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China's pre-2020 CO2 emission reduction potential and its influence

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Frontiers in Energy 2019年第3期13卷 571-578页

作者： Hailin WANG jiankun he Institute of Energy Environment and Economy Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable DevelopmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Institute of Energy Environment and Economy Modem Management Research CenterInstitute of Climate Change and Sustainable DevelopmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

China achieved the reduction of CO2 intensity of GDP by 45% compared with 2005 at the end of 2017, realizing the commitment at 2009 Copenhagen Conference on emissions reduction 3 years ahead of time. In future implementation of the "13th Five-Year Plan (FYP)," with the decline of economic growth rate, decrease of energy consumption elasticity and optimization of energy structure, the CO2 intensity of GDP will still have the potential for decreasing before 2020. By applying KAYA Formula decomposition, this paper makes the historical statistics of the GDP energy intensity decrease and CO2 intensity of energy consumption since 2005, and simulates the decrease of CO2 intensity of GDP in 2020 and its influences on achieving National Determined Contribution (NDC) target in 2030 with scenario analysis. The results show that China's CO2 intensity of GDP in 2020 is expected to fall by 52.9%-54.4% than the 2005 level, and will be 22.9%-25.4% lower than 2015. Therefore, it is likely to overfulfill the decrease of CO2 intensity of GDP by 18% proposed in the 13th FYP period. Furthermore, the emission reduction potentiality before 2020 will be conducive to the earlier realization of NDC objectives in 2030. China's CO2 intensity of GDP in 2030 will fall by over 70% than that in 2005, and CO2 emissions peak will appear before 2030 as early as possible. To accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy, China needs to make better use of the carbon market, and guide the whole society with carbon price to reduce emissions effectively. At the same time, China should also study the synergy of policy package so as to achieve the target of emission reduction.

关键词： China's National Determined Contribution emission reduction potential scenario analysis CO2 emissions peak

Strong earthquake clustering around the eastern Tibetan Plateau after the 2008 MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第7期63卷 999-1012页

作者： Duyuan XU Jie XIAO jiankun he Weimin WANG Key Laboratory of Continental Collision and Plateau Uplift Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

After the 2008 M_W7.9 Wenchuan earthquake,the eastern Tibetan Plateau experienced a series of M_W>6.0 earthquakes,including the 2013 M_W6.6 Lushan,2014 M_W6.1 Kangding and 2017 M_W6.5 Jiuzhaigou *** on available constraints,we build a three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element model to calculate Coulomb failure stress caused by these strong *** this model,the geometry and slip vector of the initial rupture zone of each earthquake are used to better evaluate the earthquake-related stress *** reasonable ranges of viscosities for the crust and upper mantle in different tectonic units,numerical results show that after the Wenchuan earthquake,the coseismic Coulomb failure stress change at the hypocenters of the subsequent earthquakes increased to approximately+0.012–+0.040,+0.01–+0.03,and+0.008–+0.015 MPa,*** viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle,the Coulomb failure stress change at the hypocenters of these earthquakes accumulated to about+0.014–+0.042,+0.016–+0.036,and+0.003–+0.007 MPa just before their *** suggests that the Wenchuan earthquake indeed triggered or hastened the occurrence of the Lushan,Kangding and Jiuzhaigou events,supporting that strong earthquake clustering around the eastern Tibetan Plateau could be related to stress interaction between the seismogenic ***,~94%and^6%of the stress increase around(and before the occurrence of)the Kangding earthquake were contributed by the Wenchuan event and the Lushan event,respectively;the positive Coulomb failure stress change at the Jiuzhaigou earthquake hypocenter was related to coseismic slip partitioning of the Wenchuan *** means that stress interaction among the earthquakes could be controlled by the combined effect of stress of the previous events and by the complexity of earthquake ***,in researches on the earthquake-triggering mechanism,special attentions should be paid on both details o

关键词： Earthquake clustering Viscoelastic stress triggering Finite element modeling Wenchuan earthquake Eastern Tibetan Plateau

China's Voluntary Mitigation Target and Road of Low-carbon Development

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2011年第2期9卷 18-27页

作者： he jiankun Research Center of Modern Management Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China

China is going through a rapid development stage of industrialization and *** tremendous achievements have been made in the aspects of energy conservation,improvement of energy effectiveness and development of new and renewable energies,because of the rapid development of economy,it is difficult to change the huge total amount and fast increase of CO2 emission in the near *** has to confront the tough challenge to address global climate *** plans to reduce carbon intensity,that is,CO2 emissions per unit GDP,by 40 to 45% by 2020 compared with the 2005 *** is a strategic option to coordinate domestic sustainable development with coping with global climate change on the basis of China's national circumstances,representing the core content and key measures for transforming development pattern and realizing low-carbon *** achieve the target,more capital and technology inputs are required for energy conservation and low-carbon development during the twelfth and Thirteenth Five Year Plan period than in the Eleventh Five Year Plan *** addition,energy conservation achieved by structural adjustment,industrial upgrading and product value-added improvement is also expected to play a greater ***,China should strengthen technological innovation,make greater efforts to transform the development pattern,take advantage of the synergistic effect of policies and measures while coping with global climate change and building a domestic tow-oriented *** should also establish an industrial system characterized by low-carbon *** China will ultimately achieve a win-win situation in both domestic sustainable development and coping with global climate change.

关键词： climate change low-carbon economy carbon inten-sity emission reduction target

Viscoelastic stress change from the 1931 M_(w)7.8 Fuyun earthquake and its impacts on seismic activity around the Altai mountains

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Geodesy and Geodynamics 2024年第4期15卷 326-337页

作者： Yali Shao jiankun he Xinguo Wang Youjia Zhao Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and ResourcesInstitute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The 1931 M_(w)7.8 Fuyun earthquake occurred around the Altai mountains, an intracontinental deformation belt with limited active strain-rate accumulation. To explore whether seismic activity in this deformation belt was affected by stress interaction among different active faults, we calculate the Coulomb failure stress change(ΔCFS) induced by the Fuyun earthquake due to coseismic deformation of the elastic crust and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle. Numerical results show that the total ΔCFS at a 10-km depth produced by the Fuyun earthquake attains approximately 0.015-0.134 bar near the epicenter, and just before the occurrence of the 2003 M_(w)7.2 Chuya earthquake, which distances about 400 km away from the Fuyun earthquake. Among the increased ΔCFS,viscoelastic relaxation from 1931 to 2003 contributes to approximately 0.014-0.131 bar, accounting for>90% of the total ΔCFS. More importantly, we find that for the recorded seismicity in the region with a radius of about 270 km to the Fuyun earthquake from 1970 to 2018, the percentage of earthquakes that fall in positive lobes of ΔCFS resolved on the NNW-SSE Fuyun strike-slip fault, on the NWW-SEE Irtysh strike-slip fault, and on the NW-SE Kurti reverse fault is up to 67.22%-91.36%. Therefore, the predictedΔCFS suggests that the impact of the 1931 M_(w)7.8 Fuyun earthquake on seismic activity around the Altai mountains is still significant as to hasten occurrence of the 2003 M_(w)7.2 Chuya earthquake at a relatively far distance and to trigger its aftershocks in the near-field even after several decades of the mainshock.

关键词： Altai mountains Fuyunearthquake Coulomb failure stress change Viscoelasticrelaxation Seismic activity

Carbon Productivity Analysis to Address Global Climate Change

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2011年第1期9卷 9-15页

作者： he jiankun Su Mingshan Research Center for Contemporary Management Tsinghua University Beijing 10084 China

Developing low-carbon economy and enhancing carbon productivity are basic approaches to coordinating economic development and protecting global environment, which are also the major ways to address climate change under the framework of sustainable development. In this paper, the authors analyze the annual rate of carbon productivity growth, the differences of carbon productivity of different countries, and the factors for enhancing carbon productivity. Consequently, the authors clarify their viewpoint that the annual rate of carbon productivity growth can be used to weigh the efforts that a country takes to address climate change, and propose policies and suggestions on promoting carbon production.

关键词： carbon productivity annual rate of carbon productivity growth global climate change greenhouse gas reduction

Situation and measures of China＇s CO2 emission mitigation after the Paris Agreement

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Frontiers in Energy 2018年第3期12卷 353-361页

作者： jiankun he Research Center for Contemporary Management (RCCM) TsinghuaUniversity Beijing 100084 China

Global response to climate change has entered the phase of full implementation of the Paris Agreement. To control the global temperature rise below 2℃, all countries must make more efforts to reduce emission. China has combined its goal of emission reduction for combating climate change with its domestic sustainable development strategy to promote energy revolution and the transition of economic development to low-carbon pat- terns. Through reinforcing the commitment and action before 2020, the CO2 intensity of GDP can decrease by more than 50% by 2020 compared with that of 2005, and the external commitment target of a 40%-45% decrease can be over fulfilled. Currently, under the new economic normal, China further strengthens the policy measure, vigorously saves energy, enhances energy use efficiency and the economic output benefit, and simultaneously develops new and renewable energy and accelerates energy structural decarbonization, so that the annual decrease rate of the CO2 intensity of GDP keeps a high level of more than 4% and remains increasing. Thus, the decrease rate of the CO2 intensity of GDP will exceed the GDP growth rate, and then CO2 emission will peak around 2030. This will promote the fundamental turning of economic development mode, and lay a foundation for the establishment of a sustainable energy system with near- zero emissions and with new and renewable energy as the main body in the second half of this century. China implements the concept of green low-carbon development and accelerates the low carbon transition of energy and economy to achieve win-win results in economic growth and CO2 emission mitigation, and these policies and actions will also provide experiences for many other developing countries. On the other hand, China will continue to play a positive and constructive leading role in the implementation of the Paris Agreement internationally, and promote the construction of new mechanisms of win- win cooperation, fairness and justice an

关键词： climate change the Paris Agreement energy revolution NDC (national determined contribution) goals

A biased fairness assessment against developing countries

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Science Bulletin 2019年第6期64卷 367-369页

作者： Fei Teng jiankun he Wenjie Dong Xunzhang Pan Institute of Energy Environment and Economy Tsinghua Univesity School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy China University of Petroleum

Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, almost all countries have submitted their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat. Those submissions form the basis for the implementation of Paris Agreement. However, recent research [1] has shown that existing NDCs will not bring the world to the goal of limiting global temperature increase to below 2 °C above preindustrial levels, much less achieving the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C [2,3].

关键词： Since the adoption countries have submitted limiting warming

Channel flow of the lower crust and its relation to large-scale tectonic geomorphology of the eastern Tibetan Plateau

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Science China Earth Sciences 2012年第4期55卷 1383-1390页

作者： WANG XiaoFang he jiankun Key Laboratory of Continental Collision and Plateau Uplift Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China

The Tibetan Plateau is a large-scale tectonic geomorphologic unit formed by the interactions of *** has been commonly believed that convective removal of the thickened Tibetan lithosphere,or lateral flow of the lower crust beneath the Tibetan plateau plays a crucial role in the formation of the large-scale tectonic geomorphologic *** geological and geo-physical observations have provided important evidence in support of the lower crustal channel flow ***,it re-mains unclear as how the geometry of lower crustal channel and the lateral variation of crustal rheology within the lower crust channel may have affected spatio-temporal evolution of the tectonic geomorphologic unit of the Tibetan ***,we use numerical methods to explore the mechanical relations between the lower crustal channel flow and the tectonic geomorpho-logic formation around the eastern Tibetan plateau,by deriving a series of governing equations from fluid mechanics *** numerous tests,our results show that the viscosity of the channeled lower crust is about(1-5)×1018 to(1-4)×1020 Pa s(Pa.s) beneath the margin of the eastern Tibetan Plateau,and increases to about 1022 Pa s beneath the Sichuan Basin and the southern region of Yunnan *** tests also indicate that if channel flows of the lower crust exist,the horizontal propagation and the vertical uplifting rate of the eastern Tibetan Plateau margin could be accelerated with the ***,the present results could be useful to constrain the rheological structure of the crust beneath the eastern Tibetan plateau,and to understand the possible mechanics of rapid uplift of the eastern Tibetan Plateau margin,especially since its occurrence at 8Ma as revealed by numerous geological observations.

关键词： channel flow rheology of the lower crust tectonic geomorphology eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau

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Towards a new climate economics:research areas and prospects

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2015年第1期13卷 1-9页

作者： jiankun he Fei Teng Ye Qi Research Center for Contemporary Management Tsinghua University Institute of Energy Environment and Economy Tsinghua University School of Public Policy and Management Tsinghua University

International cooperation to address climate change now stands at a *** a new international regime for emissions reduction established by the Durban Platform, "New Climate Economics(NCE)" has become a research *** need for urgent action to combat climate change has prompted discussion on reforms of economic growth patterns and the energy *** industrial civilization,therefore,now faces a transition towards a new pathway for ecological *** explores new economic concepts,theories,and analytical methods to design a balanced pathway for sustainable growth and emission *** of getting trapped in discussions on allocation of emission reduction responsibilities and obligations among countries,NCE pays more attention to developing win-win multilateral cooperation mechanisms that facilitate collaborative R&D and knowledge *** addition,NCE studies incentives for low-carbon transition,turning carbon emission reduction into a domestic need for countries to increase their international *** achieve the 2°C target,most countries around the world face challenges of insufficient emission allowances to cover expected emissions associated with their projected economic *** carbon emissions rights becomes an increasingly scarce resource,increasing the carbon productivity of the economy turns to be the critical path to address the dilemma of green or *** studies the historical evolution of carbon productivity for countries at different development stages as well as ways to enhance such carbon *** type of study provides invaluable lessons for emerging economies to reach their own emission peaks without losing the momentum of *** fossil fuels with new and renewable energy has proven to be an inevitable choice for reshaping the energy system and addressing climate change- it has already become a global *** studies incentives for new energy technology innovation and deplo

关键词： new climate economics low-carbon development energy transformation carbon productivity