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Quantifying the parameter dependent basin of the unsafe regime of asymmetric Lévy-noise-induced critical transitions

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Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition) 2021年第1期42卷 65-84页

作者： jinzhong MA Yong XU Yongge LI Ruilan TIAN Shao juan MA j.kurths School of Mathematical Sciences Shanxi UniversityTaiyuan 030000China Department of Applied Mathematics Northwestern Polytechnical UniversityXi’an 710072China MIIT Key Laboratory of Dynamics and Control of Complex Systems Northwestern Polytechnical UniversityXi’an 710072China Department of Engineering Mechanics Shijiazhuang Tiedao UniversityShijiazhuang 050043China School of Mathematics&Information Science North Minzu UniversityYinchuan 750021China Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam 14412Germany Department of Physics Humboldt University at BerlinBerlin 12489Germany

In real systems,the unpredictable jump changes of the random environment can induce the critical transitions(CTs)between two non-adjacent states,which are more *** an asymmetric Lévy-noise-induced tri-stable model with desirable,sub-desirable,and undesirable states as a prototype class of real systems,a prediction of the noise-induced CTs from the desirable state directly to the undesirable one is carried *** first calculate the region that the current state of the given model is absorbed into the undesirable state based on the escape probability,which is named as the absorbed ***,a new concept of the parameter dependent basin of the unsafe regime(PDBUR)under the asymmetric Lévy noise is *** is an efficient tool for approximately quantifying the ranges of the parameters,where the noise-induced CTs from the desirable state directly to the undesirable one may *** importantly,it may provide theoretical guidance for us to adopt some measures to avert a noise-induced catastrophic CT.

关键词： tri-stable model asymmetric Lévy noise critical transition(CT) escape probability absorbed region parameter dependent basin of unsafe regime(PDBUR)

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Key role of time delay and connection topology in shaping the dynamics of noisy genetic regulatory network

Key role of time delay and connection topology in shaping th...

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The5th全国动力学与控制青年学者研讨会

作者：杨晓丽 D.V.Senthilkumar j.kurths College of Mathematics and Information Science Shaanxi Normal University Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 14473 PotsdamGermany Department of Applied Mathematics Northwestern Polytechnical University Institute of Physics Humboldt University

The present work focuses on a paced genetic regulatory small-world network with time-delayed *** the dynamical behaviors including temporal resonance and spatial synchronization are evolved under the influence of time delay and connection topology are *** numerical simulations some interesting results are *** stochastic resonance together with delay-induced resonance is firstly *** the diverse role on resonance properties played by time delay and

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Linkage Between European and East Asian Heatwaves on Synoptic Scales

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journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 97-105页

作者：蔡奋颖刘彩红杨崧邓开强 kurths jürgen School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)ZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China Department of Complexity Science Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research(PIK)Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdam 14473 Germany Department of Water and Climate Risk Institute for Environmental StudiesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdam 1087HV Netherlands Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China Department of Physics Humboldt-Universität zu BerlinBerlin 12489 Germany

Concurrent extreme weather events in geographically distant areas potentially cause high-end risks for *** using network analysis,the present study managed to identify significant nearly-simultaneous occurrences of heatwaves between the grid cells in East Asia and Eastern Europe,even though they are geographically far away from each *** further composite analysis,this study revealed that hot events first occurred in Eastern Europe,typically with a time lag of3-4 days before the East Asian heatwave *** eastward propagating atmospheric wave train,known as the circumglobal teleconnection(CGT)pattern,bridged the sequent occurrences of extreme events in these two remote *** blockings,amplified by surface warming over Eastern Europe,not only enhanced local heat extremes but also excited a CGT-like pattern characterized by alternative anomalies of high and low *** downstream anticyclones in the middle and upper troposphere reduced local cloud cover and increased downward solar radiation,thereby facilitating the formation of heatwaves over East *** half of East Asian heatwave events were preceded by Eastern European heatwave events in the 10-day time range before East Asian heatwave *** investigation of heatwave teleconnection in the two distant regions exhibits strong potential to improve the prediction accuracy of East Asian heatwaves.

关键词： concurrent heatwaves Eastern Europe East Asia circum-global teleconnection pattern

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相关长度增长的观测作为大震前临界点特征的指标

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世界地震译丛 2002年第5期33卷 1-9页

作者： G.Zller S.Hainzl j.kurths 王俊国天津市地震局

利用空间相关长度检验了地震的临界点理论。临界点附近的系统与符合幂函数式破裂时间关系的相关长度发散有关。我们利用单链群分析法直接从地震目录中估算相关长度。因此,我们假设中等地震的分布反映了区域应力场的状态。分析的参数由... 详细信息

利用空间相关长度检验了地震的临界点理论。临界点附近的系统与符合幂函数式破裂时间关系的相关长度发散有关。我们利用单链群分析法直接从地震目录中估算相关长度。因此,我们假设中等地震的分布反映了区域应力场的状态。分析的参数由优化程序确定,所得结果对照产生震中、震级和余震的实际分布的泊松过程进行了检测。并对加州1952年以来发生的所有 M≥6.5地震作了系统分析。事实上我们在多数情况下观测到了增长的相关长度。随机数据中可以发现这一特征的零假设以99%的置信水平被否定。我们进而发现主震震级 M 与临界区 R(主震前相关长度〈ξ_(max)〉)之间的尺度关系 log R～0.7M(log〈ξ_(max)〉)～0.5M)与理论值有很好的一致性。

关键词：临界点空间相关长度地震单链群分析法震级余震

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自组织临界系统中地震平静是大地震即将发生的标志

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世界地震译丛 2001年第1期32卷 1-4页

作者： S.Hainzl G.Zller j.kurths j.Zschau 郭贵安中国地震局驻深圳办事处

地震活动的断层系统有可能处于自组织临界(SOC)状态。对简单的自组织临界模型的研究说明,地震从本质上讲也许是不可预测的.本文中,我们使用更复杂、更切合实际的自组织临界模型分析了地震的可预测性问题。这个模型是由具有暂态蠕变特性... 详细信息

地震活动的断层系统有可能处于自组织临界(SOC)状态。对简单的自组织临界模型的研究说明,地震从本质上讲也许是不可预测的.本文中,我们使用更复杂、更切合实际的自组织临界模型分析了地震的可预测性问题。这个模型是由具有暂态蠕变特性的弹簧一滑块系统构成的。该模型除了能够再现地震大小的幂律分布外,还可再现前震和余震序列。所模拟的地震序列还表明,除了大地震之前在短临阶段地震活动性的迅速增强外,平均来说这些事件发生在中期时间尺度的地震活动性降低之后.这个时期的地震活动性降低越明显和持续时间越长,后续的主震震级也就越大。我们发现,地震活动平静期的检测有助于改进与时间无关的危险性评估工作。这种改进对最大目标地震的危险性估计最重要。

关键词：地震活动自组织临界系统地震序列模拟余震序列

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Error field penetration in j-TEXT tokamak based on two-fluid drift-MHD model

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Chinese Physics B 2024年第4期33卷 545-551页

作者：王文徐涛张仪 the j-TEXT team State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Technology International Joint Research Laboratory of Magnetic Confinement Fusion and Plasma PhysicsSchool of Electrical and Electronic EngineeringHuazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan 430074China

An externally generated resonant magnetic perturbation can induce complex non-ideal MHD responses in their resonant *** have studied the plasma responses using Fitzpatrick's improved two-fluid model and program *** calculated the error field penetration threshold for *** addition,we find that the island width increases slightly as the error field amplitude increases when the error field amplitude is below the critical penetration ***,the island width suddenly jumps to a large value because the shielding effect of the plasma against the error field disappears after the *** scanning the natural mode frequency,we find that the shielding effect of the plasma decreases as the natural mode frequency ***,we obtain the m/n=2/1 penetration threshold scaling on density and temperature.

关键词： plasma responses drift-MHD model error field penetration

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Probabilistic description of extreme oscillations and reliability analysis in rolling motion under stochastic excitation

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中国科学:技术科学英文版 2023年第9期66卷 2586-2596页

作者： ZHAO Dan LI YongGe XU Yong LIU Qi kurths jürgen School of Mathematics and Statistics Northwestern Polytechnical UniversityXi’an 710072China MOE Key Laboratory for Complexity Science in Aerospace Northwestern Polytechnical UniversityXi’an 710072China Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam 14412Germany Department of Physics Humboldt University BerlinBerlin 12489Germany

Large-amplitude rolling motions, also regarded as extreme oscillations, are a great threat to marine navigation, which may lead to capsizing in ship motion. Therefore, it is important to quantify extreme oscillations, assess reliability of ship systems, and establish a suitable indicator to characterize extreme oscillations in ship systems. In this work, extreme events are investigated in a ship model considering a complex ocean environment, described by a single-degree-of-freedom nonlinear system with stochastic harmonic excitation and colored Gaussian noise. The stationary probability density function(PDF) of the system is derived through a probabilistic decomposition-synthesis method. Based on this, we infer the classical damage rate of the system. Furthermore, a new indicator, independent of the PDF, is proposed to quantify the damage related only to the fourth-order moment of the system and the threshold for extreme events. It is more universal and easier to determine as compared with the classical damage rate. A large damping ratio, a large noise intensity, or a short correlation time can reduce the damage rate and the value of the *** findings provide new insights and theoretical guidance to avoid extreme oscillations and assess the reliability of practical ship movements.

关键词： rolling motion colored noise extreme oscillations reliability probabilistic decomposition-synthesis method

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Storing Freshwater Versus Storing Electricity in Power Systems with High Freshwater Electric Demand

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journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy 2024年第2期12卷 323-333页

作者： Mubarak j.Al-Mubarak Antonio j.Conejo Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering The Ohio State UniversityColumbusOHUSA Department of Electrical Engineering Kuwait UniversityP.O.Box 5969Safat 13060Kuwait Department of Integrated Systems Engineering and the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering The Ohio State UniversityColumbusOH 43210USA IEEE

We consider a power system whose electric demand pertaining to freshwater production is high(high freshwater electric demand),as in the Middle East,and investigate the tradeoff of storing freshwater in tanks versus storing electricity in batteries at the day-ahead operation *** storing freshwater and storing electricity increase the actual electric demand at valley hours and decrease it at peak hours,which is generally beneficial in term of cost and ***,to what extent?We analyze this question considering three power systems with different generation-mix configurations,i.e.,a thermal-dominated mix,a renewable-dominated one,and a fully renewable *** generation-mix configurations are inspired by how power systems may evolve in different countries in the Middle *** production uncertainty is compactly modeled using chance *** draw conclusions on how both storage facilities(freshwater and electricity)complement each other to render an optimal operation of the power system.

关键词： Power system operation freshwater production and transportation coordination day-ahead scheduling

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Analysis of ancient mass extinction recoveries in marine environments: generating strategies for managing outcomes of the current mass extinction

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National Science Review 2024年第1期11卷 8-10页

作者： David j.Bottjer Department of Earth Sciences University of Southern California

The defining feature of a mass extinction and its associated recovery is the global amount of extinction that occurred[1]. However, there is finer-scale detail to the story, as seen in the ongoing modern mass extinction(the sixth mass extinction), which exhibits variable effects among marine ecosystems and environments, and hence geographic areas [1].

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Global weirding at mass extinction horizons

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National Science Review 2024年第1期11卷 10-12页

作者： Gregory j.Retallack Department of Earth Sciences University of Oregon

A strong motivation for studying mass extinctions is understanding how current climatic and biodiversity crises will affect creatures living on land such as ourselves. Perhaps the question is: how bad can it get? In that case, terrestrial Permian-Triassic mass extinctions are an irresistible worst-case scenario [1].

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