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Changes in Typhoon Regional Heavy Precipitation Events over China from 1960 to 2018

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第2期39卷 272-283页

作者： Yangmei TIAN John LMCBRIDE fumin ren Guoping LI Tian FENG College of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Honorary School of Earth ScienceUniversity of Melbourneand Research and Development DivisionBureau of MeteorologyMelbourneVIC 3010Australia Haikou Meteorological Observatory Haikou Meteorological BureauHaikou 570100China

In earlier studies,objective techniques have been used to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to precipitation(TCP)in a region,where the Tropical cyclone Precipitation Event(TPE)and the Regional Heavy Precipitation Events(RHPEs)are defined and investigated.In this study,TPE and RHPEs are combined to determine the Typhoon Regional Heavy Precipitation Events(TRHPEs),which is employed to evaluate the contribution of tropical cyclones to regional extreme precipitation events.Based on the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events(OITREE)and the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique(OSAT)to define TPE,temporal and spatial overlap indices are developed to identify the combined events as TRHPE.With daily precipitation data and TC best-track data over the western North Pacific from 1960 to 2018,86 TRHPEs have been identified.TRHPEs contribute as much as 20%of the RHPEs,but100%of events with extreme individual precipitation intensities.The major TRHPEs continued for approximately a week after tropical cyclone landfall,indicating a role of post landfall precipitation.The frequency and extreme intensity of TRHPEs display increasing trends,consistent with an observed positive trend in the mean intensity of TPEs as measured by the number of daily station precipitation observations exceeding 100 mm and 250 mm.More frequent landfalling Southeast and South China TCs induced more serious impacts in coastal areas in the Southeast and the South during 1990-2018 than1960-89.The roles of cyclone translation speed and"shifts"in cyclone tracks are examined as possible explanations for the temporal trends.

关键词： typhoon regional heavy precipitation events changes temporal and spatial characteristics

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Typhoon disaster risk zoning for China’s coastal area

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2022年第2期16卷 291-303页

作者： Jing ZHU Yi LU fumin ren John L McBRIDE Longbin YE Xiamen Key Laboratory of Straits Meteorology Xiamen Meteorological BureauXiamen 361012China Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China State Key Laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 10081China School of Earth Science (Honorary)University of MelbourneMelbourne 3010Australia Research and Development Division(Emeritus Scientist) Bureau of MeteorologyMelbourne 3010Australia

Previous studies on typhoon disaster risk zoning in China have focused on individual provinces or small-scale areas and lack county-level results.In this study,typhoon disaster risk zoning is conducted for China’s coastal area,based on data at the county level.Using precipitation and wind data for China and typhoon disaster and social data at the county level for China’s coastal area from 2004 to 2013,first we analyze the characteristics of typhoon disasters in China’s coastal area and then develop an intensity index of factors causing typhoon disasters and a comprehensive social vulnerability index.Finally,by combining the two indices,we obtain a comprehensive risk index for typhoon disasters and conduct risk zoning.The results show that the maximum intensity areas are mainly the most coastal areas of both Zhejiang and Guangdong,and parts of Hainan Island,which is similar to the distribution of typhoon disasters.The maximum values of vulnerability in the northwest of Guangxi,parts of Fujian coastal areas and parts of the Shandong Peninsula.The comprehensive risk index generally decreases from coastal areas to inland areas.The high-risk areas are mainly distributed over Hainan Island,south-western Guangdong,most coastal Zhejiang,the coastal areas between Zhejiang and Fujian and parts of the Shandong Peninsula.

关键词： typhoon disaster risk zoning comprehensive social vulnerability index China’s coastal area

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Comparison of Two Drought Indices in Studying Regional Meteorological Drought Events in China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第1期31卷 187-195页

作者： Yongmei WANG fumin ren Yilei ZHAO Yunjie LI Yuncheng Meteorological Observatory Yuncheng 044000 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 95810 Troops Beijing 100076 Zhuhai Meteorological Observatory Zhuhai 519000

The composite-drought index （CI）, improved weighted average of precipitation index （IWAP）, and the objective identification technique for regional extreme events （OITREE） were employed to detect China＇s regional meteorolo- gical drought events （CRMDEs） during 1961-2010. Compared with existing references, CI and IWAP both showed strong ability in identifying CRMDEs. Generally, the results of CI and IWAP were consistent, especially for extreme and severe CRMDEs. During 1961-2010, although the frequencies of extreme and severe CRMDEs based on C! and IWAP both showed weak decreasing trends, the two mean-integrated indices both showed increasing but not signifi- cant trends. However, the results of IWAP were more reasonable than CI＇s in two aspects. Firstly, the monthly fre- quency of extreme and severe CRMDEs based on IWAP showed a clear seasonal variation, which coincided with the seasonal variation of the East Asian monsoon over central-eastern China, whereas the frequency based on CI presen- ted a much weaker seasonal variation. Secondly, the two sets of results were sometimes inconsistent with respect to the start and end times of a CRMDE, and CRMDEs based on CI generally showed two unreasonable phenomena：（1） under non-drought conditions, a severe drought stage could suddenly occur in a large area; and （2） during the follow- ing period, drought could alleviate gradually in cases of non-precipitation. Comparative analysis suggested that the IWAP drought index possesses obvious advantages in detecting and monitoring regional drought events.

关键词： drought index regional drought China comparative analysis

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Establishment of an Objective Standard for the Definition of Binary Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第11期37卷 1211-1221页

作者： fumin ren Yanjun XIE Biwen YIN Mingyang WANG Guoping LI State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China Zhuzhou Meteorological Observatory Zhuzhou 412000China Qinhuangdao Meteorological Observatory Qinhuangdao 066000China

To develop an objective standard for defining binary tropical cyclones(BTCs)in the western North Pacific(WNP),two best-track datasets,from the China Meteorological Administration and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center,were adopted for statistical analyses on two important characteristics of BTCs-two TCs approaching each other,and counterclockwise spinning.Based on the high consistency between the two datasets,we established an objective standard,which includes a main standard for defining BTCs and a secondary standard for identifying typical/atypical BTCs.The main standard includes two requirements:two coexisting TCs are a pair of BTCs if(i)the separation distance is≤1800 km,and(ii)this separation maintains for at least 12 h.Meanwhile,the secondary standard defines a typical BTC as one for which there is at least one observation when the two TCs approach each other and spin counterclockwise simultaneously.Under the standard,the ratio of typical BTCs increases as the BTC duration increases or the minimum distance between the two TCs decreases.Then,using the JTWC dataset,it was found that there are 505 pairs of BTCs during the period 1951−2014,including 328 typical BTCs and 177 atypical BTCs,accounting for 65.0%and 35.0%of the total,respectively.In addition,a study of two extreme phenomena-the maximum approaching speed and the maximum counterclockwise angular velocity in typical BTCs-shows that the configuration of the circulation conditions and the distribution of the BTCs favor the formation of these extreme phenomena.

关键词： objective standard binary tropical cyclones Western North Pacific

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最小出货量保证下绿色产品协同创新收益分配决策

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管理评论 2024年第2期36卷 80-91页

作者：邢青松任阳阳邓富民重庆交通大学经济与管理学院重庆400074 四川大学商学院成都610065

专利买断或无保底条款的分成支付不利于兼具研发周期长与市场风险大的绿色产品协同创新。对此,赋予学研方绿色技术/专利以最小出货量保证,并考虑技术/专利从工程验证到商业化量产的风险公平分担,基于实物期权的或有资产理论,构建有无最... 详细信息

专利买断或无保底条款的分成支付不利于兼具研发周期长与市场风险大的绿色产品协同创新。对此,赋予学研方绿色技术/专利以最小出货量保证,并考虑技术/专利从工程验证到商业化量产的风险公平分担,基于实物期权的或有资产理论,构建有无最小出货量保证下的绿色产品协同创新价值评估模型。在此基础上,以绿色产品协同创新联盟整体利益最大化为决策目标,并充分考虑到各主体在绿色产品研发过程中的边际贡献大小,建立基于Shapley值法的绿色产品协同创新项目收益分配决策模型;进一步,通过具体算例与数值模拟,分析专利分成支付程度及绿色产品最小出货量的市场需求阈值,验证所构建绿色产品协同创新收益分配决策模型相比无最小出货量保证、无价值分配动态调整下的有效性及合理性。

关键词：最小出货量绿色协同创新实物期权收益分配合作博弈

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Sideswiping Tropical Cyclones and Their Associated Precipitation over China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第7期37卷 707-717页

作者： Tian FENG fumin ren Da-Lin ZHANG Guoping LI Wenyu QIU Hui YANG School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of MarylandCollege ParkMaryland 20742USA Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044China Henan Meteorological Observatory Zhengzhou 450003China

Tropical cyclone(TC)precipitation(TCP)has attracted considerable attention in recent decades because of its adverse socioeconomic impacts.In particular,considerable effort has been devoted to quantifying TCP and investigating the precipitation of TCs that make landfall.However,precipitation over land induced by TCs that do not make landfall(i.e.,offshore),the so-called"sideswiping"TCs(STCs),is an important component of TCP but has attracted little attention from the research community to date.Here,best-track and daily precipitation data from the China Meteorological Administration during the 59 years of 1960-2018 are used to study STC precipitation(STP).Results show that:(i)the annual number of STCs fluctuates significantly from 3 to 17,with a mean frequency of 8.8 STCs per year;(ii)there are decreasing trends in STC frequency and STP amount over the past 59 years;(iii)both STC frequency and STP are high from July to October,with maxima in August;(iv)the distribution of STP,covering most of China’s coastal regions,is dominated by intense STCs,and the annual STP decreases from southeast coastal regions to northwest inland areas,with a maximum value over the islands of Taiwan and Hainan;and(v)extreme STP events could appear not only over the island and coastal areas,but also over inland areas such as Zhumadian of Henan Province due to the influences of local orography and favorable largescale forcing.

关键词： coastal inland southeast

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Characteristics and Preliminary Causes of Tropical Cyclone Extreme Rainfall Events over Hainan Island

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第5期35卷 580-591页

作者： Xianling JIANG fumin ren Yunjie LI Wenyu QIU Zhuguo MA Qinbo CAI Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China State Key Laboratory on Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Hainan Meteorological Observatory Haikou 570203 China Zhuhai Meteorological Bureau Zhuhai 519000 China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China

The characteristics of tropical cyclone（TC） extreme rainfall events over Hainan Island from 1969 to 2014 are analyzed from the viewpoint of the TC maximum daily rainfall（TMDR） using daily station precipitation data from the Meteorological Information Center of the China Meteorological Administration, TC best-track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The frequencies of the TMDR reaching 50, 100 and 250 mm show a decreasing trend[-0.7（10 yr）^（-1）], a weak decreasing trend [-0.2（10 yr）^（-1）] and a weak increasing trend [0.1（10 yr）^（-1）], respectively. For seasonal variations, the TMDR of all intensity grades mainly occurs from July to October, with the frequencies of TMDR 50 mm and 100 mm peaking in September and the frequency of TMDR 250 mm [TC extreme rainstorm（TCER） events]peaking in August and September. The western region（Changjiang） of the Island is always the rainfall center, independent of the intensity or frequencies of different intensity grades. The causes of TCERs are also explored and the results show that topography plays a key role in the characteristics of the rainfall events. TCERs are easily induced on the windward slopes of Wuzhi Mountain, with the coordination of TC tracks and TC wind structure. A slower speed of movement, a stronger TC intensity and a farther westward track are all conducive to extreme rainfall events. A weaker northwestern Pacific subtropical high is likely to make the 500-h Pa steering flow weaker and results in slower TC movement, whereas a stronger South China Sea summer monsoon can carry a higher moisture flux. These two environmental factors are both favorable for TCERs.

关键词： Hainan Island tropical cyclones extreme rainfall events characteristics causes

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An application of the LTP＿DSEF model to heavy precipitation forecasts of landfalling tropical cyclones over China in 2018

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第1期63卷 27-36页

作者： Zuo JIA fumin ren Dalin ZHANG Chenchen DING Mingjen YANG Tian FENG Boyu CHEN Hui YANG State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of MarylandCollege ParkMaryland 20742USA Department of Atmospheric Sciences “National''Taiwan UniversityTaipei 10617China College of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China National Meteorological Center Beijing 100081China

Recently, a track-similarity-based Dynamical-Statistical Ensemble Forecast(LTP_DSEF) model has been developed in an attempt to predict heavy rainfall from Landfalling Tropical cyclones(LTCs). In this study, the LTP_DSEF model is applied to predicting heavy precipitation associated with 10 LTCs occurring over China in 2018. The best forecast scheme of the model with optimized parameters is obtained after testing 3452 different schemes for the 10 LTCs. Then, its performance is compared to that of three operational dynamical models. Results show that the LTP_DSEF model has advantages over the three dynamical models in predicting heavy precipitation accumulated after landfall, especially for rainfall amounts greater than 250 mm. The model also provides superior or slightly inferior heavy rainfall forecast performance for individual LTCs compared to the three dynamical models. In particular, the LTP_DSEF model can predict heavy rainfall with valuable threat scores associated with certain LTCs, which is not possible with the three dynamical models. Moreover, the model can reasonably capture the distribution of heavier accumulated rainfall, albeit with widespread coverage compared to observations. The preliminary results suggest that the LTP_DSEF model can provide useful forecast guidance for heavy accumulated rainfall of LTCs despite its limited variables included in the model.

关键词： Landfalling tropical cyclones Heavy precipitation forecasts LTP DSEF model

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‘贵紫麦1号’生长素内输基因GzLAX3-1B的克隆及生物信息学分析

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分子植物育种 2024年第6期22卷 1759-1766页

作者：安畅李鲁华杨文荟熊富敏王颖茜任明见徐如宏贵州大学农学院国家小麦改良中心贵州分中心贵阳550025

为了研究小麦生长素内输基因LAX3在小麦生长发育中的功能。本研究利用RT-PCR方法从‘贵紫麦1号’中获取GzLAX3-1B基因cDNA序列全长,并对该基因及其编码蛋白进行生物信息学分析。结果显示:Gz LAX3-1B基因开放阅读框(ORF)为1 587 bp,编码... 详细信息

为了研究小麦生长素内输基因LAX3在小麦生长发育中的功能。本研究利用RT-PCR方法从‘贵紫麦1号’中获取GzLAX3-1B基因cDNA序列全长,并对该基因及其编码蛋白进行生物信息学分析。结果显示:Gz LAX3-1B基因开放阅读框(ORF)为1 587 bp,编码528个氨基酸,具有PLN03074特异性位点,属于SLC5-6-like-sbd超家族。其编码的蛋白含有44个磷酸化位点和10个跨膜结构,是一种无信号肽的不稳定疏水性质膜蛋白。系统进化关系结果表明:‘贵紫麦1号’GzLAX3-1B基因与野生二粒小麦、大麦和油棕的亲缘关系最近。本研究结果为进一步开展小麦LAX3的生物学功能研究提供一定的理论基础和依据。

关键词：贵紫麦1号 GzLAX3-1B 基因克隆生物信息学分析

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Changes in Regional Heavy Rainfall Events in China during 1961–2012

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第5期32卷 704-714页

作者： ZOU Xukai ren fumin National Climate Center State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change

A new technique for identifying regional climate events, the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events（OITREE）, was applied to investigate the characteristics of regional heavy rainfall events in China during the period1961–2012. In total, 373 regional heavy rainfall events（RHREs） were identified during the past 52 years. The East Asian summer monsoon（EASM） had an important influence on the annual variations of China＇s RHRE activities, with a significant relationship between the intensity of the RHREs and the intensity of the Mei-yu. Although the increase in the frequency of those RHREs was not significant, China experienced more severe and extreme regional rainfall events in the 1990 s. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northern part of South China were the regions in the country most susceptible to extreme precipitation events. Some stations showed significant increasing trends in the southern part of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northern part of South China, while parts of North China, regions between Guangxi and Guangdong, and northern Sichuan showed decreasing trends in the accumulated intensity of RHREs.The spatial distribution of the linear trends of events＇ accumulated intensity displayed a similar so-called ＂southern flooding and northern drought＂ pattern over eastern China in recent decades.

关键词： China,regional heavy rainfall events

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