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Science Bulletin 2019年第10期64卷 690-697页

作者： Qijin He guangsheng zhou Xiaomin Lü Mengzi zhou College of Resources and Environmental Sciences China Agricultural University Beijing 100193 China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

Evaluating climatic suitability of crop cultivation lays a foundation for agriculture coping with climate change scientifically. Herein, we analyse changes in the climatically suitable distribution of summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5℃(GW1.5) and 2.0℃(GW2.0) global warming in the future according to the temperature control targets set by the Paris Agreement. Compared with the reference period (1971- 2000), the summer maize cultivation climatically suitable region (CSR) in China mainly shifts eastwards, and its acreage significantly decreases at both GW1.5 and GW2.0. Despite no dramatic changes in the CSR spatial pattern, there are considerable decreases in the acreages of optimum and suitable regions (the core of the main producing region), indicating that half-a-degree more global warming is unfavourable for summer maize production in China's main producing region. When the global warming threshold increases from GW1.5 to GW2.0, the centres-of-gravity of optimum areas shift northeastward under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the centres-of-gravity of both suitable and less suitable areas shift northwestward, though the northward trend is more prominent for the less suitable areas, and the centre-of-gravity of unsuitable areas shifts southeastward. Generally, half-a-degree more global warming drives the cultivable areas of summer maize to shift northward in China, while the west region shows a certain potential for expansion of summer maize cultivation.

关键词： Summer maize Cultivation distribution Climatic suitability 1.5°C global warming 2.0°C global warming

Global change and climate-vegetation classification

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2000年第7期45卷 577-585页

作者： guangsheng zhou Yuhui Wang Chinese Acad Sci Inst Bot Lab Quantitat Vegetat Ecol Beijing 100093 Peoples R China

Three phrases of the quantitative study of climate-vegetation classification and their characteristics are presented based on the review of advance in climate-vegetation interaction, a key issue of 'global change and terrestrial ecosystems (GCTE)' which is the core project of International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP): (i) characterized by the correlation between natural vegetation types and climate; (? characterized by climatic indices which have obviously been restricted to plant ecophysiology; (iii) characterized by coupling both structure and function of vegetation. Thus, the prospective of climate-vegetation classification for global change study in China was proposed, especially the study coupling climate-vegetation classification models with atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) was emphasized.

关键词： climate-vegetation interaction climate-vegetation classification atmospheric general circulation models global change.

Analysis of Parameter Sensitivity on Surface Heat Exchange in the Noah Land Surface Model at a Temperate Desert Steppe Site in China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第6期31卷 1167-1182页

作者： Guo ZHANG guangsheng zhou Fei CHEN State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China National Center for Atmospheric Research BoulderCO 80302USA

The dominant parameters in the Noah land surface model （LSM） are identified, and the effects of parameter optimization on the surface heat exchange are investigated at a temperate desert steppe site during growing season in Inner Mongolia, China. The relative impacts of parameters on surface heat flux are examined by the distributed evaluation of local sensitivity analysis （DELSA）, and the Noah LSM is calibrated by the global shuffled complex evolution （SCE） against the corresponding observations during May-September of 2008 and 2009. The differences in flux sim- ulations are assessed between the Noah LSM calibrated by the SCE with 27 parameters and 12 dominant parameters. The systematic error, unsystematic error, root mean squared error, and mean squared error decompositions are used to evaluate the model performance. Compared to the control experiment, parameter optimization by the SCE using net radiation, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and ground heat flux as the objective criterion, respectively, can ob- viously reduce the errors of the Noah LSM. The calibrated Noah LSM is further validated against flux observations of growing season in 2010, and it is found that the calibrated Noah LSM can be applied in the longer term at this site. The Noah LSM with 12 dominant parameters calibrated performs similar to that with 27 parameters calibrated.

关键词： parameter optimization sensitivity analysis temperate desert steppe

Spatiotemporal dynamic simulation of grassland carbon storage in China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2016年第10期59卷 1946-1958页

作者： ZHANG Li zhou guangsheng JI YuHe BAI YongFei State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change Institute of BotanyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100093China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China

Based on the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model(TEM 5.0), together with the data of climate(temperature, precipitation and solar radiation) and environment(grassland vegetation types, soil texture, altitude, longitude and latitude, and atmospheric CO2 concentration data), the spatiotemporal variations of carbon storage and density, and their controlling factors were discussed in this paper. The results indicated that:(1) the total carbon storage of China's grasslands with a total area of 394.93×104 km2 was 59.47 Pg C. Among them, there were 3.15 Pg C in vegetation and 56.32 Pg C in soil carbon. China's grasslands covering 7.0–11.3% of the total world's grassland area had 1.3–11.3% of the vegetation carbon and 9.7–22.5% of the soil carbon in the world grasslands. The total carbon storage increased from 59.13 to 60.16 Pg C during 1961–2013 with an increasing rate of 19.4 Tg C yr^(-1).(2) The grasslands in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau contributed most to the total carbon storage during 1961–2013, accounting for 63.2% of the total grassland carbon storage, followed by Xinjiang grasslands(15.8%) and Inner Mongolia grasslands(11.1%).(3) The vegetation carbon storage showed an increasing trend, with the average annual growth rate of 9.62 Tg C yr^(-1) during 1961–2013, and temperature was the main determinant factor, explaining approximately 85% of its variation. The vegetation carbon storage showed an increasing trend in most grassland regions, however, a decreasing trend in the central grassland in the southern China, the western and central parts of the Inner Mongolian grasslands as well as some parts on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The soil carbon storage showed a significantly increasing trend with a rate of 7.96 Tg C yr^(-1), which resulted from the interaction of more precipitation and low temperature in the 1980 s and 1990 s. Among them, precipitation was the main determinant factor of increasing soil carbon increases of China's grasslands.

关键词： China's grasslands Soil carbon Vegetation carbon Spatiotemporal dynamics Simulation

Projection of Heat Injury to Single-Cropping Rice in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, China under Future Global Warming Scenarios

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2019年第2期33卷 363-374页

作者： Xiaomin LYU guangsheng zhou Mengzi zhou Li zhou Yuhe JI State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology

Based on simulation results from the 16 CMIP5 model runs under three Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in combination with the recent five years of growth-stage data from agrometeorological observation stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, changes in heat injury and spatial distribution patterns of single-cropping rice in China during the early(2016–35), middle(2046–65), and late(2080–99) 21 st century were projected by using quantitative estimations. Relative to the reference period(1986–2005), the occurrence probabilities of heat injury to single-cropping rice under different RCP scenarios increased significantly, showing a trend of mild > moderate > severe. The occurrence probabilities increased with time and predicted emissions, especially the average and maximum occurrence probabilities, which were ～48% and ～80%,respectively, in the late 21 st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. The spatial patterns of the occurrence probabilities at each level of heat injury to single-cropping rice did not change, remaining high in the middle planting region and low in the east. The high-value areas were mainly in central Anhui and southeastern Hubei provinces, and the areas extended to the northwest and northeast of the cultivation area over time. Under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, the total area of heat injury to single-cropping rice showed a significant linear increasing trend of 7.4 × 10~3, 19.9× 10~3, and 35.3 × 10~3 ha yr^(–1), respectively, from 2016 to 2099, and the areas of heat injury were greatest in the late21 st century, accounting for ～25%, ～40%, and ～59% of the cultivation area.

关键词： projection single-cropping rice heat injury climate change China

Remote estimation of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation for a maize canopy in Northeast China

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Journal of Plant Ecology 2015年第4期8卷 429-435页

作者： Feng Zhang guangsheng zhou Christer Nilsson State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change Institute of BotanyChinese Academy of Sciences20 NanxincunXiangshanHaidian DistrictBeijing 100093China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences 46 Zhongguancun South StreetHaidian DistrictBeijing 100081China Landscape Ecology Group Department of Ecology and Environmental ScienceUmeåUniversityUmeåSE-90187Sweden

Aims accurate remote estimation of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation(fAPAR)is essential for the light use efficiency(LUE)***,one challenge for the LUE models is lack of knowledge about the relationship between fAPAR and the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).Few studies have tested this relationship against field measurements and evaluated the accuracy of the remote estimation *** study aimed to reveal the empirical relationship between NDVI and fAPAR and to improve algorithms for remote estimation of *** to investigate the method of remote estimation of fAPAR seasonal dynamics,the CASA(Carnegie-ames-stanford approach)model and spectral vegetation indices(VIs)were used for in situ measure-ments of spectral reflectance and fAPAR during the growing season of a maize canopy in Northeast *** Findingsthe results showed that the fAPAR increased rapidly with the day of year during the vegetative stage,it remained relatively stable at the stage of reproduction,and finally decreased slowly during the senescence *** addition,fAPAR green[fAPAR_(green)=fAPAR_(green) -fAPAR_(green) LAI_(max))]showed clearer seasonal trends than *** NDVI,red-edge NDVI,wide dynamic range vegetation index,red-edge position(REP)and REP with sentinel-2 bands derived from hyperspectral remote sensing data were all significantly positively related to fAPAR green during the entire growing *** a comparison of the predictive performance of VIs for the whole growing season,REP was the most appropriate spectral index,and can be recommended for monitoring seasonal dynamics of fAPAR in a maize canopy.

关键词： fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation hyperspectral remote sensing maize canopy spectral vegetation indices

Variation of net primary productivity and its drivers in China’s forests during 2000-2018

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Forest Ecosystems 2020年第2期7卷 190-200页

作者： Yuhe Ji guangsheng zhou Tianxiang Luo Yakir Dan Li zhou Xiaomin Lv State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LASW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological ScienceBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Earth&Planetary Sciences Weizmann Institute of Science76100 RehovotIsrael.

Background:Net primary productivity(NPP)in forests plays an important role in the global carbon ***,it is not well known about the increase rate of China’s forest NPP,and there are different opinions about the key factors controlling the variability of forest ***:This paper established a statistics-based multiple regression model to estimate forest NPP,using the observed NPP,meteorological and remote sensing data in five major forest *** fluctuation values of NPP and environment variables were extracted to identify the key variables influencing the variation of forest NPP by correlation ***:The long-term trends and annual fluctuations of forest NPP between 2000 and 2018 were *** results showed a significant increase in forest NPP for all five forest ecosystems,with an average rise of 5.2 gC·m-2·year-1 over *** 90%of the forest area had an increasing NPP range of 0-161 gC·m-2·*** NPP had an interannual fluctuation of 50-269 gC.m-2·year-1 for the five major forest *** evergreen broadleaf forest had the largest *** variability in forest NPP was caused mainly by variations in precipitation,then by temperature ***:All five forest ecosystems in China exhibited a significant increasing NPP along with annual fluctuations evidently during *** variations in China’s forest NPP were controlled mainly by changes in precipitation.

关键词： Net primary production(NPP) Forest ecosystem annual precipitation NPP model Fluctuation Variability

Analysis of the Variability of Canopy Resistance over a Desert Steppe Site in Inner Mongolia, China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第3期31卷 681-692页

作者： ZHANG Guo zhou guangsheng CHEN Fei WANG Yu Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change Institute of Botany Chinese Academy of Sciences National Center for Atmospheric Research College of Forestry Henan University of Science and Technology

ABSTRACT Canopy resistance substantially affects the partitioning of available energy over vegetated surfaces. This study analyzed the variability of canopy resistance and associated driving environmental factors over a desert steppe site in Inner Mongolia, China, through the use of eddy-flux and meteorological data collected from 2008 to 2010. Distinct seasonal and interannual variabilities in canopy resistance were identified within those three years, and these variabilities were controlled primarily by precipitation. Strong interannual variability was found in vapor pressure deficit （VPD）, similar to that of air temperature. Based on the principal component regression method, the analysis of the relative contribution of five major environmental factors [soil-water content （SWC）, leaf-area index （LAI）, photosynthetically active radiation （Kp）, VPD, and air temperature] to canopy resistance showed that the canopy-resistance variation was most responsive to SWC （with 〉 35% contribution）, followed by LAI, especially for water-stressed soil conditions （〉 20% influence）, and VPD （consistently with an influence of approximately 20%）. Canopy-resistance variations did not respond to Kp due to the small interannual variability in Kp during the three years. These analyses were used to develop a new exponential function of water stress for the widely used Jarvis scheme, which substantially improved the calculation of canopy resistance and latent heat fluxes, especially for moist and wet soils, and effectively reduced the high bias in evaporation estimated by the original Jarvis scheme. This study highlighted the important control of canopy resistance on plant evaporation and growth for the investigated desert steppe site with a relatively low LA1.

关键词： variability canopy resistance desert steppe site principal component regression

Quantifying the interannual litterfall variations in China’s forest ecosystems

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Journal of Plant Ecology 2020年第3期13卷 266-272页

作者： Bingrui Jia Hongru Sun Wenying Yu guangsheng zhou State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change Institute of BotanyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100093China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Institute of Atmospheric Environment China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang 110166China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China

Aims Litterfall is a key parameter in forest biogeochemical cycle and fire risk ***,considerable uncertainty remains regarding the litterfall variations with forest *** the interannual variation of forest litterfall is crucial for reducing uncertainties in large-scale litterfall *** Based on the available dataset(N=318)with continuous multi-year(≥2 years)measurements of litterfall in Chinese planted and secondary forests,coefficient of variation(CV),variation percent(V_(P)),and the ratio of next-year litterfall to current-year litterfall were used as the indexes to quantify the interannual variability in *** Findings The interannual variations of litterfall showed a declining trend with increasing age from 1 to 90 *** litterfall variations were the largest in 1-10 years(mean CV=23.51%and mean V_(P)=−28.59%to 20.89%),which were mainly from tree growth(mean ratio of next-year to current-year=1.20).In 11-40 years,the interannual variations of litterfall gradually decreased but still varied widely,mean CV was~18%and mean V_(P) ranged from−17.69%to 21.19%.In 41-90 years,the interannual variations minimized to 8.98%in mean CV and~8%in mean V_(P).As a result,forest litterfall remained relatively low and constant when stand age was larger than 40 *** result was different from the previous assumptions that forest litterfall reached relatively stable when stand age was larger than 30,20 or even 15 *** findings can improve the knowledge about forest litter ecology and provide the groundwork for carbon budget and biogeochemical cycle models at a large scale.

关键词： annual litterfall production China forest interannual variation coefficient of variation stand age

Altitudinal patterns of maximum plant height on the Tibetan Plateau

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Journal of Plant Ecology 2018年第1期11卷 85-91页

作者： Lingfeng Mao Shengbin Chen Jinlong Zhang guangsheng zhou Department of Renewable Resources University of Albertac/o 2-60 University TerraceEdmontonAlberta T6G 2H1Canada Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Environmental Protection8 JiangwangmiaoNanjing 210042China College of Environment and Civil Engineering Chengdu University of TechnologyDongsanluErxianqiaoChengdu 610059China Flora Conservation Department Kadoorie Farm and Botanic GardenLam Kam RoadTai PoNew TerritoriesHong Kong SARChina Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences 46 Zhongguancun Nandajie StreetBeijing 100081China

Aims Several studies have shown that plant height changes along environmen-tal ***,altitudinal patterns of plant height across species are still unclear,especially in regions sensitive to climate *** canopy height decreases dramatically near the tree line in alpine areas,we hypothesize that plant height across all species also decreases with increasing altitude,and distinct thresholds exist along this *** Using a large dataset of maximum plant height and elevation range(400 to 6000 m a.s.l.)of 4295 angiosperms from the regional flora of the Tibetan Plateau,we regressed plant height for every 100 m belt against elevation to explore the *** identify the approximate boundaries where dramatic changes in plant height occurs for herbaceous plants,shrubs,trees,woody plants and all angiosperms,we used piecewise linear *** independent contrast was used to test the potential evolutionary influences on altitudinal patterns at the family *** Findings Results showed that for herbaceous plants,shrubs,trees,woody plants and all angiosperms,plant height decreases significantly as altitude *** addition,we found that altitude,a proxy for many environmental factors,had obvious thresholds(breakpoints)dictating patterns of plant *** results of phylogenetically independent contrast also emphasized the importance of evolution-ary history in determining the altitudinal patterns of plant height for some growth *** results highlight the relative intense filter-ing effect of environmental factors in shaping patterns of functional traits and how this could vary for different ranges of environmental variables.

关键词： functional traits macroecology growth form phylogenetically independent contrast(PIC) tree line Tibet