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Quasi-periodic variations of low energy cosmic rays

Science China(Technological Sciences) 2016年第4期59卷 547-557页

作者： KUDELA Karel sabbah ismail IEP SAS Kosice Slovakia Department of Natural Sciences College of Health Sciencesthe Public Authority for Applied Education and TrainingKuwait

Cosmic rays(CR)play an important role in space weather-related *** temporal variability,both of a quasi-periodic character as well as an irregular one,has been studied from ground-based direct measurements,as well as from cosmogenic nuclides,over a long *** attempt to describe the current knowledge of selected quasi-periodicities in CR flux in the energy range above the atmospheric threshold,from direct *** power spectrum density(PSD)of the CR time series as measured by neutron monitors(NMs)and by muon detectors has a rather complicated *** with the shape(slope)of the PSD,knowledge of the contribution of quasi-periodic variations(q-per)to the CR signal is of importance for the modulation,as well as for checking the links of CR to space weather,and/or to space climate *** rotation of the Earth and solar rotation cause two types of mechanisms behind the certain q-per observed in secondary CR on the Earth’s *** activity and solar magnetic field cyclicities contribute to the q-per signals in CR if studied over a longer *** complexity of the spatial structure of the interplanetary magnetic field(IMF)and its evolution within the heliosphere,in addition to the changes in the geomagnetic field,cause variability in contributions of the q-per in *** spectra are useful tools for checking the fine structure of q-per and their temporal *** a long time NMs and muon telescopes provide information about q-per in CR.

关键词： cosmic rays periodicities neutron monitors muon detectors

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Modeling the Surface Ozone Concentration in Campo Grande (MS)—Brazil Using Neural Networks

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Natural Science 2015年第4期7卷 171-178页

作者： Amaury de Souza Flavio Aristone ismail sabbah Institute of Physics—Federal University of South Mato Grosso Campo Grande Brazil Department of Natural Sciences College of Health Sciences the Public Authority for Applied Education and Training Kuwait

The estimation of the surface ozone concentration promotes the creation of data useful for planning the air quality forecast, which is a key element for the management of public health. The aim of this study is to develop an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to estimate the concentration of surface ozone from daily climate data. ANN is an equivalent form of Feedforward Multilayer Perceptron whose data has been inserted from the daily concentration of measured ozone. In the intermediate and output layers activation functions like tan-sigmoid and linear have been used, respectively. The performance of the developed ANN is actually very good and it can be considered like part of the set of indirect methods to estimate the concentration of surface ozone. The proposed model may be used by governmental agencies as a tool to enable the public interventional actions during the period of atmospheric stagnation, when ozone levels in the atmosphere represent risks to the public health.

关键词： Neural Networks Climate Surface Ozone Public Health Air Quality

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Climatic Variations and Consumption of Urban Water

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2015年第3期5卷 292-301页

作者： Amaury de Souza Flavio Aristone ismail sabbah Debora A. da Silva Santos Ana Paola de Souza Lima Gabriela Lima Institute of Physics Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul Campo Grande Brazil Department of Natural Sciences College of Health Sciences The Public Authority for Applied Education and Training Kuwait Nursing Department Federal University of Mato Grosso Campus Rondonopolis Brazil

This study aims to develop a statistical modelling framework of urban water consumption forecast for the city of Aquidauana, Brazil from year 2005 to 2014, monthly data, using multiple linear regression, cluster analysis, and principal component analysis. These forecasts were based on historical data collected through SANESUL System (Water Systems of South Mato Grosso). The meteorological data were provided by the Water Resources Monitoring Center of South Mato Grosso—CEMTEC. The statistical model developed explains 71.5% of the variance with three factors: number of consumers (19.3%), seasonality (37.8%), and climate regression (14.3%). The model was further validated using an independent set of data from January 2005 to November 2014, with an R2 of 86% and error of 1.7%. The results indicated no intervention of climate variables in the phenomenon. This tool, combined with the perception of the potential and limitations of managers of water resources and public policy makers, can be used in the regulation of per capita consumption, and thereby achieve the optimization of available resources and also contribute to the sustainable perspective of water resources.

关键词： Water Planning Modeling Regulation

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