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Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks:COVID-19 as an example

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 409-441页

作者： Christopher E.Overton Helena B.Stage Shazaad Ahmad Jacob Curran-Sebastian Paul Dark Rajenki Das Elizabeth Fearon Timothy Felton Martyn Fyles Nick Gent ian hall Thomas House Hugo Lewkowicz Xiaoxi Pang Lorenzo Pellis Robert Sawko Andrew Ustianowski Bindu Vekaria Luke Webb Department of Mathematics University of ManchesterUK IBM Research Hartree CentreSciTech DaresburyUK Department of Global Health and Development London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineUK Emergency Response Department Public Health EnglandUK Division of Infection Immunity and Respiratory MedicineNIHR Biomedical Research CentreUniversity of ManchesterUK Department of Virology Manchester Medical Microbiology PartnershipManchester Foundation TrustUK Regional Infectious Diseases Unit North Manchester General HospitalUK School of Medical Sciences University of ManchesterUK Intensive Care Unit Wythenshawe HospitalManchester University NHS Foundation TrustUK Department of Health Sciences University of ManchesterUK Department of Mathematical Sciences University of LiverpoolUK The Alan Turing Institute UK Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre UK Critical Care Unit Salford Royal HospitalNorthern Care Alliance NHS GroupUK

During an infectious disease outbreak,biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing *** by the ongoing response to COVID-19,we provide a toolkit of statistical and mathematical models beyond the simple SIR-type differential equation models for analysing the early stages of an outbreak and assessing *** particular,we focus on parameter estimation in the presence of known biases in the data,and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions in enclosed subpopulations,such as households and care *** illustrate these methods by applying them to the COVID-19 pandemic.

关键词： COVID-19 Epidemic modelling Parameter estimation Outbreak Bias Intervention

Effects of symmetric and asymmetric salt conditions on a selective solid-state nanopore assay

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Nano Research 2022年第11期15卷 9936-9942页

作者： ian D.Wadsworth Adam R.hall Virginia Tech-Wake Forest University School of Biomedical Engineering and Sciences Wake Forest School of MedicineWinston-SalemNC 27101USA Comprehensive Cancer Center Wake Forest School of MedicineWinston-SalemNC 27157USA

Conventional solid-state nanopore measurements sense all translocating entities,necessitating meticulous analysis to differentiate target *** address this,we have established a selective assay with the platform that has shown utility in quantifying several nucleic acid ***,limited detection efficiency and intrinsic noise have so far limited assay resolution to 10 *** in this value require manipulation of translocation ***,we report the effects of NaCl conditions on assay *** first investigate symmetric conditions,finding sensitivity increases with salt concentration but selectivity is maximized at 1.0 M *** then probe asymmetric conditions,showing a remarkable impact on assay sensitivity and selectivity when measurement buffer NaCl concentration in the reservoir with the translocating molecules is low and the opposite reservoir is *** optimum conditions,we demonstrate detection of target biomolecules down to a concentration of 100 pM which is an improvement of 2 orders of magnitude over past results.

关键词： solid-state nanopores biomarkers amplification-free detection salt gradient nucleic acids

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国外企业可持续发展创新研究综述及展望

科技进步与对策 2012年第24期29卷 191-196页

作者：谢宗杰 Jeremy hall ian McCarthy 重庆大学建设管理与房地产学院重庆400044 Simon Fraser University Beedie School of BusinessCanada British Columbia V6C1W6

可持续发展创新作为企业赖以生存和发展的重要战略,在国外理论界和业界日益受到重视,而在我国还是较新的概念。为了对可持续发展创新有规范性的认识,基于可持续发展理念和创新理论,提出可持续发展创新要素具有相互依存和动态性的特点。... 详细信息

可持续发展创新作为企业赖以生存和发展的重要战略,在国外理论界和业界日益受到重视,而在我国还是较新的概念。为了对可持续发展创新有规范性的认识,基于可持续发展理念和创新理论,提出可持续发展创新要素具有相互依存和动态性的特点。在对国外企业可持续发展创新文献回顾的基础上,从复杂性理论、演化理论和权变理论角度,提出未来可持续发展创新理论的3个新视角:用满意观点权衡可持续发展创新要素;从搜寻角度探索可持续发展创新过程;从可持续发展知识的角度寻求创新根源。

关键词：可持续发展创新复杂性理论演化理论权变理论可持续发展知识

The Thermoelectric Properties of n-Type Bismuth Telluride:Bismuth Selenide Alloys Bi_(2)Te_(3−x)Se_(x)

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Research 2020年第1期2020卷 724-738页

作者： ian T.Witting Francesco Ricci Thomas C.Chasapis Geoffroy Hautier G.Jeffrey Snyder Department of Materials Science and Engineering Northwestern University2220 Campus DriveCook Hall 2036EvanstonIL 60208USA Institute of Condensed Matter and Nanosciences UniversitéCatholique de LouvainLouvain-la-Neuve 1348Belgium

Alloying bismuth telluride with antimony telluride and bismuth selenide for p-and n-type materials,respectively,improves the thermoelectric quality factor for use in room temperature *** the electronic and thermal transports can vary substantially,the alloy composition is a key engineering *** n-type Bi_(2)Te_(3-x)Se_(x)alloy lags its p-type counterpart in thermoelectric performance and does not lend itself as readily to simple transport modeling which complicates *** literature data with recent results across the entire alloy composition range,the complex electronic structure dynamics and trends in lattice thermal conductivity are ***-orbit interaction plays a critical role in determining the position and degeneracy of the various conduction band *** behavior is incorporated into a two-band effective mass model to estimate the transport parameters in each *** alloy scattering model is utilized to demonstrate how phonon scattering behaves differently on either side of the intermediate ordered compound Bi2Te2Se due to chalcogen site occupancy *** parametrization of the electronic and thermal transports presented can be used in future optimization efforts.

关键词： alloy bismuth transport

Thermoelectric transport enhancement of Te-rich bismuth antimony telluride(Bi_(0.5)Sb_(1.5)Te_(3+x))through controlled porosity

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Journal of Materiomics 2020年第3期6卷 532-544页

作者： ian T.Witting Jann A.Grovogui Vinayak P.Dravid G.Jeffrey Snyder Department of Materials Science and Engineering Northwestern University2220 Campus DriveCook Hall 2036EvanstonIL60208USA

Alloys of Bi_(2)Te_(3) and Sb_(2)Te_(3) are the best performing p-type thermoelectrics near room temperature and have been the subject of extensive engineering *** improvement is achieved by introducing defects that effectively scatter phonons and reduce thermal ***,outstanding results are often difficult to reproduce as the process variables involved are difficult to control or possibly ***,a reproducible and controllable method of fabricating porous Bi_(0.5)Sb_(1.5)Te_(3+x) is *** effective medium theory(EMT)predicts no benefit,improvements in the thermoelectric quality factor,B(which determines the maximum zT of a materials),were as high as 45% parallel to the pressing direction for a sample of roughly 20% *** study of microstructural evolution with increasing porosity is facilitated by a combination of Scanning/Transmission Electron Microscopy(S/TEM)and Electron Backscattered Diffraction(EBSD).This study reveals a statistically significant shift in the distribution of grain boundaries favoring lower energy twins,which coincides with an increase in the presence of stepped twin *** work demonstrates the potential benefits of careful grain boundary engineering and the need for further detailed studies of the dependence of thermal and electrical transport on grain boundary structure and orientation in these alloys.

关键词： Bismuth antimony telluride Thermoelectric Porosity Transport modeling Foaming

International trade and the natural resource 'curse' in Southeast Asia:does China's growth threaten regional development?

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International trade and the natural resource 'curse' in Sout...

Cross-scale modeling of surface temperature and tree seedling establishment in mountain landscapes

北京论坛（2005）文明的和谐与共同繁荣——全球化视野中亚洲的机遇与发展

作者： ian Coxhead Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Wisconsin-Madison 413 Taylor hall 427 Lorch St MadisonWI 53706USA

Due to China’s rapid growth and integration with global markets,Southeast Asia’s resource- abundant economies are losing comparative advantage in labor-intensive manufacturing and gaining it in natural *** former poses a threat to future industrial *** latter will generate short-run export windfalls but may not be *** are the implications for long-run growth and welfare,particularly in the poorest economies,and especially in light of decentralization,which has reduced resource management capacity? Rapid resource depletion and reduced industrial growth could expose countries to a period of slow economic growth,as predicted in the"natural resource curse"hypothesis.

关键词： resource curse trade industrialization decentralization Indonesia Vietnam

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Ecological Processes 2013年第1期2卷 313-327页

作者： John R Dingman Lynn C Sweet ian McCullough Frank W Davis Alan Flint Janet Franklin Lorraine E Flint Earth Research Institute University of California Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraCA 93106USA U.S.Geological Survey California Water Science CenterSacramentoCA 95819USA Bren School of Environmental Science&Management University of California Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraCA93106USA School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning Arizona State UniversityTempeAZ85287USA

Introduction:Estimating surface temperature from above-ground field measurements is important for understanding the complex landscape patterns of plant seedling survival and establishment,processes which occur at heights of only several ***,future climate models predict temperature at 2 m above ground,leaving ground-surface microclimate not well ***:Using a network of field temperature sensors and climate models,a ground-surface temperature method was used to estimate microclimate variability of minimum and maximum *** lapse rates were derived from field temperature sensors and distributed across the landscape capturing differences in solar radiation and cold air drainages modeled at a 30-m spatial ***:The surface temperature estimation method used for this analysis successfully estimated minimum surface temperatures on north-facing,south-facing,valley,and ridgeline topographic settings,and when compared to measured temperatures yielded an R2 of 0.88,0.80,0.88,and 0.80,*** surface temperatures generally had slightly more spatial variability than minimum surface temperatures,resulting in R2 values of 0.86,0.77,0.72,and 0.79 for north-facing,south-facing,valley,and ridgeline topographic ***-Poisson regressions predicting recruitment of Quercus kelloggii(black oak)seedlings from temperature variables were significantly improved using these estimates of surface temperature compared to air temperature modeled at 2 ***:Predicting minimum and maximum ground-surface temperatures using a downscaled climate model coupled with temperature lapse rates estimated from field measurements provides a method for modeling temperature effects on plant *** methods could be applied to improve projections of species’range shifts under climate *** of complex topography can provide intricate microclimates that may allow species to redistribute locally as climate

关键词： Black oak Climate change Generalized linear models Microclimate Topography Spatial scale Surface temperature

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福尔摩斯探案全集续集 5

福尔摩斯探案全集续集 5

2001年

作者：（英）约翰·霍尔（John hall）（英）伊安·查诺克（ian Charnock）叶勤等译

本书包括小说《电话谋杀案》(《The Telephone Murder Mystery》)、《福尔摩斯的旅行》(《The Travels of Sherlock Holmes》)、《福尔摩斯的早期案例》(《The Elementary Cases of Sherlock Holmes》)3篇。

关键词：侦探小说(地点: 英国年代: 现代) 侦探小说

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对动物实验进行系统评价的必要性(英文)

中国循证医学杂志 2005年第1期5卷 3-5页

作者： Pandora Pound ian Roberts 黄进杜亮 Department of Social Medicine University of Bristol Canynge Hall Whiteladies Road Bristol BS8 2PR London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Keppel Street London WC1E 7HT

Over the last ten to fifteen years, systematic reviews have become accepted as the best means of objectively synthesising and appraising research findings within a defined field. The methodology provides a powerful tool, capable of systematically assessing the quality of evidence in a particular field and identifying where evidence may be either sufficient or lacking.

关键词：系统评价动物实验证据质量治疗效果评价 Meta分析假阴性结果发现必要性手段准确性