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Science china Earth Sciences 2006年第5期49卷 554-560页

作者： FAN Ke1,2.3 & wang huijun2.1. {2.-zhu {2. research center, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., china 2. Department of atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, china 3. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, {12. 100049, china nansen-{1. {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming China Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and its influence on East Asian climate during both boreal winter and spring are addressed. The results show that the positive AAO anomaly decreases the cold activity over East Asia during both boreal winter and spring. AAO-related barotropic meridional teleconnection from Antarctic to Arctic is found through analysis of mean me- ridional circulations. This meridional teleconnection is remarkable over Eurasia during boreal winter and over the Pacific Ocean during boreal spring. The results also show that zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in Southern Hemisphere has well positive correlation with that of Eurasia during boreal winter and has negative correlation with Pacific North American teleconnection (PNA) during boreal spring, which again display the meridional teleconnection. Thus, local meridional teleconnection is a possible linkage for interaction of circulations at mid-high latitudes between both hemispheres.

关键词： Antarctic Oscillation, Eurasian west wind, meridional teleconnection, mean meridional circulation.

Extraseasonal ensemble numerical predictions of winter climate over china

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第19期48卷 2121-2125页

作者： LANG Xianmei, wang huijun & {2. {2. nansen-zhu international research center and LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., china nansen {1. {2. {2. center and LASG institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences China

Using the nine-level atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the{1. (IAP9L-AGCM) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 30-year extraseasonal short-term ensemble hincast of winter climate is performed, with integrations starting from annual autumn during 1.69—1.98. Winter climate predictability over china is then evaluated for the first time. It follows that the predictability is higher in tropics than in extratropics. Also, it is higher over ocean compared with land, especially for surface air temperature. With height increasing in troposphere, the predictability of geopotential height slightly changes zonally, but for weakening of band-ship distribution and dropping near the date line. Of all analyzed variables, the prediction skill of air temperature and geopotential height (precipitation) is the highest (smallest). In addition, the predictability of winter climate over china and even East Asia enhances obviously during ENSO cycle, especially during La Nia phase. Simulation comparison against verifying analysis for surface temperature anomaly exhibits the model抯 skill in predicting surface temperature抯 interannual variation trend in winter.

关键词：冬季气候中国气候预报数字模型表面温度

Improved ENSO simulation in regional coupled GCM using regressive correction method

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Science china Earth Sciences 2007年第8期50卷 1258-1265页

作者： FU WeiWei1 & ZHOU GuangQing2.1 nansen-zhu {2. {2. center (NZC), institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), beijing 10002., china 2.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), institute of At-mospheric physics, CAS, beijing 10002., china nansen-{1. {2. {2. center (NZC) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS Beijing China

A regressive correction method is presented with the primary goal of improving ENSO simulation in regional coupled GCM. It focuses on the correction of ocean-atmosphere exchanged fluxes. On the basis of numerical experiments and analysis, the method can be described as follows: first, driving the ocean model with heat and momentum flux computed from a long-term observation data set; the pro-duced SST is then applied to force the AGCM as its boundary condition; after that the AGCM’s simula-tion and the corresponding observation can be correlated by a linear regressive formula. Thus the re-gressive correction coefficients for the simulation with spatial and temporal variation could be obtained by linear fitting. Finally the coefficients are applied to redressing the variables used for the calculation of the exchanged air-sea flux in the coupled model when it starts integration. This method together with the anomaly coupling method is tested in a regional coupled model, which is composed of a global grid-point atmospheric general circulation model and a high-resolution tropical Pacific Ocean model. The comparison of the results shows that it is superior to the anomaly coupling both in reducing the coupled model ‘climate drift’ and in improving the ENSO simulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

关键词： anomaly coupling regressive correction method regional coupled model ENSO simulation

Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2.& CUI Xuan 3 1 National Climate center,{2. Meteorological Administration,beijing 100081,{2. 2.nansen-zhu international research center,institute of atmospheric {12.,Chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 10002.,{2. 3 National Meteorological center,{2. Meteorological Administration,beijing 100081,{2. National Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China nansen-{1. {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National Meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

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Science china Earth Sciences 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： FAN Ke1, LIN MeiJing1,2.& GAO YuZhong3 1 nansen-{2. international {2. center, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., china 2.Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100049, china 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, china nansen-{1. {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration Harbin China

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the{2. circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1.65-1.99, with an average relative root mean square error of 1.% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2.00-2.07, with an average relative root mean square error of 2.3} for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1.65-2.06. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1001-1012页

作者： SUN JianQi1, YUAN Wei2.& GAO YuZhong3 1 nansen-{2. international {2. Centre, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., china 2.7} Meteorological Administration Training Centre, beijing 100081, china 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory, Harbin 150030, china nansen-{1. {2. {2. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China china Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing China Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory Harbin China

Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1.60s and the late 1.70s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related {2. circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast{1. via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern{1.. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern{1.. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.

关键词： Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation East Asian summer monsoon South Asian summer monsoon wave train abrupt climate change

Natural interdecadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon in the late 2.th century

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Science Bulletin 2005年第17期 109-115页

作者： jiang dabang1,{1.,{2., Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., china 2. Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Tem-perate East Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., china

Based on the reanalysis data throughout 1.48―2.02.as derived from the United States National centers for Environmental Prediction and National center for Atmos-pheric {2., it is revealed that East Asian summer mon-soon (EASM) intensity weakens on an interdecadal timescale since the mid-1.60s, and twice interdecadal jumps are re-corded in the EASM intensity index series in the late 2.th century, respectively occurring in the mid-1.60s and mid- to late 1.70s. Six globally coupled atmosphere-ocean models’ outputs under the SRES A2.greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenario, provided by the IPCC Data Distribution center and the Hadley center for Climate Prediction and {2., are then systematically examined. It follows that the above EASM weakening is not closely related to synchro-nizing anthropogenic global warming, and, therefore, it should be qualitatively natural change process. Over the 2.0}t century, the EASM intensity is likely increased slightly by continually intensified greenhouse effect relative to the late 2.th century.

关键词： East Asian summer monsoon interdecadal weakening global warming natural change.

Modeling the climate effects of different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau on Asian summer monsoon evolution

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2012年第35期57卷 4617-4626页

作者： ZHANG Ran 1,jiang dabang 1,2.3,LIU XiaoDong 4 & TIAN ZhiPing 2.5 1 Climate Change{2. center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 10002.,china 2.nansen-zhu international{2. Centre,institute of {12. physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 10002.,china 3 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment{2. for Temperate East Asia,Chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 10002.,china 4 State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi’an 710075,china 5 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 100049,china Climate Change research {1. Chinese Academy of Sciences nansen-{1. {2. {2. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Temperate East Asia Chinese

Considering the different uplifting time of different subregions of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau(TP),a series of numerical simulations have been conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model(CAM4) developed at the National center for {1.{2. to explore the effects of the phased tectonic uplift of the Himalaya-TP on the evolution of Asian summer *** results show that the uplifts of the Himalaya and northern TP significantly affect the evolutions of South Asian summer monsoon and northern East Asian summer monsoon *** is,the tectonic uplift of the Himalaya intensifies the South Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in South Asia,whereas the uplift of the northern TP intensifies the northern East Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in northern East *** with previous simulations,current comparative analyses of modeling results for different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-TP help deepen our understanding of the evolutionary history of Asian monsoons.

关键词：青藏高原隆升喜马拉雅亚洲季风高原气候夏季季风次区域隆起演化建模

A three-dimensional variational ocean data assimilation system:Scheme and preliminary results

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Science china Earth Sciences 2006年第11期49卷 1212-1222页

作者： zhu jiang1,2. ZHOU Guangqing1, YAN Changxiang1, FU Weiwei1 & YOU Xiaobao1,3 1. {2. {2. for Climate and Environment Sciences, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., china 2. jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 2.0044, china 3. beijing institute of Applied Meteorology, beijing 10002., china international {1. for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China beijing {1. of Applied Meteorology Beijing China

A new 3DVAR-based Ocean Variational Analysis System (OVALS) is developed. OVALS is capable of assimilating in situ sea water temperature and salinity observations and satellite altimetry data. As a component of OVALS, a new variational scheme is proposed to assimilate the sea surface height data. This scheme considers both the vertical correlation of background errors and the nonlinear temperature-salinity relationship which is derived from the generalization of the linear balance constraints to the nonlinear in the 3DVAR. By this scheme, the model temperature and salinity fields are directly adjusted from the altimetry data. Additionally, OVALS can assimilate the temperature and salinity profiles from the ARGO floats which have been implemented in recent years and some temperature and salinity data such as from expendable bathythermograph, moored ocean buoys, etc. A 2.0}year assimilation experiment is carried out by using OVALS and the Tropical Pacific circulation model. The results show that the assimilation system may effectively improve the estimations of temperature and salinity by assimilating all kinds of observations. Moreover, the root mean square errors of temperature and salinity in the upper depth less than 42. m reach 0.63℃ and 0.34 psu.

关键词： data assimilation, 3DVAR, sea surface height, ARGO floats.

Relationship and its instability of ENSO--Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells

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Science china Earth Sciences 2007年第1期50卷 145-152页

作者： SU MingFeng1,2.& wang {2. 1 nansen-zhu {2. research center, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., china 2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100039, china nansen-{1. {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 China nansen-{1. {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Monthly data of Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1.51.to 2.00 are calculated using historical precipitation and temperature data for Chinese 1.0 stations. Temporal and spatial pat-terns of the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature, which is similar to the linear PDSI trend during 1.51.2.00 calculated using all monthly data. The EOF analysis also reveals that the leading mode correlates significantly with ENSO events in time and space. The ENSO EOF shows that during the typical warm phase of ENSO, surface conditions are drier in most regions of china, especially North china, but wetter than normal in the southern regions of Changjiang River, and Northwest china. During the typical cold phase of ENSO, these anomalies reverse sign. From 1.51.to 2.00, there are large multi-year to decadal variations in droughts and wet spells over china, which are all closely related to strong El Nio events. In other words, when one strong El Nio event happens, there is a possible big variability in droughts and wet spells over china on the multi-year or decadal scale. Studies also sug-gest that during the last 2.3 decades climate changes over china, especially North china's drying and northwest china's wetting, are closely related to the shift in ENSO towards warmer events and global warming since the late 1.70s. The instability of the relationship is also studied. It is revealed that there is a good correlation between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells in the 3―8-year band, but the correlation between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is instable. Studies suggest that there are decadal changes in the correlation: the wavelet coherency between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is high during 1.51.1.62.and 1.76―1.91. but low during 1.63―1.75 and 1.92.2.00.

关键词： PDSI variations droughts and wet Spells ENSO instability.