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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第11期55卷 1077-1083页

作者： hu yamin1,2,3& ding yihui4 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, china Meteorological Administration, guangzhou 510080, china 2 guangdong climate center, guangzhou 510080, china 3 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, china 4 National climate center, china Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, china Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Guangzhou 510080 China guangdong climate center Guangzhou 510080 China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China National climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

By using BCC_RegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from Beijing climate center (BCC), china Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-huaihe region during 1991-2005 are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) RegCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-huaihe region. (2) By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-calculated precipitation and temperature, the Meiyu onset and ending date have been determined. Compared with the observation, RegCM can simulate the interannual variation of the Yangtze-huaihe Meiyu with preferable capability for most of the normal Meiyu years (such as 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004), especially for the rich Meiyu years of 1996, 1998 and 1999. (3) In terms of the average simulation for the recent 15 years, the timings of onset and ending of Meiyu occur on June 1 and July 13, respectively, which are earlier than the climatological observation. For duration, Meiyu persists for 32 d, 3 d shorter than the observation. The index of Meiyu intensity is 2.45, while the climatological one is 3.00. Therefore, RegCM is capable of simulating the climatological Meiyu duration and intensity, while the capability of simulating the onset and ending date of Meiyu still needs to be improved.

关键词：梅雨季节模拟计算长江气候观测发病时间强度指数中国气象局空间分布

An improvement on summer regional climate simulation over East china: importance of data assimilation of soil moisture

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An improvement on summer regional climate simulation over Ea...

An improvement on summer regional climate simulation over East china: Importance of data assimilation of soil moisture

第七届全国优秀青年气象科技工作者学术研讨会

作者： hu yamin1, 2, ding yihui3 & LIAO Fei2 1 guangdong climate center, guangzhou 510080, china 2 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, china Meteorological Administration, guangzhou 510080, china 3 National climate center, china Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, china

The Newtonian relaxation is used to assimilate data from the Second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2) into the initial field for soil moisture in a regional climate model (i. e., BCCegCM 1.0, hereinafter called RegCM). The results show that different nudging parameters can improve the simulation of the air temperature and the precipitation to some extent in summertime sea-son over East china. When the nudging intensity is 0.5 and nudging duration is 5 days, the result is desirable. Introducing the data assimilation of soil moisture into RegCM, the amelioration is not only in the spatial distribution pattern but also in the mag-nitude of the temperature and the precipitation. More specifically, the assimilation experiments have corrected the systematical cold bias of the air temperature and the precipitation on the low side, which is much closer to the observation compared with the control experiment. On the whole, the assimilation experiments shed light on the fact that the simulated bias in the original RegCM may be affected by the description of soil moisture in the land surface process. Therefore, the effect of soil moisture in RegCM should be paid more attention in the future.

关键词： soil moisture Newtonian relaxation data assimilation regional climate simulation

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第9期55卷 867-873页

作者： hu yamin1,2,3, ding yihui4 & LIAO Fei2 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, china Meteorological Administration, guangzhou 510080, china 2 guangdong climate center, guangzhou 510080, china 3 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, china 4 National climate center, china Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, china

The Newtonian relaxation is used to assimilate data from the Second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2) into the initial field for soil moisture in a regional climate model (i.e., BCC_RegCM 1.0, hereinafter called RegCM). The results show that different nudging parameters can improve the simulation of the air temperature and the precipitation to some extent in summertime season over East china. When the nudging intensity is 0.5 and nudging duration is 5 days, the result is desirable. Introducing the data assimilation of soil moisture into RegCM, the amelioration is not only in the spatial distribution pattern but also in the magnitude of the temperature and the precipitation. More specifically, the assimilation experiments have corrected the systematical cold bias of the air temperature and the precipitation on the low side, which is much closer to the observation compared with the control experiment. On the whole, the assimilation experiments shed light on the fact that the simulated bias in the original RegCM may be affected by the description of soil moisture in the land surface process. Therefore, the effect of soil moisture in RegCM should be paid more attention in the future.

关键词： soil moisture Newtonian relaxation data assimilation regional climate simulation

Patterns and drivers of avian taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity in china vary across geographical backgrounds and dispersal abilities

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Zoological Research 2024年第1期45卷 125-135页

作者： Jian-Chao Liang Zhi-Feng ding Chun-Lin Li Yi-Ming hu Zhi-Xin Zhou Gan-Wen Lie Xiao-Nan Niu Wen-Bin huang hui-Jian hu Xing-Feng Si guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and UtilizationInstitute of ZoologyGuangdong Academy of SciencesGuangzhouGuangdong 510260China School of Resources and Environmental Engineering Anhui UniversityHefeiAnhui 230601China guangdong Eco-Engineering Polytechnic GuangzhouGuangdong 510520China huizhou Institute of Forestry(huizhou Botanical Garden Management Service center) HuizhouGuangdong 516001China Administration of National Nature Reserve for Marine Ecology of guangdong Nanpeng Islands ShantouGuangdong 515900China Zhejiang Zhoushan Archipelago Observation and Research Station Institute of Eco-ChongmingZhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research StationSchool of Ecological and Environmental SciencesEast China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China

Geographical background and dispersal ability may strongly influence assemblage dissimilarity;however,these aspects have generally been overlooked in previous large-scale beta diversity ***,we examined whether the patterns and drivers of taxonomic beta diversity(TBD)and phylogenetic beta diversity(PBD)of breeding birds in china vary across(1)regions on both sides of the hu Line,which demarcates china’s topographical,climatic,economic,and social patterns,and(2)species with different dispersal *** and PBD were calculated and partitioned into turnover and nestedness components using a moving window *** representing climate,habitat heterogeneity,and habitat quality were employed to evaluate the effects of environmental *** distance was considered to assess the impact of dispersal *** partitioning analysis was applied to assess the relative roles of these *** general,the values of TBD and PBD were high in mountainous areas and were largely determined by environmental ***,different dominant environmental filters on either side of the hu Line led to divergent beta diversity ***,climate-driven species turnover and habitat heterogeneity-related species nestedness dominated the regions east and west of the line,***,bird species with stronger dispersal ability were more susceptible to environmental filtering,resulting in more homogeneous *** results indicated that regions with distinctive geographical backgrounds may present different ecological factors that lead to divergent assemblage dissimilarity patterns,and dispersal ability determines the response of assemblages to these ecological *** a single universal explanation for the observed pattern without considering these aspects may lead to simplistic or incomplete ***,a comprehensive understanding of large-scale beta diversity patterns and effective pla

关键词： Beta diversity Environmental filtering Dispersal limitation hu Line Species dispersal ability Breeding birds

Disastrous Persistent Extreme Rainfall Events of the 2022 Pre-Flood Season in South china:Causes and Subseasonal Predictions

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第4期37卷 469-485页

作者： Jiehong XIE Pang-Chi HSU yamin hu Qiaomei LIN Mengxi YE Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210000 Jieyang Meteorological Bureau China Meteorological AdministrationJieyang 522000 guangdong climate center China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510000

Two persistent extreme rainfall events(PEREs) with record-breaking amounts of rainfall and long duration caused disastrous impact during the 2022 pre-flood season in South china. Atmospheric intraseasonal variability played a key role in triggering and maintaining both PEREs, but its major impact on each event was associated with different modes. For the first PERE(10-15 May;PERE1), the tropical and extratropical quasi-biweekly oscillations jointly contributed to the extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast, the long duration(6-21 June) of the heavy rainfall during the second PERE(PERE2) was closely related to prolonged convection and moisture transport anomalies induced mainly by the tropical 30-90-day variability. Subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions by the model of the ECMWF showed limited skill in relation to the rainfall intensity of PERE1 and PERE2 beyond 1–2 weeks. Further assessment suggested that the fidelity of the PERE predictions was linked to model skill in predicting the phase evolution and intensity of tropical and extratropical intraseasonal variabilities. Thus, efficient monitoring and accurate prediction of the various modes of atmospheric intraseasonal variability are fundamental to reducing the hazard associated with PEREs in South china.

关键词： persistent extreme rainfall event intraseasonal oscillation South china subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Predictor Selection for CNN-based Statistical Downscaling of Monthly Precipitation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第6期40卷 1117-1131页

作者： Dangfu YANG Shengjun LIU yamin hu Xinru LIU Jiehong XIE Liang ZHAO Central South University Changsha 410083China guangdong climate center Guangzhou 510610China Jieyang Meteorological Bureau Jieyang 522031China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmosphere Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Convolutional neural networks(CNNs) have been widely studied and found to obtain favorable results in statistical downscaling to derive high-resolution climate variables from large-scale coarse general circulation models(GCMs).However, there is a lack of research exploring the predictor selection for CNN modeling. This paper presents an effective and efficient greedy elimination algorithm to address this problem. The algorithm has three main steps: predictor importance attribution, predictor removal, and CNN retraining, which are performed sequentially and iteratively. The importance of individual predictors is measured by a gradient-based importance metric computed by a CNN backpropagation technique, which was initially proposed for CNN interpretation. The algorithm is tested on the CNN-based statistical downscaling of monthly precipitation with 20 candidate predictors and compared with a correlation analysisbased approach. Linear models are implemented as benchmarks. The experiments illustrate that the predictor selection solution can reduce the number of input predictors by more than half, improve the accuracy of both linear and CNN models,and outperform the correlation analysis method. Although the RMSE(root-mean-square error) is reduced by only 0.8%,only 9 out of 20 predictors are used to build the CNN, and the FLOPs(Floating Point Operations) decrease by 20.4%. The results imply that the algorithm can find subset predictors that correlate more to the monthly precipitation of the target area and seasons in a nonlinear way. It is worth mentioning that the algorithm is compatible with other CNN models with stacked variables as input and has the potential for nonlinear correlation predictor selection.

关键词： predictor selection convolutional neural network statistical downscaling gradient-based importance metric

1995—2021年广东“龙舟水”期间灾情分析

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气象科技 2024年第3期52卷 415-423页

作者：姜晓岑胡娅敏黄锋莫伟强广东省东莞市气象局东莞523082 广东省气候中心广州510640

针对广东“龙舟水”灾情的灾前预估和灾后快速估计的需求,本文利用1995—2021年广东“龙舟水”期间降雨和暴雨洪涝灾害数据,计算“龙舟水”综合灾情指数,应用百分位法将其划分为轻、中、重3个等级;并对广东“龙舟水”的灾情特征、降雨... 详细信息

针对广东“龙舟水”灾情的灾前预估和灾后快速估计的需求,本文利用1995—2021年广东“龙舟水”期间降雨和暴雨洪涝灾害数据,计算“龙舟水”综合灾情指数,应用百分位法将其划分为轻、中、重3个等级;并对广东“龙舟水”的灾情特征、降雨与灾情的关系进行分析。结果表明:(1)1995—2021年广东“龙舟水”期间降雨强度、范围、强降雨频率及持续时间的峰值集中在2005—2010年,灾情强峰值出现在2005—2008年,峰值区间较一致;2008年灾情最重,2008年后综合灾情强度呈下降趋势,近10 a(2012—2021年)各灾情也呈下降趋势,以倒塌房屋数、受灾人口数、农作物受灾面积降幅最明显,直接经济损失降幅较小。(2)农作物受灾面积与各降雨指标的相关性最大,其次为受灾人口数和直接经济损失;综合灾情等级、直接经济损失主要受降雨强度、强降雨频率影响,受灾人口数、农作物受灾面积灾情主要受降雨强度、降雨范围影响,倒塌房屋数、死亡人数灾情主要受强降雨的频率影响。(3)建立的“龙舟水”平均总降雨量与灾情的拟合关系方程,能较好地估计“龙舟水”综合灾情等级和灾情数据。

关键词：龙舟水灾情特征分析灾情估计

From china’s Heavy Precipitation in 2020 to a “Glocal” Hydrometeorological Solution for Flood Risk Prediction

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第1期38卷 1-7页

作者： huan WU Xiaomeng LI Guy J.-P.SChuMANN Lorenzo ALFIERI Yun CHEN hui XU Zhifang WU Hong LU yamin hu Qiang Zhu Zhijun huANG Weitian CHEN Ying hu guangdong Province Key Laboratory for climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies and School of Atmospheric SciencesSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangdong 510000China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Laboratory Guangdong 519000China Earth System Science Interdisciplinary center University of MarylandMaryland 20742USA School of Geographical Sciences University of BristolBristol BS81THUK DFO Global Flood Observatory University of Colorado BoulderBoulder 80309USA CIMA Research Foundation Savona 17100Italy National Meteorological center Beijing 100081China guangdong Meteorological center GuangzhouGuangdong 510000China GuangXi climate center NanningGuangxi 530000China guangdong climate center GuangzhouGuangdong 510000China china Three Gorges Corporation Beijing 100081China

The prolonged mei-yu/baiu system with anomalous precipitation in the year 2020 has swollen many rivers and lakes,caused flash flooding,urban flooding and landslides,and consistently wreaked havoc across large swathes of china,particularly in the Yangtze River *** precipitation and flooding anomalies have already been seen in magnitude and extension so far this year,which have been exerting much higher pressure on emergency responses in flood control and mitigation than in other years,even though a rainy season with multiple ongoing serious flood events in different provinces is not that uncommon in *** of delving into the causes of the uniqueness of this year’s extreme precipitation-flooding situation,which certainly warrants in-depth exploration,in this article we provide a short view toward a more general hydrometeorological solution to this annual nationwide problem.A“glocal”(global to local)hydrometeorological solution for floods(GHS-F)is considered to be critical for better preparedness,mitigation,and management of different types of significant precipitation-caused flooding,which happen extensively almost every year in many countries such as china,India and the United *** a GHS-F model is necessary from both scientific and operational perspectives,with the strength in providing spatially consistent flood definitions and spatially distributed flood risk classification considering the heterogeneity in vulnerability and resilience across the entire *** in the development of such a GHS-F are suggested,emphasizing the user’s requirements and needs according to practical experiences with various flood response agencies.

关键词： flooding flood risk global to local hydrological model extreme precipitation

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广东省群发性高温事件的气候特征研究

热带气象学报 2023年第1期39卷 37-46页

作者：李芷卉胡娅敏广东省气候中心广东广州510641

基于1961—2020年广东省86个国家自动气象站的日最高气温数据,采用一种客观识别方法,对广东省群发性高温事件进行回算识别,结果得到广东省群发性高温事件呈显著增长趋势,且在1990年代发生一次年代际突变,群发性高温事件主要发生在4—10... 详细信息

基于1961—2020年广东省86个国家自动气象站的日最高气温数据,采用一种客观识别方法,对广东省群发性高温事件进行回算识别,结果得到广东省群发性高温事件呈显著增长趋势,且在1990年代发生一次年代际突变,群发性高温事件主要发生在4—10月,其频次、强度、持续时间和空间影响范围等特征参数均呈现以7月为最盛期的类单峰式分布。值得关注的是,近60年来广东群发性短历时高温事件呈略微减少趋势,而长历时(≥6天)的事件数呈现显著增加趋势,这给政府的防灾减灾造成更大的难度。

关键词：广东群发性高温事件持续时间气候特征