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Projections of summer light rain frequency in typical terrain over eastern China under wind speed constraint

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第6期67卷 1885-1894页

作者： Xuechen DONG daoyi gong Cuicui SHI Institute of Disaster Risk Science Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster MOEFaculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China School of National Safety and Emergency Management Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China School of Systems Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

The variation in near-surface wind speed is a key dynamic parameter in the orographic effect of precipitation over eastern *** this study,we used the latest high-resolution outputs from six GCMs in CMIP6-HighResMIP to evaluate the performance of high-resolution models in simulating the orographic precipitation characteristics of typical mountainous areas in summer over eastern *** orographic precipitation under warming scenarios was projected and constrained according to observational *** results indicated that during the contemporary climate reference period(1979-2009),although the relationship between model-simulated near-surface wind speed and orographic light rain frequency was consistently stable,the sensitivity of the orographic light rain frequency to surface wind variability was generally underestimated,with a deviation approximately 24.1% lower than the observational *** estimated orographic light rain frequency corrected based on the observed near-surface wind speed under a 1.5℃ warming scenario,was 36.1% lower than that of the contemporary period;this reduction was 8.6 times that without the wind speed constraint(4.2%).The MRI-AGCM3-2-S model,with a longer dataset,demonstrated relatively stable reductions in orographic light rain frequency under different warming scenarios(1.5℃,2℃,3℃,and 4℃)after the application of wind speed *** all cases,the reductions exceeded those for the predictions made without the wind speed constraint.

关键词： Frequency of orographic light rain HighResMIP High-resolution projection Observational constraint Eastern China

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Decadal Shift in the Relationship between Winter Arctic Oscillation and Central Indian Ocean Precipitation during the Early 2000s

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第5期35卷 857-867页

作者： Yiwen SHI Yi CHEN daoyi gong Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875 Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875

The present study investigated the long-term change in the interannual relationship between the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation(AO)and tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)climate during 1979-2019 and found that their linkage experienced a decadal change in 2001/*** 19-yr sliding correlation coefficient between the January-February-March(JFM)AO index and central TIO(0-10°S,65°-80°E)precipitation was significant,with values of approximately 0.50-0.75 during 1979-2001,but abruptly decreased to 0.35 in 2002 and 0.10 in ***,the spatial patterns of the AO-related atmospheric circulation anomalies also displayed different features before and after *** 2002-2019,the anomalous anticyclone in the middle troposphere over the Arabian Sea moved northwestward and strengthened,and the JFM AO was more closely correlated to the anticyclone,with correlation coefficient changed from-0.38 before 2001 to-0.63 after 2001;correspondingly,strong cross-equator air flows were observed over the western TIO(40°-50°E),but no significant anomalies of precipitation in the central TIO were *** 1979-2001,however,significant southward cross-equator air flows appeared over the central TIO(65°-75°E),which enhanced the intertropical convergence zone and upward air motions,leading to more precipitation in central *** analysis shows that the AO may modulate the Arabian anticyclone through two Rossby wave paths in the upper troposphere:a midlatitude(50°-60°N)path during 1979-2001 from North Atlantic southeastward to the Middle East and the neighboring Arabian Sea;and a subtropical(20°-30°N)path during 2002-2019 from North Atlantic eastward to the Middle East and Arabian *** wave activity fluxes induced by AO were concentrated along the two paths before and after 2001,and the location of the cross-equator flows depends on the location of the *** of the decadal changes in the AO-associated wave trains need further investigation.

关键词： winter Arctic Oscillation tropical Indian Ocean precipitation Rossby wave

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Impacts of ENSO on rainfall of global land and China

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1999年第9期44卷 852-857页

作者： daoyi gong Shaowu Wang Peking Univ Dept Geophys Beijing 100871 Peoples R China

Based on the analysis of X^2 test of global land rainfall time series, it is found that the mean global land annual rainfall reduce significantly when El Nio events occur, and increase evidently in La Nia years. The impacts of ENSO on the winter and autumn precipitation over eastern China are also notable. Usually, the rainfall of winter and autumn over southern China increases, and that over northern China decreases in El Nio years. The effects of ENSO on summer rainfall are not so significant as on autumn and winter rainfall in China. The summer precipitation of area to the north of the Yellow River often decreases in El Nio years. No evident relationship is found between ENSO and spring rainfall in China.

关键词： ENSO global land China rainfall.

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Antarctic oscillation: concept and applications

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1998年第9期43卷 734-738页

作者： daoyi gong Shaowu Wang Peking Univ Dept Geophys Beijing 100871 Peoples R China

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set, empirical orthogonal function analysis and correlation analysis have been carried out. Antarctic oscillation index (AOI) is defined as the difference between the zonal-mean monthly sea level pressure departures of 40°S and 65°S. Regional surface temperature and precipitation over the extratropical Southern Hemisphere have a close relationship with AOI.

关键词： Antarctic oscillation air temperature precipitation.

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World Regionalization of Climate Change(1961–2010)

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2016年第3期7卷 216-226页

作者： Peijun Shi Shao Sun daoyi gong Tao Zhou State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education

Traditional climate classification or regionalization characterizes the mean state of climate condition, which cannot meet the demand of addressing climate change currently. We have developed a climate change classification method, as well as the fundamental principles, an indicator system, and mapping techniques of climate change regionalization. This study used annual mean temperature and total precipitation as climatic indices, and linear trend and variation change as change indices to characterize climate change quantitatively. The study has proposed a scheme for world climate change regionalization based on a half century of climate data(1961–2010). Level-I regionalization divides the world into 12 tendency zones based on the linear trend of climate, level-II regionalization resulted in 28 fluctuation regions based on the variation change of climate. Climate change regionalization provides a scientific basis for countries and regions to develop plans for adapting to climate change, especially for managing climate-related disaster or environmental risks.

关键词： Climate change Regionalization Temperature Precipitation Tendency Fluctuation World

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Significant Enhancement in Atmospheric Biweekly Disturbance over Northeast Asia during the Recent Warming Hiatus

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2016年第5期30卷 631-644页

作者： LI Sang gong daoyi QU Jingxuan State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 Laboratory of Research for Middle-High Latitude Circulation and East Asian Monsoon Changehun 130062

Based on daily 500-hPa geopotential height from ERA-Interim reanalysis data, this study analyzed the day-to-day circulation variance in cold season （October-March） by composite and correlation analysis. Two same-length time periods were compared, namely, the hiatus period （1999 2013） and the rapid warming period （1984-1998）. Spectral analysis revealed that over the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the most outstanding peak in the daily 500-hPa geopotential height variance was of quasi-biweekly timescale （about 10-20 days）, accounting for about 32% of the total variance. During the warming hiatus, quasi- biweekly disturbance （QBD） changed remarkably in Northeast Asia. On average, within the domain 42°- 50°N, 128°-142°E, the QBD variance changed from 1860 m2 in the rapid warming period to 2475 m2 in the hiatus period, increasing by about 33% and statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Lead-lag analysis showed that the QBD signal could be traced back by about 14 days, with an origin around the Ural Mountains. Then, the signal developed and propogated southeastward, with its location about 10 days prior to its peak in West Siberia, and about 6 days prior to its peak in the Sayan Mountains, and finally moving to Northeast Asia. By comparing the propagation process between the two periods, we found that the propagation paths were basically the same, but there were evident differences in the intensity of the signals. The intensification of QBD may have been related to the increased energy conversion from mean flow to QBD transients. The frequency of low-temperature extremes in negative QBD phases was much higher than under normal conditions or in positive phases. Associated with the enhanced QBD, the probability of extreme low temperature increased from 19% during the rapid warming period to 27% during the warming hiatus.

关键词： warming hiatus quasi-biweekly disturbance atmospheric circulation

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Using Climate Factors to Estimate Flood Economic Loss Risk

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2021年第5期12卷 731-744页

作者： Xinjia Hu Ming Wang Kai Liu daoyi gong Holger Kantz Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China School of National Security and Emergency Management Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Max-Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems 01187 DresdenGermany

Estimation of economic loss is essential for stakeholders to manage flood *** flooding events are closely related to extreme precipitation,which is influenced by large-scale climate *** the lagged influence of climate factors,we developed a flood-risk assessment framework and used Hunan Province in China as an example to illustrate the risk assessment *** main patterns of precipitation—as a connection between climate factors and flood economic losses—were extracted by the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)*** identified the correlative climate factors through crosscorrelation analysis and established a multiple stepwise linear regression model to forecast future precipitation *** assessment was done based on the main precipitation *** the economic dataset is limited,a Monte Carlo simulation was applied to simulate 1000-year flood loss events under each precipitation regime(rainy,dry,normal years)to obtain aggregate exceedance probability(AEP)and occurrence exceedance probability(OEP)*** found that precipitation has a strong influence on economic loss risk,with the highest risk in rainy *** economic development imbalances are the potential reason for the varying economic loss risks in different regions of Hunan *** the climate indices with at least several months prediction lead time are strong indicators in predicting precipitation,the framework we developed can estimate economic loss risk several months in advance.

关键词： Atmospheric and oceanic variables Flood risk Forecast-based economic loss assessment Hunan Province Risk management

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Significant relationship between spring AO and the summer rainfall along the Yangtze River

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2002年第11期47卷 948-951页

作者： gong daoyi ZHU Jinhong WANG Shaowu Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Institute of Resources ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China

The influence of spring AO on the summer rainfall along the Yangtze River is investigated. The long-term rainfall observations are filtered to remove the low-frequency variations longer than 10 years. The inter-annual components show a high correlation to AO in the last hundred years. The strongest correlation appears for May AO and summer rainfall with a value of -0.39, significant above the 99% confidence level. Associated with one standard deviation stronger May AO index, the rainfall over the Yangtze River to the southern Japan decreases by about 3%-9%, while, at the same time increases by about 3%-6% in the northern China and far-eastern Russia. The coherent changes in rainfall are significantly related to the East Asian summer jet stream in the upper troposphere. When there is stronger AO in spring, the jet stream tends to move polarward in summer, and leads the rainfall-belt to move northward too. That gives rise to a drier condition in the Yangtze River valley, wetter anomalies in northern China.

关键词： Yangtze River precipitation Arctic Oscillation (AO).

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Reconstruction of the western Pacific warm pool SST since 1644 AD and its relation to precipitation over East China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2009年第9期52卷 1436-1457页

作者： ZHANG ZiYin gong daoyi HE XueZhao GUO Dong FENG ShengHui State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology College of Resources Science and TechnologyBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

Based on coral proxies we reconstructed the western Pacific warm pool sea surface temperature (SST) since 1644 AD. High-frequency reconstructions are based on eight high-pass filtered coral series and raw reconstructions are derived from eight unfiltered coral series, respectively. Validation and comparison with other SST/temperature series show that the reconstructed warm pool SST is highly reliable. The leading periods of warm pool SST are ～2.1, ～2.3, ～2.9, ～3.6, ～3.8, and 80.7-year during the last ～360 years. The warm pool SST exhibits some obvious long-term trends: an upward trend of 0.04°C per century for the period of 1644–1825, while a decreasing trend of 0.24°C per century for the period of 1826–1885, and then a remarkable warming trend of 0.28°C per century taking place between 1886 and 2006. Especially, the SST shows the strongest trend of 0.67°C increase per century during the last 50 years, a warming unprecedented since 1644 AD. On interannual timescale, the connections between ENSO and the warm pool SST are robust during the reconstruction period. There are significant correlations between the warm pool SST and summer precipitation of the Yellow River basin and Huaihe River basin; the correlation coefficients are ?0.44 in reconstruction period (1880–1949 AD) and ?0.46 in instrumental period (1950–2005 AD) respectively. This relationship is also found between flood-drought index and the warm pool SST during the past 360 years, and their correlation coefficients are ?0.20 in reconstruction period and ?0.46 in instrumental period respectively, significant at the 0.01 level. On interdecadal timescale, this connection is more robust, and the correlation coefficient of the low-pass filtered components is ?0.42 during the whole period (1644–2000 AD). When the warm pool is warmer than normal, the precipitation is usually below the normal in the Yellow River and Huaihe River basin. On the contrary, when the warm pool is colder than the normal, there may be more

关键词： western Pacific warm pool coral reconstruct sea surface temperature

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Numerical analysis for contribution of the Tibetan Plateau to dust aerosols in the atmosphere over the East Asia

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Science China Earth Sciences 2013年第2期56卷 301-310页

作者： MAO Rui gong daoyi SHAO YaPing WU GuangJian BAO JingDong State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Department of Physics Beijing Normal University Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology University of CologneCologne D-50923Germany Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences

Although the Tibetan Plateau is widely thought as a potential dust source to the atmosphere over East Asia,little is known about the temporal changes of Tibetan dust activities and Tibetan dust source *** this study,we address these two issues by analyzing dust storm frequencies and aerosol index through remote sensing data and by means of numerical *** findings indicate that monthly dust profiles over the Tibetan Plateau vary significantly with *** the surface,dust concentration increases from October,reaches its maximum in February March,and then *** the middle to upper troposphere,dust concentration increases from January,reaches its maximum in May June,and decreases *** Tibetan dust sources are important contributors to dust in the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau,their contribution to dust in the troposphere over eastern China is *** contribution of Tibetan dust sources to dust in the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau decreases sharply with height,from 69% at the surface,40% in the lower troposphere,and 5% in the middle ***,the contribution shows seasonal changes,with dust sources at the surface at approximately 80% between November and May and 45% between June and September;in the middle and upper troposphere,dust sources are between 21% from February to March and less than 5% in the other ***,dust aerosols originating from the Tibetan Plateau contribute to less than 10% of dust in East Asia.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau dust aerosol aerosol index numerical dust modeling dust sources

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