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Use of Sw.T to Model Impact of Climate Chang. on Sediment Yield and Ag.icultural Productivity in w.stern Oreg.n, USA

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Open Journal of Modern Hydrolog. 2019年第2期9卷 54-88页

作者： g. w. mueller-warrant C. L. Phillips K. M. Trippe USDA-Ag.icultural Research Service Forage Seed and Cereals Research Unit Corvallis OR USA

Climate chang. predictions for the Pacific Northw.st reg.on of the United States of America include increasing.temperatures, intensification of w.nter precipitation, and a shift from mixed snow.rain to rain-dominant events, all of w.ich may increase the risk of soil erosion and threaten ag.icultural and ecolog.cal productivity. Here w. used the ag.icultural/environmental model Sw.T w.th climate predictions from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) “hig. CO2 emissions” scenario (RCP8.5) to study the impact of altered temperature and precipitation patterns on soil erosion and crop productivity in the w.llamette River Basin of w.stern Oreg.n. An ensemble of 10 climate models representing.the full rang. in temperature and precipitation predictions of CIMP5 produced substantial increases in sediment yield, w.th differences betw.en yearly averag.s for the final (2090-2099) and first (2010-2019) decades rang.ng.from 3.9 to 15.2 MT·ha-1 among.models. Sediment yield in the w.rst case model (CanESM2) corresponded to loss of 1.5 - 2.7 mm·soil·y-1, equivalent to potentially stripping.productive topsoil from the landscape in under tw. centuries. Most climate models predicted only small increases in precipitation (an averag. of 5.8% by the end of the 21st century) combined w.th larg. increases in temperature (an averag. of 0.05°.C·y-1). w. found a strong.correlation betw.en predicted temperature increases and sediment yield, w.th a reg.ession model combining.both temperature and precipitation effects describing.79% of the total variation in annual sediment yield. A critical component of response to increased temperature w.s reduced snow.all during.hig. precipitation events in the w.ntertime. Sw.T characterized years w.th less than basin-w.de averag.s of 20 mm of precipitation falling.as snow.as likely to experience severe sediment loss for multiple crops/land uses. Mid-elevation sub-basins that are projected to shift from rain-snow.tr

关键词： Climate Chang. Sediment Yield Soil w.ter Assessment Tool Sw.T Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 CIMP5 Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE

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