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Risk assessment of oil and gas investment environment in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative

Petroleum Science 2024年第2期21卷 1429-1443页

作者： Bao-Jun Tang Chang-jing ji Yu-Xian Zheng Kang-Ning Liu Yi-Fei Ma Jun-Yu Chen Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing100081China School of Management and Economics Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing100081China Collaborative Innovation Center of Electric Vehicles in Beijing BeijingChina Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing BeijingChina Institute of Carbon Neutrality ShanghaiTech UniversityShanghai201210China

With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is deepening its cooperation in oil and gas resources with countries along the Initiative. In order to better mitigate risks and enhance the safety of investments, it is of significant importance to research the oil and gas investment environment in these countries for China's overseas investment macro-layout. This paper proposes an indicator system including 27 indicators from 6 dimensions. On this basis, game theory models combined with global entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are applied to determine the combined weights, and the TOPSIS-GRA model is utilized to assess the risks of oil and gas investment in 76 countries along the Initiative from 2014 to 2021. Finally, the GM(1,1) model is employed to predict risk values for 2022-2025. In conclusion, oil and gas resources and political factors have the greatest impact on investment environment risk, and 12 countries with greater investment potential are selected through cluster analysis in conjunction with the predicted results. The research findings may provide scientific decisionmaking recommendations for the Chinese government and oil enterprises to strengthen oil and gas investment cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.

关键词： Belt and Road Initiative Oil and Gas Investment Risk assessment

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