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Modeling the dynamic impacts of maritime network blockage on global supply chains

The Innovation 2024年第4期5卷 103-109,102页

作者： Shen Qu Yunlei She Qi Zhou jasper verschuur Lu-Tao Zhao Huan Liu Ming Xu Yi-Ming Wei Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing 100081China School of Management Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing 100081China Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management Beijing 100081China Oxford Programme for Sustainable Infrastructure Systems(OPSIS) Environmental Change InstituteUniversity of OxfordOX12JD OxfordUK State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex Beijing 100084China School of Environment Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Recent phenomena such as pandemics,geopolitical tensions,and climate change-induced extreme weather events have caused transportation network interruptions,revealing vulnerabilities in the global supply chain.A salient example is the March 2021 Suez Canal blockage,which delayed 432 vessels carrying cargo valued at$92.7 billion,triggering widespread supply chain *** ability to model the spatiotemporal ramifications of such incidents remains *** fill this gap,we develop an agent-based complex network model integrated with frequently updated maritime *** Suez Canal blockage is taken as a case *** results indicate that the effects of such blockages go beyond the directly affected countries and *** Suez Canal blockage led to global losses of about$136.9($127.5–$147.3)billion,with India suffering 75%of these *** losses show a nonlinear relationship with the duration of blockage and exhibit intricate trends post *** proposed model can be applied to diverse blockage scenarios,potentially acting as an earlyalert system for the ensuing supply chain ***,high-resolution daily data post blockage offer valuable insights that can help nations and industries enhance their resilience against similar future events.

关键词： chains valued extreme

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