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Changes of tropical cyclone size in three oceanic basins of the northern hemisphere from 2001 to 2021

Frontiers of Earth Science 2024年第2期18卷 312-323页

作者： Banglin ZHANG jeremy cheuk.hin leung Shengyuan LIU Jianjun XU Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510640China College of Atmospheric Science Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730020China College of Ocean and Meteorology Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China CMA-GDOU Joint Laboratory for Marine Meteorology&South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China

In this study the changes of tropical cyclone(TC)size from 2001 to 2021 are analyzed based on linear and quadratic curve fittings of the National Hurricane Center(NHC)/Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC)best track data,based on the radius of maximum wind(RMW)and the average radius of 34-kt wind(AR34),in three oceanic basins of the North Atlantic(NATL),the Western North Pacific(WPAC)and the Eastern North Pacific(EPAC).The computations are done separately for two categories of tropical cyclones:tropical storms(TS)and hurricanes(HT).Size changes of landfalling and non-landfalling TCs are also *** show that there is a great inter-basin variability among the changes in TC *** conclusions include:1)overall,the inner cores of TSs have become larger in all three basins,with the increasing tendencies being significant in the NATL and WAPC,while those of HTs mostly get smaller or remain similar;2)meanwhile,comparatively large inter-basin differences are observed for the TC outer core sizes,and the sizes of landfalling TCs;3)particularly,a significant decrease in landfalling HT outer core size is observed over the EPAC;4)in contrast,significant increases in landfalling TS inner core size are found over the NATL and *** presented analysis results could benefit future research about TC forecasts,storm surge studies,and the cyclone climate and its changes.

关键词： tropical cyclone storm size frequency intensity duration

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Combinatorial Optimization of Physics Parameterization Schemes for Typhoon Simulation Based on a Simple Genetic Algorithm(SGA)

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 10-26页

作者： Zebin LU Jianjun XU Zhiqiang CHEN Jinyi YANG jeremy cheuk.hin leung Daosheng XU Banglin ZHANG China Meteorological Administration–Guangdong Ocean University Joint Laboratory for Marine Meteorology South China Sea Institute of Marine MeteorologyGuangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088 College of Ocean and Meteorology Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510640 Shenzhen Institute of Guangdong Ocean University Shenzhen 518120 College of Atmospheric Science Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000

Each physical process in a numerical weather prediction(NWP)system may have many different parameterization *** studies have shown that the performance of different physical parameterization schemes varies with the weather situation to be ***,it is necessary to select a suitable combination of physical parameterization schemes according to the variation of weather ***,it is rather difficult to identify an optimal combination among millions of possible parameterization scheme *** study applied a simple genetic algorithm(SGA)to optimizing the combination of parameterization schemes in NWP models for typhoon *** feasibility of SGA was verified with the simulation of Typhoon Mujigae(2015)by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model and Typhoon Higos(2020)by using the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport(COAWST)modeling *** results show that SGA can efficiently obtain the optimal combination of *** Typhoon Mujigae(2015),the optimal combination can be found from the 1,304,576 possible combinations by running only 488 *** results can be obtained for Typhoon Higos(2020).Compared to the default combination proposed by the COAWST model system,the optimal combination scheme significantly improves the simulation of typhoon track and *** study provides a feasible way to search for the optimal combinations of physical parameterization schemes in WRF and COAWST for more accurate typhoon *** can help provide references for future development of NWP models,and for analyzing the coordination and adaptability of different physical process parameterization schemes under specific weather backgrounds.

关键词： simple genetic algorithm(SGA) combinatorial optimization typhoon forecast numerical weather prediction(NWP)

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An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea from the CMA-TRAMS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 20-28页

作者：李梦婕陈子通戴光丰田群梁卓轩林青张艳霞 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081 China Guangdong Meteorological Observatory Guangzhou 510641 China

Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon *** updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.

关键词： CMA-TRAMS cyclogenesis numerical weather prediction tropical cyclone

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基于广东数值天气预报模式产品的扰动天气图系统

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热带气象学报 2024年第4期40卷 633-649页

作者：文秋实梁卓轩魏丹淇钱维宏中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室广东广州510641 北京大学物理学院大气海洋科学系北京100871 广东海洋大学海洋与气象学院广东湛江524088

数值预报模式产品已成为当前各地气象台短期天气预报中的重要参考信息。我国各级气象台站都建立了多模式产品的一体化显示平台。但是,业务化平台上绘制的仍然是传统天气图。近十年来,为了更方便预报员客观地从中识别各种类极端天气,北... 详细信息

数值预报模式产品已成为当前各地气象台短期天气预报中的重要参考信息。我国各级气象台站都建立了多模式产品的一体化显示平台。但是,业务化平台上绘制的仍然是传统天气图。近十年来,为了更方便预报员客观地从中识别各种类极端天气,北京大学发展的基于欧洲中心全球模式产品的扰动天气图制作方法已经应用于对国内外多种类极端天气的大量个例分析,得到了国内外同行的认可。在前期工作的基础上,新近发展了基于广东区域模式(CMA-GD)产品的扰动天气图绘制系统。但是,与欧洲全球模式相比广东区域模式具有完全独立的非静力平衡状态偏差特征,并且不同模式系统之间的系统偏差也不一致,因此提出了一套生成区域模式自有扰动天气分析数据的基本方案,以减小模式系统性误差和气候漂移造成的虚假天气扰动信息,更有效地展现模式中的扰动天气系统特征细节。针对该系统网页端输出结果,实际应用台风个例介绍区域模式扰动天气图分析、使用方法。结果表明:相比于欧洲中心全球模式产品生成的扰动天气图,基于本地化模式数据生成的扰动天气图能够展示更多区域模式独有的物理量非静力特征时空特征。希望能帮助读者认识扰动法并熟悉扰动天气图在日常天气预报业务和天气过程复盘总结中的应用。

关键词：广东模式产品扰动天气图业务系统

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A Time Neighborhood Method for the Verification of Landfalling Typhoon Track Forecast

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第2期40卷 273-284页

作者： Daosheng XU jeremy cheuk.hin leung Banglin ZHANG Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510640China

Landfalling typhoons can cause disasters over large *** government and emergency responders need to take measures to mitigate disasters according to the forecast of landfall position,while slight timing error can be *** reliability of operational model forecasts of typhoon landfall position needs to be evaluated beforehand,according to the forecasts and observation of historical *** the evaluation of landfalling typhoon track,the traditional method based on point-to-point matching methods could be influenced by the predicted typhoon translation ***,the traditional track evaluation method may result in a large track error even if the predicted landfall position is close to *** purpose of this paper is to address the above issue using a simple evaluation method of landfalling typhoon track forecast based on the time neighborhood *** this new method,the timing error was lessened to highlight the importance of the position error during the landfall of *** properties of the time neighborhood method are compared with the traditional method based on numerical forecast results of 12 landfalling typhoon *** demonstrated that the new method is not sensitive to the sampling frequency,and that the difference between the time neighborhood and traditional method will be more obvious when the moving speed of typhoon is moderate(between 15−30 km h^(−1)).The time neighborhood concept can be easily extended to a broader context when one attempts to examine the position error more than the timing error.

关键词： time neighborhood method typhoon track landfalling typhoon model evaluation

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Applying Anomaly-based Weather Analysis to the Prediction of Low Visibility Associated with the Coastal Fog at Ningbo-Zhoushan Port in East China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第10期36卷 1060-1077页

作者： Weihong QIAN jeremy cheuk.hin leung Youli CHEN Siyuan HUANG Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China Ningbo Meteorological Observatory Ningbo 315012 China Ningbo Meteorological Network and Equipment Support Center Ningbo 315012 China Laboratory of Straits Meteorology Xiamen Meteorological Bureau Xiamen 361013 China

Low visibility episodes (visibility < 1000 m) were studied by applying the anomaly-based weather analysis method. A regional episode of low visibility associated with a coastal fog that occurred from 27 to 28 January ... 详细信息

Low visibility episodes (visibility hina, was first examined. Some basic features from the anomalous weather analysis for this case were identified:(1) the process of low visibility mainly caused by coastal fog was a direct response to anomalous temperature inversion in the lower troposphere, with a warm center around the 925 hPa level, which was formed by a positive geopotential height (GPH) anomaly in the upper troposphere and a negative GPH anomaly near the surface;(2) the positive humidity anomaly was conducive to the formation of coastal fog and rain;(3) regional coastal fog formed at the moment when the southwesterly wind anomalies transferred to northeasterly wind anomalies. Other cases confirmed that the low visibility associated with coastal fog depends upon low-level inversion, a positive humidity anomaly, and a change of wind anomalies from southwesterly to northeasterly, rain and stratus cloud amount. The correlation coefficients of six-hourly inversion, 850?925-hPa-averaged temperature, GPH and humidity anomalies against visibility are ?0.31, 0.40 and ?0.48, respectively, reaching the 99% confidence level in the first half-years of 2015 and 2016. By applying the anomaly-based weather analysis method to medium-range model output products, such as ensemble prediction systems, the anomalous temperature?pressure pattern and humidity?wind pattern can be used to predict the process of low visibility associated with coastal fog at several days in advance.

关键词： traditional synoptic analysis anomaly-based weather analysis low visibility coastal fog

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Strengthened Regulation of the Onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon by the Northwest Indian Ocean Warming in the Past Decade

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第6期39卷 943-952页

作者： Yang AI Ning JIANG Weihong QIAN jeremy cheuk.hin leung Yanying CHEN State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LASW)and Institute of Climate System Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510641China School of Marine Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Traditionally,a delayed(early)onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM)has been observed to follow a warm(cold)El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)event in winter,supporting high seasonal predictability of SCSSM ***,the empirical seasonal forecasting skill of the SCSSM onset,solely based on ENSO,has deteriorated since ***,unexpected delayed onsets of the SCSSM have also occurred in the past *** attribute these changes to the Northwest Indian Ocean(NWIO)warming of the sea *** NWIO warming has teleconnections related to(1)suppressing the seasonal convection over the South China Sea,which weakens the impacts of ENSO on SCSSM onset and delays the start of SCSSM,and(2)favoring more high-frequency,propagating moist convective activities,which enhances the uncertainty of the seasonal prediction of SCSSM onset *** results yield insight into the predictability of the SCSSM onset under the context of uneven ocean warming operating within the larger-scale background state of global climate change.

关键词： Indian Ocean South China Sea summer monsoon monsoon onset ENSO

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Recent Unusual Consecutive Spring Tropical Cyclones in North Atlantic and Winter Oceanic Precursor Signals

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第2期37卷 208-217页

作者： Hong HUANG jeremy cheuk.hin leung Johnny CLCHAN Jimin LIU Weihong QIAN Banglin ZHANG College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha410015 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou510640 School of Energy and Environment City University of Hong KongHong Kong999077 Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai519082 College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou730000 Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030 Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center Shanghai201306 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Peking UniversityBeijing100871

Although the North Atlantic(NA)hurricane season has been reported to start increasingly early,historical longterm changes in NA spring tropical cyclone(TC)activity have not been examined in previous *** find that spring TCs have become more frequent and intense,and they have more closely approached the US coastline over the past four decades,thus increasing the probability of landfall.A long-term increase in the NA sea surface temperature(SST)and northward incursion of warm water may be responsible for the increasing number,intensity,and northward shift of spring *** addition,the interdecadal winter NA SST tripole mode may induce a North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)-like atmospheric response in the following spring,which controls spring TC tracks via modulating the strength and position of the NA subtropical high(or the Bermuda high).The superposition of the interdecadal positive winter SST tripole on the NA warming trend has contributed to the anomalous enhancement and northward shift of spring TC activity,increasing the spring TC risks in the US in the past six years.

关键词： hurricane climate change spring tropical cyclone preseason storm

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Move a Tropical Cyclone with 4D-Var and Vortex Dynamical Initialization in WRF Model

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2021年第3期27卷 191-200页

作者： WANG Ting PENG Yue-hua ZHANG Bang-lin leung jeremy cheuk.hin SHI Wei-lai Mail Box 5111 Beijing 100094 China Dalian Naval Academy DalianLiaoning 116018 China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510000 China College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073 China

Previous studies showed that 4 D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4 D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by calculating perturbations in WRF simulation. Given the background error covariance matrix, the initial field is improved by the vortex dynamic initialization technique. Our results show that 4 D-Var can be applied to control the trajectory of simulated tropical cyclones by producing "optimal" perturbations. In the numerical simulation experiment of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, after this kind of weather control similar to data assimilation, the tropical cyclone moved obviously,and the damaging wind over the coastline weakened. The prediction results after the initial field modified by 4 D-Var have a great change, and the position of the tropical cyclone moved about 0.5° southeastward after assimilation,which misses the southeast coast of China. Moreover, the damaging wind is also weakened. Since the 4 D-Var is premised on the assumption that the model is perfect and does not consider the model error, then the research plan to consider model error and introduce new methods is discussed in the paper.

关键词： 4D-Var weather control Typhoon Mitag WRF model vortex dynamical initialization

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An Orthogonal Collision Dynamic Mechanism of Wave-Like Uplift Plateaus in Southern Asia

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Open Journal of Geology 2023年第8期13卷 828-846页

作者： Weihong Qian jeremy cheuk.hin leung Banglin Zhang Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology CMA Guangzhou China School of Physics Peking University Beijing China

In southern Asia, there are three large-scale wave-like mountains ranging from the Tibetan Plateau westward to the Iranian Plateau and the Armenian Plateau. On the southern side between plateaus, there are the Indian Peninsula and the Arabian Peninsula. What dynamic mechanisms form the directional alignment of the three plateaus with the two peninsulas remains a mystery. In the early stages of the Earth’s geological evolution, the internal structure of the Earth was that the center was a solid core, and the outmost layer was a thin equatorial crust zone separated by two thick pristine continents in polar areas, while the middle part was a deep magma fluid layer. Within the magma fluid layer, thermal and dynamic differences triggered planetary-scale vertical magma cells and led to the core-magma angular momentum exchange. When the core loses angular momentum and the magma layer gains angular momentum, the movement of upper magma fluids to the east and the tropical convergence zone (TCZ) drives the split and drift of two thick pristine continents, eventually forming the current combination of these plateaus and peninsulas and their wave-like arrangement along the east-west direction. Among them, the horizontal orthogonal convergence (collision) of upper magma fluids from the two hemispheres excited the vertical shear stress along the magma TCZ, which is the dynamic mechanism of mountain uplifts on the north side and plate subductions on the south side. To confirm this mechanism, two examples of low-level winds are used to calculate the correspondence between cyclone/anticyclonic systems generated by the orthogonal collision of airflows along the atmospheric TCZ and satellite-observed cloud systems. Such comparison can help us revisit the geological history of continental drift and orogeny.

关键词： Plateau Uplift Plate Subduction Tibetan Plateau Iranian Plateau Armenian Plateau

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