary Climate Variability Modes at the Beijing Climate Center

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第1期31卷 204-223页

作者： Hong-Li REN Fei-Fei JIN Lianchun SONG Bo LU Ben TIAN jinqing zuo Ying LIU Jie WU Chongbo ZHAO Yu NIE Peiqun ZHANG Jin BA Yujie WU Jianghua WAN Yuping YAN Fang ZHOU Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological Administration CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies Institute for Climate and Global Change ResearchSchool of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawaii Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

Climate variability modes, usually known as primary climate phenomena, are well recognized as the most impor- tant predictability sources in subseasonal-interarmual climate prediction. This paper begins by reviewing the re- search and development carried out, and the recent progress made, at the Beijing Climate Center （BCC） in predicting some primary climate variability modes. These include the El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）, Madden-Julian Oscillation （MJO）, and Arctic Oscillation （AO）, on global scales, as well as the sea surface temperature （SST） modes in the Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）, and the East Asian winter and summer monsoons （EAWM and EASM, respectively）, on regional scales. Based on its latest climate and statistical models, the BCC has established a climate phenomenon prediction system （CPPS） and completed a hindcast experi- ment for the period 1991-2014. The performance of the CPPS in predicting such climate variability modes is system- atically evaluated. The results show that skillful predictions have been made for ENSO, MJO, the Indian Ocean basin mode, the WPSH, and partly for the EASM, whereas less skillful predictions were made for the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD） and North Atlantic SST Tripole, and no clear skill at all for the AO, subtropical IOD, and EAWM. Improve- ments in the prediction of these climate variability modes with low skill need to be achieved by improving the BCC＇s climate models, developing physically based statistical models as well as correction methods for model predictions. Some of the monitoring/prediction products of the BCC-CPPS are also introduced in this paper.

关键词： climate phenomenon prediction system(CPPS) El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO) Arctic Oscillation(AO) Beijing Climate Center(BCC)

1998年和2016年北大西洋海温异常对中国夏季降水影响的数值模拟研究

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气象学报 2017年第6期75卷 877-893页

作者：任宏昌左金清李维京南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心南京210044 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室北京100081 国家气象中心北京100081

基于1979—2016年ERA-Interim再分析资料和CAM5.3模式,研究了2016年和1998年北大西洋海温异常对中国夏季降水以及大尺度环流的可能影响及其机制。结果表明,这两年前夏(6—7月)长江中下游及其以南地区降水均异常偏多,但1998年降水异常较2... 详细信息

基于1979—2016年ERA-Interim再分析资料和CAM5.3模式,研究了2016年和1998年北大西洋海温异常对中国夏季降水以及大尺度环流的可能影响及其机制。结果表明,这两年前夏(6—7月)长江中下游及其以南地区降水均异常偏多,但1998年降水异常较2016年更为显著。后夏(8月),2016年长江以南地区降水异常偏多,长江—黄河流域降水异常偏少,而1998年降水异常分布与之相反。2016年和1998年夏季中国东部降水异常的差异与西北太平洋对流层低层异常反气旋以及欧亚中高纬度环流变化的共同作用直接相关。敏感性数值试验的结果表明,北大西洋海温异常的显著差异是导致2016年和1998年夏季中国东部降水以及大尺度环流异常存在明显差异的重要原因之一。一方面,北大西洋海温异常可以通过改变欧亚中高纬度环流进而对中国夏季降水产生影响。1998年北大西洋海温异常自热带至副极地呈类似"+-+"型分布,这种海温异常型能够在前夏欧亚中高纬度地区激发出双阻型的环流异常响应。2016年北大西洋海温异常自热带至副极地呈相对弱的"-+-"型分布,欧亚中高纬度环流异常响应总体偏弱。另一方面,北大西洋海温异常还可以通过影响热带纬向环流进而对西北太平洋对流层低层异常反气旋起调制作用。1998年北大西洋海温异常对夏季西北太平洋异常反气旋起增强作用,这与热带印度洋—太平洋海温的强迫作用相协调。然而,2016年北大西洋海温异常则有利于西北太平洋异常反气旋的减弱,这与热带印度洋—太平洋海温的强迫作用相反。因此,在这3个大洋的协同作用下,2016年和1998年前夏西北太平洋异常反气旋均偏强,但前者的振幅弱于后者。在后夏,1998年西北太平洋对流层低层仍受异常反气旋控制,2016年则为异常气旋控制。

关键词：夏季降水海温强迫数值模拟中高纬度环流西北太平洋异常反气旋

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CMIP5模式对北极涛动的模拟评估

气候变化研究进展 2013年第3期9卷 157-164页

作者：左金清李维京任宏利中国气象科学研究院北京100081 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室/中国气象局国家气候中心北京100081

基于国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)历史试验(historical)的输出结果,评估了26个耦合模式对北极涛动(AO)的模拟能力。对各模式逐月AO指数序列的功率谱分析表明,有23个模式能够模拟出AO模态无显著变化周期的特征。这些模式也能够... 详细信息

基于国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)历史试验(historical)的输出结果,评估了26个耦合模式对北极涛动(AO)的模拟能力。对各模式逐月AO指数序列的功率谱分析表明,有23个模式能够模拟出AO模态无显著变化周期的特征。这些模式也能够较好地再现冬季AO在海平面气压场上的主要分布特征,但均高估了AO模态的强度。对于伴随着冬季AO位相变化而出现的中高纬度偶极型的纬向平均纬向风异常,CMIP5中只有一些模式有较好的模拟表现,大多数模式对其中心位置和强度的模拟存在明显不足。对比之下,MPI-ESM-P对AO时空特征的模拟更接近观测结果。

关键词：北极涛动模拟评估耦合模式 CMIP5

中国南方夏季降水的年代际变率主模态特征及机理研究

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大气科学 2018年第4期42卷 859-876页

作者：李维京刘景鹏任宏利左金清中国气象科学研究院北京100081 中国科学院大学北京100049 中国气象局国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室北京100081

在气候变暖背景下,中国南方夏季降水存在明显的年代际变化特征。本文利用1920~2014年的逐月降水,以分析南方夏季降水年代际变率主模态为切入点,以研究南方夏季降水年代际变率空间分布型的年代际变化特征为重点,进一步研究了印度洋、北... 详细信息

在气候变暖背景下,中国南方夏季降水存在明显的年代际变化特征。本文利用1920~2014年的逐月降水,以分析南方夏季降水年代际变率主模态为切入点,以研究南方夏季降水年代际变率空间分布型的年代际变化特征为重点,进一步研究了印度洋、北太平洋及北大西洋海温的年代际变率对南方夏季降水主模态年代际变率的可能影响机制。得到的主要结论包括:(1)指出中国南方夏季降水年代际变率的两个主模态为全区一致型和东西反相型降水模态。两个主导模态在1971/1972年发生了显著的年代际转变,在1925~1971年的第一主模态为东西反相型降水;在1972~2009年的第一主模态为一致型降水。不同主模态对应的海温异常关键区也在1971/1972年发生了相应的年代际变化。(2)揭示了全区一致型和东西反相型降水模态对应的环流场异常特征。一致多(少)型降水对应着中国南海及西北太平洋低空的反气旋(气旋)性异常,有(不)利于水汽自南海向南方地区输送。而贝加尔湖东侧低空的反气旋(气旋)性异常,有(不)利于冷空气向南方输送,并与来自南海地区的水汽在南方地区辐合,有利于南方地区降水一致偏多(少)。东多西少(西多东少)型降水对应着中国东南地区高空的正(负)异常中心,有利于高空辐散(辐合)及异常的上升(下沉)运动,其与南方地区东部低空的气旋(反气旋)性异常共同作用,有利于东部降水偏多(偏少)。与此同时,低空中南半岛反气旋(气旋)性异常及菲律宾地区反气旋(气旋)性异常,不(有)利于水汽自孟加拉湾及南海地区输送向南方地区西部,有利于形成东多西少(西多东少)的降水型。(3)揭示了印度洋海温、北太平洋海温和北大西洋海温协同影响南方地区东西反相型降水和一致型降水的机制。

关键词：中国南方夏季降水海温年代际变率主模态影响机制

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夏季中国中东部不同历时降水时空分布特征

气候与环境研究 2015年第4期20卷 465-476页

作者：金炜昕李维京孙丞虎左金清北京市气候中心北京100089 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室北京100081

利用1961~2012年台站逐时降水资料,分析了夏季中国中东部不同历时降水的主要气候分布和长期变化特征,为深入认识其时空变化规律和形成机理奠定基础。分析结果表明,降水事件的平均历时由南向北呈"短—长—短"分布型,华南和北方地区以6 h... 详细信息

利用1961~2012年台站逐时降水资料,分析了夏季中国中东部不同历时降水的主要气候分布和长期变化特征,为深入认识其时空变化规律和形成机理奠定基础。分析结果表明,降水事件的平均历时由南向北呈"短—长—短"分布型,华南和北方地区以6 h以下的短历时降水为主;而中部地区(28°N^37°N)6 h以上长历时降水占总降水量60%以上。随着降水历时的增加,小雨事件(0.1~1.0 mm/h)的发生概率降低,中雨事件(1.1~10.0 mm/h)的发生概率升高;大雨、暴雨事件(>10.0 mm/h)更易出现在35°N以南历时偏短的降水事件中。1961~2012年,中国中东部总降水量呈"南升北降"的趋势分布,夏季南方大部分地区降水强度、时数和事件数均呈上升趋势;而北方地区降水时数和事件数显著减少,不过降水强度呈增强趋势。中东部降水历时总体呈上升趋势,尤其以我国长江与黄河之间的中部地区变化最为显著。同时,该地区短历时(1~6 h)降水无显著的年代际转折,长历时(>6 h)降水的年代际增加是20世纪70年代末至20世纪90年代初降水增多的主要原因。20世纪90年代初期以来,南方地区降水的年代际增多则是长、短降水共同作用的结果,但超过6 h降水的影响范围更广,且影响中心较短历时降水偏北。

关键词：小时降水降水强度降水历时线性趋势年代际变化