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MJO对我国降水影响的季节调制和动力-统计降尺度预测

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气象 2018年第6期44卷 737-751页

作者：吴捷任宏利许小峰高丽南京信息工程大学大气科学学院南京210044 中国气象局国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室中国气象局-南京大学气候预测研究联合实验室北京100081 中国地质大学环境学院大气科学系武汉430074 中国气象局北京100081 中国气象局数值预报中心北京100081

利用1981—2016年中国区域CN05.1格点降水资料和EAR-Interim再分析资料,研究了季节循环对于热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)对我国降水影响的调制作用,并基于模式对MJO的预报建立了针对延伸期降水的动力-统计降尺度模型。结果表明,MJO对我国季... 详细信息

利用1981—2016年中国区域CN05.1格点降水资料和EAR-Interim再分析资料,研究了季节循环对于热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)对我国降水影响的调制作用,并基于模式对MJO的预报建立了针对延伸期降水的动力-统计降尺度模型。结果表明,MJO对我国季节内降水异常的影响明显受到季节循环的调制。当MJO对流在热带印度洋活跃时,我国降水偏多的区域随季节由南向北推进;当MJO对流位于海洋性大陆地区时,在秋、冬季我国东部和高原大部分地区降水异常偏少,而到了春、夏季该关系反转。MJO对流和基本气流(特别是副热带西风急流)的位置和强度的变化所引起热带外环流响应的不同是造成这种季节性差异的重要原因。模式检验表明,BCC_AGCM2.2对目标候MJO的预报技巧可达18d以上,在此基础上利用模式预报MJO信息构建了随季节演变滚动的MJO动力-统计降尺度预测模型。独立样本检验表明,该模型在较长时效(10~20d)下对MJO高影响区低频降水异常的预报技巧高于模式的直接预报,特别是在MJO活跃时期对降水预报技巧的提升更加明显,这为MJO信号释用提供了新的思路。

关键词： MJO 季节调制 BCC二代大气环流模式(BCC_AGCM2.2) 动力-统计降尺度模型延伸期预报

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近百年来ENSO强度的变化特征

气候变化研究进展 2017年第1期13卷 1-10页

作者：史珩瑜张祖强任宏利南京信息工程大学南京210044 中国气象局国家气候中心北京100081

利用美国NOAA提供的月平均海表温度资料和英国Hadley中心提供的全球逐月海温格点资料,研究了1900—2015年间厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象(ENSO)的强度变化。结果发现,1900—2015年中ENSO事件强度发生了明显变化:20世纪初期至50年代ENSO强度为... 详细信息

利用美国NOAA提供的月平均海表温度资料和英国Hadley中心提供的全球逐月海温格点资料,研究了1900—2015年间厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象(ENSO)的强度变化。结果发现,1900—2015年中ENSO事件强度发生了明显变化:20世纪初期至50年代ENSO强度为近百年来最弱时期,而从50年代以后其强度显著增强,特别是70年代至90年代末期ENSO强度达到近百年来最强,但在2000年以后其强度又有所减弱。进一步分析表明,在20世纪20—50年代的强度偏弱期,ENSO空间型的南北宽度为近百年来最窄,伴随着最大海温异常中心位置偏西;相比之下,在20世纪70年代以来的强度偏强期,ENSO空间型的南北宽度达到最宽,对应着最大海温异常中心位置偏东,而2000年以后的情形有向相反方向发展的趋势。

关键词：近百年 ENSO 强度变化

Extreme Temperature Change of the Last 110 Years in Changchun,Northeast china

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第4期37卷 347-358,I0002-I0006页

作者： Xiujing YU Guoyu ren Panfeng ZHANG Jingbiao HU Ning LIU Jianping LI Chenchen ZHANG Jilin climate Center Changchun 130062China Department of Atmospheric Science School of Environmental StudiesChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China laboratory for climate studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Jilin Province Weather Modification Office Changchun 130062China Institute of meteorological Sciences of Jilin Province Changchun 130062China

In china and East Asia,the long-term continuous observational data at daily resolution are insufficient,and thus there is a lack of good understanding of the extreme climate variation over the last 100 years *** this study,the extreme temperature indices defined by ETCCDI(Expert Team on climate Change Detection and Indices)and local {3. administrations were analyzed for Changchun City,Northeast china,by using the daily maximum temperature(Tmax)and daily minimum temperature(Tmin)over 1909?*** results showed that extreme cold events,such as cold days,cold nights,frost days,icing days,and low temperature days,decreased significantly at rates of?0.41 d(10 yr)^?1,?1.45 d(10 yr)^?1,?2.28 d(10 yr)^?1,?1.16 d(10 yr)?1 and?1.90 d(10 yr)^?1,*** nights increased significantly at a rate of 1.71 d(10 yr)^?1,but warm days decreased slightly and the number of high temperature days decreased at a rate of?0.20 d(10 yr)?*** frequency of cold surge events increased significantly at a rate of 0.25 d(10 yr)^?1,occurring mainly from the mid-1950s to *** average Tmax,average Tmin and extreme Tmin increased at rates of 0.09℃(10 yr)^?1,0.3.℃(10 yr)^?1 and 0.54℃(10 yr)^?1,respectively;and extreme Tmax decreased significantly at a rate of?0.17℃(10 yr)^?*** 1909?2018,1951?2018 and 1979?2018,the indices related to cold events decreased,while the trends of the indices related to warm events were different for different periods.

关键词： extreme temperature climate change long-term series observation Changchun Northeast china

基于NCEP-GEFS回算资料的我国极端温度变化特征研究

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大气科学学报 2019年第1期42卷 58-67页

作者：高丽任宏利郑嘉雯陈权亮国家气象中心中国气象局数值预报中心北京100081 国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室北京100081 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室四川成都610225

利用美国NCEP全球集合预报系统(GEFS)历史回算资料和中国均一化格点观测数据,分析了我国近3. a来极端温度变化特征,重点考察了该模式预报系统对这一变化特征的刻画性能。通过估算格点观测和模式资料中2 m温度的历史气候百分位,分析了我... 详细信息

利用美国NCEP全球集合预报系统(GEFS)历史回算资料和中国均一化格点观测数据,分析了我国近3. a来极端温度变化特征,重点考察了该模式预报系统对这一变化特征的刻画性能。通过估算格点观测和模式资料中2 m温度的历史气候百分位,分析了我国冬夏两季极端温度的气候特征以及极端温度日数的气候分布和多年变化趋势。结果表明,我国冬季极端低温和夏季极端高温的空间分布表现出较强区域性特征:东北、华北和青藏高原区域冬季极端低温的百分位阈值对应的温度较低,而华南、西北和长江流域夏季极端高温的阈值温度则较高;近3. a来我国夏季平均温度和极端高温日数几乎都呈现上升趋势,冬季平均温度则在我国大部分区域呈上升趋势、西北和东北部分地区呈下降趋势,相应地冬季极端低温日数在大部分区域呈下降趋势、仅在西北、东北和华南部分地区略有上升。NCEP-GEFS回算资料能较好地再现我国冬夏两季平均气温、冬季极端低温和夏季极端高温日数的气候趋势和年际变化,但在各区域都有不同程度的冷偏差,冬季偏差明显大于夏季,并随着预报时长的增加,冬季冷偏差逐渐增强,而夏季冷偏差则逐渐减弱。因此,本文建议采用基于百分位阈值的相对极端性定义,可自动修正模式分析场和预报场中的系统性偏差。

关键词： NCEP-GEFS 集合预报极端温度回报变化特征

A research progress review on regional extreme events

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Advances in climate Change Research 2018年第3期9卷 161-169页

作者： ren Fu-Min Blair TREWIN Manola BRUNET Pattanaik DUSHMANTA Andreas WALTER Omar BADDOUR Maya KORBER State Key laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne VIC 3001 Australia Centre for climate Change Department of Geography University Rovira i Virgili Tarragona 43007 Spain Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ UK India meteorological Department New Delhi 110003 India German meteorological Service (DWD) Offenbach 63067 Germany World meteorological Organization Geneva 1211 Switzerland

An extreme （weather and climate） event does not only mean that an extreme occurs at a location, but more generally it can impact a certainarea and last a certain period of time, which is defined as a regional extreme event （REE） with a certain impacted area and duration. The conceptof REE has been defined to allow mainly objective assessment of the events without a pre-determined boundary and duration. This paper reviewsthe studies on REEs published during the past 20 years, especially recent years. Mainly in view of methodology, these studies can be divided intothree types studies focusing on spatial simultaneity, studies focusing on temporal persistence, and studies identifying REEs. The methodsidentifying REEs include two kinds, e.g., type-I methods stressing REE＇s temporal persistence within a relatively certain area and type-IImethods focusing on catching a complete REE. Identification methods proposed in this paper could provide valuable information for variouspurposes, such as real-time monitoring, estimating long-term changes, mechanism diagnosis, forecasting study and even attribution *** on REEs is important for objectively defining extreme weather and climate events, which depends on the spatial and temporal scales ofinterest. Such an objective definition will support ongoing climate monitoring and improve the assessment of how regional extreme events havechanged over time.

关键词： Extreme (weather and climate) events Regional extreme events Research progress Review

Representation and Predictability of the East Asia-Pacific Teleconnection in the beijing climate Center and UK Met Office Subseasonal Prediction Systems

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Journal of meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 941-964页

作者： Jie WU Peiqun ZHANG Lei LI Hong-Li ren Xiangwen LIU Adam A.SCAIFE Shuai ZHANG laboratory far climate studies&{3.-Nanjing University Joint laboratory for climate Prediction studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EXI 3PBUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterDevon EX44QFUK Secretariat of Jiangxi meteorological Society Nanchang 330096China Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China

Based on the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis, the East Asia–Pacific(EAP) teleconnection is extracted as the leading mode of the subseasonal variability over East Asia in summer, with a meridional tripole structure and significant periods of 10–3. and 50–70 days. A two-dimensional phase–space diagram is established for the EAP index and its time tendency so as to monitor the real-time state of EAP events. Based on the phase composite analysis, the general circulation anomalies first occur over the high-latitude area of Europe centered near Novaya Zemlya at the beginning of EAP events. These general circulation anomalies then influence rainfall over Northeast china,North china, and the region south of the Yangtze River valley(YRV) as the phases of EAP event progress. The representation, predictability, and prediction skill of the EAP teleconnection are examined in the two fully coupled subseasonal prediction systems of the beijing {3. Center(BCC) and UK Met Office(UKMO GloSea5). Both models are able to simulate the EAP meridional tripole over East Asia as the leading mode and its characteristics of evolution as well, except for the weaker precursors over Novaya Zemlya and an inconspicuous influence on precipitation over Northeast china. The actual prediction skill of the EAP teleconnection during May–September(MJJAS) is about 10 days in the BCC model and 15 days in the UKMO model based on correlation measures, but is higher when initialized from the EAP peak phases or when targeted on strong EAP scenarios. However, both of the ensemble prediction systems are under-dispersive and the predictable signals extend to 18 and 3. days in BCC and UKMO models based on signal-to-error metrics, indicating that there may be further scope for enhancing the capability of these models for the EAP teleconnection prediction and the associated impacts studies.

关键词： East Asia–Pacific(EAP)teleconnection subseasonal phase–space diagram prediction skill predictability

中国南方夏季降水的年代际变率主模态特征及机理研究

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大气科学 2018年第4期42卷 859-876页

作者：李维京刘景鹏任宏利左金清中国气象科学研究院北京100081 中国科学院大学北京100049 中国气象局国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室北京100081

在气候变暖背景下,中国南方夏季降水存在明显的年代际变化特征。本文利用1920~2014年的逐月降水,以分析南方夏季降水年代际变率主模态为切入点,以研究南方夏季降水年代际变率空间分布型的年代际变化特征为重点,进一步研究了印度洋、北... 详细信息

在气候变暖背景下,中国南方夏季降水存在明显的年代际变化特征。本文利用1920~2014年的逐月降水,以分析南方夏季降水年代际变率主模态为切入点,以研究南方夏季降水年代际变率空间分布型的年代际变化特征为重点,进一步研究了印度洋、北太平洋及北大西洋海温的年代际变率对南方夏季降水主模态年代际变率的可能影响机制。得到的主要结论包括:(1)指出中国南方夏季降水年代际变率的两个主模态为全区一致型和东西反相型降水模态。两个主导模态在1971/1972年发生了显著的年代际转变,在1925~1971年的第一主模态为东西反相型降水;在1972~2009年的第一主模态为一致型降水。不同主模态对应的海温异常关键区也在1971/1972年发生了相应的年代际变化。(2)揭示了全区一致型和东西反相型降水模态对应的环流场异常特征。一致多(少)型降水对应着中国南海及西北太平洋低空的反气旋(气旋)性异常,有(不)利于水汽自南海向南方地区输送。而贝加尔湖东侧低空的反气旋(气旋)性异常,有(不)利于冷空气向南方输送,并与来自南海地区的水汽在南方地区辐合,有利于南方地区降水一致偏多(少)。东多西少(西多东少)型降水对应着中国东南地区高空的正(负)异常中心,有利于高空辐散(辐合)及异常的上升(下沉)运动,其与南方地区东部低空的气旋(反气旋)性异常共同作用,有利于东部降水偏多(偏少)。与此同时,低空中南半岛反气旋(气旋)性异常及菲律宾地区反气旋(气旋)性异常,不(有)利于水汽自孟加拉湾及南海地区输送向南方地区西部,有利于形成东多西少(西多东少)的降水型。(3.揭示了印度洋海温、北太平洋海温和北大西洋海温协同影响南方地区东西反相型降水和一致型降水的机制。

关键词：中国南方夏季降水海温年代际变率主模态影响机制

Predictability and Risk of Extreme Winter PM_(2.5)Concentration in beijing

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Journal of meteorological Research 2023年第5期37卷 632-642页

作者： Jingpeng LIU Adam A.SCAIFE Nick DUNSTONE Hong-Li ren Doug SMITH Steven CHARDIMAN Bo WU china meteorological administration Key laboratory for climate Prediction {3. National Climate CentreChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX13PBUnited Kingdom College of Engineering Mathematicsand Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeter EX44QGUnited Kingdom State Key laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Air pollution remains a serious environmental and social problem in many big cities in the *** to predict and estimate the risk of extreme air pollution is unsettled *** study tries to provide a solution to this challenge by examining the winter PM_(2.5)concentration in beijing based on the UNprecedented Simulation of Extremes with ENsembles(UNSEEN)*** PM_(2.5)concentration observations in beijing,Japanese 55-yr reanalysis data,and the Met Office near term climate prediction system(DePreSys3.)large ensemble simulations are used,and 10,000proxy series are generated with the model fidelity *** is found that in beijing,the main meteorological driver of PM_(2.5)concentration is monthly 850-hPa meridional wind(V850).Although the skill in prediction of V850 is low on seasonal and longer timescales,based on the UNSEEN,we use large ensemble of initialized climate simulations of V850 to estimate the current chance and risk of unprecedented PM_(2.5)concentration in *** unravel that there is a 3.(2.1%–3.9%)chance of unprecedented low monthly V850 corresponding to high PM_(2.5)in each winter,within the 95%range,calculated by bootstrap resampling of the ***,we use the relationship between air quality and winds to remove the meridional wind influence from the observed record,and find that anthropogenic intervention appears to have reduced the risk of extreme PM_(2.5)in beijing in recent years.

关键词： UNprecedented Simulation of Extremes with ENsembles(UNSEEN) climate risk PM_(2.5) beijing

影响2018年汛期气候的先兆信号及预测效果评估

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气象 2019年第4期45卷 553-564页

作者：陈丽娟顾薇龚振淞任宏利国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室北京100081 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心南京210044

准确预测了2018年我国汛期降水"南北多,中间少,旱涝并重"的总体布局,尤其是准确预测了黄河流域降水异常偏多,而长江流域降水异常偏少的特征;对2018年东部地区季节内雨季进程前晚后早和夏季全国大部气温正常到偏高的预测也与实况一致;对... 详细信息

准确预测了2018年我国汛期降水"南北多,中间少,旱涝并重"的总体布局,尤其是准确预测了黄河流域降水异常偏多,而长江流域降水异常偏少的特征;对2018年东部地区季节内雨季进程前晚后早和夏季全国大部气温正常到偏高的预测也与实况一致;对西北太平洋和南海热带气旋生成和登陆我国的数量偏多、西北行和北上为主的移动路径、活跃程度前强后弱的预测与实况吻合。2018年汛期气候预测重点分析了冬季达到盛期的拉尼娜事件及其衰减后热带印度洋海温偏低有利于东亚夏季风偏强的机理,还参考了国内外动力气候模式预测西太平洋副热带高压脊线偏北、菲律宾为气旋式异常环流的结果。对先兆信号影响的诊断分析以及动力模式的结果均预测东亚夏季风明显偏强,西太平洋副热带高压偏北,因此拉尼娜事件和印度洋海温对其滞后响应的偏冷特征是有利于预测汛期长江中下游地区降水明显偏少、北方地区降水偏多的重要先兆信号。

关键词：拉尼娜事件东亚夏季风西太平洋副热带高压夏季降水评估