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Application and discussion of statistical seismology in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies

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Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第2期65卷 257-268页

作者： Weilai PEI Shiyong ZHOU JianCang Zhuang Ziyao XIONG Jian PIAO School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China The Institute of Statistical Mathematics Research Organization of Information and SystemsTokyo 1908562Japan

Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant;particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21 st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence)should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.

关键词： Statistical seismology Earthquake prediction Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment Stress release model Epidemic type aftershock sequence model

A test on methods for MC estimation based on earthquake catalog

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2018年第2期2卷 150-162页

作者： YiJian Zhou ShiYong Zhou JianCang Zhuang Department of Geophysics Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China Institute of Statistical Mathematics 10-3 Midoori-ChoTachikawaTokyo190-8569Japan

This study tested five methods widely used in estimating the complete magnitudes(M_C) of earthquake catalogs. Using catalogs of observed earthquake properties, we test the performance of these five algorithms under several challenging conditions, such as small volume of events and spatial-temporal heterogeneity, in order to see whether the algorithms are stable and in agreement with known data. We find that the maximum curvature method(MAXC) has perfect stability, but will significantly underestimate M_C unless heterogeneity is absent. M_C estimated by the b-value stability method(MBS) requires many events to reach a stable result. Results from the goodness of fit method(GFT) were unstable when heterogeneity lowered the fitness level. The entire magnitude range method(EMR) is relatively stable in most conditions, and can reflect the change in M_C when heterogeneity exists, but when the incomplete part of the earthquake catalog is dismissed, this method fails. The median-based analysis of the segment slope method(MBASS) can tolerate small sample size, but is incapable of reflecting the missing degree of small events in aftershock sequences. In conditions where M_C changes rapidly, such as in aftershock sequences, observing the time sequence directly can give a precise estimation of the complete sub-catalog, but only when the number of events available for study is large enough can the MAXC, GFT, and MBS methods give a similarly reliable estimation.

关键词： complete magnitude of an earthquake catalog G-R law b-value FMD

Inferring seismic hazard in Sichuan-Yunnan region of China based on the modern earthquake catalogue (1980-2019)

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Earthquake Science 2020年第3期33卷 107-115页

作者： Ziyao Xiong Shiyong Zhou JianCang Zhuang School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking UniversityBeijing100871China The Institute of Statistical Mathematics Tokyo 1908562Japan

Based on the modern earthquake catalogue,the incomplete centroidal voronoi tessellation(ICVT)method was used in this study to estimate the seismic hazard in Sichuan-Yunnan region of China.We calculated spatial distributions of the total seismic hazard and background seismic hazard in this area.The Bayesian delaunay tessellation smoothing method put forward by Ogata was used to calculate the spatial distributions of b-value.The results show that seismic hazards in Sichuan-Yunan region are high,and areas with relatively high hazard values are distributed along the main faults,while seismic hazards in Sichuan basin are relatively low.

关键词： seismic hazard analysis Voronoi tessellation spatial smoothing b-value

Data replenishment of five moderate earthquake sequences in Japan, with semi-automatic cluster selection

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Earthquake Science 2021年第4期34卷 310-322页

作者： Yi Zheng Bogdan Enescu JianCang Zhuang Coleman Yu Department of Geophysics Kyoto UniversityKyoto 606-8502Japan National Institute for Earth Physics(NIEP) Magurele-Bucharest 077125Romania Institute of Statistical Mathematics(ISM) Tokyo 190-8562Japan Institute for Chemical Research Kyoto UniversityUjiKyoto 611-0011Japan

Missing early aftershocks following relatively large or moderate earthquakes can cause significant bias in the analysis of seismic catalogs.In this paper,we systematically address the aftershock missing problem for five earthquake sequences associated with moderate-size events that occurred inland Japan,by using a stochastic replenishing method.The method is based on the notion that if a point process(e.g.,earthquake sequence)with timeindependent marks(e.g.,magnitudes)is completely observed,it can be transformed into a homogeneous Poisson process by a bi-scale empirical transformation.We use the Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA)earthquake catalog to select the aftershock data and replenish the missing early events using the later complete part of each aftershock sequence.The time windows for each sequence span from 6 months before the mainshock to three months after.The semi-automatic spatial selection uses a clustering method for the epicentral selection of earthquakes.The results obtained for the original JMA catalog and replenished datasets are compared to get insight into the biases that the missing early aftershocks may cause on the Omori-Utsu law parameters’estimation,characterizing the aftershock decay with time from the mainshock.We have also compared the Omori-Utsu law parameter estimates for two datasets following the same mainshock;the first dataset is the replenished sequence,while the second dataset has been obtained by waveform-based analysis to detect early aftershocks that are not recorded in the JMA catalog.Our results demonstrate that the Omori-Utsu law parameters estimated for the replenished datasets are robust with respect to the threshold magnitude used for the analyzed datasets.Even when using aftershock time windows as short as three days,the replenished datasets provide stable Omori-Utsu law parameter estimations.The p-values for all the analyzed sequences are about 1.1 and c-values are significantly smaller compared to those of original datasets.Our findings prove that the replenishment m

关键词： Omori-Utsu law seismicity clustering replenishment method Matched-Filter Technique(MFT).

用分枝破裂模型解释震源过程：内在随机性、临界区、可预测性和前兆建模

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用分枝破裂模型解释震源过程：内在随机性、临界区、可预测性和前...

Vere-Jones分枝破裂模型和震源过程的相似之处(英文)

2020年中国地球科学联合学术年会

作者： JianCang Zhuang Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura Peng Han The Institute of Statistical Mathematics Southern University of Science and Technology

In the 1990 s, a series of papers by Geller（1997, Science） asserted that the occurrence of earthquakes is not predictable. These papers led to a long argument on Nature（https://***/nature/debates/earthquake/equake\...

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Vere-Jones分枝破裂模型和震源过程的相似之处(英文)

2014年中国地球科学联合学术年会——专题12：强震机理、孕育环境与地震活动性分析

作者： JianCang Zhuang Dun Wang Mitsuhiro Matsuura Institute of Statistical Mathematics 10-3 Midori-choTachikawa Tokyo 190-8562 Japan Earthquake Research Institute University of Tokyo1-1-1YayoiBunkyo-kuTokyo 113-0032Japan

Vere-Jones’branching crack model was developed in 1970s.In this model,the earthquake source is regarded as the result from the total population of crack elements in a critical or near-critical bran

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多个地震台网相互融合测定震级的贝叶斯算法

地球物理学报 2022年第6期65卷 2167-2178页

作者：司政亚庄建仓蒋长胜中国地震局地球物理研究所北京100081 北京市地震局北京100080 日本统计数理研究所东京106-8569

流动地震台网由于台站台基响应、震级测定方法和操作方式等多种因素的影响,测定震级与区域内的固定地震台网震级测量结果存在差异,从而使其记录到的而标准台网没有记录到的大量局域小地震不能直接补充到标准目录中.即使流动地震台网的... 详细信息

流动地震台网由于台站台基响应、震级测定方法和操作方式等多种因素的影响,测定震级与区域内的固定地震台网震级测量结果存在差异,从而使其记录到的而标准台网没有记录到的大量局域小地震不能直接补充到标准目录中.即使流动地震台网的震级测定公式中的量规函数经过校正,两者在具体地震事件的震级测定上的差异仍不可避免,因此急需解决这一普遍性问题的快速计算方法.本文先假定震级的观测值服从正态分布,其中对固定台网而言,测定震级的平均值为未知的真实震级,对流动台网而言,测定震级的平均值为真实震级的一个线性函数,然后基于贝叶斯原理,推导得出了不同台网观测震级的后验概率密度函数.应用于实际观测资料时,可用最大似然估计来获得该算法中的矫正参数,并计算后验的地震震级,即矫正震级.我们将该算法实际应用于西昌流动地震台网(XC)与中国地震台网(CN)的震级融合问题中.基于矫正震级与原始测定震级的对比研究表明,矫正震级与固定地震台网原始测定震级之间存在一定偏离度的线性对应分布,而西昌流动地震台网测定震级相比矫正震级整体偏小.本文所提出的多台网震级融合的贝叶斯算法为流动台网测定的不精确震级提供了一种震级矫正的快速算法,考虑固定台网与流动台网测定震级的一致性,固定台网测定震级的稳定性和准确性也得到同步提高.

关键词：流动地震台网震级标度震级矫正贝叶斯算法

Induced earthquakes in the development of unconventional energy resources

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Science China Earth Sciences 2017年第9期60卷 1632-1644页

作者： YANG HongFeng LIU YaJing WEI Meng zhuang jiancang ZHOU ShiYong Earth System Science Programme Faculty of Science Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong 999077 China Earth and Planetary Sciences McGill UniversityMontreal Quebec H3A 2A7 Canada Graduate School of Oceanography University of Rhode lsland Narragansett Rhode lsland 02882 USA Institute of Statistical Mathematics Tokyo 190-8562 Japan ITAG Institute of Theoretical and Applied Geophysics Peking University Beijing 100871 China

It has long been known that human activities such as waste fluid disposal and reservoir impoundment may cause earthquakes. Recently, anthropogenic activities to tackle the increasing energy demand and to address climate change issues are also reported to induce earthquakes. These activities have a common attribute in that fluids are injected and extracted underground and induce spatiotemporal changes of pore pressure and stress, which may cause slip on faults. Induced earthquakes not only pose significant impacts on seismic hazard assessment and preparation, but also raise the question to the society as how to balance the economic needs of resources development and the public's concerns about potential environmental impacts. Here we review the observations of fluid-injection/extraction induced earthquakes, ground deformation associated with these activities, and their physical mechanisms. Furthermore, we discuss the influences of induced earthquakes on seismic hazard models, regulatory policies on these anthropogenic activities, and current development of academic, industrial and government initiatives and collaborations in order to understand this intriguing phenomenon and address associated challenges.

关键词：诱发地震能源开发地震灾害评估潜在环境影响人类活动地下流体水库蓄水废液处理

贝叶斯同化重力反演方法构建龙门山地壳密度模型

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地球物理学报 2021年第4期64卷 1236-1252页

作者：李红蕾陈石庄建仓张贝石磊中国地震局地球物理研究所北京100081 北京白家疃地球科学国家野外科学观测研究站北京100095 日本数理统计研究所东京190-8562

重力异常对地壳横向密度变化敏感,而无约束重力反演得到的密度模型其垂向分辨能力往往不理想.为了改善反演结果的垂向分辨率,本文参考已有先验分层模型,基于贝叶斯原理,提出了一种重震联合反演的新策略,可实现多种参考模型和复杂加权参... 详细信息

重力异常对地壳横向密度变化敏感,而无约束重力反演得到的密度模型其垂向分辨能力往往不理想.为了改善反演结果的垂向分辨率,本文参考已有先验分层模型,基于贝叶斯原理,提出了一种重震联合反演的新策略,可实现多种参考模型和复杂加权参数条件下的最大后验概率估计.理论模型测试结果表明,对于深度加权、多参考模型约束等多种问题,本文提出的新方法都可以稳健地获得最优化的模型参数.本文同时以中国地震科学台阵在龙门山地区及周边的一维接收函数分层模型和地震层析成像结果为参考,通过此方法对该区的重力异常进行反演,获得了该区的高精度三维密度结构,其水平分辨率优于10 km,垂直分辨率优于5 km.结合四条通过汶川和芦山地震震中的剖面进行分析后发现,反演得到的密度结构模型在过强震震源区位置横向变形显著,其揭示的分层地壳结构和变形模式与地表已知断裂构造具有相关性.本文提出的重震联合反演新策略,可为研究潜在强震风险源区的地壳结构和物性特征提供有效的科技方法支撑.

关键词：重力反演贝叶斯推断三维密度结构龙门山构造数据同化