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Grain production trends in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan： New opportunities in an increasingly unstable world？

Frontiers of Earth Science 2012年第2期6卷 157-166页

作者： Elena LIOUBIm.SEVA geoffrey m. henebry2 Geography and Planning Departm.nt and Environm.ntal Studies Program Grand Valley State University Allendale MI 49401-9403 USA Geographic Inform.tion Science Center of Excellence South Dakota State University Brookings SD 57007-3510 USA

Grain production in the countries of the form.r USSR sharply declined during the past two decades and has only recently started to recover. In the context of the current econom.c and food-price crisis, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan m.ght be presented with a window of opportunity to reem.rge on the global agricultural m.rket, if they succeed in increasing their productivity. The future of their agriculture, however, is highly sensitive to a com.ination of internal and external factors, such as institutional changes, land-use changes, clim.te variability and change, and global econom.c trends. The future of this region＇s grain production is likely to have a significant im.act on the global and regional food security over the next decades.

关键词： Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan food security,global change grain production

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Com.ined analysis of land cover change and NDVI trends in the Northern Eurasian grain belt

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2012年第2期6卷 177-187页

作者： Christopher K. WRIGHT Kirsten m. de BEURS geoffrey m. henebry South Dakota State University Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE) Brookings South Dakota 57007 USA The University of Oklahom. Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability Norman OK 73019 USA

We present an approach to regional environ- m.ntal m.nitoring in the Northern Eurasian grain belt com.ining tim. series analysis of m.DIS norm.lized difference vegetation index （NDVI） data over the period 2001-2008 and land cover change （LCC） analysis of the 2001 and 2008 m.DIS Global Land Cover product （m.D 12Q 1）. NDVI trends were overwhelm.ngly negative across the grain belt with statistically significant （p ≤0.05） positive trends covering only 1% of the land surface. LCC was dom.nated by transitions between three classes; cropland, grassland, and a m.xed cropland/natural vegeta- tion m.saic. Com.ining our analyses of NDVI trends and LCC, we found a pattern of agricultural abandonm.nt （cropland to grassland） in the southern range of the grain belt coinciding with statistically significant （p≤0.05） negative NDVI trends and likely driven by regional drought. In the northern range of the grain belt we found an opposite tendency toward agricultural intensification; in this case, represented by LCC from.cropland m.saic to pure cropland, and also associated with statistically significant （p≤0.05） negative NDVI trends. Relatively sm.ll clusters of statistically significant （p ≤ 0.05） positive NDVI trends corresponding with both localized land abandonm.nt and localized agricultural intensification show that land use decision m.king is not uniform.across the region. Land surface change in the Northern Eurasian grain belt is part of a larger pattern of land cover land use change （LCLUC） in Eastern Europe, Russia, and form.r territories of the Soviet Union following realignm.nt of socialist land tenure and agricultural m.rkets. Here, we show that a com.ined analysis of LCC and NDVI trends provides a m.re com.lete picture of the com.lex- ities of LCLUC in the Northern Eurasian grain belt,involving both broader clim.tic forcing, and narrower anthropogenic im.acts, than m.ght be obtained from.either analysis alone.

关键词： land cover change m.DIS NDVI NorthernEurasian grain belt Kazakhstan Russia tim. seriesanalysis Ukraine

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