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Landslide risk perception and communication for disaster risk management in mountain areas of developing countries：a Mexican foretaste

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Journal of Mountain Science 2016年第12期13卷 2079-2093页

作者： irasema alcántara-ayala Ana Rosa MORENO Institute of Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico(UNAM)Ciudad UniversitariaCoyoaedn04510Mexico CityMexico Faculty of Medicine Department of Public HealthNational Autonormous University of Mexico(UNAM)Ciudad UniversitariaCoyoacan04510Mexico CityMexico

The increasing impact of disasters at local,national,regional and global scales in recent decades has provided enough evidence to urgently direct attention towards the necessity of disaster risk reduction and management,and this requires *** without communication is barren,and to communicate the risk of disaster it is necessary to understand the perception of the people at *** particular,this paper deals with the necessity to delineate strategies of risk communication in pursuance of risk knowledge as a core of disaster risk reduction and management,especially in mountain areas of developing *** portray this issue,an analysis of landslide risk perception in terms of experience,landslide risk awareness,exposure,preparedness,and risk communication and trust was undertaken in the municipality of Teziutlán,Puebla,Mexico,an area that has been affected for several decades by episodes of mass *** of the responses to a risk perception questionnaire has offered valuable insights in terms of the information and knowledge most required by the people living in the area of interest,in order to devise a realistic and functional strategy to communicate the risk of a landslide *** includes better understanding of controlling factorsand drivers of this risk,and the establishment of potential trusted sources of risk *** considering practical matters of risk assessment and management,risk perception and communication can increase the resilience of vulnerable people,and can enhance capacity building for present and future generations.

关键词： Risk perception Risk communication Landslides Disaster risk Mountain areas

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Early Warning Systems: Lost in Translation or Late by Definition? A FORIN Approach

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2019年第3期10卷 317-331页

作者： irasema alcántara-ayala Anthony Oliver-Smith Institute of Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico(UNAM)04510 Mexico CityMexico University of Florida GainesvilleFL 32611USA

Early warning systems(EWSs) are widely considered to be one of the most important mechanisms to prevent disasters around the globe. But as disasters continue to affect countries where EWSs have already been implemented, the striking disaster consequences have led us to reflect on the focus, architecture, and function of the warning systems. Since the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami there has been a rapid rise in the promotion and use of EWSs to minimize disaster losses and damage. However,few researchers have addressed the question of their acceptability as an adaptive measure to the existing exposure conditions. EWSs are far more linked to emergency response and humanitarian crises and accepted technological interventions as solutions than they are to explicitly advance integrated analysis, disaster risk reduction, and policy making. A major flaw of EWSs is that the term‘‘early’’ has been essentially used in reference to the speed of hazard onset, founded on a physicalist perspective that has encouraged a considerable dependence on *** this article we address the need for a clear understanding of the root causes and risk drivers of disaster risk creation,as advanced in the FORIN(forensic investigation of disasters) approach, as a prerequisite for the development of more articulated EWSs that could contribute to disaster risk reduction through policy making and practice, based on integrated and transdisciplinary management, in the interest of sustainable development, and human welfare and well-being.

关键词： Disaster risk drivers Disaster root causes Early warning systems Forensic disaster investigations FORIN

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Tropical Cyclones in Nicaragua:Historical Impact and Contemporary Exposure to Disaster Risk

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2024年第4期15卷 579-593页

作者： Gema Velásquez‑Espinoza irasema alcántara‑ayala Faculty of Sciences and Engineering National Autonomous University of Nicaragua14172 Unan-ManaguaNicaragua Postgraduate Programme in Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico(UNAM)04510 Mexico CityMexico Institute of Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico(UNAM)04510 Mexico CityMexico

In tropical regions such as Nicaragua, the population's vulnerability to hazards has escalated in recent decades. This increase in vulnerability has led to a surge in disasters, particularly those triggered by intense hurricanes. The implications at the national level are still poorly understood. The aim of this article has, therefore, been two-fold. First, to present a historical review of the direct effects of tropical cyclones on society in Nicaragua from 1852 to 2020. Second, to analyze the statistical probabilities of future hurricane-spawned high winds over Nicaragua. Data on cyclones hitting Nicaragua's coasts were collected, including direct effects, wind speed, pressure, category, direction, and time of landfall. A database was created to classify intensity based on wind speed and frequency. Between 1852 and 2020, Nicaragua experienced 58 tropical cyclones with varying degrees of intensity between September and November. The trajectories of six past hurricanes were considered here regarding the areas that might have been under potential threat. Three zones of influence were delimited along each trajectory according to three wind intensities and the trajectory of these hurricanes. The consequent exposure of each Nicaraguan department and autonomous region was established. The findings are essential to delimitating priority areas for attention regarding the likely impact of tropical cyclones, mainly category 4 and 5 hurricanes. Public officials and the general public can use these data to identify the pressing need for enhanced strategies to mitigate disaster risk and avoid potential disasters.

关键词： Exposure Historical impact Hurricanes Nicaragua Tropical cyclones Vulnerability

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The use of UAVs for landslide disaster risk research and disaster risk management: a literature review

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Journal of Mountain Science 2021年第2期18卷 482-498页

作者： Ricardo J.GARNICA-PEÑA irasema alcántara-ayala Institute of Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico(UNAM)Mexico City 04510Mexico

On a global scale,from 2005 to 2019,there were 275 high-magnitude,low-frequency disasters that involved 14,172 fatalities and four million affected *** patterns have taken place during longer periods of time in recent *** paper aims to analyse the contribution of the international landslide research community to disaster risk reduction and disaster risk management in reference to the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs)in a literature *** first section notes the relevance of disaster risk research contributions for the implementation of initiatives and strategies concerning disaster risk *** second section highlights background information and current applications of drones in the field of hazards and *** methodology,which included a systematic peer review of journals in the ISI Web of Science and SCOPUS,was presented in the third section,where the results include analyses of the considered *** study concludes that most current scholarly efforts remain rooted in hazards and post-disaster evaluation and *** landslide disaster risk research should be transdisciplinary in order to strengthen participation of the various relevant stakeholders in contributing to integrated disaster risk management at local,subnational,national,regional and global levels.

关键词： UAVs Landslides Disaster risk Landslide research Vulnerability Exposure Disaster risk management

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Landslide susceptibility: a statistically-based assessment on a depositional pyroclastic ramp

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Journal of Mountain Science 2019年第3期16卷 561-580页

作者： Franny G.MURILLO-GARCíA Stefan STEGER irasema alcántara-ayala Institute of Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) Institute for Earth Observation Eurac Research

This study aimed to produce a high-quality landslide susceptibility map for Teziutlán municipality, a landslide-prone region in Mexico, which is characterised by a depositional pyroclastic ramp. The heterogeneous quality of available topographic information(i.e. higher resolution digital elevation model only for a sub-region) encouraged to confront modelling results based on two different study area delineations and two raster resolutions. Input data was based on the larger modelling region L15(163 km2) and smaller S(70 km2; located inside L15) with an associated raster cell size of 15 m(region L15 and S15) and 5 m(region S5). The resulting three data sets(L15, S15 and S5) were included into three differently flexible modelling techniques(Generalized Linear Model-GLM, General Additive Model-GAM, Support Vector Machine-SVM) to produce nine landslide susceptibility models. Preceding variable selection was performed heuristically and supported by an exploratory data analysis. The final models were based on the explanatory variables slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, relative slope position, elevation, convergence index, distance to streams, distance to springs and topographic wetness index. The ability of the models to classify independent test data was elaborated using a k-fold cross validation procedure and the AUROC(Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic) metric. In general, all produced landslide susceptibility maps depicted the hillslopes of the ravines, which cut the pyroclastic ramp, as prone to landsliding. The modelling results showed that predictive performances(i.e. AUROC values) slightly increased with an increasing flexibility of the applied modelling technique. Thus, SVM performed best, while the GAM outperformed the GLM. This tendency was most distinctive when modelling with the largest landslide sample size(i.e. data set L15; n = 662 landslides). Non-linear classifiers(GAMs, SVMs) performed slightly better when trained on the basis of lower

关键词： Landslide susceptibility Pyroclastic ramp Logistic regression Generalized Additive Model Support Vector Machine Cross validation

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A Likert Scale-Based Model for Benchmarking Operational Capacity,Organizational Resilience,and Disaster Risk Reduction

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2020年第3期11卷 404-409页

作者： Gianluca Pescaroli Omar Velazquez irasema alcántara-ayala Carmine Galasso Patty Kostkova David Alexander Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction University College London(UCL)London WC1E 6BTUK Institute of Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico(UNAM)Mexico CityMexico Department of Civil Environmental and Geomatic EngineeringUniversity College London(UCL)London WC1E 6BTUK

Likert scales are a common methodological tool for data collection used in quantitative or mixed-method approaches in multiple *** are often employed in surveys or questionnaires,for benchmarking answers in the fields of disaster risk reduction,business continuity management,and organizational ***,both scholars and practitioners may lack a simple scale of reference to assure consistency across disciplinary *** article introduces a simple-to-use rating tool that can be used for benchmarking responses in questionnaires,for example,for assessing disaster risk reduction,gaps in operational capacity,and organizational *** aim,in particular,to support applications in contexts in which the target groups,due to cultural,social,or political reasons,may be unsuitable for in-depth analyses that use,for example,scales from 1 to 7 or from 1 to *** methodology is derived from the needs emerged in our recent fieldwork on interdisciplinary projects and from dialogue with the stakeholders *** output is a replicable scale from 0 to 3 presented in a table that includes category labels with qualitative attributes and descriptive equivalents to be used in the formulation of model *** include examples of levels of resilience,capacity,and *** are connected to other tools that could be used for in-depth *** advantage of our Likert scale-based response model is that it can be applied in a wide variety of disciplines,from social science to engineering.

关键词： Assessment Disaster risk reduction Interdisciplinary Likert scale Questionnaires Scales

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Hazard and population vulnerability analysis: a step towards landslide risk assessment

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Journal of Mountain Science 2017年第7期14卷 1241-1261页

作者： Franny G.MURILLO-GARCíA Mauro ROSSI Francesca ARDIZZONE Federica FIORUCCI irasema alcántara-ayala Postgraduate in Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) IRPI CNR Institute of Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM)

In this paper, an attempt to analyse landslide hazard and vulnerability in the municipality of Pahuatlfin, Puebla, Mexico, is presented. In order to estimate landslide hazard, the susceptibility, magnitude （area-velocity ratio） and landslide frequency of the area of interest were produced based on information derived from a geomorphological landslide inventory; the latter was generated by using very high resolution satellite stereo pairs along with information derived from other sources （Google Earth, aerial photographs and historical information）. Estimations of landslide susceptibility were determined by combining four statistical techniques：（i） logistic regression, （ii） quadratic discriminant analysis, （iii） linear discriminant analysis, and （iv） neuronal networks. A Digital Elevation Model （DEM） of lo m spatial resolution was used to extract the slope angle, aspect, curvature, elevation and relief. These factors, in addition to land cover, lithology anddistance to faults, were used as explanatory variables for the susceptibility models. Additionally, a Poisson model was used to estimate landslide temporal frequency, at the same time as landslide magnitude was obtained by using the relationship between landslide area and the velocity of movements. Then, due to the complexity of evaluating it, vulnerability of population was analysed by applying the Spatial Approach to Vulnerability Assessment （SAVE） model which considered levels of exposure, sensitivity and lack of resilience. Results were expressed on maps on which different spatial patterns of levels of landslide hazard and vulnerability were found for the inhabited areas. It is noteworthy that the lack of optimal methodologies to estimate and quantify vulnerability is more notorious than that of hazard assessments. Consequently, levels of uncertainty linked to landslide risk assessment remain a challenge to be addressed.

关键词： Landslides Susceptibility HazardVulnerability Risk

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Seismogenic fault and topography control on the spatial patterns of landslides triggered by the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake

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Journal of Mountain Science 2018年第4期15卷 793-807页

作者： WU Chun-hao CUI Peng LI Yu-sheng irasema alcántara ayala HUANG Chao YI Shu-jian Key Laboratory of Mountain Surface Process and Hazards Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Science Chengdu 610041 China University of Chinese Academy of Science Beijing 100049 China Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection Chengdu University of Technology Chengdu 610059 China Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Geografía Circuito Exterior s/n Ciudad Universitaria México D.F. Distrito Federal MX 04510

Jiuzhaigou National Park, located in northwest plateau of Sichuan Province, is a UNESCO World Heritage Site, and one of the most popular scenic areas in China. On August 8, 2017, a Mw 6.5 earthquake occurred 5 km to the west of a major scenic area, causing 25 deaths and injuring 525, and the Park was seriously affected. The objective of this study was to explore the controls of seismogenic fault and topographic factors on the spatial patterns of these landslides. Immediately after the main shock, field survey, remote-sensing investigations, and statistical and spatial analysis were undertaken. At least 2212 earthquake-triggered landslides were identified, covering a total area of 11.8 km^2. Thesewere mainly shallow landslides and rock falls. Results demonstrated that landslides exhibited a close spatial correlation with seismogenic faults. More than 85% of the landslides occurred at 2200 to 3700 m elevations. The largest quantity of landslides was recorded in places with local topographic reliefs ranging from 200 to 500 m. Slopes in the range of ~20°-50° are the most susceptible to failure. Landslides occurred mostly on slopes facing east-northeast(ENE), east(E), east-southeast(ESE), and southeast(SE), which were nearly vertical to the orientation of the seismogenic fault slip. The back-slope direction and thin ridge amplification effects were documented. These results provide insights on the control of the spatial pattern of earthquake-triggered landslides modified by the synergetic effect of seismogenic faults and topography.

关键词： 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake Landslide Seismogenic fault Topography Spatial pattern

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Multi-Sectoral Reflections and Efforts in Strengthening Partnerships to Reduce Disaster Risk in Mexico:The First MuSe-IDRiM Conference

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2020年第5期11卷 686-691页

作者： irasema alcantara-ayala Daniel Rodriguez-Velazquez Ricardo J Garnica-Pena Alejandra Maldonado-Martinez Institute of Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico(UNAM)04510 Mexico CityMexico National School of Social Work.National Autonomous University of Mexico(UNAM) 04510 Mexico CityMexico Disaster Risk Reduction Consultant 04700 Mexico CityMexico

Notwithstanding the high societal impact of disasters in Mexico,there is a lack of integrated efforts to establish a sound policy for reducing disaster risk to counterbalance the existing concentrated endeavors in disaster *** the face of such segmentation,the science and technology community has advocated for a change of perspective,from civil protection to integrated disaster risk *** first Multi-Sectoral Conference towards Integrated Disaster Risk Management in Mexico:Building a National Public Policy(MuSe-IDRiM Conference)was held in Mexico City at National Autonomous University of Mexico,21-24 October *** support of the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030,the conference aimed at enhancing the dialogue between the scienee and technology community,citizens,civil society organizations,private and public sectors,and the federtil,state,and municipal governments to foster the process of transforming the current National Civil Protection System into a national public policy oriented towards integrated disaster risk management(DRM).Barriers and challenges to the implementation of integrated DRM were *** of integrated DRM challenges current socioeconomic structures and encourages all releva nt stakeholders to think,decide,and act from a different perspective and within and across spatial,temporal,jurisdictional,and institutional *** disaster risk from an integrated approach,learning skills that authorities have not learned or used,and hence,strengthening disaster risk governance are prerequisites to effectively manage disaster risk.

关键词： Disaster risk reduction Integrated disaster risk management Mexico Science-based policy making SINAPROC

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The 4th World Landslide Forum: Landslide Research and Risk Reduction for Advancing the Culture of Living with Natural Hazards

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2017年第4期8卷 498-502页

作者： irasema alcntara-ayala Kyoji Sassa Matjaz Miko Quinli Han Jakob Rhyner Kaoru Takara Satoru Nishikawa Badaoui Rouhban Slvano Briceo Institute of Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) International Consortium on Landslides Kyoto University Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering University of Ljubljana International Consortium on Landslides IPL Global Promotion Committee Division of Ecological and Earth Sciences The United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO) United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) United Nations University Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI) Kyoto University Japan Center for Area Development Research International Programme on Landslides Science Committee Integrated Research on Disaster Risk(IRDR)

The World Landslide Forum is a triennial mainstream conference that gathers together the scientific and technological community, policymakers, industry actors, public officials, and other stakeholders, who deal with the understanding and management of landslide disaster risk. The establishment of the ISDR-ICL Sendai Partnerships 2015–2025 for Global Promotion of Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk in Sendai during the 2015 World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction(WCDRR) enabled the landslide science and technology community support the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 in order to prevent new and reduce existing disaster *** 4th World Landslide Forum(WLF4) was held in Ljubljana, Slovenia, from 29 May to 2 June 2017 and discussed the progress of landslide research and risk reduction for advancing the culture of living with natural hazards. A high-level panel composed of United Nations officials, international stakeholders, and national organizations sought to identify the best mechanisms to be developed by the community of the International Consortium on Landslides(ICL). The objective was to advance the implementation of the ISDR-ICL Sendai Partnerships,to achieve a better commitment among partners, and to provide substantive services to developing countries. During the WLF4, the 2017 Ljubljana Declaration on Landslide Risk Reduction was adopted and the concept framework of the Kyoto 2020 Commitment was endorsed.

关键词： Disaster risk reduction Kyoto Commitment Landslide risk assessment Ljubljana Declaration Sendai Partnerships

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