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Prediction of survival after left-sided pancreatic resection for adenocarcinoma: Introduction of a new prognostic score

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Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International 2019年第6期18卷 569-575页

作者： Jill Gwiasda Zhi Qu Harald Schrem Felix Oldhafer Markus Winny Jürgen Klempnauer gerrit grannas Alexander Kaltenborn Transplant Center Hannover Medical SchoolCarl-Neuberg Str.130625 HannoverGermany Department of General Visceral and Transplant SurgeryHannover Medical SchoolHannoverGermany

Background:Due to the clinically unapparent course the entity of left-sided pancreatic adenocarcinoma is often diagnosed at advanced stages,resulting in small numbers of patients qualifying for *** study strives to develop a prognostic model for survival after left-sided pancreatic ***:A total of 54 patients were ***-and intra-operative predictive factors for 18-month mortality were identified with multivariable binary logistic regression analysis and compiled into a prognostic *** applicability was evaluated by assessment of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC).The model was internally validated applying a randomized backwards bootstrapping ***:The 18-month mortality rate was 74.1%(n=40).Mean survival was 19.1 months.A prognostic model for 18-month mortality after left sided-pancreatectomy showed an AUROC>0.800:18-month mortality risk in%=Exp(Y)/(1+Exp(Y))with y=-0.927+(1.724,if CA 19-9 elevated,otherwise 0)+(1.212×number of intra-operative transfused packed red blood cells)+(2.771,if prior abdominal surgery,otherwise 0)-(3.612,if gastric resection,otherwise 0)This model was internally validated in 40 randomized backwards bootstrapping steps with AUROCs ranging from 0.757 to ***:The 18-month mortality risk for patients after left-sided pancreatectomy for adenocarcinoma of the pancreatic body can be assessed with the number of intra-operatively transfused packed red blood cells,elevated CA 19-9 levels,additional gastric resection and prior abdominal surgeries in the patient’s history.

关键词： Pancreatic cancer Mortality Risk factors

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