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Impact of Antecedent Soil Moisture Anomalies over the Indo-China Peninsula on the Super Meiyu Event in 2020

Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第2期37卷 234-247页

作者： Yinshuo Dong Haishan CHEN Xuan Dong Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044

In the summer of 2020,a super Meiyu event occurred in the Yangtze River basin(YRB),causing enormous economic losses and human casualties.Recent studies have investigated the possible causes of this super Meiyu event from the perspective of anomalous atmospheric circulation activities and sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies;however,the influence of land surface processes has not garnered considerable attention.This study investigates the possible contributions of land surface processes to this extreme event based on observational analysis and numerical simulations,and shows that antecedent soil moisture(SM)anomalies over the Indo-China Peninsula(ICP)may have had a vital influence on the super Meiyu in 2020.Negative SM anomalies in May over the ICP increased the surface temperature and sensible heat flux.The“memory”of soil allowed the anomalies to persist into the Meiyu period.The heating of the lower atmosphere by the surface strengthened the western Pacific subtropical high,which caused an anomalous anticyclone from the ICP to Northwest Pacific and thus enhanced the southwesterly winds and vertical motion over the YRB.Consequently,the water vapor flux and convergence were strengthened.Sensitivity experiments based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model further confirmed the results of observational analysis and indicated that the warm air heated by the ICP surface significantly warmed the lower troposphere from the ICP to Northwest Pacific under the influence of the background wind,thus increasing the geopotential height and inducing an anticyclone.The results of the sensitivity experiments showed that the SM anomalies in May over the ICP increased the precipitation by 10.6%from June to July over the YRB.These findings can improve our understanding of the mechanism of the super Meiyu event in 2020 and facilitate the prediction of extreme Meiyu events.

关键词： super Meiyu soil moisture Indo-China Peninsula surface heating

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Urban Impact on Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Precipitation:A Numerical Study of Typhoon Rumbia(2018)

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第6期40卷 988-1004页

作者： Xinguan DU Haishan CHEN Qingqing LI Xuyang GE KLME/ILCEC/CIC-FEMD Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Coastal urban areas are prone to serious disasters caused by landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs). Despite the crucial role of urban forcing in precipitation, how fine-scale urban features impact landfalling TC precipitation remains poorly understood. In this study, high-resolution ensemble simulations of Typhoon Rumbia(2018), which crossed the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, were conducted to analyze the potential urban impact on TC precipitation. Results show that the inner-core rainfall of Rumbia is strengthened by approximately 10% due to the urban impact near the landfall,whereas minor differences in outer-core rainfall are found when the urban impact is excluded. Further diagnostic analyses indicate that low-level upward motion is crucial for precipitation evolution, as both co-vary during landfall. Moreover, the frictionally induced upward motion plays a decisive role in enhancing the rainfall when the urban impacts are included.Urban surface friction can decelerate the tangential wind and therefore destroy the gradient balance and strengthen the radial wind within the boundary layer and thus can enhance upward motion. This study demonstrates that urban surface friction and related physical processes make the most significant contribution to landfalling TC rainfall enhancement.

关键词： landfalling tropical cyclone urban agglomeration quantitative diagnosis rainfall physical mechanisms surface friction

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Seasonal Prediction of Extreme High-Temperature Days in Southwestern China Based on the Physical Precursors

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第7期40卷 1212-1224页

作者： Zhiyi ZHOU Juan LI Haishan CHEN Zhiwei ZHU Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100086China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Extreme high temperatures frequently occur in southwestern China,significantly impacting the local ecological system and economic development.However,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days(EHDs)in this region is still an unresolved challenge.Based on the spatiotemporal characteristics of EHDs over China,a domain-averaged EHD index over southwestern China(SWC-EHDs)during April-May is defined.The simultaneous dynamic and thermodynamic fields associated with the increased SWC-EHDs are a local upper-level anticyclonic(high-pressure)anomaly and wavy geopotential height anomaly patterns over Eurasia.In tracing the origins of the lower boundary anomalies,two physically meaningful precursors are detected for SWC-EHDs.They are the tripolar SST change tendency from December-January to February-March in the northern Atlantic and the February-March mean snow depth in central Asia.Using these two selected predictors,a physics-based empirical model prediction was applied to the training period of 1961–2005 to obtain a skillful prediction of the EHDs index,attaining a correlation coefficient of 0.76 in the independent prediction period(2006–19),suggesting that 58%of the total SWC-EHDs variability is predictable.This study provides an estimate for the lower bound of the seasonal predictability of EHDs as well as for the hydrological drought over southwestern China.

关键词： extreme high-temperature days southwestern China seasonal prediction predictability

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Hybrid Methods for Computing the Streamfunction and Velocity Potential for Complex Flow Fields over Mesoscale Domains

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第9期39卷 1417-1431页

作者： Jie CAO Qin XU Haishan CHEN Shuping MA Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster(KLME) Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies(CIMMS) University of OklahomaNorman 73072OklahomaUSA NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory Norman 73069OklahomaUSA Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Three types of previously used numerical methods are revisited for computing the streamfunctionψand velocity potentialχfrom the horizontal velocity v in limited domains.The first type,called the SOR-based method,uses a classical successive over-relaxation(SOR)scheme to computeψ(orχ)first with an arbitrary boundary condition(BC)and thenχ(orψ)with the BC derived from v.The second type,called the spectral method,uses spectral formulations to construct the inner part of(ψ,χ)-the inversion of(vorticity,divergence)with a homogeneous BC,and then the remaining harmonic part of(ψ,χ)with BCs from v.The third type,called the integral method,uses integral formulas to compute the internally induced(ψ,χ)-the inversion of domain-internal(vorticity,divergence)using the free-space Greenꞌs function without BCs and then the remaining harmonicψ(orχ)with BCs from v minus the internally-induced part.Although these methods have previously been successfully applied to flows in large-scale and synoptic-scale domains,their accuracy is compromised when applied to complex flows over mesoscale domains,as shown in this paper.To resolve this problem,two hybrid approaches,the integral-SOR method and the integral-spectral method,are developed by combining the first step of the integral method with the second step adopted from the SOR-based and spectral methods,respectively.Upon testing these methods on real-case complex flows,the integral-SOR method is significantly more accurate than the integral-spectral method,noting that the latter is still generally more accurate than the three previously-used methods.The integral-SOR method is recommended for future applications and diagnostic studies of complex flows.

关键词： streamfunction and velocity potential complex flow fields successive over-relaxation method mesoscale study

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Key regions where land surface processes shape the East Asian climate

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2022年第3期15卷 64-66页

作者： Haishan CHEN KLME/ILCEC/CIC-FEMD Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

陆气相互作用是影响东亚大气环流和气候的一个关键过程,受到了越来越多的关注.然而,关于陆面过程影响东亚气候的相关机理的理解还有待提升.在已有研究基础上,提出了陆面过程影响东亚气候研究值得关注的青藏高原,欧亚中高纬地区,中国东... 详细信息

陆气相互作用是影响东亚大气环流和气候的一个关键过程,受到了越来越多的关注.然而,关于陆面过程影响东亚气候的相关机理的理解还有待提升.在已有研究基础上,提出了陆面过程影响东亚气候研究值得关注的青藏高原,欧亚中高纬地区,中国东部季风区,中南半岛,中亚中纬度区域,西亚等6个关键区,期待为加强陆面过程与东亚气候研究提供一定参考.

关键词：陆面过程东亚气候关键区

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Evaluating the Capabilities of Soil Enthalpy, Soil Moisture and Soil Temperature in Predicting Seasonal Precipitation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第4期35卷 445-456页

作者： Changyu ZHAO Haishan CHEN Shanlei SUN Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)/International Joint Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) School of Atmospheric Science Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)

Soil enthalpy （H） contains the combined effects of both soil moisture （w） and soil temperature （T） in the land surface hydrothermal process. In this study, the sensitivities of H to w and T are investigated using the multi-linear regression method. Results indicate that T generally makes positive contributions to H, while w exhibits different （positive or negative） impacts due to soil ice effects. For example, w negatively contributes to H if soil contains more ice; however, after soil ice melts, w exerts positive contributions. In particular, due to lower w interannual variabilities in the deep soil layer （i.e., the fifth layer）, H is more sensitive to T than to w. Moreover, to compare the potential capabilities of H, w and T in precipitation （P） prediction, the Huanghe-Huaihe Basin （HHB） and Southeast China （SEC）, with similar sensitivities of H to w and T, are selected. Analyses show that, despite similar spatial distributions of H-P and T-P correlation coefficients, the former values are always higher than the latter ones. Furthermore, H provides the most effective signals for P prediction over HHB and SEC, i.e., a significant leading correlation between May H and early summer （June） P. In summary, H, which integrates the effects of T and w as an independent variable, has greater capabilities in monitoring land surface heating and improving seasonal P prediction relative to individual land surface factors （e.g., T and w）.

关键词： seasonal precipitation prediction land surface process soil enthalpy soil moisture soil temperature

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基于CWRF的中国近海热带气旋集合模拟及其对物理参数化方案的敏感性研究

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2021年第1期14卷 22-26页

作者： Wenru Shi Haishan CHEN Xin-Zhong Liang Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center University of Maryland5825 University Research CourtSuite 4001College ParkMDUSA

为评估CWRF模式的降尺度能力和其热带气旋模拟对物理参数化方案的敏感性,本文利用ERI再分析资料驱动CWRF在30km网格上对1982-2016年中国近海热带气旋开展了一次集合模拟.结果表明:CWRF与ERI均能模拟出热带气旋的季节变化和年际变化形势... 详细信息

为评估CWRF模式的降尺度能力和其热带气旋模拟对物理参数化方案的敏感性,本文利用ERI再分析资料驱动CWRF在30km网格上对1982-2016年中国近海热带气旋开展了一次集合模拟.结果表明:CWRF与ERI均能模拟出热带气旋的季节变化和年际变化形势且均存在低估,但相较ERI,CWRF的降尺度技术和集合模拟可以再现更多的热带气旋,显著减少低估.年际变化结果提升最为明显,它对积云方案最为敏感,其次是边界层,陆面和辐射方案,对云和微物理方案较弱.该研究为应用CWRF理解和预报热带气旋提供了参考.

关键词：热带气旋集合模拟物理参数化方案区域降尺度

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Possible connection between anomalous activity of Scandinavian Atmospheric Teleconnection Pattern and winter snowfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin of China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2019年第3期12卷 218-225页

作者： ZHU Lin chen haishan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/International Joint Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science& Technology

利用中国地面气候资料日值数据集(V3.0)逐日气象资料研究了我国江淮冬季降雪的时空变化及其与斯堪的纳维亚遥相关型(SCAND)的可能联系。结果表明:江淮冬季降雪表现出空间一致的年际变化,SCAND与江淮地区冬季降雪异常关系密切。江淮冬季... 详细信息

利用中国地面气候资料日值数据集(V3.0)逐日气象资料研究了我国江淮冬季降雪的时空变化及其与斯堪的纳维亚遥相关型(SCAND)的可能联系。结果表明:江淮冬季降雪表现出空间一致的年际变化,SCAND与江淮地区冬季降雪异常关系密切。江淮冬季降雪偏多通常对于SCAND正位相,500hPa阻塞高压、东亚大槽加强,有利于冷空气活动增强,江淮地区垂直运动增强,水汽输送增强;降雪偏少则对应SCAND负位相。研究结果有助于深入理解江淮冬季降雪异常的相关机理。

关键词：冬季降雪江淮地区大气环流斯堪的纳维亚遥相关型

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东亚夏季风主模态的再认识及其热力驱动因子:基于25个季风指数的比较分析（英文）

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2019年第4期12卷 278-285页

作者： YE Mao chen haishan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/International Joint Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

基于1979-2016年ERA-Interim、NCEP和JRA-55三套再分析资料对25个常用东亚夏季风指数进行分类,在此基础上探讨各类季风指数与降水、环流异常的联系及其热力驱动因子。结果表明东亚夏季风指数可以分为两类:第一类指数表征东亚夏季风的年... 详细信息

基于1979-2016年ERA-Interim、NCEP和JRA-55三套再分析资料对25个常用东亚夏季风指数进行分类,在此基础上探讨各类季风指数与降水、环流异常的联系及其热力驱动因子。结果表明东亚夏季风指数可以分为两类:第一类指数表征东亚夏季风的年际模态,与低纬环流异常和EAP遥相关型关系密切,对应夏季降水的经向三级型分布,主要受热带海温异常的影响;而第二类指数表征东亚夏季风的年代际模态,与中高纬环流异常和EU遥相关型紧密相关,对应夏季降水的经向偶极型分布,其异常信号主要位于极区和欧亚大陆中高纬,体现了欧亚大陆热力异常对东亚夏季气候的影响。

关键词：东亚夏季风指数季风主模态夏季降水异常大气环流异常热力驱动因子

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Improvement of Soil Moisture Simulation in Eurasia by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model from CMIP5 to CMIP6

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第2期38卷 237-252页

作者： Yinghan SANG Hong-Li REN Xueli SHI Xiaofeng XU Haishan CHEN School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Laboratory for Climate Studies&CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081China

This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of historical surface soil moisture simulation(1979-2012)over Eurasia at annual and seasonal time scales between two medium-resolution versions of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM)—one that is currently participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),i.e.,BCC-CSM2-MR,and the other,BCC-CSM1.1m,which participated in CMIP5.We show that BCC-CSM2-MR is more skillful in reproducing the climate mean states and standard deviations of soil moisture,with pattern correlations increased and biases reduced significantly.BCC-CSM2-MR performs better in capturing the first two primary patterns of soil moisture anomalies,where the period of the corresponding time series is closer to that of reference data.Comparisons show that BCC-CSM2-MR performs at a high level among multiple models of CMIP6 in terms of centered pattern correlation and“amplitude of variation”(relative standard deviation).In general,the centered pattern correlation of BCC-CSM2-MR,ranging from 0.61 to 0.87,is higher than the multi-model mean of CMIP6,and the relative standard deviation is 0.75,which surmounts the overestimations in most of the CMIP6 models.Due to the vital role played by precipitation in land-atmosphere interaction,possible causes of the improvement of soil moisture simulation are further related to precipitation in BCC-CSM2-MR.The results indicate that a better description of the relationship between soil moisture and precipitation and a better reproduction of the climate mean precipitation by the model may result in the improved performance of soil moisture simulation.

关键词： BCC-CSM soil moisture CMIP6 historical simulation Eurasia

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