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Comparison of Ten Potential Evapotranspiration Models and Their Attribution Analyses for Ten chinese Drainage Basins

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Advances in atmospheric {1. 2020年第9期37卷 959-974页

作者： Ruiheng XIE Aihui wang School of atmospheric {1. Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China nansen-{1. {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Potential evapotranspiration(EPET)is usually calculated by empirical methods from surface meteorological variables,such as temperature,radiation and wind *** in-situ measured pan evaporation(ETpan)can also be used as a proxy for *** this study,EPET values computed from ten models are compared with observed ETpan data in ten chinese river basins for the period 1.61.*** daily observed meteorological variables at 2.67 stations are used as the input to those models,and a ranking scheme is applied to rank the statistical quantities(ratio of standard deviations,correlation coefficient,and ratio of trends)between ETpan and modeled EPET in different river *** are large deviations between the modeled EPET and the ETpan in both the magnitude and the annual trend at most *** eight of the basins(except for Southeast and Southwest China),ETpan shows decreasing trends with magnitudes ranging between−0.01.mm d−1.yr−1.and−0.03 mm d−1.yr−1.while the decreasing trends in modeled EPET are less than−0.01.mm d−1.yr−*** comparisons among different models in different river basins suggest that PETHam1.is the best model in the Pearl River basin,PETHam2.outperforms other models in the Huaihe River,Yangtze River and Yellow River basins,and PETFAO is the best model for the remaining *** analyses reveal that wind speed and sunshine duration are two important factors for decreasing EPET in most basins except in Southeast and Southwest *** increasing EPET trend in Southeast China is mainly attributed to the reduced relative humidity.

关键词： potential evapotranspiration model pan evaporation model comparison sensitivity analysis China

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近几年我国霾污染实时季节预测概要

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大气科学学报 2019年第1期42卷 2-13页

作者：尹志聪王会军段明铿南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/大气科学学院江苏南京210044 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心北京100029

近些年,中国东部经历了严重的霾污染,对人体健康、交通安全、生态系统以及社会经济有巨大的危害。在1.以内的霾污染预报之外,季节尺度的霾污染预测可以给减排治污措施的制定提供更长时间尺度的科学支撑。本文以年际增量为预测对象,选... 详细信息

近些年,中国东部经历了严重的霾污染,对人体健康、交通安全、生态系统以及社会经济有巨大的危害。在1.以内的霾污染预报之外,季节尺度的霾污染预测可以给减排治污措施的制定提供更长时间尺度的科学支撑。本文以年际增量为预测对象,选取前期外强迫因子为自变量,分别针对京津冀和长三角区域建立逐月的冬季霾日数季节尺度预测模型,并开展了实时的季节预测。总体来看,京津冀和长三角区域预测模型的性能大体处于相似的水平,均方根误差在2.d左右,对距平符号的捕捉率在80%以上,对霾日数变化的长期趋势具有很好的再现能力。在2.1./2.1.年冬季京津冀霾日数实时预测中,模型预测的结果相对于常年值的定性结论全部准确,相对于前一年污染状况的结论大多数准确。在2.1./2.1.年冬季长三角霾日数实时预测中,1.月和1.的预测误差较小,2.的预测误差在2.d左右。

关键词：霾污染气候预测减排

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Evaluation of the effect of air pollution control during the beijing 2.08 Olympic Games using Lidar data

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chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第13期55卷 1311-1316页

作者： YANG Ting wang ZiFa ZHANG Bai wang XiQuan wang Wei GBAUIDI Alex GONG YanBang Geography and Remote sensing research {1. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology Chinese Academy of Sciences Changchun 130012 China nansen-{1. {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

To examine the effect of pollution control measures on beijing air quality during the 2.08 Olympic Games, this paper analyzes the variation of aerosol extinction coefficient observed with a Dual-wavelength Polarized Lidar in beijing during the Olympic Games. The results show that ({2. during the beijing Olympic Games, the aerosol extinction coefficient decreased to about 42.3% in the surface layer (below 2.0 m) compared with that in 2.07 under almost the same meteorological conditions, indicating the effectiveness of local air pollution control measures in beijing areas; (2. the analysis of the aerosol extinction coefficient obtained before (Jul. 2.–Aug. 7, 2.08) and during the beijing Olympic Games (Aug. 8–Aug. 2., 2.08) shows a maximum decrease of daily aerosol extinction coefficient in layer of 0.5-{2.5 km. To elucidate such a phenomenon, the transport of PM{2. from surrounding areas to beijing was simulated by NAQPMS (the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System) during Jul. 2. to Aug. 2., 2.08. Analysis of PM{2. transport from neighboring areas indicated a decrease of 36.6% during the Olympic Games. This demonstrated the efficiency of pollution control measures in surrounding areas in improving air quality in beijing.

关键词： 2.08年北京奥运会控制效果空气污染激光雷达雷达数据空气质量预报 2.08年奥运会消光系数

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Drought over China in the 2.0}t Century: Results of RegCM3

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2012年第6期5卷 509-513页

作者： LIU Ke jiang Da-Bang MA Jian-Yong nansen-{1. {2. {2. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Climate Change research {1. Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Temperate East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081 China

Based on 1.0-year simulations of a regional climate model, RegCM3, under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1. scenario, the effective drought index (EDI) is used to project the future drought change in China. During the baseline period 1.86-2.05, RegCM3 was found to reliably simulate the spatial pattern of drought over the country. Over the 2.0}t century, the regionally averaged EDI should increase, corresponding to a decrease of drought, while the probability of extreme drought events should increase. Geographically, drought should clearly increase in Northeast China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley, Southwest China, and southern Tibet but decrease in most parts of the rest of the country.

关键词： China drought EDI RegCM3

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盘点气候风险机遇,展望健康繁荣未来

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科学通报 2024年第27期69卷 4005-4011页

作者：张诗卉张弛蔡闻佳白玉琪 Max Callaghan 常楠陈彬陈慧琪程亮亮戴瀚程代鑫范维澄房小怡高仝耿阳关大博胡艺馨华峻翊黄存瑞黄弘黄建斌黄小猛纪思翰蒋俏蕾姜晓朋 Gregor Kiesewetter 李湉湉梁璐林波荣林华亮刘欢刘起勇刘小波刘钊刘竹刘昱甫陆波鲁晨曦罗震宇马伟米志付任超 Marina Romanello 沈鉴翔苏婧孙语泽孙昕璐汤绪 Maria Walawender 王灿王情汪蕊 Laura Warnecke 魏汪宇文三妹谢杨熊辉徐冰颜钰杨秀姚芳虹俞乐袁嘉灿曾仪娉张镜张璐张锐张尚辰张少辉赵梦真郑大山周浩周景博周子乔罗勇宫鹏清华大学地球系统科学系北京100084 北京理工大学管理学院北京100081 Mercator research {1. on Global Commons and Climate Change Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate ChangeBerlin 10829Germany 南京医科大学公共卫生学院南京211166 北京师范大学环境学院北京100875 中山大学公共卫生学院广州510080 北京大学环境科学与工程学院北京100871 清华大学公共安全研究所北京100084 清华大学工程物理系北京100084 中国气象科学研究院气象影响与风险研究中心北京100086 山东师范大学商学院济南250013 清华大学建筑学院北京100084 南方科技大学统计与数据科学系深圳518055 中国海洋大学国际事务与公共管理学院青岛266003 清华大学万科公共卫生学院北京100084 清华大学新闻与传播学院北京100084 世界卫生组织驻华代表处北京100600 Pollution Management research Group EnergyClimateand Environment ProgramInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA)Laxenburg 1-A-2361Austria 中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所环境健康风险评估室北京102206 Department of Landscape Architecture&Environmental Planning University of CaliforniaBerkeley CA 94607USA 清华大学环境学院北京100084 中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所传染病预防控制国家重点实验室北京102206 北京经济管理职业学院临空经济管理学院北京100102 中国气象局国家气候中心北京100081 Geography College of Life and Environmental SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeter EX12LUUK 山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院流行病学系济南250002 The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction University College LondonLondon WC1H 0ALUK 香港大学建筑学院中国香港999077 institute for Global Health University College LondonLondon WC1H 0ALUK 清华大学人文学院北京100084 复旦大学大气与海洋系/大气科学研究院上海200438 复旦大学极端天气/气候事件与人体健康风险互联和治理国际卓越中心上海200438 北京航空航天大学经济与管理学院北京100083 香港科技大学计算机科学与工程系广州511453 清华大学气候变化与可持续发展研究院北京100084 北京大学体育教研部北京100871 清华大学苏世民学院北京100084 清华大学城市治理与可持续发展研究院北京100084 百度研究院北京100091 香港大学地球科学系和地理系中国香港999077

气候变化带来的健康风险与日俱增,煤炭消费及相关碳排放量的反弹,再度敲响了中国气候变化警钟.2.2.年,中国面临了严峻的气候挑战.极端天气事件发生的频率和强度不断上升,许多地区气温纪录屡创新高,全国平均气温攀升至历史第二高位,同时... 详细信息

气候变化带来的健康风险与日俱增,煤炭消费及相关碳排放量的反弹,再度敲响了中国气候变化警钟.2.2.年,中国面临了严峻的气候挑战.极端天气事件发生的频率和强度不断上升,许多地区气温纪录屡创新高,全国平均气温攀升至历史第二高位,同时降水量自2.1.年以来创新低,南方地区遭遇夏秋连旱,而湖南和东北地区则出现了极端降雨和洪涝灾害.采取及时、充分的措施不仅能减轻气候变化对健康的影响,还将保护基础设施不被极端天气破坏.

关键词：煤炭消费极端天气事件基础设施气候变化极端降雨碳排放量气候风险盘点

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The Relationship between Total Ozone and Local Climate at Kunming Using Dobson and TOMS Data

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2010年第4期3卷 207-212页

作者： wang Jun wang Hui-Jun nansen-{1. {2. {2. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Climate Change research {1. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

This paper uses Dobson spectrometer total ozone data,Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer(TOMS) data and radiosonde reports from Kunming,which is located in southwest China,from 1.80 to 2.08 to analyze the total ozone-climate *** total ozone decadal long-term trend and abrupt change were studied using enhanced Dobson data whose missing data were amended by the TOMS *** linear regression was used for the selection of the key factors that influence total ozone,including temperatures,geopotential heights,depressions of the dew point,wind velocities,and total solar *** relationship between the selected factors and total ozone was analyzed using the methods of stepwise regression and partial least squares regression(PLSR).Results showed that although the PLSR method was slightly better and more reasonable to study the relationship than stepwise regression,while the two regression results were only slightly *** was also suggested that local climate,especially local circulation and temperature,were important for the variations in total ozone,and the local climate could almost linearly explain 80% of the variance of total *** relationship also indicated that the abrupt change of total ozone in the year 1.94 may be related to abrupt local climate change.

关键词： Dobson TOMS Total ozone partial least squares regression

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Twentieth-century Pacific Decadal Oscillation simulated by CMIP5 coupled models

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2018年第1期11卷 94-101页

作者： wang Tao MIAO Jia-Peng anansen-{1. {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China College of Earth sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The authors examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of the simulated Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） in 1.9 historical （i.e. all forcings） simulations derived from 2. coupled models within CMIPS. Compared with observations, most simulations successfully simulate the observed PDO pattern and its teleconnections to the SSTs in the tropical and southern Pacific. BNU-ESM, CanESM2. CCSM4, CESM 1.-FASTCHEM, FGOALS-g2. GFDL CM3, MIROCS, and NorESM 1.-M show better performance. Compared with the temporal phases of the observed PDO in the twentieth century, only five simulations -- from CNRM^CMS, CSIRO Mk3o6.0, HadCM3, and IPSL-CMSA-LR -- simulate an evolution of the PDO similar to that derived from observation, which suggests that current coupled models can barely reproduce the observed phase shifting of the PDO. To capture characteristics of the observed PDO in the twentieth century, a requirement is that all the relevant external forcings are included in the models. How to add realistic oceanic initial states into the model may be another key point.

关键词： Pacific Decadal Oscillation CMIPS twentieth century coupled model

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Model Projections of East Asian Summer Climate under the ‘Free Arctic’ Scenario

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2010年第3期3卷 176-180页

作者： wang Hui-Jun Zhang Ying nansen-{1. {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Climate Change research {1. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

This paper addresses the ‘ice-free Arctic’ issue under the future global warming scenario. Four coupled climate models used in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were selected to project summer climate conditions over East Asia once the Arctic becomes ice-free. The models project that an ice-free Arctic summer will begin in the 2.60s under the SRESA1. (according to IPCC Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios) simulations. Our results show that the East Asian summer monsoons will tend to be stronger and that the water vapor transport to central northern China will be strengthened, leading to increased summer precipitation in central northern China. The models also project an intensified Antarctic Oscillation, a condition which favors increased precipitation in South China’s Yangtze River Valley. The overall precipitation in Northwest China is projected to increase under ice-free Arctic summer conditions.

关键词： ice-free Arctic East Asian monsoon global warming projections

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大兴安岭和长白山地形影响东北夏季降水的数值模拟研究

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气候与环境研究 2020年第3期25卷 268-280页

作者：何博翰孙建奇于恩涛王会军张梦琪华维成都信息工程大学成都610225 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢—南森国际研究中心北京100029 气象灾害预警预报与评估协同创新中心南京信息工程大学南京210044 中国科学院大学北京100049

利用区域数值模式WRF-ARW(V3.9)开展高分辨率数值模拟试验,研究了东北地区大兴安岭和长白山地形对该地区夏季降水的单独和共同影响。结果表明,东北地区两大山脉地形可以显著影响东北及其周边区域的大气环流和降水。大兴安岭和长白山地... 详细信息

利用区域数值模式WRF-ARW(V3.9)开展高分辨率数值模拟试验,研究了东北地区大兴安岭和长白山地形对该地区夏季降水的单独和共同影响。结果表明,东北地区两大山脉地形可以显著影响东北及其周边区域的大气环流和降水。大兴安岭和长白山地形的阻挡作用使得夏季偏南气流在两个山脉的迎风坡一侧堆积,引起局地水汽增加并产生上升运动,因此两个山脉的迎风坡一侧降水增加;而在两个山脉的背风坡一侧,局地水汽减少并伴随下沉运动,因此两个山脉的背风坡一侧降水减少。大兴安岭地形的存在使得其东侧到松嫩平原地区夏季降水增加1.09 mm d^-1.相较参照试验增幅为30%),而使其西侧蒙古东部地区夏季降水减少0.69 mm d^-1.相较参照试验减幅为2.%);长白山地形的存在使得长白山南侧到朝鲜半岛地区夏季降水增加1.76 mm d^-1.相较参照试验增幅为2.%),而使其北侧三江平原地区夏季降水减少0.81.mm d^-1.相较参照试验减幅为2.%)。当大兴安岭与长白山同时存在时,两者的协同作用会减弱蒙古东部、松嫩平原和朝鲜半岛地区夏季降水的响应,而增强三江平原地区夏季降水的响应。该研究结果对于理解东北地区当代气候的形成具有重要的科学意义。

关键词：区域数值模式地形影响大兴安岭长白山夏季降水东北

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Statistical Downscaling Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Southeastern China

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2011年第3期4卷 173-180页

作者： LIU Ying FAN Ke wang Hui-Jun nansen-{1. {2. {2. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of the chinese {1. of Scienees Beijing 100049 China

A statistical downscaling approach based on multiple-linear-regression(MLR) for the prediction of summer precipitation anomaly in southeastern China was established,which was based on the outputs of seven operational dynamical models of Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction(DEMETER) and observed *** was found that the anomaly correlation coefficients(ACCs) spatial pattern of June-July-August(JJA) precipitation over southeastern China between the seven models and the observation were increased significantly;especially in the central and the northeastern areas,the ACCs were all larger than 0.42.above 95% level) and 0.53(above 99% level).Meanwhile,the root-mean-square errors(RMSE) were reduced in each model along with the multi-model ensemble(MME) for some of the stations in the northeastern area;additionally,the value of RMSE difference between before and after downscaling at some stations were larger than 1.mm *** averaged JJA rainfall anomaly temporal series of the downscaling scheme can capture the main characteristics of observation,while the correlation coefficients(CCs) between the temporal variations of the observation and downscaling results varied from 0.52.to 0.69 with corresponding variations from-0.2. to 0.2. for CCs between the observation and outputs of the models.

关键词： statistical downscaling DEMETER south-eastern China summer precipitation anomaly

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