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Predicting impacts of climate change on the biogeographic patterns of representative species richness in Prydz Bay-Amery Ice Shelf

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Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2023年第4期41卷 1504-1518页

作者： Yugui ZHU Shiyao ZHENG Bin KANG gabriel reygondeau Yan SUN Qianshuo ZHAO Yunfeng WANG William W.L.CHEUNG Jiansong CHU Key Laboratory of Mariculture(Ministry of Education) College of FisheriesOcean University of ChinaQingdao 266003China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory Guangzhou 511458China Changing Ocean Research Unit Institute for the Oceans and FisheriesUniversity of British ColumbiaVancouver V5K0A1BCCanada Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Max Planck Yale Center for Biodiversity Movement and Global ChangeYale UniversityNew Haven 06501CTUSA College of Marine Life Science Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266003China Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China

The research on the biological ecology of the Prydz Bay-Amery Ice Shelf in East Antarctica is inadequate under the increasing threat from climate change,especially for Antarctic fish and krill.The Dynamic Bioclimatic Envelope Model(DBEM)has been widely used in predicting the variation of species distribution and abundance in ocean and land under climate change;it can quantify the spatiotemporal changes of multi population under different climate emission scenarios by identifying the environmental preferences of species.The species richness and geographical pattern of six Antarctic representative species around Prydz Bay-Amery ice shelf were studied under RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios from 1970 to 2060 using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory(GFDL),Institut Pierre Simon Laplace(IPSL),and Max Planck Institute(MPI)earth system models.The results showed that the species richness decreased as a whole,and the latitude gradient moved to the pole.The reason is that ocean warming,sea ice melting,and human activities accelerate the distribution changes of species biogeographical pattern,and the habitat range of krill,silverfish,and other organisms is gradually limited,which further leads to the change of species composition and the decrease of biomass.It is obvious that priority should be given to Prydz Bay-Amery ice shelf in the planning of Marine Protected Areas(MPAs)in East Antarctica.

关键词： climate change species richness biogeographic pattern marine protected areas Prydz Bay-Amery Ice Shelf

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Modelling the variation of demersal fi sh distribution in Yellow Sea under climate change

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Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2022年第4期40卷 1544-1555页

作者： Yugui ZHU Yuting LIN Jiansong CHU Bin KANG gabriel reygondeau Qianshuo ZHAO Zhixin ZHANG Yunfeng WANG William W.L.CHEUNG Key Laboratory of Mariculture(Ministry of Education) College of FisheriesOcean University of ChinaQingdao 266003China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory Guangzhou 511458China College of Marine Life Science Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266003China Changing Ocean Research Unit Institute for the Oceans and FisheriesUniversity of British ColumbiaVancouver V5K0A1BCCanada Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Max Planck Yale Center for Biodiversity Movement and Global ChangeYale UniversityNew Haven 06501CTUSA Graduate School of Marine Science and Technology Tokyo University of Marine Science and TechnologyKonanMinatoTokyo 1088477Japan Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China

Climate change can aff ect fi sh individuals or schools,and consequently the fi sheries.Studying future changes of fi sh distribution and abundance helps the scientifi c management of fi sheries.The dynamic bioclimate envelope model(DBEM)was used to identify the“environmental preference profi les”of the studied species based on outputs from three Earth system models(ESMs).Changes in ocean conditions in climate change scenarios could be transformed by the model into those in relative abundance and distribution of species.Therefore,the distributional response of 17 demersal fi shes to climate change in the Yellow Sea could be projected from 1970 to 2060.Indices of latitudinal centroid(LC)and mean temperature of relative abundance(MTRA)were used to represent the results conducted by model.Results present that 17 demersal fi sh species in the Yellow Sea show a trend of anti-poleward shift under both low-emission scenario(RCP 2.6)and high-emission scenario(RCP 8.5)from 1970 to 2060,with the projected average LC in three ESMs shifting at a rate of-1.17±4.55 and-2.76±3.82 km/decade,respectively,which is contrary to the previous projecting studies of fi shes suggesting that fi shes tend to move toward higher latitudes under increased temperature scenarios.The Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass could be the major driver resulting in the shift,which shows a potential signifi cance to fi shery resources management and marine conservation,and provides a new perspective in fi sh migration under climate change.

关键词： climate change dynamic bioclimate envelope model distribution shifts relative abundance demersal fish Yellow Sea

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