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基于数值模拟的2024年10月渤海和黄海沿岸海水倒灌事件成因分析

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海洋预报 2025年第1期42卷 1-10页

作者：傅赐福于福江董剑希高义李明杰国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室

2024年10月18—21日，渤海和黄海沿岸发生了罕见的强温带风暴潮过程，导致辽宁、河北和天津部分低洼地区出现较严重的海水倒灌，风暴增水分两个阶段，第一阶段由强冷空气引起，第二阶段由边缘波引起。为探究其成因，采用美国国家环境预... 详细信息

2024年10月18—21日，渤海和黄海沿岸发生了罕见的强温带风暴潮过程，导致辽宁、河北和天津部分低洼地区出现较严重的海水倒灌，风暴增水分两个阶段，第一阶段由强冷空气引起，第二阶段由边缘波引起。为探究其成因，采用美国国家环境预报中心再分析风场开展风暴潮数值模拟，渤海和黄海海域浮标位置处再分析风速的均方根误差为2.1 m/s，数值模拟的沿岸潮位站在第一阶段和第二阶段的最大增水平均相对误差分别为13.7%和8.2%，证明数值模拟可以准确还原风暴潮运动和传播，即边缘波自朝鲜半岛西部沿岸向我国黄海北部沿岸、渤海沿岸和黄海南部沿岸逆时针传播。采用数值模拟结果分析黄海南部断面和渤海海峡断面流量发现，两个断面第二阶段的海水流入量比第一阶段的流出量分别高出66%和75%，这也是第二阶段由边缘波引起的增水大、范围广且时间长的原因。此外，边缘波和风对第二阶段风暴潮的贡献占比分别为94%和6%，边缘波起绝对主导作用。

关键词：渤海和黄海沿岸强冷空气风暴潮海水倒灌边缘波数值模拟半封闭陆架海

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A typhoon-induced storm surge numerical model with GPU acceleration based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation grid

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第3期43卷 40-47页

作者： yuanyong Gao fujiang yu Cifu Fu Jianxi Dong Qiuxing Liu National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting Ministry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China

Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal *** and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important means to reduce storm surge-related *** surge numerical models are important for storm surge *** further improve the performance of the storm surge forecast models,we developed a numerical storm surge forecast model based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation(SCVT)*** model is based on shallow water equations in vector-invariant form,and is discretized by Arakawa C *** SCVT grid can not only better describe the coastline information but also avoid rigid transitions,and it has a better global consistency by generating high-resolution grids in the key areas through transition *** addition,the simulation speed of the model is accelerated by using the openACC-based GPU acceleration technology to meet the timeliness requirements of operational ensemble *** only takes 37 s to simulate a day in the coastal waters of *** newly developed storm surge model was applied to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in the coastal waters of *** hindcast experiments on the selected representative typhoon-induced storm surge processes indicate that the model can reasonably simulate the distribution characteristics of storm *** simulated maximum storm surges and their occurrence times are consistent with the observed data at the representative tide gauge stations,and the mean absolute errors are 3.5 cm and 0.6 h respectively,showing high accuracy and application prospects.

关键词： typhoon-induced storm surge numerical model GPU acceleration unstructured grid spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation(SCVT)

Dynamics of saltwater intrusion in the Modaomen Waterway of the Pearl River Estuary

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Science China Earth Sciences 2012年第11期55卷 1901-1918页

作者： WANG Biao ZHU JianRong WU Hui yu fujiang SONG XueJia State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research East China Normal UniversityShanghai 200062China National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081China

Observations indicate an abnormal characteristic of saltwater intrusion in the upper Modaomen Waterway of the Pearl River Estuary,i.e.,the maximum salinity occurs during the neap tide or the coming moderate tide instead of during the spring *** explore the associated dynamic mechanisms,a high resolution three-dimensional numerical model was set up based on the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model(FVCOM),which covered the entire river network,the Pearl River Estuary,and the adjacent *** experiments illustrated that the upper Modaomen Waterway is significantly influenced by the saltwater intrusion from the Hongwan Waterway,a narrow and shallow channel connecting the Modaomen Waterway to the *** topography,spring-neap tidal variation,local wind stress,and their interaction drive an up-estuary residual current in the Hongwan Waterway,which is much stronger during the neap tide than during the spring *** a result,more saltwater in the Hongwan Waterway is spilled over into the Modaomen Waterway during the neap tide or the coming moderate *** is the inherent dynamic mechanism why the saltwater intrusion in the upper Modaomen Waterway reaches its maximum during the neap tide or the coming moderate ***,we also found that the winter prevailing wind can pronouncedly enhance the saltwater intrusion in the Modaomen Waterway.

关键词： Pearl River Estuary Modaomen Waterway saltwater intrusion abnormal characteristic dynamic mechanism

Evaluation of potential hazards from teletsunami in China:Tidal observations of a teletsunami generated by the Chile 8.8 M_w earthquake

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第11期56卷 1108-1116页

作者： yu fujiang yuAN Ye ZHAO LianDa WANG PeiTao National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081 China

At 14:34 Beijing time on February 27,2010,an earthquake of M w 8.8 rocked the central coast of Chile.A teletsunami was triggered by the huge earthquake and then propagated across the entire Pacific in less than 24 *** initial tsunami wave arrived at the southeast coast of China at 16:20 on February 28 and was recorded in real time by a number of tidal gauges off China's Mainland and Taiwan *** teletsunami waves have never been recorded with such a broad geographical scope in China before this *** aim of the present work is to report the first description of sea-level oscillations generated by the Chile tsunami,and evaluate the potential hazards that teletsunami poses to the coast of *** results reveal that the east coast of Taiwan Province,Zhejiang Province and the north coast of Fujian Province are vulnerable to transoceanic *** addition,spectral and wavelet analysis of the recorded sea-level oscillations shows that "seiches" are easily excited by the resonance resulting from the interaction between the initial tsunami waves and local geometry (such as semi-enclosed bays and ports).The superimposition of the two oscillations would amplify the wave height further.

关键词：中国大陆 8级地震潮汐观测智利评估危险东南沿海实时记录

Typhoon storm surge ensemble forecast based on GPU technique

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2020年第5期39卷 77-86页

作者： Qiuxing Liu Jinrong Jiang fujiang yu Changkuan Zhang Jianxi Dong Xiaojiang Song yuzhu Wang College of Harbor Coastal and Offshore EngineeringHohai UniversityNanjing 210098China National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081China Computer Network Information Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China School of Information Engineering China University of GeosciencesBeijing 100083China

The accuracy of typhoon forecasts plays an important role in the prediction of storm *** uncertainty of a typhoon’s intensity and track means it is necessary to use an ensemble model to predict typhoon storm surges.A hydrodynamic model,which is operational at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,is applied to conduct surge simulations for South China coastal areas using the best track data with parametric wind and pressure *** results agree well with tidal gauge *** improve the calculation efficiency,the hydrodynamic model is modified using CUDA *** calculation results are almost the same as those from the original model,but the calculation time is reduced by more than 99%.A total of 150 typhoon cases are generated by combining 50 typhoon tracks from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts with three possible typhoon intensity *** surge ensembles are computed by the improved hydrodynamic *** on the simulated storm surges for the different typhoon cases,ensemble and probability forecast products can be *** mean ensemble results and probability forecast products are shown to agree well with the observed storm surge caused by Typhoon *** improved model is highly suitable for ensemble numerical forecasts,providing better forecast products for decision-making,and can be easily implemented to run on regular workstations.

关键词： typhoon storm surge ensemble forecast probability forecast CUDA Fortran

Observations and modelling of the travel time delay and leading negative phase of the 16 September 2015 Illapel,Chile tsunami

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2021年第11期40卷 11-30页

作者： Peitao Wang Zhiyuan Ren Lining Sun Jingming Hou Zongchen Wang Ye yuan fujiang yu Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting National Marine Environmental Forecasting CenterMinistry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China

The systematic discrepancies in both tsunami arrival time and leading negative phase(LNP)were identified for the recent transoceanic tsunami on 16 September 2015 in Illapel,Chile by examining the wave characteristics from the tsunami records at 21 Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami(DART)sites and 29 coastal tide gauge *** results revealed systematic travel time delay of as much as 22 min(approximately 1.7%of the total travel time)relative to the simulated long waves from the 2015 Chilean *** delay discrepancy was found to increase with travel *** was difficult to identify the LNP from the near-shore observation system due to the strong background noise,but the initial negative phase feature became more obvious as the tsunami propagated away from the source area in the deep *** determined that the LNP for the Chilean tsunami had an average duration of 33 min,which was close to the dominant period of the tsunami *** of the amplitude ratios to the first elevation phase were approximately 40%,with the largest equivalent to the first positive phase *** performed numerical analyses by applying the corrected long wave model,which accounted for the effects of seawater density stratification due to compressibility,self-attraction and loading(SAL)of the earth,and wave dispersion compared with observed tsunami *** attempted to accurately calculate the arrival time and LNP,and to understand how much of a role the physical mechanism played in the discrepancies for the moderate transoceanic tsunami *** mainly focus of the study is to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of each secondary physical effect to the systematic discrepancies using the corrected shallow water *** all of these effects into consideration,our results demonstrated good agreement between the observed and simulated *** can conclude that the corrected shallow water model can reduce the tsunami propagation speed and repro

关键词： 2015 Chilean tsunami travel time delay leading negative phase numerical modeling corrected long wave earth’s elasticity loading seawater density stratification Boussinesq dispersion

The role of tsunami buoy played in tsunami warning and its application in South China Sea

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Theoretical & Applied Mechanics Letters 2013年第3期3卷 23-26页

作者： Lianda Zhao fujiang yu Jingming Hou Peitao Wang Tingting Fan National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center(NMEFC) Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazard Forecasting(LoMF)

The tsunami was a sudden marine disasters. Tsunami waves can quickly spread to near-shore and cause the disaster after the tsunami. So it is very important of timely monitoring and early warning of the tsunami. After several unsuccessful tsunami forecasting, the United States developed tsunami buoy specifically for the early detection of tsunami waves. Tsunami buoy can not only be able to display occurrence of the tsunami, it is real time data but also be assimilated into the tsunami warning system, to improve the accuracy of the tsunami forecasting. Several tsunami events in the recent few years have proven the important role of the tsunami buoys. Subsequently, the tsunami warning system based on tsunami buoys was into regular operation. The system accurately predicted the results on March 11, 2011 Japan tsunami event. State Oceanic Administration （SOA）, China also deployed 2 tsunami buoys in the South China Sea （SCS）, which also played an important role in the warning process of Japan tsunami on March 11, 2011. National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center/State Oceanic Administration （NMEFC/SOA） will collaborate with Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration （PMEL/NOAA） to develop assimilation method making use of real time data of tsunami buoy and build a forecasting system in SCS in the future.

关键词： tsunami buoy warning

2018 Continues Record Global Ocean Warming

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第3期36卷 249-252页

作者： Lijing CHENG Jiang ZHU John ABRAHAM Kevin E.TRENBERTH John T.FASULLO Bin ZHANG fujiang yu Liying WAN Xingrong CHEN Xiangzhou SONG International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of St.Thomas School of Engineering National Center for Atmospheric Research Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Ocean Mega-Science Chinese Academy of Sciences National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Ministry of Natural Resources of China College of Oceanography Hohai University Bureau of Territorial and Spatial Planning Ministry of Natural Resources

The increasing heat-trapping gases emitted by human activities into the atmosphere produce an energy imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation that leads to global heating(Rhein et al.,2013;Trenberth et al.,2014;von Schuckmann et al.,2016).The vast majority of global warming heat ends up deposited in the world’s oceans,and ocean heat content(OHC)change is one of the best—if not the best—metric for climate change(Cheng et al.,2019).In 2018,continued record heat was measured in the Earth’s climate *** fact,2018 has set a new record of ocean heating,surpassing 2017,which was the previous warmest year ever recorded(Cheng et al.,2018)(Fig.1).

关键词： increasing heat-trapping activities imbalance

Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第2期37卷 137-142页

作者： Lijing CHENG John ABRAHAM Jiang ZHU Kevin ETRENBERTH John FASULLO Tim BOYER Ricardo LOCARNINI Bin ZHANG fujiang yu Liying WAN Xingrong CHEN Xiangzhou SONG yulong LIU Michael EMANN International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Ocean Mega-Science Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China University of St.Thomas School of EngineeringMinnesota 55105USA National Center for Atmospheric Research BoulderColorado 80307USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental InformationSilver SpringMaryland 20910USA Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Ministry of Natural Resources of ChinaBeijing 100081China College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China National Marine Data and Information Service Tianjin 300171China Department of Meteorology&Atmospheric Science The Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvania 16802USA State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of OceanographyHangzhou 310012China

Human-emitted greenhouse gases(GHGs)have resulted in a long-term and unequivocal warming of the planet(IPCC,2019).More than 90%of the excess heat is stored within the world's oceans,where it accumulates and causes inc... 详细信息

关键词： greenhouse warming ocean