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Projections of the transmission of the Omicron variant for Toronto,Ontario,and Canada using surveillance data following recent changes in testing policies

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第2期7卷 83-93页

作者： Pei Yuan Elena Aruffo Yi Tan Liu Yang Nicholas HOgden Aamir Fazil huaiping zhu Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems(LAMPS) Centre for Diseases ModellingDepartment of Mathematics and StatisticsYork UniversityTorontoONCanada Public Health Agency of Canada(PHAC) OttawaONCanada

At the end of 2021,with the rapid escalation of COVID19 cases due to the Omicron variant,testing centers in Canada were overwhelmed.To alleviate the pressure on the PCR testing capacity,many provinces implemented new strategies that promote self testing and adjust the eligibility for PCR tests,making the count of new cases underreported.We designed a novel compartmental model which captures the new testing guidelines,social behaviours,booster vaccines campaign and features of the newest variant Omicron.To better describe the testing eligibility,we considered the population divided into high risk and non-highrisk settings.The model is calibrated using data from January 1 to February 9,2022,on cases and severe outcomes in Canada,the province of Ontario and City of Toronto.We conduct analyses on the impact of PCR testing capacity,self testing,different levels of reopening and vaccination coverage on cases and severe outcomes.Our results show that the total number of cases in Canada,Ontario and Toronto are 2.34(95%CI:1.22e3.38),2.20(95%CI:1.15e3.72),and 1.97(95%CI:1.13e3.41),times larger than reported cases,respectively.The current testing strategy is efficient if partial restrictions,such as limited capacity in public spaces,are implemented.Allowing more people to have access to PCR reduces the daily cases and severe outcomes;however,if PCR test capacity is insufficient,then it is important to promote self testing.Also,we found that reopening to a pre-pandemic level will lead to a resurgence of the infections,peaking in late March or April 2022.Vaccination and adherence to isolation protocols are important supports to the testing policies to mitigate any possible spread of the virus.

关键词： PCR testing Self-testing Booster dose Social behavior Mathematical model COVID-19 Omicron Exit strategy

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Dynamic modeling and optimal control of cystic echinococcosis

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2021年第2期10卷 25-37页

作者： Xinmiao Rong Meng Fan huaiping zhu Yaohui Zheng College of Mathematical Sciences Harbin Engineering University145 Nantong StreetHarbinHeilongjiang 150001People's Republic of China School of Mathematics and Statistics Northeast Normal University5268 Renmin StreetChangchunJilin 130024People's Republic of China CDM LAMPS and Department o f Mathematics and StatisticsYork University4700 Keele StreetTorontoON M 3 J1P3Canada Animal Health Supervision Institute of Xingan League Tiexi North RoadUlanhotInner Mongolia 137400People's Republic of China

Background:Cystic echinococcosis is one of the most severe helminth zoonosis with a drastic impact on human health and livestock industry.Investigating optimal control strategy and assessing the crucial factors are essential for developing countermeasures to mitigate this disease.Methods:Two compartment models were formulated to study the dynamics of cystic echinococcosis transmission,to evaluate the effectiveness of various control measures,and to find the optimal control strategy.Sensitive analyses were conducted by obtaining PRCCs and contour plot was used to evaluate the effect of key parameters on the basic reproduction number.Based on forward-backward sweep method,numerical simulations were employed to investigate effects of key factors on the transmission of cystic echinococcosis and to obtain the optimal control strategy.Results:The food resources of stray dog and invalid sheep vaccination rate,which are always neglected,were significant to the transmission and control of cystic echinococcosis.Numerical simulations suggest that,the implementation of optimal control strategy can significantly reduce the infections.Improving the cost of health education and domestic dog deworming could not decrease human infections.Conclusions:Our study showed that only a long-term use of the optimal control measures can eliminate the disease.Meanwhile,during the intervention,sheep vaccination and stray dogs disposing should be emphasized ahead of domestic dogs deworming to minimize the control cost.Simultaneously reducing other wild intermediate hosts and strengthening the sheep vaccination as well as disposing the stray dogs would be most effective.

关键词： Cystic echinococcosis Dynamic modeling Optimal control Global stability Sheep vaccination

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Recursive Zero-COVID model and quantitation of control efforts of the Omicron epidemic in Jilin province

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第1期8卷 11-26页

作者： Xinmiao Rong Huidi Chu Liu Yang Shaosi Tan Chao Yang Pei Yuan Yi Tan Linhua Zhou Yawen Liu Qing Zhen Shishen Wang Meng Fan huaiping zhu Harbin Engineering University Harbin150001China Northeast Normal University Changchun130024China York University TorontoCanada Jilin University Changchun130021China Changchun Center for Disease Control and Prevention Changchun130033China Changchun University of Science and Technology Changchun130013China

Since the beginning of March 2022,the epidemic due to the Omicron variant has developed rapidly in Jilin Province.To figure out the key controlling factors and validate the model to show the success of the Zero-COVID policy in the province,we constructed a Recursive Zero-COVID Model quantifying the strength of the control measures,and defined the control reproduction number as an index for describing the intensity of interventions.Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis were employed to estimate and validate the impact of changes in the strength of different measures on the intensity of public health preventions qualitatively and quantitatively.The recursive Zero-COVID model predicted that the dates of elimination of cases at the community level of Changchun and Jilin Cities to be on April 8 and April 17,respectively,which are consistent with the real situation.Our results showed that the strict implementation of control measures and adherence of the public are crucial for controlling the epidemic.It is also essential to strengthen the control intensity even at the final stage to avoid the rebound of the epidemic.In addition,the control reproduction number we defined in the paper is a novel index to measure the intensity of the prevention and control measures of public health.

关键词： Omicron variant Recursive Zero-COVID Model Elimination of cases at the community level Basic reproduction number Control reproduction number Quantitation of control efforts

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When and How to Adjust Non-Pharmacological Interventions Concurrent with Booster Vaccinations Against COVID-19—Guangdong,China,2022

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China CDC weekly 2022年第10期4卷 199-206,I0002-I0012页

作者： Guanhao He Fangfang Zeng Jianpeng Xiao Jianguo Zhao Tao Liu Jianxiong Hu Sicong Zhang Ziqiang Lin huaiping zhu Dan Liu Min Kang Haojie Zhong Yan Li Limei Sun Yuwei Yang Zhixing Li Zuhua Rong Weilin Zeng Xing Li Zhihua zhu Xiaofeng Liang Wenjun Ma Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Guangzhou CityGuangdong ProvinceChina Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine School of MedicineJinan UniversityGuangzhou CityGuangdong ProvinceChina Disease Control and Prevention Institute Jinan UniversityGuangzhou CityGuangdong ProvinceChina Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and PreventionGuangzhou CityGuangdong ProvinceChina BNU-HKBU United International College Zhuhai CityGuangdong ProvinceChina Department of Psychiatry School of MedicineNew York UniversityNew York CityNew YorkUnites States Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems(LAMPS) Department of Mathematics and StatisticsYork UniversityToronto CityOntarioCanada Jinan University-BioKangtai Vaccine Institute Jinan UniversityGuangzhou CityGuangdong ProvinceChina

Introduction:With the large-scale roll-out of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)booster vaccination effort(a vaccine dose given 6 months after completing primary vaccination)in China,we explore when and how China could lift non-pharmacological interventions(NPIs)against COVID-19 in 2022.Methods:Using a modified susceptible-infectiousrecovered(SIR)mathematical model,we projected the COVID-19 epidemic situation and required medical resources in Guangdong Province,China.Results:If the number of people entering from overseas recovers to 20%of the number in 2019,the epidemic in 2022 could be controlled at a low level by a containment(215 local cases)or suppression strategy(1,397 local cases).A mitigation strategy would lead to 21,722 local cases.A coexistence strategy would lead to a large epidemic with 6,850,083 local cases that would overwhelm Guangdong’s medical system.With 50%or 100%recovery of the 2019 level of travelers from overseas,the epidemic could also be controlled with containment or suppression,but enormous resources,including more hotel rooms for border quarantine,will be required.However,coexistence would lead to an uncontrollable epidemic with 12,922,032 local cases.Discussion:With booster vaccinations,the number of travelers from overseas could increase slightly in 2022,but a suppression strategy would need to be maintained to ensure a controllable epidemic.

关键词： maintained Guangdong overseas

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The transmission of dengue virus with Aedes aegypti mosquito in a heterogeneous environment

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International Journal of Biomathematics 2021年第5期14卷 31-49页

作者： Mengyun Zhang Zhigui Lin huaiping zhu School of Applied Mathematics Nanjing University of Finance&EconomicsNanjing 210003P.R.China School of Mathematical Science Yangzhou University Yangzhou 225002P.R.China Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems(LAMPS)Department of Mathematics and Statistics York University TorontoONM3J 1P3Canada

This paper deals with dengue virus transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti.A reaction-diffusion model is proposed incorporating both human and the A.aegypti population,where we divided mosquitoes into two sub-populations:the winged population and an aquatic form,with the winged mosquito population divided into the susceptible and infected classes.The threshold Qo depending on spatial heterogeneity is introduced for the mosquito population.Moreover,we introduce the basic reproduction number Rq for the infected classes,as well as its analytical properties.Qo and Ho are utilized to investigate the stability of the mosquito-established equilibriums.Our results show that the mosquitoes persist if Qo>1,while the transmission of dengue virus depends on the condition whether Ho1.

关键词： Reaction-diffusion model dengue virus Aedes aegypti mosquito basic reproduction number stability

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Analysis of a stochastic model for algal bloom with nutrient recycling

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International Journal of Biomathematics 2016年第6期9卷 59-85页

作者： Xuehui Ji Sanling Yuan huaiping zhu School of ManagementUniversity of Shanghai for Science and Technology Shanghai 200093 P. R. China College of ScienceUniversity of Shanghai for Science and Technology Shanghai 200093 P. R. China Department of Mathematics and StatisticsYork University Toronto M3J 1P3 Canada

In this paper, the dynamics of a stochastic model for algal bloom with nutrient recycling is investigated. The model incorporates a white noise term in the growth equation of algae population to describe the effects of random fluctuations in the environment, and a nutrient recycling term in the nutrient equation to account for the conversion of detritus into nutrient. The existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution of the model is first proved. Then we study the long-time behavior of the model. Conditions for the extinction and persistence in the mean of the algae population are established. By using the theory of integral Markov semigroups, we show that the model has an invariant and asymptotically stable density. Numerical simulations illustrate our theoretical results.

关键词：模型分析随机模型营养循环水华种群增长方程养分循环正解的存在性藻类种群

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Activation of AMPKα1 is essential for regulatory T cell function and autoimmune liver disease prevention

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Cellular & Molecular Immunology 2021年第12期18卷 2609-2617页

作者： huaiping zhu Zhaoyu Li Junqing An Miao Zhang Yu Qiu Ming-Hui Zou The First Affiliated Hospital of USTC Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Blood Research and ApplicationsDivision of Life Sciences and MedicineUniversity of Science and Technology of ChinaHefeiAnhui230001P.R.China Center for Molecular and Translational Medicine Georgia State UniversityAtlantaGA30303USA Medical Research Center Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Malignant Tumor Epigenetics and Gene RegulationSun Yat-sen Memorial HospitalSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouGuangdong510120P.R.China Department of Medicine University of Oklahoma Health Sciences CenterOklahoma CityOK73117USA

Regulatory T cells(Treg cells)are crucial for maintaining immune tolerance.Compromising the regulatory function of Treg cells can lead to autoimmune liver disease.However,how Treg cell function is regulated has not been fully clarified.Here,we report that mice with AMP-activated protein kinase alpha 1(AMPKα1)globally knocked out spontaneously develop immune-mediated liver injury,with massive lymphocyte infiltration in the liver,elevated serum alanine aminotransferase levels,and greater production of autoantibodies.Both transplantation of wild-type bone marrow and adoptive transfer of wild-type Treg cells can prevent liver injury in AMPKα1-KO mice.In addition,Treg cell-specific AMPKα1-KO mice display histological features similar to those associated with autoimmune liver disease,greater production of autoantibodies,and hyperactivation of CD4^(+)T cells.AMPKα1 deficiency significantly impairs Treg cell suppressive function but does not affect Treg cell differentiation or proliferation.Furthermore,AMPK is activated upon T cell receptor(TCR)stimulation,which triggers Foxp3 phosphorylation,suppressing Foxp3 ubiquitination and proteasomal degradation.Importantly,the frequency of Treg cells and the phosphorylation levels of AMPK at T172 in circulating blood are significantly lower in patients with autoimmune liver diseases.Conclusion:Our data suggest that AMPK maintains the immunosuppressive function of Treg cells and confers protection against autoimmune liver disease.

关键词： AMPK Treg cells autoimmune liver diseases Foxp3

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MODELING THE SCHISTOSOMIASIS ON THE ISLETS IN NANJING

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International Journal of Biomathematics 2012年第4期5卷 189-205页

作者： LONGXING QI JING-AN CUI YUAN GAO huaiping zhu School of Mathematical Sciences Anhui University Hefei 230601 P. R. China College of Science Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture Beijing 100044 P. R. China Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention Nanjing 210003 P. R. China Department of Mathematics and Statistics Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems and Centre for Disease Modeling York University Toronto ON Canada M3J 1P3

A compartmental model is established for schistosomiasis infection in Qianzhou and Zimuzhou, two islets in the center of Yangtzi River near Nanjing, P. R. China. The model consists of five differential equations about the susceptible and infected subpopulations of mammalian Rattus norvegicus and Oncomelania snails . We calculate the basic reproductive number R 0 and discuss the global stability of the disease free equilibrium and the unique endemic equilibrium when it exists. The dynamics of the model can be characterized in terms of the basic reproductive number. The parameters in the model are estimated based on the data from the field study of the Nanjing Institute of Parasitic Diseases. Our analysis shows that in a natural isolated area where schistosomiasis is endemic, killing snails is more effective than killing Rattus norvegicus for the control of schistosomiasis.

关键词：血吸虫病南京段房室模型建模胰岛地方病平衡点长江三角洲无病平衡点

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Assessing the mechanism of citywide test-trace-isolate Zero-COVID policy and exit strategy of COVID-19 pandemic

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2022年第5期11卷 97-98页

作者： Pei Yuan Yi Tan Liu Yang Elena Arufo Nicholas H.Ogden Guojing Yang Haixia Lu Zhigui Lin Weichuan Lin Wenjun Ma Meng Fan Kaifa Wang Jianhe Shen Tianmu Chen huaiping zhu Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems(LAMPS) Department of Mathematics and StatisticsYork University4700 Keele StreetTorontoON M3J1P3Canada Key Laboratory of Tropical Translational Medicine of Ministry of Education and School of Tropical Medicine and Laboratory Medicine The First Afliated Hospital of Hainan Medical UniversityHainan Medical UniversityHaikouHainanChina 不详

Background:Countries that aimed for eliminating the cases of COVID-19 with test-trace-isolate policy are found to have lower infections,deaths,and better economic performance,compared with those that opted for other mitigation strategies.However,the continuous evolution of new strains has raised the question of whether COVID-19 eradication is still possible given the limited public health response capacity and fatigue of the epidemic.We aim to investigate the mechanism of the Zero-COVID policy on outbreak containment,and to explore the possibility of eradication of Omicron transmission using the citywide test-trace-isolate(CTTI)strategy.Methods:We develop a compartmental model incorporating the CTTI Zero-COVID policy to understand how it contributes to the SARS-CoV-2 elimination.We employ our model to mimic the Delta outbreak in Fujian Province,China,from September 10 to October 9,2021,and the Omicron outbreak in Jilin Province,China for the period from March 1 to April 1,2022.Projections and sensitivity analyses were conducted using dynamical system and Latin Hypercube Sampling/Partial Rank Correlation Coefcient(PRCC).Results:Calibration results of the model estimate the Fujian Delta outbreak can end in 30(95%confdence interval CI:28–33)days,after 10(95%CI:9–11)rounds of citywide testing.The emerging Jilin Omicron outbreak may achieve zero COVID cases in 50(95%CI:41–57)days if supported with sufcient public health resources and population compliance,which shows the efectiveness of the CTTI Zero-COVID policy.Conclusions:The CTTI policy shows the capacity for the eradication of the Delta outbreaks and also the Omicron outbreaks.Nonetheless,the implementation of radical CTTI is challenging,which requires routine monitoring for early detection,adequate testing capacity,efcient contact tracing,and high isolation compliance,which constrain its benefts in regions with limited resources.Moreover,these challenges become even more acute in the face of more contagious variants with a high proportion of asymptomatic cases.H

关键词： COVID-19 Transmission model Zero-COVID policy Citywide testing Test-trace-isolate Exit strategy

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胃食管反流患者应用富马酸伏诺拉生片与雷贝拉唑肠溶胶囊的疗效及药物经济学评价

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河北医药 2024年第2期46卷 264-266页

作者：朱怀平刘守珠王健刘娜山东省东营市东营区人民医院消化内科 257000

目的探讨富马酸伏诺拉生片与雷贝拉唑肠溶胶囊治疗胃食管反流的效果及药物经济学情况。方法选取2018年2月至2021年10月进行胃食管反流症治疗的2000例患者,等分法将患者分为对照组和研究组,每组1000例。对照组采用雷贝拉唑肠溶胶囊治疗,... 详细信息

目的探讨富马酸伏诺拉生片与雷贝拉唑肠溶胶囊治疗胃食管反流的效果及药物经济学情况。方法选取2018年2月至2021年10月进行胃食管反流症治疗的2000例患者,等分法将患者分为对照组和研究组,每组1000例。对照组采用雷贝拉唑肠溶胶囊治疗,研究组采用富马酸伏诺拉生片治疗。比较2组患者胃食管反流治疗效果、基础酸排出量及不良反应发生率,2组成本-效果比等指标。结果研究组患者治疗有效率显著高于对照组(P<0.05);研究组基础酸排出量显著小于对照组(P<0.05);研究组临床症状包括反流、腹痛、反酸、嗳气消失时间较对照组短(P<0.05),研究组不良反应发生率显著小于对照组(P<0.05);雷贝拉唑肠溶胶囊的经济性高于富马酸伏诺拉生片。结论富马酸伏诺拉生片在治疗胃食管反流中的疗效、基础酸排出量及不良反应发生率等方面的效果均优异于雷贝拉唑肠溶胶囊,但根据药物经济学成本-效果分析显示雷贝拉唑肠溶胶囊的药物经济学价值更高。

关键词：富马酸伏诺拉生片雷贝拉唑肠溶胶囊胃食管反流药物经济学

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