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Chinese Science Bulletin 2012年第8期57卷 921-926页

作者： MA JieHua wang {1. ZHANG Yin nansen-{1. {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Climate Change research {1. Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Frequent winter snowstorms have recently caused large economic losses and attracted wide *** snowstorms have raised an important scientific *** scenarios of future global warming,will winter precipitation in china increase significantly and produce more snow in the north? Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP 3) model projections under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario A1. scenario,we generated a possible future Arctic condition,the summer (September) "ice-free Arctic" *** then used corresponding monthly sea surface temperature (SST) values and a set of CO 2.concentrations to drive an {1. general circulation model (AGCM),for simulating East Asian climate *** experimental results show that during the boreal winter (December-January-February;DJF),global surface air temperature would increase significantly under this scenario,producing substantial warming in Arctic regions and at high latitudes in Asia and North *** Siberian High,Aleutian Low and East Asian winter monsoon would all ***,because of increased transport of water vapor to china from the north,winter precipitation would increase from south to *** addition,the significant increase in winter temperature might cause fewer cold surges.

关键词：大气环流模式冬季降水中国北方北极地区模式模拟夏季东亚冬季风二氧化碳浓度

Preliminary Studies on Predicting the Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature through Combined Statistical Methods and Dynamic ENSO Prediction

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2013年第1期6卷 52-59页

作者： wang Li-Wei ZHENG Fei {1. {2. international {1. for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences beijing {1. of Applied Meteorology

The sea surface temperature （SST） in the In- dian Ocean affects the regional climate over the Asian continent mostly through a modulation of the monsoon system. It is still difficult to provide an a priori indication of the seasonal variability over the Indian Ocean. It is widely recognized that the warm and cold events of SST over the tropical Indian Ocean are strongly linked to those of the equatorial eastern Pacific. In this study, a statistical prediction model has been developed to predict the monthly SST over the tropical Indian Ocean. This model is a linear regression model based on the lag relationship between the SST over the tropical Indian Ocean and the Nino3.4 （5°S-5°N, 1.0°W-1.0°W） SST Index. The pre- dictor （i.e., Nino3.4 SST Index） has been operationally predicted by a large size ensemble E1.Nifio and the Southern Oscillation （ENSO） forecast system with cou- pled data assimilation （Leefs_CDA）, which achieves a high predictive skill of up to a 2.-month lead time for the equatorial eastern Pacific SST. As a result, the prediction skill of the present statistical model over the tropical In- dian Ocean is better than that of persistence prediction for January 1.82.through December 2.09.

关键词： Indian Ocean SST ENSO prediction statisti- cal method dynamical prediction

Remote impacts from the tropical Indian Ocean on haze pollution in January over the Yangtze River Delta

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2021年第3期14卷 49-53页

作者： Shuwei Xia Zhicong Yin huijun {1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) ZhuhaiChina nansen-{1. {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Haze events in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region have recently been occurring more frequently and with dramatic damages inflicted on human and ecosystem *** this study,observational analyses and numerical experiments are used to investigate the meteorological conditions associated with haze pollution,with the main emphasis on the impacts of the preceding sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO).The results show that the December SST in the TIO has a significant positive correlation with the number of haze days in January over the YRD,especially during 1.99–*** December,the positive SST anomalies in the TIO heat the overlying air,and then in the following January provoke a Matsuno–Gill-like pattern and a series of Rossby wave–like trains in the upper troposphere,transmitting signals to the YRD and downstream through the Sea of Japan and Aleutian *** cyclonic anomalies in the YRD seem to significantly weaken the East Asian jet stream by means of anomalous easterlies,and subsequently affect the climate in the *** the surface,the increased surface air temperature and southerly winds,along with the decreased surface wind speed,accompanied by influences from upstream areas,are conducive to the occurrence of *** observational results were also reproduced well in CESM-LE simulations.

关键词： Sea surface temperature Tropical indian ocean Haze pollution CESM-LE

Joint effects of three oceans on the 2.2. super mei-yu

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2022年第1期15卷 12-20页

作者： Hua Li Bo Sun huijun {1. Xing Yuan center for Climate System Prediction {1./Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina nansen-{1. {2. {2. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina School of Hydrology and Water Resources Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) ZhuhaiChina

An unexpected super mei-yu struck in 2.2. in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin,southern Korea,and southern Japan(hereafter referred to as the mei-yu regions),causing many casualties and huge economic *** super mei-yu was characterized by a remarkably early onset(around 1.June),late withdrawal(around 1.August),and intense rainfalI during the mei-yu *** precipitation in the early onset and late withdrawal stages contributed more than half of the total mei-yu-period precipitation over the mei-yu regions in *** this study,the authors explored the dominant remote forcing of the mei-yu early onset and late withdrawal to understand the mechanisms of this super *** early onset can mainly be attributed to an early northward-shifted East Asian jet stream(EAJS).The late withdrawal mainly resulted from the stagnant EAJS and the western North Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) during 1. July to 1.***,North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) excited a Rossby wave,which was steered by atmospheric anomalies related to the western North Pacific SSTAs,causing the early northward-shifted EAJS and generating an early *** record-breaking warm SSTAs over the North Indian Ocean to South{1. Sea and the reduced sea-ice concentration(SIC) over the Laptev-East Siberian Sea played important roles in causing the stagnant WPSH and EAJS during July,which led to the late ***,the SIC anomalies may have caused the inhomogeneous rainfall distribution in the mei-yu ***,projection results suggest that the probability of a late mei-yu withdrawal similar to the 2.2. case will increase in the ***,potential predictors of an extreme mei-yu are discussed.

关键词： Mei-yu Extreme climate event Remote forcing East Asian jet stream Western pacific subtropical high

Paleoclimate Modeling in china: A Review

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2015年第2期32卷 250-275页

作者： jiang {1. YU Ge ZHAO Ping CHEN Xing LIU Jian LIU Xiaodong {2. Shaowu ZHANG Zhongshi YU Yongqiang LI Yuefeng JIN Liya XU Ying JU Lixia ZHOU Tianjun YAN Xiaodong nansen {1. {2. {2. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research {1. Chinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment Nanjing Institute of Geography and LimnologyChinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences School of atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education School of Geography ScienceNanjing Normal University State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences china Meteorological Administration Training {1. Key Laboratory of Western china’s Environmental Systems Lanzhou University National Climate center China Meteorological Administration State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University

This paper provides a review of paleoclimate modeling activities in china. Rather than attempt to cover all topics, we have chosen a few climatic intervals and events judged to be particularly informative to the {1. community. In historical climate simulations, changes in solar radiation and volcanic activity explain most parts of reconstructions over the last millennium prior to the industrial era, while{2. greenhouse gas concentrations play the most important role in the2. th century warming over china. There is a considerable model–data mismatch in the annual and boreal winter temperature change over china during the mid-Holocene [6000 years before present（ka BP）], while coupled models with an interactive ocean generally perform better than{2. models. For the Last Glacial Maximum（2.1}ka BP）, climate models successfully reproduce the surface cooling trend over china but fail to reproduce its magnitude, with a better performance for coupled models. At that time, reconstructed vegetation and western Pacific sea surface temperatures could have significantly affected the East Asian climate, and environmental conditions on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau were most likely very different to the present day. During the late Marine Isotope Stage 3（30–40 ka BP）, orbital forcing and Northern Hemisphere glaciation, as well as vegetation change in china, were likely responsible for East Asian climate change. On the tectonic scale,the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau uplift, the Tethys Sea retreat, and the South china Sea expansion played important roles in the formation of the East Asian monsoon-dominant environment pattern during the late Cenozoic.

关键词： paleoclimate modeling china millennium orbital scale tectonic scale

An Observing System Simulation Experiment to Assess the Potential Impact of a Virtual Mobile Communication Tower–based Observation Network on Weather Forecasting Accuracy in china. Part 1. Weather Stations with a Typical Mobile Tower Height of 40 m

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2020年第6期37卷 617-633页

作者： Xuanming ZHAO jiang {1. Lijing CHENG Yubao LIU Yuewei LIU international {1. for Climate and Environment Science Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China National center for {1.{2. CO 80301USA

The importance of a national or regional network of meteorological stations for improving weather predictions has been recognized for many ***-based automatic weather stations typically observe weather at a height of 2.1. m above ground level(AGL);however,these observations may have two major *** portions of data cannot be used if the station height is significantly lower than the model surface level;and such observations may contain large representativity errors as near-surface observations are often affected by the local environment,such as nearby buildings and tall *** the recent introduction of a significant number of mobile communication towers that are typically over40 m AGL in china,a campaign has been proposed to use such towers to build a future observing system with an observing height of 40 m.A series of observing system simulation experiments has been conducted to assess the potential utility of such a future observing system as part of a feasibility *** experiments were conducted using the Weather {1. and Forecasting model and its Rapid Update Cycle data assimilation *** results revealed the possibility of improving weather forecasting by raising present weather stations to a height of 40 m;this would not only enable more observations to pass the terrain check,but should also reduce interpolation ***,improvements for temperature,humidity and wind forecasting could be achieved as the accuracy of the initial conditions increases.

关键词： weather forecasting humidity

Widespread glacier advances across the Tian Shan during Marine Isotope Stage 3 not supported by climate-glaciation simulations

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Fundamental research 2023年第1期3卷 102-110页

作者： Qing Yan Lewis A.Owen Chuncheng Guo Zhongshi Zhang Jinzhe Zhang huijun {1. nansen-{1. {2. {2. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster/Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Marine Earthand Atmospheric ScienceNorth Carolina State UniversityRaleighNC 27695United States NORCE Norwegian research Centre Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergenNorway Department of atmospheric Science School of Environmental StudiesChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China

Whether there were more extensive glaciations during the Marine Isotope Stage(MIS)3 relative to MIS 2.across the Tian Shan in Central Asia is intensely debated because of the uncertainty in chronological data and fully understanding the driving *** help resolve the ongoing debate,we assess the climate sensitivity of the glaciers and reconstruct the extent of glaciation during MIS 2.and 3 across the Tian Shan,using a glacier-resolving(2.0×2.0 m)ice sheet model asynchronously coupled with a global climate *** results demonstrate that the equilibrium-line altitude(ELA)over the Tian Shan decreases by∼1.0 m for every 1.C cooling under a modern precipitation regime,but precipitation reduction greatly lowers the sensitivity of the glaciers to temperature decrease(e.g.,the effect of 2.C cooling is broadly offset by a 50%decrease in precipitation).Under the modeled colder/drier-than-present climate,the model predicts an ELA depression(∆ELA)of∼75 m(1.2.m)over the Tian Shan during MIS 3 interstadials(stadials).The extent of MIS 3 glaciation is much smaller than that during MIS 2.i.e.,∆ELA=∼72. m).The more extensive glaciation during MIS 2.is largely attributed to the enhanced summer ***,through a site-to-site model-data comparison,we find that the closest match between the modeled glacier margin and the locations of the glacial deposits previously argued to be MIS 3 is generally achieved under MIS 2.climatic *** results suggest more extensive glacier advances over the Tian Shan during MIS 2.than MIS 3 on a regional scale,although MIS 3 glaciation may still occur in individual glacier *** pattern suggests general synchronicity with the timing of maximum Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial,which should be further tested in a multimodel framework in the future.

关键词： Glacier modeling Glacier sensitivity MIS 3 MIS 2 Tian Shan Paleoclimate modeling

Influence of Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Across the Globe

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Journal of Meteorological research 2021年第3期35卷 428-443页

作者： Tao wang Jiapeng MIAO {1. wang Jianqi SUN Climate Change research {1. Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 nansen-{1. {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044

This study investigates the influences of strong tropical volcanic eruptions(SVEs) on daily temperature and precipitation extreme events using long-term simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3(HadCM3) and the Community Earth System Model version 1.1.CESM1.. The results indicate that the occurrences of daily hot extremes and daily heavy precipitation extremes decrease over most parts of the world in the peak forcing years of SVEs. Due to the volcanic cooling effect, the average probability of daily hot extremes decreases by approximately 50% across the globe. The decrease in intensity is stronger for midlatitude land regions and tropical South *** contrast, daily cold extremes occur more frequently over most parts of continental regions. Globally, a cold extreme event expected once every 3 years under non-volcanic conditions can be expected every 1.5 years on average in the peak forcing years. Overall, the SVE-induced cooling effect plays a dominant role in regulating daily cold and hot extremes. Over high-latitude Eurasian regions, in contrast to other continental regions, the probability and intensity of daily cold extremes decrease due to an SVE-strengthened polar vortex and the associated temperature advection anomalies. With regard to daily heavy precipitation extremes, the probability and intensity both decrease over most monsoon areas. Further analysis suggests that the reduced probability and intensity of daily heavy precipitation extremes are mainly due to the SVE-induced global decrease in the water-holding capacity.

关键词： strong tropical volcanic eruption(SVE) daily extremes temperature precipitation

A Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function-Based Scheme for the Balanced Initial Ensemble Generation of an Ensemble Kalman Filter

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2010年第3期3卷 165-169页

作者： Zheng Fei zhu {1. international {1. for Climate and Environment Science (ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer {1. and atmospheric Chemistry (LAPC) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The initial ensemble perturbations for an ensemble data assimilation system are expected to reasonably sample model uncertainty at the time of analysis to further reduce analysis uncertainty. Therefore, the careful choice of an initial ensemble perturbation method that dynamically cycles ensemble perturbations is required for the optimal performance of the system. Based on the multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MEOF) method, a new ensemble initialization scheme is developed to generate balanced initial perturbations for the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation, with a reasonable consideration of the physical relationships between different model variables. The scheme is applied in assimilation experiments with a global spectral atmospheric model and with real observations. The proposed perturbation method is compared to the commonly used method of spatially-correlated random perturbations. The comparisons show that the model uncertainties prior to the first analysis time, which are forecasted from the balanced ensemble initial fields, maintain a much more reasonable spread and a more accurate forecast error covariance than those from the randomly perturbed initial fields. The analysis results are further improved by the balanced ensemble initialization scheme due to more accurate background information. Also, a 2.-day continuous assimilation experiment shows that the ensemble spreads for each model variable are still retained in reasonable ranges without considering additional perturbations or inflations during the assimilation cycles, while the ensemble spreads from the randomly perturbed initialization scheme decrease and collapse rapidly.

关键词： ensemble Kalman filter initial ensemble generation multivariate empirical orthogonal function

The Predictability of Ocean Environments that Contributed to the 2.2./2.0}Extreme Cold Events in china:2.2./2.0}La Niña and 2.2. Arctic Sea Ice Loss

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2022年第4期39卷 658-675页

作者： Fei ZHENG Ji-Ping LIU Xiang-Hui FANG Mi-Rong SONG Chao-Yuan YANG Yuan YUAN Ke-Xin LI Ji wang {1. {2. international {1. for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany State University of New YorkAlbanyNY 12222USA Department of atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&{1. of atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China School of atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China National Climate center Beijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China beijing Municipal Climate {1. Beijing 100089China

Several consecutive extreme cold events impacted china during the first half of winter 2.2./2.1}breaking the low-temperature records in many *** to make accurate climate predictions of extreme cold events is still an urgent *** synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and cold tropical Pacific has been demonstrated to intensify the intrusions of cold air from polar regions into middle-high latitudes,further influencing the cold conditions in ***,climate models failed to predict these two ocean environments at expected lead *** seasonal climate forecasts only predicted the 2.2./2.1}La Niña after the signal had already become apparent and significantly underestimated the observed Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2.2. with a 1.2.month *** this work,the corresponding physical factors that may help improve the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions are further *** the 2.2./2.1}La Niña prediction,through sensitivity experiments involving different {1.-oceanic initial conditions,the predominant southeasterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific in spring of 2.2. are diagnosed to play an irreplaceable role in triggering this cold event.A reasonable inclusion of {1. surface winds into the initialization will help the model predict La Niña development from the early spring of *** predicting the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2.2.,an anomalously cyclonic circulation from the central Arctic Ocean predicted by the model,which swept abnormally hot air over Siberia into the Arctic Ocean,is recognized as an important contributor to successfully predicting the minimum Arctic sea ice extent.

关键词： extreme cold event predictability La Niña Arctic sea ice loss