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Atmospheric Circulation Patterns over East Asia and Their Connection with Summer Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in Eastern China during 1961–2013

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第2期32卷 203-218页

作者： Shuping LI Wei HOU guolin feng College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 College of Physical Science and Technology Yangzhou University Yangzhou 225000

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Chinese observational data during 1961–2013, atmospheric circulation patterns over East Asia in summer and their connection with precipitation and surface air temperature in eastern China as well as associated external forcing are investigated. Three patterns of the atmospheric circulation are identified, all with quasi-barotropic structures：（1） the East Asia/Pacific（EAP） pattern,（2） the Baikal Lake/Okhotsk Sea（BLOS） pattern, and（3） the eastern China/northern Okhotsk Sea（ECNOS） pattern. The positive EAP pattern significantly increases precipitation over the Yangtze River valley and favors cooling north of the Yangtze River and warming south of the Yangtze River in summer. The warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean suppress convection over the northwestern subtropical Pacific through the Ekman divergence induced by a Kelvin wave and excite the EAP pattern. The positive BLOS pattern is associated with below-average precipitation south of the Yangtze River and robust cooling over northeastern China. This pattern is triggered by anomalous spring sea ice concentration in the northern Barents Sea. The anomalous sea ice concentration contributes to a Rossby wave activity flux originating from the Greenland Sea, which propagates eastward to North Pacific. The positive ECNOS pattern leads to below-average precipitation and significant warming over northeastern China in summer. The reduced soil moisture associated with the earlier spring snowmelt enhances surface warming over Mongolia and northeastern China and the later spring snowmelt leads to surface cooling over Far East in summer, both of which are responsible for the formation of the ECNOS pattern.

关键词： atmospheric circulation patterns precipitation surface air temperature external forcing

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Relationship between Tropical Indian Ocean SSTA in Spring and Precipitation of Northeast China in Late Summer

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2019年第6期33卷 1060-1074页

作者： Junhu ZHAO Jie ZHOU Kaiguo XIONG guolin feng Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 College of Physical Science and Technology Yangzhou UniversityYangzhou 225002 Chongqing Climate Center Chongqing Meteorological ServiceChongqing 401147 Wuhan Regional Climate Center Wuhan 430074

Sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)is a major signal for prediction of summer precipitation in East *** relationship between SSTA in the tropical oceans and summer precipitation in East Asia has been documented in many ***,the relationship between SSTA and late summer(July–August)precipitation(JAP)over Northeast China(NEC)on the interannual timescale has received little *** this study,we examine the relationship between Indian Ocean Basin warming(IOBW)anomalies in spring and the JAP in NEC since the early1960 s.A significant positive correlation is found between the spring IOBW index and JAP over *** positive spring IOBW anomaly is followed by an anomalous anticyclone from Northwest Pacific to the Korean *** anomalous anticyclone favors a significantly strong and northward western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),which facilitates anomalous southerly winds over NEC and the transport of more water vapor into this *** analysis indicates that the spring IOBW anomalies have important impacts on the vertical air motion in the tropics and subtropics during the *** anomalous upward(downward)motion covering Indonesia(Northwest Pacific to the southern Korean Peninsula)occurs when the IOBW is in its positive phase,which favors the northward movement of the WPSH in late summer and more precipitation over NEC in July–*** of the atmospheric circulation by this mechanism further influences the JAP over NEC.

关键词： Northeast China(NEC) late summer precipitation interannual circulation Indian Ocean Basin warming(IOBW)

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On the Relationship between the Winter Eurasian Teleconnection Pattern and the Following Summer Precipitation over China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第6期33卷 743-752页

作者： Junhu ZHAO Liu YANG Bohui GU Jie YANG guolin feng Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Department of Physical Science and Technology Yangzhou UniversityYangzhou 225002 College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000 Jiangsu Provincial Climate Center Nanjing 210008

The Eurasian teleconnection pattern （EU） is an important low-frequency pattern with well-known impacts on climate anomalies in Eurasia. The difference of low-level v-winds in several regions in the Eurasian mid-high latitudes is defined as the EU index （EUIv）. In this study, the relationship between the winter EUIv and precipitation in the following summer over China is investigated. Results show that there is a significant positive （negative） correlation between the winter EUIv and the following summer precipitation over North China （the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins）. Meanwhile, an interdecadal variability exists in the interannual relationship, and the correlation has become significantly enhanced since the early 1980s. Thus, the proposed EUIv may have implications for the prediction of summer precipitation anomalies over China. In positive winter EUIv years, three cyclonic circulation anomalies are observed--over the Ural Mountains, the Okhotsk Sea, and the subtropical western North Pacific. That is, the Ural blocking and Okhotsk blocking are inactive, zonal circulation prevails in the mid-high latitudes, and the western Pacific subtropical high tends to be weaker and locates to the north of its normal position in the following summer. This leads to above-normal moisture penetrating into the northern part of East China, and significant positive （negative） precipitation anomalies over North China （the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins）, and vice versa. Further examination shows that the SST anomalies over the Northwest Pacific and subtropical central North Pacific may both contribute to the formation of EUIv-related circulation anomalies over the western North Pacific.

关键词： Eurasian teleconnection summer precipitation North China Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins

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Water Vapor Transport Related to the Interdecadal Shift of Summer Precipitation over Northern East Asia in the Late 1990s

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第5期32卷 781-793页

作者： Po HU Minghao WANG Liu YANG Xiaojuan WANG guolin feng College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000 Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Changwang School of Honors Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211004 College of Physical Science and Technology Yangzhou UniversityYangzhou 225002 College of Physics and Electronic Engineering Changshu Institute of TechnologyChangshu 215500

In this study, an interdecadal shift of summer precipitation over northern East Asia （NEA） was identified, demon-strating that summer precipitation decreased abruptly after 1998/99. The synchronous shift in summer moisture budget and water vapor transport over NEA was further investigated by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results indicate that water vapor transported northward into NEA from three low-latitude paths was limited because most water vapor was transported eastward. Water vapor transported from the westerly path in mid-high （WMH） lat-itudes exhibited significant correlations with summer precipitation in NEA and experienced a significant adjustment in the late 1990s. Regarding the spatial distributions of water vapor transport, less input was found through the west-ern boundary while more output occurred through the eastern boundary of NEA, and zonal water vapor transport fluxes mainly concentrated at the low to middle levels, which led to the summer precipitation shift in NEA around the late 1990s. Furthermore, it is also confirmed that the wind anomalies （rather than the moisture disturbance） as the dominant internal dynamic factor and Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （PDO/AMO） as possible external force played important roles in influencing the water vapor transport and causing the summer pre-cipitation shift over NEA in the late 1990s.

关键词： summer precipitation water vapor transport interdecadal shift northern East Asia

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Joint Effect of East Asia-Pacific and Eurasian Teleconnections on the Summer Precipitation in North Asia

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第3期34卷 559-574页

作者： Po HU guolin feng Muhammad Mubashar DOGAR Jianbo CHENG Zhiqiang GONG Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research Institute of Heavy RainChina Meteorological AdministrationWuhan 430205China National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Global Change Impact Studies Centre(GCISC) Ministry of Climate ChangeIslamabad 44000Pakistan College of Physical Science and Technology Yangzhou UniversityYangzhou 225002China College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

The East Asia-Pacific(EAP)and Eurasian(EU)teleconnections are independent of each other on the seasonal timescale(with a correlation coefficient of only 0.03).But they may occur concurrently with consistent or opposite *** paper investigates their synergistic effect on the summer precipitation in North *** on the signs/phases of EAP and EU indices,the EAP and EU teleconnection anomalies occur in four cases:(Ⅰ)positive EAP+positive EU,(Ⅱ)negative EAP+negative EU,(Ⅲ)positive EAP+negative EU,and(Ⅳ)negative EAP+positive *** analyses show that these four configurations of EAP and EU anomalies are coherently related to different atmospheric circulations over the midlatitude Eurasian continent,leading to different summer precipitation modes in North ***Ⅰ(Ⅱ)corresponds to a zonal tripole structure of the geopotential height at 500 hPa over eastern Europe and the Sea of Japan,leading to less(more)than normal precipitation in eastern Europe,Japan,and the surrounding areas,and more(less)precipitation from central China to Lake Baikal and eastern ***Ⅲ(Ⅳ)corresponds to a meridional dipole structure of the geopotential height at 500 hPa over North Asia,leading to more(less)precipitation in the northern North Asia and less(more)precipitation in most of the southern North *** analysis reveals that the EAP teleconnection itself is positively correlated with the precipitation in the region between the eastern part of Lake Baikal and Okhotsk Sea,and negatively correlated with the precipitation in the region between Northeast China and ***,the EU pattern and precipitation have negative correlations in Ural Mountain and Okhotsk Sea areas and positive correlations in the Lake Baikal *** respective relations of EAP and EU with the summer precipitation in North Asia suggest that the EAP northern lobe overlapped with the EU central and eastern lobes could extend the geopotential anomalies over Lake Baikal to Russia

关键词： East Asia–Pacific(EAP)teleconnection Eurasian(EU)teleconnection synergistic effect precipitation

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The methodology of quantitative assess economic output of climate change

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第13期56卷 1333-1335页

作者： CHOU JieMing DONG WenJie feng guolin College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University Beijing 100857 China National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

A method is introduced in this paper to study the effect of future climatic change on the *** researchers determine the economic output of climate change from historical data,and provide a method to quantitatively predict economic output of climate change by an economic-climatic model.A historical reciprocating examination is used to analyze output data for various crops in eight agricultural areas in China and meteorological data from 160 observatories in China from 1980 to *** results show that the methods used are reasonable to a certain extent and good in application.

关键词：未来气候变化经济定量评估历史数据研究人员模型预测输出数据气象数据

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Spatial-temporal variation characteristics of global evaporation revealed by eight reanalyses

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Science China Earth Sciences 2015年第3期58卷 255-269页

作者： SU Tao feng guolin College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

On the basis of eight atmospheric reanalyses, we analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of global evaporation and also briefly evaluated the eight reanalyses. The results indicate that the long-term mean annual evaporation obtained from different reanalyses are consistent over most regions, with significant maritime-continental contrasts, as well as differences in meridional directions, and the land evaporation generally decreases with the increase of altitude. In addition, the temporal evolution of global evaporation varies significantly among the datasets, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-NCRA, and NCEP-DOE are very similar, whereas CFSR agrees best with ERA-40. Comparison of the inter-annual to inter-decadal variability of land evaporation reveals large differences among the reanalyses, whereas MERRA, CFSR, and NCEP-DOE are exactly similar. The temporal variation of evaporation over the oceans showed a relatively high consistency, which indicates that the quality of the reconstructed evaporation values over the oceans is higher, and even greater uncertainties lie in the estimates of evaporation over the land. In general, MERRA and NCEP-DOE may appropriately reflect the spatial-temporal characteristics of global evaporation, showing strong representativeness. The CFSR and ERA-40 are capable of revealing the characteristics of land evaporation, whereas ERA-Interim, NCEP-NCAR, OAFlux, and HOAPS are relatively applicable for research focused on the evaporation over the oceans. According to ERA-40, NCEP-NCAR, and OAFlux, global evaporation significantly decreased for the period of 1958–1978. In contrast, most of the eight reanalyses show a significant linear increase for the period of 1979–2011, and evaporation over the oceans was even more pronounced. Furthermore, the results are presented for the mean annual cycle of global evaporation, the changes at the low latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere are most distinct, and the monthly variation amplitude of the land evapo

关键词： evaporation briefly reconstructed consistency capable exactly meridional continental interpolation directions

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Reconstruction of Conceptual Prediction Model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China under global warming

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Science China Earth Sciences 2014年第4期57卷 3047-3061页

作者： ZHAO JunHu feng guolin National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University

With the influence of global warming,the global climate has undergone significant inter-decadal variation since the late *** El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)has been the strongest signal for predicting global climate inter-annual variability,its relation with the summer rainfall in China has significantly changed,and its indicative function on the summer rainfall in China has *** has led to a significant decrease in the accuracy rate of early conceptual prediction models for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern *** the basis of the difference analysis of atmospheric circulation system configuration in summer,as well as the interaction of ocean and atmospheric in previous winter between two phases,*** and after the significant global warming(1951 to 1978 and 1979 to 2012,respectively),we concluded that(1)Under different inter-decadal backgrounds,the atmospheric circulations that impacted the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China showed consistency,but in the latter phase of the global warming,the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH)was on the strong side,the position of which was in the south,and the blocking high in the Eurasia mid-high latitudes was active,while the polar vortex extended to the south,and meridional circulation *** circulation background may have been conducive to the increase of the circulation frequency of Patterns II and III,and the decrease of the circulation frequency of Pattern I,thus leading to more Patterns II and III and fewer Pattern I in the summer rainfall of eastern China.(2)In the former phase,the corresponding previous winter SST fields of different rainfall patterns showed visible *** impact of ENSO on North Pacific Oscillation(NPO)was great,and the identification ability of which on Patterns I and II of summer rainfall was *** the latter phase,this identification ability decreased,while the impact of ENSO on the Pacific/North Amer

关键词： global warming climate change Three Rainfall Patterns ENSO NPO PNA prediction model

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Dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme based on the abrupt decadal change component of summer precipitation in East Asia

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Science China Earth Sciences 2015年第2期58卷 404-419页

作者： GONG ZhiQiang ZHAO JunHu feng guolin CHOU JiFan Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Research Center CMA College of Atmospheric Science Lanzhou University

Based on the 1983~2011 CMAP data,the precipitation anomaly in East Asia and its nearby sea regions（hereafter called East Asia for short） demonstrates the ＂＋-＋＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＂ pattern afterwards; this decadal change is contained principally in the corresponding EOF3 ***,the NCC_CGCM forecast results are quite different,which reveal the ＂＋-＋-＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＋＂ pattern ***,the probability of improving NCC_CGCM＇s forecast accuracy based on these key SST areas is discussed,and the dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme is constructed for increasing the information of decadal change contained in the summer precipitation in East *** independent sample forecast results indicate that this forecasting scheme can effectively modify the NCC_CGCM＇s decadal change information contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia（especially in the area of 30°N–55°N）.The ACC is 0.25 and ACR is 61% for the forecasting result based on the V SST area,and the mean ACC is 0.03 and ACR is 51% for the seven key areas,which are better than NCC_CGCM＇s system error correction results（ACC is -0.01 and ACR is 49%）.Besides,the modified forecast results also provide the information that the precipitation anomaly in East Asia mainly shows the ＂＋-＋＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＂ pattern afterwards.

关键词： abrupt decadal change dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme summer precipitation East Asia sea surface temperature

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Forecast scheme and strategy for extended-range predictable components

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Science China Earth Sciences 2013年第4期56卷 878-889页

作者： ZHENG ZhiHai HUANG JianPing feng guolin CHOU JiFan National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University

Although extended-range forecasting has exceeded the limit of daily predictability of weather,there are still partially predictable characteristics of meteorological fields in such forecasts.A targeted forecast scheme and strategy for extended-range predictable components is *** on chaotic characteristics of the atmosphere,predictable components and unpredictable random components are separated by using the standpoint of error growth in a numerical *** predictable components are defined as those with slow error growth at a given range,which are not sensitive to small errors in initial conditions. A numerical model for predictable components(NMPC)is established,by filtering random components with poor *** aim is to maintain predictable components and avoid the influence of rapidly growing forecast errors on small scales. Meanwhile,the analogue-dynamical approach(ADA)is used to correct forecast errors of predictable components,to decrease model error and statistically take into account the influence of random *** scheme is applied to operational dynamical extended-range forecast(DERF)model of the National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration (NCC/CMA).Prediction results show that the scheme can improve forecast skill of predictable components to some extent, especially in high predictability *** skill at zonal wave zero is improved more than for ultra-long waves and synoptic-scale *** show good agreement with predictability of spatial *** a result,the scheme can reduce forecast errors and improve forecast skill,which favors operational use.

关键词： extended-range forecast predictability predictable components analogue-dynamical approach

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