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Edaphoclimatic seasonal trends and variations of the Salmonella spp. infection in Northwestern Mexico

Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 805-819页

作者： Yasiri Mayeli Flores Monter Andrea Chaves Beatriz Arellano-Reynoso Andres Mauricio Lopez-Perez Humberto suzan-Azpiri Gerardo Suzan Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia Universidad Nacional Autonoma de MexicoMexico City04510Mexico Escuela de Biología Universidad de Costa RicaSan Jose11501-2060Costa Rica Department of Medicine and Epidemiology School of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of CaliforniaDavisCA95695United States Laboratorio de Ecología Universidad Autonoma de Queretaro76230Mexico

Currently,Salmonella spp.is the bacterium causing the highest number of food-borne diseases(FADs)in the world.It is primarily associated with contaminated water used to that irrigates crops from intensive livestock farming.However,literature emphasizes that the reservoirs for Salmonella spp.remain in wildlife and there are unconventional sources or secondary reservoirs,such as soil.Human soil-borne diseases have not been modeled in spatial scenarios,and therefore it is necessary to consider soil and other climatic factors to anticipate the emergence of new strains or serotypes with potential threat to public and animal health.The objective of this research was to investigate whether edaphic and climatic factors are associated with the occurrence and prevalence of Salmonella spp.in Northwestern Mexico.We estimated the potential distribution of Salmonella spp.with an interpolation method of unsampled kriging areas for 15 environmental variables,considering that these factors have a seasonal dynamic of change during the year and modifications in longer periods.Subsequently,a database was generated with human salmonellosis cases reported in the epidemiological bulletins of the National System of Epidemiological Surveillance(SIVE).For the Northwest region,there were 30,595 human cases of paratyphoid and other salmonellosis reported have been reported in Baja California state,71,462 in Chihuahua,and 16,247 in Sonora from 2002 to 2019.The highest prevalence was identified in areas with higher temperatures between 35 and 37℃,and precipitation greater than 1000 mm.The edaphic variables limited the prevalence and geographical distribution of Salmonella spp.,because the region is characterized by presenting a low percentage of organic matter(≤4.3),and most of the territory is classified as aridic and xeric,which implies that the humidity comprises≤180 days a year.Finally,the seasonal time series indicated that in the states of Baja California and Chihuahua the rainy quarter of the year is 18.7%and 17.01%above a typical quar

关键词： Potential distribution Soil Temperature Precipitation Salmonella spp

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