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China's Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN,Japan and Korea:A Comparative Analysis

China & World Economy 2012年第4期20卷 108-126页

作者： Gemma Estrada Donghyun park innwon park Soonchan park Economics and Research Department Asian Development Bank(ADB) Economics and Research Department ADB Division of International Studies Korea University Department of Economics and International Trade Kongju National University

The role of China in East Asia ＇s recovery from the recent global finaneial and economic crisis highlights China ＇s position as an engine of growth for this region. From the viewpoint of China, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements （FTAs） with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast-growing market. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of China＇s FTAs with East Asian major economies： China-ASEAN, China-Japan, China-Korea and ASEAN＋ 3. We compare the effects of these FTAs on China ＂s output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that China will gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from the ASEAN＋ 3. Because forming a region-wide FTA, such as the ASEAN＋ 3, is expected to be gradual and difficult, China shouM continue to engage in bilateral FTAs as a mediumterm and alternative strategy. However, in the long term, China should pursue a regionwide FTA.

关键词： ASEAN China computable general equilibrium model East Asia free trade agreement

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Prospects for ASEAN-China Free Trade Area:A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis

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China & World Economy 2009年第4期17卷 104-120页

作者： Donghyun park innwon park Gemma Esther B.Estrada Economic and Research Department Asian Development Bank Division of International Studies Korea University

The current global financial and economic crisis is giving new life to initiatives that promote closer economic integration among East Asian countries. A significant example is the ASEAN- China Free Trade Area （.4 CFTA）, which is set to come into effect around 2010..4CFTA aims to boost trade between two economies that are partners as well as competitors： ASEAN and China. In the present paper, we use insights from customs union theory in a qualitative analysis considering whether,4CFTA would benefit both sides. We also apply a computable general equilibrium model to perform a quantitative analysis of the same issue. Both our qualitative and quantitative analyses provide grounds for guarded optimism regarding A CFTA ＇s prospects as a vehicle for strengthening the economic partnership between ASEAN and China.

关键词： ASEAN China computable general equilibrium model economic integration free trade area

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