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Magnitudes of Climate Variability and Changes over the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya between 1961 and 2013 Period

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American Journal of Climate Change 2018年第1期7卷 27-39页

作者： Jully O. Ouma Luke O. Olang Gilbert O. Ouma Christopher Oludhe Laban Ogallo guleid artan Department of Meteorology University of Nairobi Nairobi Kenya IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) Nairobi Kenya Department of Biosystem and Environmental Engineering Technical University of Kenya Nairobi Kenya

The magnitude and trend of temperature and rainfall extremes as indicators of climate variability and change were investigated in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) of Kenya using in-situ measurements and gridded climate proxy datasets, and analysed using the Gaussian-Kernel analysis and the Mann-Kendall statistics. The results show that the maximum and minimum temperatures have been increasing, with warmer temperatures being experienced mostly at night time. The average change in the mean maximum and minimum seasonal surface air temperature for the region were 0.74°C and 0.60°C, respectively between the 1961-1990 and 1991-2013 periods. Decreasing but statistically insignificant trends in the seasonal rainfall were noted in the area, but with mixed patterns in variability. The March-April-May rainfall season indicated the highest decrease in the seasonal rainfall amounts. The southern parts of the region had a decreasing trend in rainfall that was greater than that of the northern areas. The results of this study are expected to support sustainable pastoralism system prevalent with the local communities in the ASALs.

关键词： Arid and Semi-Arid Lands Climate Variability and Change Northern Kenya

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Forage Monitoring and Prediction Model for Early Warning Application over the East of Africa Region

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Journal of Atmospheric Science Research 2022年第4期5卷 1-9页

作者： Jully Ouma Dereje Wakjira Ahmed Amdihun Eva Nyaga Franklin Opijah John Muthama Viola Otieno Eugene Kayijamahe Solomon Munywa guleid artan Department of Meteorology University of Nairobi30197-00100NairobiKenya IGAD Centre for Pastoral Areas and Livestock Development(ICPALD) 47824-00100NairobiKenya IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre(ICPAC) 10304-00100NairobiKenya

Rangelands dominate arid and semi-arid lands of the Greater Horn of Africa(GHA)region,whereby pastoralism being the primary source of *** pastoral livelihood is affected by the seasonal variability of pasture and water *** research sought to design a grid-based forage monitoring and prediction model for the cross-border areas of the GHA region.A technique known as Geographically Weighted Regression was used in developing the model with monthly rainfall,temperature,soil moisture,and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI).Rainfall and soil moisture had a high correlation with NDVI,and thus formed the model development *** model performed well in predicting the available forage biomass at each grid-cell with March-May and October-December seasons depicting a similar pattern but with a different magnitude in ton/*** output is critical for actionable early warning over the GHA region’s rangeland *** is expected that this mode can be used operationally for forage monitoring and prediction over the eastern Africa region and further guide the regional,national,sub-national actors and policymakers on issuing advisories before the season.

关键词： Prediction Forage biomass Rangelands Pastoralism Early warning East Africa

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Vulnerability of Kenya’s Water Towers to Future Climate Change: An Assessment to Inform Decision Making in Watershed Management

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American Journal of Climate Change 2020年第3期9卷 317-353页

作者： Kenneth Kemucie Mwangi Anthony M. Musili Viola A. Otieno Hussen S. Endris Geoffrey Sabiiti Mohammed A. Hassan Abebe Tadege Tsehayu artan guleid Zachary Atheru Alphonce C. Guzha Thomas De Meo Nikola Smith Dickson Lubanga Makanji John Kerkering Brehan Doud Enock Kanyanya IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Nairobi Kenya USDA Forest Service International Programs c/o African Wildlife Foundation (AWF) Karen Kenya USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Region Portland OR USA Egerton University Njoro Kenya USDA Forest Service International Programs Washington DC USA USDA Forest Service International Programs Seattle USA USAID Kenya and East Africa Nairobi Kenya

Recent trends show that in the coming decades, Kenya’s natural resources will continue to face significant pressure due to both anthropogenic and natural stressors, and this will have greater negative impacts on socio-economic development including food security and livelihoods. Understanding the impacts of these stressors is an important step to developing coping and adaptation strategies at every level. The Water Towers of Kenya play a critical role in supplying ecosystems services such as water supply, timber and non-timber forest products and regulating services such as climate and water quantity and quality. To assess the vulnerability of the Water Towers to climate change, the study adopted the IPCC AR4 framework that defines vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The historical trends in rainfall indicate that the three Water Towers show a declining rainfall trend during the March-April-May (MAM) main rainy season, while the October-November-December (OND) short rainy season shows an increase. The temperature patterns are consistent with the domain having a common rising trend with a rate in the range of 0.3°C to 0.5°C per decade. Projection analysis considered three emissions scenarios: low-emission (mitigation) scenario (RCP2.6), a medium-level emission scenario (RCP4.5), and a high-emission (business as usual) scenario (RCP8.5). The results of the high-emission scenario show that the annual temperature over the Water Towers could rise by 3.0°C to 3.5

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Vulnerability of Kenya’s Water Towers to Future Climate Change: An Assessment to Inform Decision Making in Watershed Management

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American Journal of Climate Change 2020年第3期

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