检索结果-南通市图书馆

Effect of climate factors on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Malaysia: A generalized additive mixed model

引用

Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 997-1008页

作者： Nurmarni Athirah Abdul Wahid jamaludin suhaila Haliza Abd.Rahman Department of Mathematical Sciences Faculty of ScienceUniversiti Teknologi Malaysia81310Johor BahruJohorMalaysia UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics(UTM-CIAM) Ibnu Sina Institute for Scientific and Industrial ResearchUniversiti Teknologi Malaysia81310Johor BahruJohorMalaysia

Climate change is one of the critical determinants affecting life cycles and transmission of most infectious agents,including malaria,cholera,dengue fever,hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD),and the recent Corona-virus pandemic.HFMD has been associated with a growing number of outbreaks resulting in fatal complications since the late 1990s.The outbreaks may result from a combination of rapid population growth,climate change,socioeconomic changes,and other lifestyle changes.However,the modeling of climate variability and HFMD remains unclear,particularly in statistical theory development.The statistical relationship between HFMD and climate factors has been widely studied using generalized linear and additive modeling.When dealing with time-series data with clustered variables such as HFMD with clustered states,the independence principle of both modeling approaches may be violated.Thus,a Generalized Additive Mixed Model(GAMM)is used to investigate the relationship between HFMD and climate factors in Malaysia.The model is improved by using a first-order autoregressive term and treating all Malaysian states as a random effect.This method is preferred as it allows states to be modeled as random effects and accounts for time series data autocorrelation.The findings indicate that climate variables such as rainfall and wind speed affect HFMD cases in Malaysia.The risk of HFMD increased in the subsequent two weeks with rainfall below 60 mm and decreased with rainfall exceeding 60 mm.Besides,a two-week lag in wind speeds between 2 and 5 m/s reduced HFMD's chances.The results also show that HFMD cases rose in Malaysia during the inter-monsoon and southwest monsoon seasons but fell during the northeast monsoon.The study's outcomes can be used by public health officials and the general public to raise awareness,and thus,implement effective preventive measures.

关键词： Autoregressive term Climate change Generalized additive mixed model HFMD Infectious disease

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Assessing the Effect of Climate Factors on Dengue Incidence via a Generalized Linear Model

引用

Open Journal of Applied Sciences 2021年第4期10卷 549-563页

作者： Ayuna Sulekan jamaludin suhaila Nurmarni Athirah Abdul Wahid Department of Mathematical Sciences Faculty of Science Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Johor Bahru Malaysia UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM) Ibnu Sina Institute for Scientific and Industrial Research Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Johor Bahru Malaysia

Changes in climate factors such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, and wind speed are natural processes that could significantly impact the incidence of infectious diseases. Dengue is a widespread disease that has often been documented when it comes to the impact of climate change. It has become a significant concern, especially for the Malaysian health authorities, due to its rapid spread and serious effects, leading to loss of life. Several statistical models were performed to identify climatic factors associated with infectious diseases. However, because of the complex and nonlinear interactions between climate variables and disease components, modelling their relationships have become the main challenge in climate-health studies. Hence, this study proposed a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) via Poisson and Negative Binomial to examine the effects of the climate factors on dengue incidence by considering the collinearity between variables. This study focuses on the dengue hot spots in Malaysia for the year 2014. Since there exists collinearity between climate factors, the analysis was done separately using three different models. The study revealed that rainfall, temperature, humidity, and wind speed were statistically significant with dengue incidence, and most of them shown a negative effect. Of all variables, wind speed has the most significant impact on dengue incidence. Having this kind of relationships, policymakers should formulate better plans such that precautionary steps can be taken to reduce the spread of dengue diseases.

关键词： Climate Factors Dengue Generalized Linear Model Poisson Negative Binomial

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Introducing the Mixed Distribution in Fitting Rainfall Data

引用

Open Journal of Modern Hydrology 2011年第2期1卷 11-22页

作者： jamaludin suhaila Kong Ching-Yee Yusof Fadhilah Foo Hui-Mean 不详

Several types of mixed distribution are proposed and tested in order to determine the best model in describing daily rainfall amount in Peninsular Malaysia for the time period of 33 years. A mixed distribution is a mixture of discrete and continuous daily rainfall which included the dry days. The mixed distributions tested in this study were exponential distribution, gamma distribution, weibull distribution and lognormal distribution. The model will be selected based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). In general, the mixed lognormal distribution has been selected as the best model for most of the rain gauge stations in Peninsular Malaysia. However, these results are greatly influenced by the topographical, geographical and climatic changes of the rain gauge stations.

关键词： Mixed distribution Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) Mixed Lognormal

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

欢迎您,

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

欢迎您,

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：