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Mathematical modeling of the impact of temperature variations and immigration on malaria prevalence in Nigeria

International Journal of Biomathematics 2021年第8期14卷 215-252页

作者： Eunice E.Ukwajunor Eno E.E.Akarawak israel olutunji abiala Department of Mathematics University of LagosLagos StateNigeria

The study examines the population-level impact of temperature variability and immigration on malaria prevalence in Nigeria,using a novel deterministic *** model incorporates disease transmission by immigrants into the *** the absence of immigration,the model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward *** disease-free equilibrium of the autonomous version of the model was found to be locally asymptotically stable in the absence of infective ***,the model exhibits an endemic equilibrium point when the immigration parameter is greater than *** endemic equilibrium point is seen to be globally asymptotically stable in the absence of disease-induced *** and sensitivity analysis of the model,using parameter values and ranges relevant to malaria transmission dynamics in Nigeria,shows that the top three parameters that drive malaria prevalence(with respect to R_(0))are the mosquito natural death rate(μM),mosquito biting rate(bM)and the transmission rates between humans and mosquitoes(βH,βM).Numerical simulations of the model show that in Nigeria,malaria burden increases with increasing mean monthly temperature in the range of 22–28℃.Thus,this study suggests that control strategies for malaria should be intensified during this *** is further shown that the proportion of infective immigrants has marginal effect on the transmission dynamics of the ***,the simulations suggest that a reduction in the fraction of infective immigrants,either exposed or infectious,would significantly reduce the malaria incidence in a population.

关键词： Malaria immigration basic reproduction number temperature variability stability

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