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Navigating Mark.t Choices: Understanding Carrot Mark.t Outlet Selection among Smallholder Farmers in k.nya

Agricultural Sciences 2024年第6期15卷 676-703页

作者： hillar. k.protich Ngeno Ngenoh Evans Oscar Ayuya Ingasia hillar. k. bett State Department for Crop Development and Agricultural Research Ministry of Agriculture Livestock Fisheries and Cooperatives Nairobi Kenya Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Management Egerton University Egerton Kenya Brook.yn Economic Consulting Limited Nairobi Kenya

This research delves into the hurdles and strategies aimed at augmenting the mark.t involvement of smallholder carrot farmers in Nak.ru County, k.nya. Employing a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, it scrutinizes the factors influencing the selection of mark.ting outlets among carrot farmers. The findings unveil that a significant majority (81%) of surveyed farmers actively participate in diverse mark.t outlets, encompassing the farm gate, cleaning point, local mark.t, external mark.t, and export mark.t. Notably, pivotal buyers include aggregators, brok.rs, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers, with transactions predominantly occurring at the farm level. Additionally, the analysis discerns substantial influences of socio-economic characteristics, experiential factors, and geographical proximity on farmers’ choices of mark.t outlets. Specifically, gender, age, land size, farming experience, and distance to mark.ts emerge as critical determinants. Moreover, the study delves into the examination of mark.t margins along the carrot value chain, shedding light on the potential profitability of carrot farming in the region. Remark.bly, higher average gross margins are identified in export and external mark.ts, signaling lucrative prospects for farmers targeting these segments. However, disparities in profit distribution between farmers and traders underscore the necessity for interventions to ensure equitable value distribution throughout the value chain. These findings underscore the imperative for tailored interventions to tack.e challenges and foster inclusive agricultural development. Strategies such as farmer organizations, contracting, and vertical integration are advocated to enhance mark.t access and profitability for smallholder carrot farmers. Thus, this study enriches our comprehension of the dynamics within carrot value chains and provides valuable insights for policymak.rs and development practitioners aiming to uplift rural livelihoods and bolster food security.

关键词： Mark.t Outlet Selection Smallholder Farmers Multinomial Logit Model Determinants Carrot Value Chain

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Sk.lful Forecasts of Summer Rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin from November

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 2082-2091页

作者： Philip E.bett Nick.DUNSTONE Nicola GOLDING Doug SMITH Chaofan LI Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)brings the risk.of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin,with potentially devastating *** forecasts of the lik.lihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-mak.rs,supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across eastern *** paper demonstrates that the EASM is predictable in a dynamical forecast model from the preceding November,and that this allows sk.lful forecasts of summer mean rainfall in the Yangtze River basin at a lead time of six *** sk.ll for May–June–July rainfall is of a similar magnitude to seasonal forecasts initialised in spring,although the sk.ll in June–July–August is much weak.r and not consistently ***,there is some evidence for enhanced sk.ll following El Niño *** potential for decadal-scale variability in forecast sk.ll is also examined,although we find no evidence for significant variation.

关键词： seasonal forecasting interannual forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall East Asian summer monsoon

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Estimating farmers’stated willingness to accept pay for ecosystem services:case of Lak. Naivasha watershed Payment for Ecosystem Services scheme-k.nya

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Ecological Processes 2016年第1期5卷 180-194页

作者： J.M.Nyongesa H.k.bett J.k.Lagat O.I.Ayuya Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Management Egerton UniversityP.O.Box 53620115 Egerton-NjoroKenya

Introduction:Lak. Naivasha watershed is recognized for its contribution to k.nya’s national gross domestic product from the export of horticultural *** horticultural investment downstream depends mainly on the Lak.’s *** fresh water lak. lack. surface outflow,and its recharge depends on river Malewa flowing from upper catchment in Aberdare ***,unsustainable land use practices in the upper catchment has led to increasing sediment loading and pollution in river Malewa which affects water quality in the Lak. *** for Environmental Services(PES)scheme has been initiated as an alternative incentive approach to motivate upstream smallholder farmers adopt sustainable land use practices for conservation of watershed *** paper analyzes willingness to accept pay(WTA)as proxy economic measure of environmental service(ES)value and determines socio-economic factors influencing farmers WTA for watershed *** analyzed the WTA and characterized WTA underlying socio-economic determinants in two PES intervention sites in ***:The objective of this study was to estimate WTA and determine socio-economic factors influencing ***-structured questionnaire was used to collect data from 200 PES farmers through face-to-face *** applied contingent valuation(CV)and logistic regression for data analyses to elicit farmer’s WTA estimates to implement PES farm practices and determine socio-economic factors influencing WTA,***:Results revealed over 90% of respondents were farmers and 60% had primary level of *** household farm size was 2.305 acres and family size was six members on *** recorded a monthly marginal household increase in gross income from k.hs.6891.969(US$68.92)before PES to k.hs.11,011.48(US$110.12)with PES *** estimated annual lowest and highest WTA for PES farm practices were at k.hs.8835(US$88.35)for grass strip and k.hs.21,847.500(US$218.48

关键词： Conservation Ecosystem services Livelihoods Payment for Ecosystem Services Practice Watershed Willingness to accept pay

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Sk.llful Seasonal Forecasts of Summer Surface Air Temperature in Western China by Global Seasonal Forecast System Version 5

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第8期35卷 59-68页

作者： Chaofan LI Riyu LU Philip E. bett Adam A. SCAIFE Nicola MARTIN Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China State k.y Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB UK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences University of Exeter Exeter Devon EX4 4QF UK

Variations of surface air temperature （SAT） are k.y in affecting the hydrological cycle, ecosystems and agriculture in western China in summer. This study assesses the seasonal forecast sk.ll and reliability of SAT in western China, using the GloSea5 operational forecast system from the Uk.Met Office. Useful predictions are demonstrated, with considerable sk.ll over most regions of western China. The temporal correlation coefficients of SAT between model predictions and observations axe larger than 0.6, in both northwestern China and the Tibetan Plateau. There are two important sources of sk.ll for these predictions in western China： interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific and the SST trend in the tropical Pacific. The tropical SST change in the recent two decades, with a warming in the western Pacific and cooling in the eastern Pacific, which is reproduced well by the forecast system, provides a large contribution to the sk.ll of SAT in northwestern China. Additionally, the interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific gives rise to the reliable prediction of SAT around the Tibetan Plateau. It modulates convection around the Maritime Continent and further modulates the variation of SAT on the Tibetan Plateau via the surrounding circulation. This process is evident irrespective of detrending both in observations and the model predictions, and acts as a source of sk.ll in predictions for the Tibetan Plateau. The predictability and reliability demonstrated in this study is potentially useful for climate services providing early warning of extreme climate events and could imply useful economic benefits.

关键词： seasonal forecast western China surface air temperature predictability warming trend

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Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第1期37卷 29-41页

作者： Gill M.MARTIN Nick.J.DUNSTONE Adam A.SCAIFE Philip E.bett Met Office Exeter

We demonstrate that there is significant sk.ll in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in *** of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain *** find that similar sk.ll exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index(EASMI)on monthly time scales,and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional ***,there appears to be little to be gained from using the predicted EASMI as a proxy for regional rainfall on monthly time scales compared with predicting the rainfall *** interannual variability of the June mean rainfall is affected by synoptic and intraseasonal variations,which may be inherently unpredictable on the seasonal forecasting time scale,the major influence of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures from the preceding winter on the June mean rainfall is captured by the model through their influence on the western North Pacific subtropical *** ability to predict the June mean rainfall in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin at a lead time of up to 4 months suggests the potential for providing early information to contingency planners on the availability of water during the summer season.

关键词： forecast sk.ll EASMI monthly mean rainfall East Asian summer monsoon Yangtze River basin

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Coping with Shock. and Determinants among Indigenous Vegetable Smallholder Farmers in k.nya

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Agricultural Sciences 2018年第7期9卷 804-823页

作者： Evans Ngenoh Sindu W. k.bede hillar. k. bett Wolfgang Bok.lmann Department of Agricultural Economics Humboldt University of Berlin Berlin Germany Department of Agricultural Economics and Business Management Egerton University Nakuru Kenya

Farm households in developing countries are faced with various challenges one of which is occurrence of unexpected negative events namely shock.. Shock. could be caused by extreme adverse natural events (droughts, storms, flood, and landslides) and mark.t-related events (fuel, food, input and output price fluctuations, volatilities and price hik.s). Most of these shock. affect production systems, food mark.ts and local economies, all of which have direct effects on food security. This study explores the prevalence of shock. among indigenous vegetable farmers in k.nya followed by an assessment of the type of coping strategies in response to these shock.. We find that over two thirds of farmers have coping strategies that are not based on mark.t-related insurance mechanisms;rather they use strategies such as work.ng for more hours and selling assets. We analyze which socioeconomic and institutional factors determine households’ decision and extent of coping with shock.. The results showed that access to high-value mark.ts and mark.t information were the major factors informing their decision and extent of using coping strategies along with access to critical services such as credit, extension, and farmer groups. This has significant policy implications regarding the dissemination of information and promotion of credit mark.ts through mobile phone-based platforms for easy accessibility in remote rural areas. Social capital should be encouraged because it acts as a necessary and sufficient conduit for information dissemination and mutual support to help farmers’ access critical services and resources needed for successful and sustainable implementation of relevant and appropriate coping strategies.

关键词： Shock. Coping Strategies Household Welfare Smallholders k.nya

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The Amazon Anthropology

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Journal of Philosophy Study 2017年第9期7卷 477-484页

作者： Geneci bett FBN College

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Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2212-2220,I0013页

作者： Philip E.bett Gill M.MARTIN Nick.DUNSTONE Adam A.SCAIFE Hazel E.THORNTON Chaofan LI Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterEX44QFUK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June,May–June–July(MJJ),and June–July–August(JJA)2020 are presented,based on the Met Office GloSea5 *** three-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)index,which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear *** June rainfall forecasts for the middle/lower Yangtze River basin are based on linear regression of *** forecasts verify well in terms of giving strong,consistent predictions of above-average rainfall at lead times of at least three ***,the Yangtze region was subject to exceptionally heavy rainfall throughout the summer period,leading to observed values that lie outside the 95%prediction intervals of the three-month *** forecasts presented here are consistent with other studies of the 2020 EASM rainfall,whereby the enhanced mei-yu front in early summer is sk.llfully forecast,but the impact of midlatitude drivers enhancing the rainfall in later summer is not *** case study demonstrates both the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Yangtze region and the potential limitations in anticipating complex extreme events driven by a combination of coincident factors.

关键词： seasonal forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall East Asian Summer Monsoon

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Moving interdisciplinary science forward:integrating participatory modelling with mathematical modelling of zoonotic disease in Africa

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2016年第1期5卷 149-160页

作者： Catherine Grant Giovanni Lo Iacono Vupenyu Dzingirai Bernard bett Thomas R.A.Winnebah Peter M.Atk.nson ESRC Social Technological and Environmental Pathways to Sustainability(STEPS)CentreInstitute of Development StudiesLibrary RoadFalmerBrightonUK Geography and Environment University of SouthamptonHighfieldSouthampton SO171BJUK Lancaster University LancasterUK University of Utrecht UtrechtUK Queen’s University Belfast BelfastUK Department of Veterinary Medicine Disease Dynamics UnitUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK Centre for Applied Social Sciences Trust 5 Aberdeen RoadP O Box A1333AvondaleHarareZimbabwe International Livestock.Research Institute Naivasha RoadKabeteNairobiKenya Institute of Geography and Development Studies School of Environmental SciencesNjala University17Henry StreetFreetownSierra Leone

This review outlines the benefits of using multiple approaches to improve model design and facilitate multidisciplinary research into infectious diseases,as well as showing and proposing practical examples of effective *** look. particularly at the benefits of using participatory research in conjunction with traditional modelling methods to potentially improve disease research,control and *** approaches can lead to more realistic mathematical models which in turn can assist with mak.ng policy decisions that reduce disease and benefit local *** emergence,risk.spread and control of diseases are affected by many complex bio-physical,environmental and socio-economic *** include climate and environmental change,land-use variation,changes in population and people’s *** evidence base for this scoping review comes from the work.of a consortium,with the aim of integrating modelling approaches traditionally used in epidemiological,ecological and development research.A total of five examples of the impacts of participatory research on the choice of model structure are *** 1 focused on using participatory research as a tool to structure a *** 2 look. at identifying the most relevant parameters of the *** 3 concentrates on identifying the most relevant regime of the system(e.g.,temporal stability or otherwise),Example 4 examines the feedback. from mathematical models to guide participatory research and Example 5 goes beyond the so-far described two-way interplay between participatory and mathematical approaches to look.at the integration of multiple methods and *** scoping review describes examples of best practice in the use of participatory methods,illustrating their potential to overcome disciplinary hurdles and promote multidisciplinary collaboration,with the aim of mak.ng models and their predictions more useful for decision-mak.ng and policy formulation.

关键词： Africa Zoonoses Modelling Interdisciplinary One health Participatory Disease

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Verification of the 2019 GloSea5 Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecast for East China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 917-925页

作者： Joanne CAMP Philip E.bett Nicola GOLDING Chris D.HEWITT Timothy D.MITCHELL Adam A.SCAIFE Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX 13PBUK University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterDevon EX44QFUK

A prototype climate service was developed and trialled in early 2019 to provide seasonal forecast of the June–July–August(JJA) tropical cyclone(TC) landfall risk.for the East China region ahead of the forthcoming typhoon *** forecasts were produced in both March and April 2019 and a final forecast was released to the China Meteorological Administration(CMA) on 1 May 2019. The trial service was produced by using the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system(GloSea5), and a forecast of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) index was used to infer the TC landfall risk.based on a simple linear regression between historical model WPSH indices and observed TC landfalls in East China. The forecast method shows significant sk.ll for forecasting the JJA TC landfall risk.in East China with up to three-month lead time, with the greatest sk.ll for predictions initialized in May. The 2019 forecast provided good guidance of the near-average TC activity observed in East China in JJA 2019. Success of the forecast adds confidence to an improved climate service ahead of the 2020 typhoon season.

关键词： seasonal forecasting typhoons tropical cyclones(TCs) landfall risk East China western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)

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